En pourparlers avec Kinshasa pour une potentielle entrée sur le projet Manono, Rio Tinto rejoint la liste des compagnies intéressées par le lithium
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5 questions to understand the increased interest in Congolese lithium despite falling prices
(Ecofin Agency) - In talks with Kinshasa for a potential entry into the Manono project, Rio Tinto joins the list of companies interested in Congolese lithium. If the information, reported late last week by Bloomberg, is confirmed, it would be a strong signal, counter to the current market trend, revealing a strategic shift in the global competition for critical metals.
Why the interest now, when prices are falling?
Since 2023, the global lithium market has seen a significant price decline. For example, the price of lithium carbonate fell from a record high of $81,360 per tonne in November 2022 to $20,782 per tonne in February 2024, then fell to less than $11,000
last September and less than $10,000 in
March 2025. This decline is believed to be due to oversupply, while demand is growing at a more moderate pace. According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), global lithium production reached 194,000 tonnes in 2023, an increase of 81% compared to 2021. However, demand increased by only 63% over the same period, reaching 165,000 tonnes, a slowdown that analysts explain by several factors including a buildup of inventories and less dynamic growth than expected in sales of electric vehicles.
This market context has already slowed several projects in Africa, such as
Atex in Ivory Coast or Ewoyaa in Ghana, according to our previous publications. Yet, despite this, several major companies are making progress on the continent. In Namibia, Chile's SQM, the world's second-largest lithium producer,
confirmed in March 2025 a gradual investment of up to $40 million. Rio Tinto could follow this same logic if its interest in the Manono project in the DRC is confirmed. While the timing may seem surprising, it could actually be part of a long-term strategy that would consist of securing major assets for the energy transition now, anticipating a rebound in demand around 2030.
Congolese lithium: why is it generating so much interest despite the potential risks?
The Manono project (located in a lithium-rich region) is among the world's largest untapped deposits, with approximately 400 million tonnes of resources (grading 1.65% lithium), according to estimates by Australia's AVZ Minerals, which has been in dispute for several months with the DRC and the state-owned company Cominière over the southern portion of the permit. The northern portion of the project is currently managed by China's Zijin Mining. In January, Zijin confirmed its intention to begin production as early as 2026, which would make the DRC Africa's third-largest lithium producer, after Zimbabwe and Mali, which recently commissioned two mines (Goulamina and Bougouni), as we reported
in February.
According to several concordant sources, it is the southern part that is attracting other players, including the American company KoBold Metals, backed by Jeff Bezos and Bill Gates, which
proposed in January a shareholding arrangement favoring the Congolese state (and allowing it to settle the dispute with AVZ) in order to develop the deposit. Discussions between the Congolese state and Rio Tinto are reportedly focusing on this same deposit. This degree of competition, despite the uncertain climate due to the dispute, could reflect a desire on the part of these companies to position themselves before the cards are reshuffled.
What geostrategic role does the DRC play in the lithium market?
Interest in Manono goes beyond purely industrial logic, as the DRC is far from being the country with the highest
lithium reserves , with the ranking dominated by Chile, Australia, Argentina, and China. It is part of a broader geopolitical dynamic: the desire of Western countries to reduce their dependence on China, which controls more than 60% of global lithium refining, according to data from the Dubai Multi Commodities Centre (DMCC). The DRC, already the world's leading cobalt producer, now appears to be a strategic location for balancing supply chains. In addition to the presence of China's Zijin Mining on the northern part of the project, KoBold Metals' ambitions come in the context of announced discussions between Kinshasa and Washington on a potential mineral agreement in exchange for security support, as revealed in an article by Ecofin earlier this month. The potential arrival of Rio Tinto in the southern part, in this already tense landscape, could constitute a new discreet front between rival powers on critical metals.
What is Rio Tinto really looking for in the DRC?
Rio Tinto is pursuing a global strategy of integration into the lithium value chain. After acquiring Arcadium Lithium for $6.7 billion in 2024, the group has consolidated its presence in Argentina and Serbia, and signed a partnership with Rwanda to exploit strategic minerals, including lithium. The interest in Manono is therefore consistent with its logic of expanding into high-potential assets, even in complex jurisdictions.
Africa is emerging as a new frontier between relatively low entry costs, abundant resources, and a growing political will to develop critical metals. For Rio Tinto, which is already known on the continent for its presence in other minerals such as iron ore in Guinea, the timing is strategic. Entering Manono today would secure a world-class asset before it becomes more contested—an anticipation that few players have the means or the will to take on in the current cycle trough.
What should the DRC do in the face of this growing interest?
For Kinshasa, the interest of Rio Tinto, KoBold, Zijin, and AVZ represents a rare opportunity. But for it to become a strategic lever, the ambiguity must be resolved. The dispute between Cominière and AVZ, which has already led to a $42.4 million fine against the state by the International Chamber of Commerce, is weighing on the country's credibility. The DRC must clarify rights, secure investors, and structure a vision for the value chain.
Other countries are moving forward. Mali, thanks to Goulamina and Bougouni, is on the verge of becoming a leader in West Africa. Zimbabwe is already investing in local processing.
The DRC has the assets to follow this path. According to UK Aid and BloombergNEF, the country has a comparative advantage in refining costs. However, it must focus on a coherent industrial strategy, not on ad hoc arrangements or endless legal arbitrations.
By 2050, global demand for lithium could increase 75-fold, according to the DMCC. Africa could supply 12% by 2033, according to Benchmark, compared to 4% in 2023. The DRC can claim a major share of this market. But between the promise of the subsoil and the benefits of the value chain, the crucial step of governance remains to be taken.
Louis-Nino Kansoun
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