AVZ Discussion 2022

[cruiser51]

 

[cruiser51]

 

[DiscoDanNZ]

50% discount . $5Bil USD . Call it $4Bil USD and ride on Bezos's Rocket Penis . I won't go just in case the f--ken thing blows up , but for the rest of you it's a chance of a life time .

I want to add that we all get flown to Manono to be personally handed our cheques.

Followed by a the formation of a Congo line (sic) led by Nigel to the Northern boundary of the Southern tenement where we all get to simultaneously piss over the border, flooding the northern tenement and forever tainting Zijins stolen lithium with ammonia.

P.s. Fuck Zijin

 

[Samus]

I want to add that we all get flown to Manono to be personally handed our cheques.

Dan, drc is hell on earth. I wouldn't even go there if I had to pick up my cheque!
By the time you left the money would be embezzled anyway.

 

[DiscoDanNZ]

Dan, drc is hell on earth. I wouldn't even go there if I had to pick up my cheque!
By the time you left the money would be embezzled anyway.

The cheques are just those rediculously large ceremonial novelty cheques, the real purpose of the ceremony is pissing on the tainted ground.

 

[KentCStrait]

And let's not forget...even in a delisted company, the company needs approval of the majority of shareholders to pursue with a buyout price.

No, no, no. This is not a buyout of the company we hold shares in. An asset the company we hold is being sold. What's then done with the proceeds of that sale will likely require a special general meeting and a vote by shareholders but your claim is wrong.

 

[OmarsCominYo]

This posted on the crapper, by someone saying there's a lot of fake stories around....so I bloody well hope this isn't accurate as it would be a pitiful compensation for the health and financial stress of being put through years of this debacle. ICfuckingSID all the way if this is an accurate figure imv..

 

[hedrox]

No, no, no. This is not a buyout of the company we hold shares in. An asset the company we hold is being sold. What's then done with the proceeds of that sale will likely require a special general meeting and a vote by shareholders but your claim is wrong.

Kent....thank u for clearing that up. you are right..it is an asset sale...not a share buy out. I must be to excited about today's progress I guess. I deleted my post.

 

[UtterMoron]

Thank fucking christ, i might be able to pay off my mortgage next christmas.

I'm hedging my bets we cede the north under condition we get a cut of the profit and shared use of the hydro electric dam to get over this hump, hand that agreement off to kobolds and take the gtfo discounted offer. If it lands near the $3-4 mark I'll be happy as larry. If it's substantially more praise the lord I'll tattoo Fergies face on my left buttcheek

 

[Carlos Danger]

This posted on the crapper, by someone saying there's a lot of fake stories around....so I bloody well hope this isn't accurate as it would be a pitiful compensation for the health and financial stress of being put through years of this debacle. ICfuckingSID all the way if this is an accurate figure imv..

$1.5b USD / 3.5b shares = $0.42 USD

Looks like The Australian was right. It better have royalties. Nigel securing himself a job too won’t go down well if there isn't residual benefits for shareholders at that valuation.

 

[Samus]

This posted on the crapper, by someone saying there's a lot of fake stories around....so I bloody well hope this isn't accurate as it would be a pitiful compensation for the health and financial stress of being put through years of this debacle. ICfuckingSID all the way if this is an accurate figure imv..

 

[Flekman11]

Important to remember KoBold are all in on exploration, and their business model is all about capitalising off the back of exploration success. They don’t want to develop anything and simply want partners or sales to deal with that.

They see more at this deposit is my view.

RIO.

 

[Yaseen]

@42c If Nige is even considering it then I hope he doesnt plan on coming back to Australia becuase I dont think it would be safe to do so, unless it came with a whole lot of juicy extras, lots of Kobold shares etc

 

[Hudnut]

I agree with your sentiment. I would hope that AVZ paying it out to shareholders as a special dividend. Resume trading and we can get out of it.

Fuck that. At top marginal tax rate, I'd have to make a 100% return on my average price to not actually lose money.
And I've got other capital losses I can write off against this.
A dividend is the worst outcome for me. Capital gain please.

 

[lellep]

Here is a post I hope you will find interesting as I asked Grok and ChatGPT about their analysis of the situation.

KoBold reportedly has $1B USD in cash now, prepared to invest that into Manono according to the numerous news articles.
That would translate into 0.43 AUD/share, far below AVZ's "fair value". If Nigel and the team truly are negotiating towards a "fair value", it would equate to a higher price.
I did some research with Grok (X AI) and ChatGPT because I was interested in their analysis. What I find interesting about their analysis is that it has changed a lot since the last time I asked. Around December this year, I wrote a bit with Grok, and it believed a takeover (TO) would be put around 0.30–0.40 cents/share. Even though the price/share is still undervalued in my opinion, it shows that we are going in the right direction with a resolution hopefully within 6–12 months, IMO.

Grok believes fair value sits between 1.35–1.50 AUD and believes this will be the TO price.
ChatGPT believes fair value is 0.70–1.00 AUD with a TO in this area as well.
For curiosity's sake, I used the AI to calculate what different TO cash offers would result in price/share:

• 1B USD = 0.43 AUD
• 2B USD = 0.85 AUD
• 3B USD = 1.28 AUD/share
• 4B USD = 1.70 AUD
• 5B USD = 2.13 AUD

I also asked Grok to find out how this could get financed if we were to receive a 4–5B USD TO since KoBold currently lack the reqcuired cash for such a deal. Here is the analysis:


Most Likely Approach
KoBold will likely use a combination of strategies. A realistic scenario might involve:
Raising $2–$3 billion USD through a new equity round, leveraging their high-profile investors and the strategic importance of lithium.
Securing $1–$2 billion USD in debt or government-backed financing, especially if U.S.-DRC negotiations progress.
Partnering with a major miner or battery company for the remaining $1–$2 billion USD, sharing the project’s risks and rewards.
Is this the part where CATH comes in, LOL?


Finally, I also asked if Grok and ChatGPT believe KoBold will offer more than 1B USD for curiositys sake?

REPLY
Yes, KoBold is likely to offer more than $1 billion USD for AVZ Minerals' 75% stake in the Manono lithium project. The current $1 billion USD offer is significantly below the estimated fair value of $5.15–$7.09 billion USD, which could lead to backlash from AVZ shareholders. Shareholder unrest and threats of a class action lawsuit may pressure KoBold to increase their offer to avoid delays or legal challenges. The DRC government might also push for a higher amount to approve the deal, given the project's strategic importance. KoBold’s financial capacity and strategic motivations, backed by U.S. government support, make it feasible for them to offer $2–$4 billion.

 

[lellep]

@Dave Evans

Mate, I’m battling a bad dose of Covid, which I have duly handed over to my wife despite precautions. Been 10 days now and still reeling from it. Bastard. Got it 2 days after getting back from Dubai, so possibly a strain not covered by recent vax.

Rest assured I’ll be back on the Margherita bandwagon soon enough.

I can see the situation is going to be analysed to death for the next couple of months, so I might stay in bed for the duration

In Nige we trust

I see Shane is having psychotic episodes on X - needs some Li

Hope you get well soon! In the meantime enjoy reading Toilets desperation on the crapper and all the interesting news surrounding AVZ!

 

[Spikerama]

Here is a post I hope you will find interesting as I asked Grok and ChatGPT about their analysis of the situation.

KoBold reportedly has $1B USD in cash now, prepared to invest that into Manono according to the numerous news articles.
That would translate into 0.43 AUD/share, far below AVZ's "fair value". If Nigel and the team truly are negotiating towards a "fair value", it would equate to a higher price.
I did some research with Grok (X AI) and ChatGPT because I was interested in their analysis. What I find interesting about their analysis is that it has changed a lot since the last time I asked. Around December this year, I wrote a bit with Grok, and it believed a takeover (TO) would be put around 0.30–0.40 cents/share. Even though the price/share is still undervalued in my opinion, it shows that we are going in the right direction with a resolution hopefully within 6–12 months, IMO.

Grok believes fair value sits between 1.35–1.50 AUD and believes this will be the TO price.
ChatGPT believes fair value is 0.70–1.00 AUD with a TO in this area as well.
For curiosity's sake, I used the AI to calculate what different TO cash offers would result in price/share:

• 1B USD = 0.43 AUD
• 2B USD = 0.85 AUD
• 3B USD = 1.28 AUD/share
• 4B USD = 1.70 AUD
• 5B USD = 2.13 AUD

I also asked Grok to find out how this could get financed if we were to receive a 4–5B USD TO since KoBold currently lack the reqcuired cash for such a deal. Here is the analysis:


Most Likely Approach
KoBold will likely use a combination of strategies. A realistic scenario might involve:
Raising $2–$3 billion USD through a new equity round, leveraging their high-profile investors and the strategic importance of lithium.
Securing $1–$2 billion USD in debt or government-backed financing, especially if U.S.-DRC negotiations progress.
Partnering with a major miner or battery company for the remaining $1–$2 billion USD, sharing the project’s risks and rewards.
Is this the part where CATH comes in, LOL?


Finally, I also asked if Grok and ChatGPT believe KoBold will offer more than 1B USD for curiositys sake?

REPLY
Yes, KoBold is likely to offer more than $1 billion USD for AVZ Minerals' 75% stake in the Manono lithium project. The current $1 billion USD offer is significantly below the estimated fair value of $5.15–$7.09 billion USD, which could lead to backlash from AVZ shareholders. Shareholder unrest and threats of a class action lawsuit may pressure KoBold to increase their offer to avoid delays or legal challenges. The DRC government might also push for a higher amount to approve the deal, given the project's strategic importance. KoBold’s financial capacity and strategic motivations, backed by U.S. government support, make it feasible for them to offer $2–$4 billion.

I think a clear distinction needs to be made about what this 1 billion, Kobold has to invest relates to.

I understood it to be they would invest 1 billion to develop the mine project, (ie; Manono) after AVZ has been compensated. Not in to AVZ or Dathcom. So you cant divide the SOI into 1 billion and get a pps. That's just bonkers.

 

[Yaseen]

what? "not a strain covered by the recent vax"?, that better be sattire

 

[Hudnut]

$1.5b USD / 3.5b shares = $0.42 USD

Looks like The Australian was right. It better have royalties. Nigel securing himself a job too won’t go down well if there isn't residual benefits for shareholders at that valuation.

Kobold's release: ".. will enable KoBold to rapidly deploy more than $1B to bring the Manono Lithium to Western markets"

The Australian: "The sale price remains unclear, but the deal is set to trigger an initial investment of more than $US1bn ($1.55bn) in Manono from KoBold"

From the other article:
"The Framework Agreement Structure
KoBold's entry represents a potential breakthrough in this protracted dispute. The company has proposed a framework agreement that would:

1. Compensate AVZ Minerals for its initial exploration work and partial claim settlement
2. Divide the massive deposit geographically – with KoBold developing the southern portion while Zijin retains rights to the northern section
3. Commit $1 billion for project development over a 5-year timeframe
4. Establish clear boundaries and operational independence between the two zones"

It looks to me like $1B is the investment as per Spike's post, not the sale/compensation price.
I look forward to hearing what those are.

 

[Carlos Danger]

I think a clear distinction needs to be made about what this 1 billion, Kobold has to invest relates to.

I understood it to be they would invest 1 billion to develop the mine project, (ie; Manono) after AVZ has been compensated. Not in to AVZ or Dathcom. So you cant divide the SOI into 1 billion and get a pps. That's just bonkers.

Kobold's release: ".. will enable KoBold to rapidly deploy more than $1B to bring the Manono Lithium to Western markets"

The Australian: "The sale price remains unclear, but the deal is set to trigger an initial investment of more than $US1bn ($1.55bn) in Manono from KoBold"

From the other article:
"The Framework Agreement Structure
KoBold's entry represents a potential breakthrough in this protracted dispute. The company has proposed a framework agreement that would:

1. Compensate AVZ Minerals for its initial exploration work and partial claim settlement
2. Divide the massive deposit geographically – with KoBold developing the southern portion while Zijin retains rights to the northern section
3. Commit $1 billion for project development over a 5-year timeframe
4. Establish clear boundaries and operational independence between the two zones"

It looks to me like $1B is the investment as per Spike's post, not the sale/compensation price.
I look forward to hearing what those are.

$1.5b USD / 3.5b shares = $0.42 USD

Looks like The Australian was right. It better have royalties. Nigel securing himself a job too won’t go down well if there isn't residual benefits for shareholders at that valuation.

I was referring to the valuation reported by The Australian in March which is $1.5b USD plus a royalty not the $1b USD in KoBold's announcement

https://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/mining-energy/perthbased-avz-minerals-congo-lithium-hopes-hinge-on-us-envoys-talks/news-story/8ef1498e0d201415a5c0286718bac360?amp

Perth-based AVZ Minerals’ Congo lithium hopes hinge on US envoy’s talks​

Brad Thompson

AVZ and KoBold representatives want to nail down a deal on the future of the southern portion of the Manono deposit from the talks starting on Tuesday. If all goes well, AVZ could on-sell the Manono interest for up to $US1.5bn ($2.38bn) plus a royalty. But there is no assurance of any outcome, favourable or otherwise.