Here is a post I hope you will find interesting as I asked Grok and ChatGPT about their analysis of the situation.
KoBold reportedly has $1B USD in cash now, prepared to invest that into Manono according to the numerous news articles.
That would translate into 0.43 AUD/share, far below AVZ's "fair value". If Nigel and the team truly are negotiating towards a "fair value", it would equate to a higher price.
I did some research with Grok (X AI) and ChatGPT because I was interested in their analysis. What I find interesting about their analysis is that it has changed a lot since the last time I asked. Around December this year, I wrote a bit with Grok, and it believed a takeover (TO) would be put around 0.30–0.40 cents/share. Even though the price/share is still undervalued in my opinion, it shows that we are going in the right direction with a resolution hopefully within 6–12 months, IMO.
Grok believes fair value sits between 1.35–1.50 AUD and believes this will be the TO price.
ChatGPT believes fair value is 0.70–1.00 AUD with a TO in this area as well.
For curiosity's sake, I used the AI to calculate what different TO cash offers would result in price/share:
- 1B USD = 0.43 AUD
- 2B USD = 0.85 AUD
- 3B USD = 1.28 AUD/share
- 4B USD = 1.70 AUD
- 5B USD = 2.13 AUD
I also asked Grok to find out how this could get financed if we were to receive a 4–5B USD TO since KoBold currently lack the reqcuired cash for such a deal. Here is the analysis:
Most Likely Approach
KoBold will likely use a combination of strategies. A realistic scenario might involve:
Raising $2–$3 billion USD through a new equity round, leveraging their high-profile investors and the strategic importance of lithium.
Securing $1–$2 billion USD in debt or government-backed financing, especially if U.S.-DRC negotiations progress.
Partnering with a major miner or battery company for the remaining $1–$2 billion USD, sharing the project’s risks and rewards.
Is this the part where CATH comes in, LOL?
Finally, I also asked if Grok and ChatGPT believe KoBold will offer more than 1B USD for curiositys sake?
REPLY
Yes, KoBold is likely to offer more than $1 billion USD for AVZ Minerals' 75% stake in the Manono lithium project. The current $1 billion USD offer is significantly below the estimated fair value of $5.15–$7.09 billion USD, which could lead to backlash from AVZ shareholders. Shareholder unrest and threats of a class action lawsuit may pressure KoBold to increase their offer to avoid delays or legal challenges. The DRC government might also push for a higher amount to approve the deal, given the project's strategic importance. KoBold’s financial capacity and strategic motivations, backed by U.S. government support, make it feasible for them to offer $2–$4 billion.
What an absolute tool!
