G'day Lollipop,Here is a post I hope you will find interesting as I asked Grok and ChatGPT about their analysis of the situation.
KoBold reportedly has $1B USD in cash now, prepared to invest that into Manono according to the numerous news articles.
That would translate into 0.43 AUD/share, far below AVZ's "fair value". If Nigel and the team truly are negotiating towards a "fair value", it would equate to a higher price.
I did some research with Grok (X AI) and ChatGPT because I was interested in their analysis. What I find interesting about their analysis is that it has changed a lot since the last time I asked. Around December this year, I wrote a bit with Grok, and it believed a takeover (TO) would be put around 0.30–0.40 cents/share. Even though the price/share is still undervalued in my opinion, it shows that we are going in the right direction with a resolution hopefully within 6–12 months, IMO.
Grok believes fair value sits between 1.35–1.50 AUD and believes this will be the TO price.
ChatGPT believes fair value is 0.70–1.00 AUD with a TO in this area as well.
For curiosity's sake, I used the AI to calculate what different TO cash offers would result in price/share:
I also asked Grok to find out how this could get financed if we were to receive a 4–5B USD TO since KoBold currently lack the reqcuired cash for such a deal. Here is the analysis:
- 1B USD = 0.43 AUD
- 2B USD = 0.85 AUD
- 3B USD = 1.28 AUD/share
- 4B USD = 1.70 AUD
- 5B USD = 2.13 AUD
Most Likely Approach
KoBold will likely use a combination of strategies. A realistic scenario might involve:
Raising $2–$3 billion USD through a new equity round, leveraging their high-profile investors and the strategic importance of lithium.
Securing $1–$2 billion USD in debt or government-backed financing, especially if U.S.-DRC negotiations progress.
Partnering with a major miner or battery company for the remaining $1–$2 billion USD, sharing the project’s risks and rewards.
Is this the part where CATH comes in, LOL?
Finally, I also asked if Grok and ChatGPT believe KoBold will offer more than 1B USD for curiositys sake?
REPLY
Yes, KoBold is likely to offer more than $1 billion USD for AVZ Minerals' 75% stake in the Manono lithium project. The current $1 billion USD offer is significantly below the estimated fair value of $5.15–$7.09 billion USD, which could lead to backlash from AVZ shareholders. Shareholder unrest and threats of a class action lawsuit may pressure KoBold to increase their offer to avoid delays or legal challenges. The DRC government might also push for a higher amount to approve the deal, given the project's strategic importance. KoBold’s financial capacity and strategic motivations, backed by U.S. government support, make it feasible for them to offer $2–$4 billion.
so I can sign off here and hopefully not look at TSE againThis is the kind of cash that KoBold can associate with (not including the other investors they have recently mentioned)
Jack Ma worth US$28 billion
Bill Gates worth US$107 billion
Jeff Bezos worth US$211 billion
BHP worth AU$190 billion
RIO worth US$102 billion
Elon Musk worth US$327 billion
Total = Around $1 trillion
I think AVZ’s 75% ownership is still to be proven in the ICC which could take some time and I wouldn’t be surprised if KoBold use this as another excuse for a discount as well as wanting AVZ to sign a deal before the ICC proves beyond doubt our full ownership of 75% of Dathcom
I also suspect they will get the fat thief to sign the agreement as quick as possible so they can move fast with a negotiated offer. I personally wouldn’t lose any sleep if the fat idiot’s plane went down on the way to the US for the signing. For three years I’ve stayed positive and for some reason KoBold comes along and I just don’t trust them
Time for me to drop a few mercyndol and neurophen plus so I can sign off here and hopefully not look at TSE again at least until tomorrow. Pity your not here to mix me a few of your famous 2 litre jug mixes of margaritas to wash them down @Xerof
Kobold can say whatever they want, I'm sure I won't be the only shareholder who'll be happy to leave some money in the AVZ coffers to sue the fuck out of zijin for damages. Fuck those lowlife Chinese assholes to hell and back.
I can't find any of these supposed lines of text on the interwebs, nor a mining analyst going by the name of Jane Carter who works are Mac Group. I question the validity of it all. Just seems like some mashup of the supposed offer brought forward and chuck in a few bits of pieces of recent news to try to spin a story. I hope that's the bloody case! 65c is a fucking joke... can't even get a family holiday out of that shitbox offer after being subjected to 3 years of financial stress.$1.5b USD / 3.5b shares = $0.42 USD
Looks like The Australian was right. It better have royalties. Nigel securing himself a job too won’t go down well if there isn't residual benefits for shareholders at that valuation.
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Surely we can we Sue the Shit outta them for "Pain & Suffering" if nothing else SamKobold can say whatever they want, I'm sure I won't be the only shareholder who'll be happy to leave some money in the AVZ coffers to sue the fuck out of zijin for damages. Fuck those lowlife Chinese assholes to hell and back.
Fuck that going to DRC...........thats like Nortbridge on steroids ( the WA dudes will know what i mean )The cheques are just those rediculously large ceremonial novelty cheques, the real purpose of the ceremony is pissing on the tainted ground.
Hey Dan, after we Piss on them, how about we give them aThe cheques are just those rediculously large ceremonial novelty cheques, the real purpose of the ceremony is pissing on the tainted ground.
so I can sign off here and hopefully not look at TSE again
Been hearing that for so long i cant remember
Admit it..........you cant stay away .
You really love us dont you
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It's worth remembering that Kobold are spring chickens and don't actually have a business model. They have some AI that they think gives them competent advantage, but thay could just as well mean knowing truly how much a great deposit is worth.Important to remember KoBold are all in on exploration, and their business model is all about capitalising off the back of exploration success. They don’t want to develop anything and simply want partners or sales to deal with that.
They see more at this deposit is my view.
RIO.
Shall we book the Story Bridge Nells ?G'day Lollipop,
I'm pretty sure the $1billion is to invest in building the mine, not to buy us out. Please check.
Cheers,
Nells xx
Can you also ask Tim when we are getting our fkn money.Just to preface this, I am keen for the most beneficial outcome possible, been waiting a very long time like all of you
But:
$1b investment appears to be to get the mine going so they can get the product to the west.
We were looking at circa $1b with investments from Cath and other parties to build the mine.
Yes, the leaked info from the last Kobold rumour there was a $1.5b takeover offer.
But this was the first offer and I am sure Nige has been working hard to get something better.
But I am still unable to fathom the people that think we are getting $2-$4 or beyond?
Our highest trade on ASX was like $1.31 or $1.35 intraday.
This had a ML being issued imminently priced in, and us proceeding to mine.
What has happened since then to increase the perceived value?
Asset hasn't improved, market hasn't improved, we haven't been able to progress anything.
I very much doubt we will get hurt money just because we have had to wait all these years.
But happy to be proven wrong.
Tim will tell.
So the world's wealthiest are scrambling to secure AVZ believing it is only worth $1:35 aud?Just to preface this, I am keen for the most beneficial outcome possible, been waiting a very long time like all of you
But:
$1b investment appears to be to get the mine going so they can get the product to the west.
We were looking at circa $1b with investments from Cath and other parties to build the mine.
Yes, the leaked info from the last Kobold rumour there was a $1.5b takeover offer.
But this was the first offer and I am sure Nige has been working hard to get something better.
But I am still unable to fathom the people that think we are getting $2-$4 or beyond?
Our highest trade on ASX was like $1.31 or $1.35 intraday.
This had a ML being issued imminently priced in, and us proceeding to mine.
What has happened since then to increase the perceived value?
Asset hasn't improved, market hasn't improved, we haven't been able to progress anything.
I very much doubt we will get hurt money just because we have had to wait all these years.
But happy to be proven wrong.
Tim will tell.
This posted on the crapper, by someone saying there's a lot of fake stories around....so I bloody well hope this isn't accurate
In fact, drilling has been done to improve the metrics significantly.Just to preface this, I am keen for the most beneficial outcome possible, been waiting a very long time like all of you
But:
$1b investment appears to be to get the mine going so they can get the product to the west.
We were looking at circa $1b with investments from Cath and other parties to build the mine.
Yes, the leaked info from the last Kobold rumour there was a $1.5b takeover offer.
But this was the first offer and I am sure Nige has been working hard to get something better.
But I am still unable to fathom the people that think we are getting $2-$4 or beyond?
Our highest trade on ASX was like $1.31 or $1.35 intraday.
This had a ML being issued imminently priced in, and us proceeding to mine.
What has happened since then to increase the perceived value?
Asset hasn't improved, market hasn't improved, we haven't been able to progress anything.
I very much doubt we will get hurt money just because we have had to wait all these years.
But happy to be proven wrong.
Tim will tell.
Hey Carlos,$1.5b USD / 3.5b shares = $0.42 USD
Looks like The Australian was right. It better have royalties. Nigel securing himself a job too won’t go down well if there isn't residual benefits for shareholders at that valuation.
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