AVZ Discussion 2022

[LOCKY82]

First of all....it's only a beginning base TO price. I was a few times involved in Take overs. My first TO was with CDV. First offer 46 cents by North Gold [ Russian ] . A few days later the Chinese come back with an offer of 60 cents. Then the counter offer by the Russians...67 cents... and it went on and on and finally got sold for 1.06 $. Everybody knows how valuable AVZ is...let's wait...it's all only the beginning of the bidding war and we got the last saying....

Just read up on that bidding war, good result in the end it seems. There's a way for this to go could be very interesting see what happens between now and the hearing date. Maybe these players won't want the case to start and are positioning now?

 

[Strongman]

Wow had a day off the forums yesterday and just done a catch up. Yesterday after @mute 22 put up the article in "The Australian " lots of angst and negativity. This morning much more positive i think
Not sure who Brad Thompson is or where he sourced the $ 1.5 B USD figure but there certainally was nothing said confirming his source of this figure.
We have no real idea of what the " royalty " entails but for all we know the $1.5 B lowball could be to reduce tax implications to DRC with a very attractive "royalty" which could make this in fact a very good deal. Point is we really have no idea and everything for now is speculation
Suprisingly no one seems to be focussing on the meeting on Tueday of Special Envoy Boulos, Kobold chief Kurt House and the fat boy himself. To me this is the most exciting thing for sure.
Kobold tied to US security seems to me most likely way forward. I do find it hard to see how Rio could enter in to the project with a stand alone offer and satisfy Felixs want for M23 resolution. Much more likely Kobold/Rio partnership
Anyway looking forward to Tuesday

 

[Uglybob]

No matter what the price is, 10 years from now when they are digging up and refining, everyone will be looking back and thinking the eventual winner got it for a bargain.

 

[Bin59]

Wow had a day off the forums yesterday and just done a catch up. Yesterday after @mute 22 put up the article in "The Australian " lots of angst and negativity. This morning much more positive i think
Not sure who Brad Thompson is or where he sourced the $ 1.5 B USD figure but there certainally was nothing said confirming his source of this figure.
We have no real idea of what the " royalty " entails but for all we know the $1.5 B lowball could be to reduce tax implications to DRC with a very attractive "royalty" which could make this in fact a very good deal. Point is we really have no idea and everything for now is speculation
Suprisingly no one seems to be focussing on the meeting on Tueday of Special Envoy Boulos, Kobold chief Kurt House and the fat boy himself. To me this is the most exciting thing for sure.
Kobold tied to US security seems to me most likely way forward. I do find it hard to see how Rio could enter in to the project with a stand alone offer and satisfy Felixs want for M23 resolution. Much more likely Kobold/Rio partnership
Anyway looking forward to Tuesday

Brad Thompson who is currently a reporter for the Australian, previously worked as a journalist for the Australian Financial Review, leaving them just 6 months ago,

 

[wombat74]

Brad Thompson who is currently a reporter for the Australian, previously worked as a journalist for the Australian Financial Review, leaving them just 6 months ago,

View attachment 80859

He's probably making sh1t up to yank our chain . Could have been Tommy's bum chum for all we know .

 

[Samus]

Way I see it, we can start talking at $5b USD. Royalties sounds like something as well.
I'd like to see us get some additional billions out of zijin, they can either pay fair and square or we sue the fuck out of them. It's all the same to me with the later infinitely more satisfying.
No compromise should be made in that regard.

 

[CHB]

He's still fairly connected to know specifically about the US rep flying to DRC and also AVZ rep.

So IMO that number would have came from somewhere. But it's still a ridiculous number that hopefully got laughed at by NF

 

[Carlos Danger]

Not sure who Brad Thompson is or where he sourced the $ 1.5 B USD figure but there certainally was nothing said confirming his source of this figure.
We have no real idea of what the " royalty " entails but for all we know the $1.5 B lowball could be to reduce tax implications to DRC with a very attractive "royalty" which could make this in fact a very good deal. Point is we really have no idea and everything for now is speculation
Suprisingly no one seems to be focussing on the meeting on Tueday of Special Envoy Boulos, Kobold chief Kurt House and the fat boy himself. To me this is the most exciting thing for sure.

He's still fairly connected to know specifically about the US rep flying to DRC and also AVZ rep.

So IMO that number would have came from somewhere. But it's still a ridiculous number that hopefully got laughed at by NF

It’s the same reporter that broke the original story that Trump administration wants AVZ to get paid in any deal for Manono

None of y’all were questioning his sources then lol

The 1.5b is extremely believable and on brand for KoBold. The real question is why on earth would Nigel be considering this enough to send representatives to the meeting. Would need to be the greatest royalty deal of all time, possibly ever, to get my vote.

 

[wombat74]

It’s the same reporter that broke the original story that Trump administration wants AVZ to get paid in any deal for Manono

None of y’all were questioning his sources then lol

The 1.5b is extremely believable and on brand for KoBold. The real question is why on earth would Nigel be considering this enough to send representatives to the meeting. Would need to be the greatest royalty deal of all time, possibly ever, to get my vote.

If we are sending reps means Felix is up for it and this is not pie in the sky . April 10 anyone ? I'll go out on a limb here . This deal is baking in the oven as we speak . Maybe a sweetener to come ? Another $500mil -$Bil USD+ and the royalties . The royalties will be the kicker that brings it home . Felix needs a security deal . Manono has to be a Trump deal .IMO

 

[Flexi]

All offers coming now will be way below the true value of the resource. It is as expected. They will try and get it as cheap as possible before the IICSD hearing begins. However as we near the start of the case they will up their offers closer to $10 billion because they know if the case begins, not only will the corrupt pricks be exposed, but the minimum starting price will become $10 Billion as they know our chances of winning the case are high. Some people say Congo is broke and cant pay, but who ever wants to mine the good stuff from the ground will first need to pay the fine to us, before they can begin mining.
My realistic expectations (and hope) is for a price around $2 US. But I will be pushing for $12.00 to cover pain suffering AND a public hanging of the GREEN WITCH and FAT LIPS in the Manono town square, this is non negotiable . All in my opinion .

 

[Winenut]

Personally I'm not super excited about royalties

I want the cash up front and FUCK being tied to anything happening in the DRC

That fucking place is a basket case and I don't want the value inherent in my shares paid "on the drip" by royalties with the chance that those DRC cunts pull some more fucking "fun and games" and "paper bag diplomacy" potentially fucking my financial future for a second time

 

[Doc]

Personally I'm not super excited about royalties

I want the cash up front and FUCK being tied to anything happening in the DRC

That fucking place is a basket case and I don't want the value inherent in my shares paid "on the drip" by royalties with the chance that those DRC cunts pull some more fucking "fun and games" and "paper bag diplomacy" potentially fucking my financial future for a second time

 

[Spikerama]

It’s the same reporter that broke the original story that Trump administration wants AVZ to get paid in any deal for Manono

None of y’all were questioning his sources then lol

The 1.5b is extremely believable and on brand for KoBold. The real question is why on earth would Nigel be considering this enough to send representatives to the meeting. Would need to be the greatest royalty deal of all time, possibly ever, to get my vote.

Thing is mate, your vote and mine will not have very much sway. The T20 own more than half the register, so it will come down to those who have hundreds of millions of shares and what they want in the end.

If I had that many shares, some of these lowball figures wouldn't sound too bad.

 

[BRICK]

He's probably making sh1t up to yank our chain . Could have been Tommy's bum chum for all we know .

HOLD... My fucking beer

Edit: oh fuck me his name is Brad not bob.... hah

 

[BRICK]

Personally I'm not super excited about royalties

I want the cash up front and FUCK being tied to anything happening in the DRC

That fucking place is a basket case and I don't want the value inherent in my shares paid "on the drip" by royalties with the chance that those DRC cunts pull some more fucking "fun and games" and "paper bag diplomacy" potentially fucking my financial future for a second time

Or there is a civil war or war with Rawanda

 

[Wil_Mar]

Hi All,

I know someone that knows Brad. Please see his response:

Someone’s probably leaked it to him on the proviso of anonymity

Brad wouldn’t speculate. It would’ve come from somewhere. Probably whoever told him about the US involvement.

 

[Wil_Mar]

Sounds legit. I know someone who knows someone that had a delicious steak & a nice full bodied red with Nigel.

Nigel refused to comment on the steak, apparently.

Mates a Journo. Simply asked about weather the pricing bit was pure speculation or source based.

 

[Retrobyte]

Personally I'm not super excited about royalties

I want the cash up front and FUCK being tied to anything happening in the DRC

If it goes down this way then you'd still have your shares and can sell them if you don't want to hold onto them to get future royalties. How the black market prices that is another story of course!

 

[Xerof]

Any agreed Royalties will go to the Company to whom they are agreed with, not directly to AVZ shareholders, but yeah 1 or 2% of sales revenue will be a steady amount of dosh, which should cover on-going corporate expenses

The asset sale will also go through the various entities back to AVZ, and AVZ MAY distribute part of it, but unless any TO is 100% for AVZ, we are going exploring somewhere else as a well cashed up going concern, with a relist

I want cash, and I want it NOW thanks

US1.5b doesn't cut my mustard

Our mate August on X has a good ball-park figure for Rio to chew on - 6b to 9b

 

[JasonM]

Mates a Journo. Simply asked about weather the pricing bit was pure speculation or source based.

I'm sure he got it from somewhere, doesnt mean its anywhere near the final bid. likely the first bid but not the last. Nigel will have to convince his shareholders, so any bid would need to stack up and past the pub test.

I think its difficult for those external to assess what fair value is at this point so I'm trying not to anchor to anything and obviously hoping its a good outcome. Certainly if its under a $1/$1.50, I'll be disappointed given the pain with all gone through. All that said though, I'm a motivated seller and want out, so dont want to wait for icid outcomes and the years it may take to collect the dosh, also dont want royalities.

In the end, just hoping I can get out and hoping Nigel gets us a good deal. I'm semi confident he'll stand his ground as he has over the last few years and not give into a low ball offer. There have been so many twists and turns over the last few years who knows whats ahead of us.