AVZ Discussion 2022

[bloke383]

Well fuck me, I said I don’t believe a bar of it and 5min later a deal is announced

All I know now is if those private tweets from Jens going back about a month or so were right….

“We are close”
“Don’t post anything about the president”
“We’ll be lucky if we get $????”

It leaves me with these conclusions….
1) We fought hard for three years
2) The DRC and US were desperate for Manono not to get to ICSID
3) We better get an announcement saying the price is well above what Jens quoted privately and with the best tax outcome possible or we’ll be just shareholders who wasted the last three years fighting for a just outcome

3) We better get an announcement saying the price is well above what Jens quoted privately and with the best tax outcome possible or we’ll be just shareholders who wasted the last three years fighting for a just outcome


From The Australian
"Sources close to Mr Ferguson said he had been working tirelessly in Washington to secure the best possible deal for AVZ shareholders given there is no guarantee the DRC would adhere to any eventual arbitration ruling in AVZ’s favour."

The US and DRC need this done more quickly than we do Nigel . Don't sell us short Nigel .

 

[PhatCatz]

I don’t like them after everything they’ve tried to do to the company but would appreciate if the Chinese just rocked up to Nigel’s doorstep with a US$12b cheque.

 

[LOCKY82]

There was a break fee on the initial agreement when Cath came on board but I think the last deal when they gave us the 20m litigation fund had a few more strings. I think Cath need to be made whole on this deal (which is what AVZ are saying), while they have not been 100% behind us in the trenches, they have gotten us this far. An offtake agreement probably keeps them happy (all they really want is the product not the business).

That said... 669MILLION TONES @ 1.6% which is measured in RD... and they only stopped there because thats well over 30 years LOM. There is literally no other asset on earth like this one. ICSID alone was seeking 10B. I will wait and see what fair value translates to for us but if its pennies on the dollar that certainly is not a fair value to me ... we have/had all approvals in place and Cath backing us... its in everyones interest to advance this project quickly and not get bogged down in the who did what to whom or misappropriated what, for right now my expectations fall well above the low end of what people here are saying but not quiet at the high end (depending on if we keep a royalty or how they structure the thing).

Was that 10b usd or aud can anyone remember?

 

[Colaci78]

Does anyone have access to this article?

Kobold Metals Says Agreed On A Framework To Buy AVZ's Interests In The Manono Lithium Deposit In DRC

May 7 - * KOBOLD METALS - AGREED ON A FRAMEWORK TO BUY AVZ’S INTERESTS IN THE MANONO LITHIUM DEPOSIT IN THE DEMOCRATIC REPUBLIC OF CONGO * KOBOLD METALS- AGREEMENT TO... -May 07, 2025 at 02:05 pm EDT - MarketScreener

www.marketscreener.com

 

[tonster66]

Dont we, the shareholders have a say in any offer?

 

[Flight996]

3) We better get an announcement saying the price is well above what Jens quoted privately and with the best tax outcome possible or we’ll be just shareholders who wasted the last three years fighting for a just outcome


From The Australian
"Sources close to Mr Ferguson said he had been working tirelessly in Washington to secure the best possible deal for AVZ shareholders given there is no guarantee the DRC would adhere to any eventual arbitration ruling in AVZ’s favour."

The US and DRC need this done more quickly than we do Nigel . Don't sell us short Nigel .

Re: Sources close to Mr Ferguson said he had been working tirelessly in Washington to secure the best possible deal for AVZ shareholders given there is no guarantee the DRC would adhere to any eventual arbitration ruling in AVZ’s favour.

I am rather surprised that this paragraph even got a run. It seems to me that the DRC is in a rather weak negotiating position. After all, the DRC approached the USA (rather than the USA approaching the DRC), because the enemy is at its gates and the risk of further rebel gains and a military coup remain high.

I too hope for a 'fair price'

Cheers
F

 

[Mute22]

Was that 10b usd or aud can anyone remember?

Assume everything going through ICSID is in USD.

 

[LzrTr8dr]

Assume everything going through ICSID is in USD.

Come on albo, make that AUD weak

 

[PhatCatz]

Fuck Zijin. If they walk away Scott free it’s a fucking disgrace. I want that private military to just invade and reclaim our stolen land and kick them out for good. It really pisses me off these cunts are going to grab a massive resource for a few mill and their shit stain DRC friends move to Belgium to enjoy retirement.

Anyways, KoBold better pay up and pay up good. I want to retire and set my family up for generations to come. As do everyone else on this forum. $us12bn is nothing for them but everything for us.

 

[CHB]

Holy shit wow.

Let's hope for a decent outcome for shareholders

 

[wombat74]

Re: Sources close to Mr Ferguson said he had been working tirelessly in Washington to secure the best possible deal for AVZ shareholders given there is no guarantee the DRC would adhere to any eventual arbitration ruling in AVZ’s favour.

I am rather surprised that this paragraph even got a run. It seems to me that the DRC is in a rather weak negotiating position. After all, the DRC approached the USA (rather than the USA approaching the DRC), because the enemy is at its gates and the risk of further rebel gains and a military coup remain high.

I too hope for a 'fair price'

Cheers
F

Brings that $1.5Bil USD (65c aud) +Royalty leak into context. Now we wait and see how much extra Nigel's been able to negotiate . IMO

 

[Scoota30]

Brings that $1.5Bil USD (65c aud) +Royalty leak into context. Now we wait and see how much extra Nigel's been able to negotiate . IMO

that leak came straight from Zijin's board meeting they got lost in translation from Chinese Yuan to USD and need to move that decimal point to the right!!

 

[Mute22]

I know it's not realistic at all, but man, I hope 'fair compensation' take into account the massive opportunity cost that has been inflicted on us all for 3 years.

How many people have missed out on ever securing decent housing, given since 2022 prices up are up another 30-40% across many capital cities?

 

[tonster66]

our all time high share price was $1.36, so that means people bought in at that price. How fair would it be to those shareholders if we sold for less than that?
What AVZ wanted through the ICSID was almost $10b in compensation only, not for the resource. A fair starting point would be at the compensation level and then increase from there.
imo

 

[tonster66]

I know it's not realistic at all, but man, I hope 'fair compensation' take into account the massive opportunity cost that has been inflicted on us all for 3 years.

How many people have missed out on ever securing decent housing, given since 2022 prices up are up another 30-40% across many capital cities?

Couldn't agree more

 

[Skar]

Dont we, the shareholders have a say in any offer?

Realistically no, its decided by the top holders, retail investors just go along for the ride.

How many people have missed out on housing since 2022 with prices up another 30-40% across many capital cities?

Yeah not quite... I did draw out the maximum equity available in my apartment and invested in AVZ/other plays. If all goes well here it may net me a house in a capital city but trying to keep a level head and not get emotionally invested.

Sale price is the first hurdle, tax ruling will likely hurt more than the sale price (doesn't matter which government it is they all want their pound of flesh).

 

[Bray]

Wowe. Me and these boys don’t know what to think…. An end in sight?! MONEY?!!!
View attachment IMG_4558.jpeg

 

[Remark]

Great news but still a long way to go. Nice to have a bit of super positive news for a change.

Looks like Nigel has been earning his keep.

 

[Doc]

I know KoBold have said let Zijin have the North. Its a shame that scum will get anything but what we MUST get is compensation for the North. If KoBold want zijin to keep that's on them but then they have to pay us for it. So the way I see see it is 'fair compensation' is for the WHOLE 13359 in its original form. Bring the checkbook Bezos

 

[Skar]

If KoBold want zijin to keep that's on them but then they have to pay us for it

I think we are in one of those grey areas where we need to get "fair value" - without publicly being too defined on what the fair value is for... everyone needs to save face here and there is a reason management said effectively "cool it guys you are not helping negotiations" regarding the social media stuff.