AVZ Discussion 2022

[Skar]

Not if it's part of the security agreement that the USA get Manono. Which it likely is.

.... Kobold specifically have said as part of their proposed deal, they don't want to antagonise China and will compensate AVZ for ANY lost stake (Bezos, Gates etc have interests in China- Bezos took a very anti-trump stance on the Tarriff situation so its not like the US is one uniform entity without its own internal politics either, thats why I say Kobold are ONE potential way forward). In exchange Kobold have asked AVZ to agree to a framework... AVZ have agreed AND publicly stated its a non-binding framework. If AVZ management decide the framework has not led to an attractive position for SH, it doesn't have to proceed. Kobold obviously feel they can get to a place where all parties are happy.... given the project economics I do too (thats why I think SP guesses or premature accusations of low ball offers are not yet warranted).

What I assume this will all mean is once all the details are worked out, we will be made aware of a potential plan. Until then we are all just reading tea leaves on this one. What people do not realise though is AVZ while massive to us, is a little pebble of value in the grand ambitions of the players discussing things now, TRILLIONS of dollars for the them vs a few billion +/- on this deal is not going to get them out of Africa (maybe out of Manono until its more attractive to commit the capital but as long as their is value in it for them, they will pay).

 

[Sparrowhawk12]

That's been my initial thought this whole time, but it looks like Zijin is doing perfectly fine in the North without the help of an army and ready to scrape Lithium out the ground any day.

Ziljin has paid US$150+M in bribes. We don't pay bribes.

 

[aon]

.... Kobold specifically have said as part of their proposed deal, they don't want to antagonise China and will compensate AVZ for ANY lost stake (Bezos, Gates etc have interests in China- Bezos took a very anti-trump stance on the Tarriff situation so its not like the US is one uniform entity without its own internal politics either, thats why I say Kobold are ONE potential way forward). In exchange Kobold have asked AVZ to agree to a framework... AVZ have agreed AND publicly stated its a non-binding framework. If AVZ management decide the framework has not led to an attractive position for SH, it doesn't have to proceed. Kobold obviously feel they can get to a place where all parties are happy.... given the project economics I do too (thats why I think SP guesses or premature accusations of low ball offers are not yet warranted).

What I assume this will all mean is once all the details are worked out, we will be made aware of a potential plan. Until then we are all just reading tea leaves on this one. What people do not realise though is AVZ while massive to us, is a little pebble of value in the grand ambitions of the players discussing things now, TRILLIONS of dollars for the them vs a few billion +/- on this deal is not going to get them out of Africa (maybe out of Manono until its more attractive to commit the capital but as long as their is value in it for them, they will pay).

I like your post Scar, but Jen and (D...... & friends in high places) are not 'just reading t bags mate' imo, but happy (hoping you are right) to be proven wrong in due course, let's hope you are dialled in better than me for everyone's sake. Good luck to all, we have been s..... from all sides in my view.

 

[PhatCatz]

There is no fair value fairy mate, there is only what someone is willing to pay.
If you can find a buyer whos willing to pay more for Manono, please email management and set up a meeting.

Also @Mining8 is a very well respected poster from way way back, assuming it's the same guy from HC.
And I would say there are far more lurkers on TSE than regular posters, who aren't into chatting about everything day in day out like us losers do

Apologies if it’s come across as crude on my end. I need to take a rest from here. I understand the situation AVZ has found itself but in now way the board should entertain 40c offers.

ISCID route or fuck off if that’s the case. People bang on about that route taking forever etc etc. they do realise we can negotiate an exit post ISCID??? Our hand will be much much stronger with good legal title settled, a compensation claim in the back pocket and we can enter negotiations from a position of power. Sure it will piss off DRC but fuck then after the way they’ve treated our company.

It can still go to the USA but we’d have ownership sorted so that whole “risk” as they bang on about for fair compo won’t be a factor. It will also open up compensation for the north.

It boggles my mind people on X are crying over the ISCID route. These same people that probably bought in a mill shares at 2c…. They don’t give a fuck about anyone else but themselves. It’s the people who bought in above 80c range on avg that will lose a lot. They need to be looked after at the bare minimum. 40c won’t cut it.

 

[wombat74]

oh yes good idea, take the first offer that comes along because they always offer their best deal first.... seriously WTF, how about a recap, kobold have a NON BINDING offer, and thats all it is an offer. ZIJIN RIO or saudia arabia could/can and probebly will make an offer too. so how about you take a chill pill, kick back and relax and well see what other offers come to the table before the ICISD hearings become un-temporaily suspended and we air all the dishonesty to the world

This is obviously not directed at me ?

 

[Skar]

I like your post Scar, but Jen and (D...... & friends in high places) are not 'just reading t bags mate' imo, but happy (hoping you are right) to be proven wrong in due course, let's hope you are dialled in better than me for everyone's sake. Good luck to all, we have been s..... from all sides in my view.

Well I for one am not plugged in to anything, I went to the investor road show in Sydney a few years ago when this mess first began. If your insinutation is that Jen and Co had/have or acted on non-public knowledge back when we were a public traded company... thats a big accusation. I just think people have been wrong more than they have been right and some people are just rainmakers (not directed at anyone specific) and will tell you its going to rain, its going to rain, until finally it does, then say "see I told you".

I am commenting as an outsider giving my opinion, looking at the world and trying to predict trends. Investment in Africa is a bit of an emerging thematic right now.

Above all, I trust our current management, I have been in this long enough to have been betrayed by the previous one (Klaus\airguide\superninja).

 

[Thaz]

Surely shareholders aren't going to forget that the UAE are more than likely looking to come to the table as well??

A first offer/bid is always a great way to get the party started.

It only takes one to start a bidding war.

And as always. With negotiation. Never accept the first offer. I have faith that Nigel would do us justice

 

[Skar]

This is obviously not directed at me ?

I wouldn't take it personally... Kobold have a nonbinding framework AVZ have agreed to, not an offer i.e if we can get these conditions met, between these parties, within this time, lets do a deal. Lot of ifs and maybes to be worked out along the way to an offer IMO.

After all, we are 6 months in now.

 

[Azzler]

I don't think anyone has claimed 40c is an acceptable offer, I think maybe we're assuming things here in our arguments.
I also do not believe that anyone outside of the BoD or Kobald knows what the offer on the table is, and I suspect that an actual value has not yet been offered and it's likely an agreed ballpark range that they are now negotiating on.
For the record that's just my belief, not based on solid info, but you know, I stick my nose in the wind as much as possible.

From the signed MoU we all saw, I would make the assumption that both parties are reasonably confident they can eventually agree on the terms, including the price, and I do not believe Nigel and his team would ever sell us out.

It's down to leverage and the art of the deal imo.
Sure we might speculate that Kobald would pay up to $5 if they had to, or that AVZ would take $1 if they had to, so who blinks first?
If Kobald is the only one offering, they can offer the minimum.
Maybe AVZ say no thank you and Kobald say ok ok, we'll pay more.
Or maybe they just tell AVZ the offer stands, and now Nigel has to find another trick to play... who knows.

It's ok to speculate on price, but once people start making demands or threats then things are just getting stupid and emotional.

Let's just wait and see what kind of offer is yet to be made. It might be ok after all.

 

[Winenut]

Apologies if it’s come across as crude on my end. I need to take a rest from here. I understand the situation AVZ has found itself but in now way the board should entertain 40c offers.

ISCID route or fuck off if that’s the case. People bang on about that route taking forever etc etc. they do realise we can negotiate an exit post ISCID??? Our hand will be much much stronger with good legal title settled, a compensation claim in the back pocket and we can enter negotiations from a position of power. Sure it will piss off DRC but fuck then after the way they’ve treated our company.

It can still go to the USA but we’d have ownership sorted so that whole “risk” as they bang on about for fair compo won’t be a factor. It will also open up compensation for the north.

It boggles my mind people on X are crying over the ISCID route. These same people that probably bought in a mill shares at 2c…. They don’t give a fuck about anyone else but themselves. It’s the people who bought in above 80c range on avg that will lose a lot. They need to be looked after at the bare minimum. 40c won’t cut it.

Totally agree here on ICSID

The whole legal avenue must continue

Proving up title, putting some metrics around the numbers/value, powerful, powerful, powerful bargaining chip

Absolutely correct negotiations can take place and deals can be made any time up to, during and after ICSID

ICSID is the one thing that can bring forward and help facilitate a meaningful and fair deal

Management dropping the legals would be a massive commercial blunder

It is only when everything is done and dusted and appropriate funds firmly in all shareholders bank accounts that the legal switch gets turned off

Anything else is a complete folly

 

[DiscoDanNZ]

As a reformed car salesman I can confirm that the first offer is the one that gets shopped around

 

[Shire]

Did I miss something? Why has everyone all of a sudden got worked up about an offer of 40c? As far as I know the only time that number has been put out was in The Australian's article in March which referenced $1.5B USD + royalties and a more recent dubious post on HC that very much looked like it was written by AI and referenced a Jane Carter at Macquarie Group who doesn't exist.

 

[Sparrowhawk12]

Did I miss something? Why has everyone all of a sudden got worked up about an offer of 40c? As far as I know the only time that number has been put out was in The Australian's article in March which referenced $1.5B USD + royalties and a more recent dubious post on HC that very much looked like it was written by AI and referenced a Jane Carter at Maquarie Group who doesn't exist.

Agree. This is hopefully my last post on SP pay-out speculation. 40c is BS. Trust Nige, Board & DLA Piper. They know what we all invested, the ATH, the risks and the asset value over LOM modelled over a myriad of scenarios. IMO Time to stop speculating. Br Sparrowhawk12.

 

[JNRB]

Not if it's part of the security agreement that the USA get Manono. Which it likely is.

That still only works IF AVZ AGREE TO IT.
not gonna agree to getting bumfukd by Kobold if CATH sitting there with a 10B cheque.

I don't think that will be the outcome. I personally think Kobold will pay a fair price.

 

[wombat74]

Agree. This is hopefully my last post on SP pay-out speculation. 40c is BS. Trust Nige, Board & DLA Piper. They know what we all invested, the ATH, the risks and the asset value over LOM modelled over a myriad of scenarios. IMO Time to stop speculating. Br Sparrowhawk12.

Agree . And up until now Nigel has never considered the punter's recommendations/ advice , and he sure as sh1t ain't gonna start considering it now .

 

[Runningmate]

I previously asked but can anyone explain the steps AFTER they get and accept an offer?

How are you all guaranteed to get that money?

Can AVZ not just have those funds and use them as they like?

 

[Mouthpiecenomnom]

I wouldn’t mind delving a little bit more into this supposed royalties sweetener that KoBolds alleged “initial” offer contained. I wouldn’t be completely against inclusion of such thing as long as it’s legally watertight and in no way can be removed from Manono. I’m sceptical of royalties given it’s not money in the hands initially but it could create long term value for holders. Say 2% of revenue? Only issue is that there can be many ways to like… not pay or similar? How would such a thing be locked into the lithium and tin extracted from that very specific resource? Can see a world where mining titles/projects or companies are cut and sold, desolved etc that leaves us hanging onto our balls waiting for payments.

Yes. This is why I am hoping kobold shares are on the table.

 

[Azzler]

That still only works IF AVZ AGREE TO IT.
not gonna agree to getting bumfukd by Kobold if CATH sitting there with a 10B cheque.

I don't think that will be the outcome. I personally think Kobold will pay a fair price.

It's the drc government who are doing the agreeing, not avz.
Cath aren't going to be paying anyone anything if the drc government tell them Manono south is only for the USA.
And it looks like the drc government have just said that Manono south is only for the USA.

 

[PhatCatz]

.... Kobold specifically have said as part of their proposed deal, they don't want to antagonise China and will compensate AVZ for ANY lost stake (Bezos, Gates etc have interests in China- Bezos took a very anti-trump stance on the Tarriff situation so its not like the US is one uniform entity without its own internal politics either, thats why I say Kobold are ONE potential way forward). In exchange Kobold have asked AVZ to agree to a framework... AVZ have agreed AND publicly stated its a non-binding framework. If AVZ management decide the framework has not led to an attractive position for SH, it doesn't have to proceed. Kobold obviously feel they can get to a place where all parties are happy.... given the project economics I do too (thats why I think SP guesses or premature accusations of low ball offers are not yet warranted).

What I assume this will all mean is once all the details are worked out, we will be made aware of a potential plan. Until then we are all just reading tea leaves on this one. What people do not realise though is AVZ while massive to us, is a little pebble of value in the grand ambitions of the players discussing things now, TRILLIONS of dollars for the them vs a few billion +/- on this deal is not going to get them out of Africa (maybe out of Manono until its more attractive to commit the capital but as long as their is value in it for them, they will pay).

That last part is where my mind is at but maybe in a slightly different view. The minerals security pact or whatever you want to call is is for DRC commodities not Manono specifically. Some discussions on here (at least the feeling I get) is that the whole minerals for security deal is based on Manono alone.

The pact will go ahead with or without a Manono so the “it as to go to USA under the security deal” is a BIG call and I feel as you stated in the grand scheme of things Manono whilst huge isn’t the be all and end all in the DRC. It’s a fraction of mineral wealth.

I’d rather we mine this but that will be difficult, second option would be to sell this to the highest bidder no matter who they are.

 

[Doc]

I previously asked but can anyone explain the steps AFTER they get and accept an offer?

How are you all guaranteed to get that money?

Can AVZ not just have those funds and use them as they like?

“you all” you like to ask questions for a non holder