AVZ Discussion 2022

[Flekman11]

Here is a post I hope you will find interesting as I asked Grok and ChatGPT about their analysis of the situation.

KoBold reportedly has $1B USD in cash now, prepared to invest that into Manono according to the numerous news articles.
That would translate into 0.43 AUD/share, far below AVZ's "fair value". If Nigel and the team truly are negotiating towards a "fair value", it would equate to a higher price.
I did some research with Grok (X AI) and ChatGPT because I was interested in their analysis. What I find interesting about their analysis is that it has changed a lot since the last time I asked. Around December this year, I wrote a bit with Grok, and it believed a takeover (TO) would be put around 0.30–0.40 cents/share. Even though the price/share is still undervalued in my opinion, it shows that we are going in the right direction with a resolution hopefully within 6–12 months, IMO.

Grok believes fair value sits between 1.35–1.50 AUD and believes this will be the TO price.
ChatGPT believes fair value is 0.70–1.00 AUD with a TO in this area as well.
For curiosity's sake, I used the AI to calculate what different TO cash offers would result in price/share:

• 1B USD = 0.43 AUD
• 2B USD = 0.85 AUD
• 3B USD = 1.28 AUD/share
• 4B USD = 1.70 AUD
• 5B USD = 2.13 AUD

I also asked Grok to find out how this could get financed if we were to receive a 4–5B USD TO since KoBold currently lack the reqcuired cash for such a deal. Here is the analysis:


Most Likely Approach
KoBold will likely use a combination of strategies. A realistic scenario might involve:
Raising $2–$3 billion USD through a new equity round, leveraging their high-profile investors and the strategic importance of lithium.
Securing $1–$2 billion USD in debt or government-backed financing, especially if U.S.-DRC negotiations progress.
Partnering with a major miner or battery company for the remaining $1–$2 billion USD, sharing the project’s risks and rewards.
Is this the part where CATH comes in, LOL?


Finally, I also asked if Grok and ChatGPT believe KoBold will offer more than 1B USD for curiositys sake?

REPLY
Yes, KoBold is likely to offer more than $1 billion USD for AVZ Minerals' 75% stake in the Manono lithium project. The current $1 billion USD offer is significantly below the estimated fair value of $5.15–$7.09 billion USD, which could lead to backlash from AVZ shareholders. Shareholder unrest and threats of a class action lawsuit may pressure KoBold to increase their offer to avoid delays or legal challenges. The DRC government might also push for a higher amount to approve the deal, given the project's strategic importance. KoBold’s financial capacity and strategic motivations, backed by U.S. government support, make it feasible for them to offer $2–$4 billion.

KoBolds own statement says that they are ready to deploy more than $1B to bring Manono lithium to western markets. No offence but maybe read the statement. Thats clearly development expenditure. Nothing to do with any sort of TO offers.

Feed AI dumb shit and you may get dumb shit back.

 

[Spikerama]

Here is a post I hope you will find interesting as I asked Grok and ChatGPT about their analysis of the situation.

KoBold reportedly has $1B USD in cash now, prepared to invest that into Manono according to the numerous news articles.
That would translate into 0.43 AUD/share, far below AVZ's "fair value". If Nigel and the team truly are negotiating towards a "fair value", it would equate to a higher price.
I did some research with Grok (X AI) and ChatGPT because I was interested in their analysis. What I find interesting about their analysis is that it has changed a lot since the last time I asked. Around December this year, I wrote a bit with Grok, and it believed a takeover (TO) would be put around 0.30–0.40 cents/share. Even though the price/share is still undervalued in my opinion, it shows that we are going in the right direction with a resolution hopefully within 6–12 months, IMO.

Grok believes fair value sits between 1.35–1.50 AUD and believes this will be the TO price.
ChatGPT believes fair value is 0.70–1.00 AUD with a TO in this area as well.
For curiosity's sake, I used the AI to calculate what different TO cash offers would result in price/share:

• 1B USD = 0.43 AUD
• 2B USD = 0.85 AUD
• 3B USD = 1.28 AUD/share
• 4B USD = 1.70 AUD
• 5B USD = 2.13 AUD

I also asked Grok to find out how this could get financed if we were to receive a 4–5B USD TO since KoBold currently lack the reqcuired cash for such a deal. Here is the analysis:


Most Likely Approach
KoBold will likely use a combination of strategies. A realistic scenario might involve:
Raising $2–$3 billion USD through a new equity round, leveraging their high-profile investors and the strategic importance of lithium.
Securing $1–$2 billion USD in debt or government-backed financing, especially if U.S.-DRC negotiations progress.
Partnering with a major miner or battery company for the remaining $1–$2 billion USD, sharing the project’s risks and rewards.
Is this the part where CATH comes in, LOL?


Finally, I also asked if Grok and ChatGPT believe KoBold will offer more than 1B USD for curiositys sake?

REPLY
Yes, KoBold is likely to offer more than $1 billion USD for AVZ Minerals' 75% stake in the Manono lithium project. The current $1 billion USD offer is significantly below the estimated fair value of $5.15–$7.09 billion USD, which could lead to backlash from AVZ shareholders. Shareholder unrest and threats of a class action lawsuit may pressure KoBold to increase their offer to avoid delays or legal challenges. The DRC government might also push for a higher amount to approve the deal, given the project's strategic importance. KoBold’s financial capacity and strategic motivations, backed by U.S. government support, make it feasible for them to offer $2–$4 billion.

I think a clear distinction needs to be made about what this 1 billion, Kobold has to invest relates to.

I understood it to be they would invest 1 billion to develop the mine project, (ie; Manono) after AVZ has been compensated. Not in to AVZ or Dathcom. So you cant divide the SOI into 1 billion and get a pps. That's just bonkers.

 

[Hudnut]

$1.5b USD / 3.5b shares = $0.42 USD

Looks like The Australian was right. It better have royalties. Nigel securing himself a job too won’t go down well if there isn't residual benefits for shareholders at that valuation.

Kobold's release: ".. will enable KoBold to rapidly deploy more than $1B to bring the Manono Lithium to Western markets"

The Australian: "The sale price remains unclear, but the deal is set to trigger an initial investment of more than $US1bn ($1.55bn) in Manono from KoBold"

From the other article:
"The Framework Agreement Structure
KoBold's entry represents a potential breakthrough in this protracted dispute. The company has proposed a framework agreement that would:

1. Compensate AVZ Minerals for its initial exploration work and partial claim settlement
2. Divide the massive deposit geographically – with KoBold developing the southern portion while Zijin retains rights to the northern section
3. Commit $1 billion for project development over a 5-year timeframe
4. Establish clear boundaries and operational independence between the two zones"

It looks to me like $1B is the investment as per Spike's post, not the sale/compensation price.
I look forward to hearing what those are.

 

[Carlos Danger]

I think a clear distinction needs to be made about what this 1 billion, Kobold has to invest relates to.

I understood it to be they would invest 1 billion to develop the mine project, (ie; Manono) after AVZ has been compensated. Not in to AVZ or Dathcom. So you cant divide the SOI into 1 billion and get a pps. That's just bonkers.

Kobold's release: ".. will enable KoBold to rapidly deploy more than $1B to bring the Manono Lithium to Western markets"

The Australian: "The sale price remains unclear, but the deal is set to trigger an initial investment of more than $US1bn ($1.55bn) in Manono from KoBold"

From the other article:
"The Framework Agreement Structure
KoBold's entry represents a potential breakthrough in this protracted dispute. The company has proposed a framework agreement that would:

1. Compensate AVZ Minerals for its initial exploration work and partial claim settlement
2. Divide the massive deposit geographically – with KoBold developing the southern portion while Zijin retains rights to the northern section
3. Commit $1 billion for project development over a 5-year timeframe
4. Establish clear boundaries and operational independence between the two zones"

It looks to me like $1B is the investment as per Spike's post, not the sale/compensation price.
I look forward to hearing what those are.

$1.5b USD / 3.5b shares = $0.42 USD

Looks like The Australian was right. It better have royalties. Nigel securing himself a job too won’t go down well if there isn't residual benefits for shareholders at that valuation.

I was referring to the valuation reported by The Australian in March which is $1.5b USD plus a royalty not the $1b USD in KoBold's announcement

https://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/mining-energy/perthbased-avz-minerals-congo-lithium-hopes-hinge-on-us-envoys-talks/news-story/8ef1498e0d201415a5c0286718bac360?amp

Perth-based AVZ Minerals’ Congo lithium hopes hinge on US envoy’s talks​

Brad Thompson

AVZ and KoBold representatives want to nail down a deal on the future of the southern portion of the Manono deposit from the talks starting on Tuesday. If all goes well, AVZ could on-sell the Manono interest for up to $US1.5bn ($2.38bn) plus a royalty. But there is no assurance of any outcome, favourable or otherwise.

 

[Penskefile]

So AVZ was/is prepared to go the distance with Cath's backing to get a mine (and have the plan). Its Kobold / US / DRC that are advocating for a quick/quiet exit. AVZ are willing to do whats right and legally defend our rights (and we raised the funds to do it), not whats quick BUT AVZ are willing to do whats quick if its in the interest of shareholders. They know what we have, they are the guys that measured it, that built it, that did all the work and then got sidelined by "circumstances".

Basically what is playing out now is what SHOULD have played out 4 years ago when China was the only game in town and the US was asleep at the wheel on critical mineral supply, US have FINALLY woken up and I think we are about to see just what US overkill is. Remember there is hundreds of billions of dollars in Manono and many TRILLIONS at stake in Africa, we are the ones being woo'd away from Cath/CATL and over to the US.

You’re completely wrong about US being “asleep at the wheel” and have “finally woken up”.

Like Albozo, Biden was a bought and paid for Chinese asset who was told to turn a blind eye to Chinese hegemony and just stick to his choc top ice creams, sniffing girls’ hair and visits to the beach.

Now that Trump is in town, he’s holding the Chinese‘s feet to the fire and is the only reason why we are back in the game.

All you Trump-hating, AVZ shareholders (you know who you are) should do the following:

- worship the ground Trump walks on; and
- eat a giant bag of dicks

Trump 2028

 

[Spikerama]

I was referring to the valuation reported by The Australian in March which is $1.5b USD plus a royalty not the $1b USD in KoBold's announcement

https://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/mining-energy/perthbased-avz-minerals-congo-lithium-hopes-hinge-on-us-envoys-talks/news-story/8ef1498e0d201415a5c0286718bac360?amp

I wasn't responding to you Carlos.

 

[Frank]

https://x.com/KiengeKki/status/1920388855473008885

https://x.com/KevinLBO/status/1920409747909411187

 

[Nellie17]

Here is a post I hope you will find interesting as I asked Grok and ChatGPT about their analysis of the situation.

KoBold reportedly has $1B USD in cash now, prepared to invest that into Manono according to the numerous news articles.
That would translate into 0.43 AUD/share, far below AVZ's "fair value". If Nigel and the team truly are negotiating towards a "fair value", it would equate to a higher price.
I did some research with Grok (X AI) and ChatGPT because I was interested in their analysis. What I find interesting about their analysis is that it has changed a lot since the last time I asked. Around December this year, I wrote a bit with Grok, and it believed a takeover (TO) would be put around 0.30–0.40 cents/share. Even though the price/share is still undervalued in my opinion, it shows that we are going in the right direction with a resolution hopefully within 6–12 months, IMO.

Grok believes fair value sits between 1.35–1.50 AUD and believes this will be the TO price.
ChatGPT believes fair value is 0.70–1.00 AUD with a TO in this area as well.
For curiosity's sake, I used the AI to calculate what different TO cash offers would result in price/share:

• 1B USD = 0.43 AUD
• 2B USD = 0.85 AUD
• 3B USD = 1.28 AUD/share
• 4B USD = 1.70 AUD
• 5B USD = 2.13 AUD

I also asked Grok to find out how this could get financed if we were to receive a 4–5B USD TO since KoBold currently lack the reqcuired cash for such a deal. Here is the analysis:


Most Likely Approach
KoBold will likely use a combination of strategies. A realistic scenario might involve:
Raising $2–$3 billion USD through a new equity round, leveraging their high-profile investors and the strategic importance of lithium.
Securing $1–$2 billion USD in debt or government-backed financing, especially if U.S.-DRC negotiations progress.
Partnering with a major miner or battery company for the remaining $1–$2 billion USD, sharing the project’s risks and rewards.
Is this the part where CATH comes in, LOL?


Finally, I also asked if Grok and ChatGPT believe KoBold will offer more than 1B USD for curiositys sake?

REPLY
Yes, KoBold is likely to offer more than $1 billion USD for AVZ Minerals' 75% stake in the Manono lithium project. The current $1 billion USD offer is significantly below the estimated fair value of $5.15–$7.09 billion USD, which could lead to backlash from AVZ shareholders. Shareholder unrest and threats of a class action lawsuit may pressure KoBold to increase their offer to avoid delays or legal challenges. The DRC government might also push for a higher amount to approve the deal, given the project's strategic importance. KoBold’s financial capacity and strategic motivations, backed by U.S. government support, make it feasible for them to offer $2–$4 billion.

G'day Lollipop,

I'm pretty sure the $1billion is to invest in building the mine, not to buy us out. Please check.

Cheers,
Nells xx

 

[Frank]

Lithium of Manono: pressure from the American KoBold on Kinshasa ​

The US KoBold Metals, supported by investors such as Bill Gates and Jeff Bezos, is on the offensive to accept the offer it submitted on 21 January 2025 to the authorities of the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) on the Manono lithium deposit, considered to have “the potential to become a large-scale, long-lasting lithium mine.” ​

According to an estimate published in January 2024, the deposit could house 669 million tonnes of mineral resources containing 1.61 per cent lithium.

KoBold issued a joint statement with Australia's AVZ Minerals entitled Developing Manono for Peace and Prosperity.

In this document, signed on 6 May 2025, by their respective Directors-General, Kurt House (photo) and Nigel Ferguson, the two companies state that they have “successful consensus on a business framework for the rapid development of the Manono deposit”.

“This framework provides for AVZ to hand over its commercial interests in the lithium deposit from Manono to KoBold, to fair value,” says the statement.

According to the same document, the agreement would allow KoBold to mobilize rapidement “rapidly” more than a billion dollars “to transport Manono’s lithium to Western markets.”

Except that, for the Congolese government, the Australian mining company no longer has rights to the deposit.

For Kinshasa, these rights were lost after the Congolese public company Cominière ended its partnership with AVz in 2022.

A decision which is contested by the International Court of Arbitration of the International Chamber of Commerce, in which it has already obtained the conviction of Cominière to pay EUR 39.1 million in penalties for non-compliance with injunctions.

However, the arbitral tribunal has not yet ruled on the merits of the case file.

In his offer made in January, KoBold proposes to end the litigation by granting “appropriate compensation” to AVZ, in exchange for abandoning his claims to Manono for his benefit.

The American company said it was ready to develop the southern part of the deposit, while the northern section would remain under the control of the Chinese group zijin Mining.

It should be recalled that Manono Lithium SAS, a 61% joint venture owned by the company (via its subsidiary Jinxiang Lithium) and 39% by Cominière, obtained an operating permit in September 2024 on part of the deposit.

An offer for “peace and prosperity”

So far, the Congolese authorities have not publicly expressed themselves on KoBold’s offer. But the joint statement of 6 May suggests that they have not yet given a favourable follow-up.

“After has undertaken to propose to the Congolese government a temporary suspension of the arbitration proceedings before the ICSID in order to facilitate the discussions,” says the document.

This statement sounds like a hit on Kinshasa.

KoBold and AV seem to be interested in taking advantage of the current rapprochement between the United States and the Democratic Republic of the Congo.

The document also mentions the US government as a stakeholder: “Avid and KoBold cooperate with all stakeholders, including the US government, the DRC government, and the current development partner of VA.”

The two companies also position their proposal as a contribution to “peace and prosperity,” promising “thousands of well-paid jobs for Congolese over decades.”

With the deteriorating security situation in the eastern DRC, Kinshasa offered the Trump administration a mining agreement in exchange for its support.

Since then, this issue has been the subject of bilateral discussions and Washington has been actively involved in the resolution of the conflict.

“A lasting peace in the eastern part of the Democratic Republic of Congo will open the door to larger US and Western citizen investments that will create an ecosystem that supports responsible and reliable supply chains for things like critical minerals,” said Secretary of State Marco Rubio, on April 25, 2025 in Washington, D.C., when the “Declaration of Principles” for a peace agreement between the DRC and Rwanda, support for the rebellion.

Lithium de Manono : coup de pression de l’Américain KoBold sur Kinshasa

L’entreprise américaine KoBold Metals, soutenue par des investisseurs comme Bill Gates et Jeff Bezos, passe à l’offensive pour faire accepter l’offre qu’elle a soumise, le 21 janvier 2025, aux autorités de la République démocratique du Congo (RDC) sur le gisement de lithium de Manono, considéré...

bankable.africa

 

[BEISHA]

This is the kind of cash that KoBold can associate with (not including the other investors they have recently mentioned)

Jack Ma worth US$28 billion
Bill Gates worth US$107 billion
Jeff Bezos worth US$211 billion
BHP worth AU$190 billion
RIO worth US$102 billion
Elon Musk worth US$327 billion

Total = Around $1 trillion

I think AVZ’s 75% ownership is still to be proven in the ICC which could take some time and I wouldn’t be surprised if KoBold use this as another excuse for a discount as well as wanting AVZ to sign a deal before the ICC proves beyond doubt our full ownership of 75% of Dathcom

I also suspect they will get the fat thief to sign the agreement as quick as possible so they can move fast with a negotiated offer. I personally wouldn’t lose any sleep if the fat idiot’s plane went down on the way to the US for the signing. For three years I’ve stayed positive and for some reason KoBold comes along and I just don’t trust them

Time for me to drop a few mercyndol and neurophen plus so I can sign off here and hopefully not look at TSE again at least until tomorrow. Pity your not here to mix me a few of your famous 2 litre jug mixes of margaritas to wash them down @Xerof

so I can sign off here and hopefully not look at TSE again

Been hearing that for so long i cant remember

Admit it..........you cant stay away .

You really love us dont you

 

[BEISHA]

Kobold can say whatever they want, I'm sure I won't be the only shareholder who'll be happy to leave some money in the AVZ coffers to sue the fuck out of zijin for damages. Fuck those lowlife Chinese assholes to hell and back.

 

[PhatCatz]

$1.5b USD / 3.5b shares = $0.42 USD

Looks like The Australian was right. It better have royalties. Nigel securing himself a job too won’t go down well if there isn't residual benefits for shareholders at that valuation.

View attachment 84065

I can't find any of these supposed lines of text on the interwebs, nor a mining analyst going by the name of Jane Carter who works are Mac Group. I question the validity of it all. Just seems like some mashup of the supposed offer brought forward and chuck in a few bits of pieces of recent news to try to spin a story. I hope that's the bloody case! 65c is a fucking joke... can't even get a family holiday out of that shitbox offer after being subjected to 3 years of financial stress.

EDIT: oops didn't see the call out of fake news already!

 

[Frank]

Kobold can say whatever they want, I'm sure I won't be the only shareholder who'll be happy to leave some money in the AVZ coffers to sue the fuck out of zijin for damages. Fuck those lowlife Chinese assholes to hell and back.

Surely we can we Sue the Shit outta them for "Pain & Suffering" if nothing else Sam

To sue for pain and suffering, you'll need to establish that you've experienced emotional distress and other non-economic damages due to a personal injury.

This typically involves proving a connection between a negligence or breach of duty and the resulting emotional harm, along with seeking expert medical opinions and documenting the impact on your life.

Gather Evidence:

• Medical Records: Obtain comprehensive medical documentation detailing your injuries and their impact.
  

• Witness Statements: Collect any witness accounts related to the incident.
  
  
• Financial Records: Keep records of medical bills, lost wages, and other expenses related to your injury.
• Daily Journal: Document the impact of your pain and suffering on your daily life.
• 
  
• Seek Expert Opinions:
  • Consult with medical professionals (psychologists, psychiatrists) to assess the severity and impact of your emotional distress.
    
  
  
  
  
  
• A "pain and suffering calculator" is a tool, often found online, that estimates the potential compensation for emotional distress and physical pain related to an injury.

 

[BEISHA]

The cheques are just those rediculously large ceremonial novelty cheques, the real purpose of the ceremony is pissing on the tainted ground.

Fuck that going to DRC...........thats like Nortbridge on steroids ( the WA dudes will know what i mean )

You simply wont get back to OZ, it would be the last piss you take.

better make it a golden one if you are insistent and dont forget to update your will....

Enjoy.

 

[Frank]

The cheques are just those rediculously large ceremonial novelty cheques, the real purpose of the ceremony is pissing on the tainted ground.

Hey Dan, after we Piss on them, how about we give them a

 

[BEISHA]

Hey Dan, after we Piss on them, how about we give them a

View attachment 84091

@Nellie17

 

[Dave Evans]

so I can sign off here and hopefully not look at TSE again

Been hearing that for so long i cant remember

Admit it..........you cant stay away .

You really love us dont you

View attachment 84087

Caught me …. Yes after midnight again and not long ago added a post to the list of scumbag names in The Twitter Dirty Dozen thread. It’s not my fault the mercyndol and neurophen plus didn’t work, possibly due to my early days on magic mushrooms. They just don’t make drugs like they used to anymore

 

[djhome]

How come I never hear about the mix tape no more… I need the tunes again

 

[JNRB]

Important to remember KoBold are all in on exploration, and their business model is all about capitalising off the back of exploration success. They don’t want to develop anything and simply want partners or sales to deal with that.

They see more at this deposit is my view.

RIO.

It's worth remembering that Kobold are spring chickens and don't actually have a business model. They have some AI that they think gives them competent advantage, but thay could just as well mean knowing truly how much a great deposit is worth.

Their main competitive advantage is access to deep pockets.

It's also worth remembering they are planing to go public in the next few years.

 

[Underwaterdark]

Just to preface this, I am keen for the most beneficial outcome possible, been waiting a very long time like all of you

But:
$1b investment appears to be to get the mine going so they can get the product to the west.

We were looking at circa $1b with investments from Cath and other parties to build the mine.


Yes, the leaked info from the last Kobold rumour there was a $1.5b takeover offer.

But this was the first offer and I am sure Nige has been working hard to get something better.


But I am still unable to fathom the people that think we are getting $2-$4 or beyond?

Our highest trade on ASX was like $1.31 or $1.35 intraday.
This had a ML being issued imminently priced in, and us proceeding to mine.

What has happened since then to increase the perceived value?
Asset hasn't improved, market hasn't improved, we haven't been able to progress anything.

I very much doubt we will get hurt money just because we have had to wait all these years.
But happy to be proven wrong.

Tim will tell.