AVZ Discussion 2022

[Carlos Danger]

Definitely confused by this. The $50 million fine and arrest warrant cancelled on appeal but still being fined $25 mil and "Declares however admisssible and partially founded the appeals of the accused Graeme Johnston and Dathcom".....what does that actually mean ?

Cant immagine how anybody can be part guilty of forgery or is this tied in with the pending ICC case against Cong re the 15 %

The case had nothing to do with the merits of the SPA’s completion. It was a criminal case dealing with whether the share certificates showing AVZ at 75% were created legally. Original judge repeatedly says the merits need to go through arbitration.

The 25m fine is also pending the DRC Supreme Court hearing this case after ICC arbitration so will likely be removed. The judges view is that AVZ should have initiated arbitration. AVZ’s view is the SPA’s don’t say that and they had no choice under Congolese law but to create the share certificates.

Long story short it all depends on what the ICC says whether any of this matters

 

[marksmann007]

The case had nothing to do with the merits of the SPA’s completion. It was a criminal case dealing with whether the share certificates showing AVZ at 75% were created legally. Original judge repeatedly says the merits need to go through arbitration.

The 25m fine is also pending the DRC Supreme Court hearing this case after ICC arbitration so will likely be removed. The judges view is that AVZ should have initiated arbitration. AVZ’s view is the SPA’s don’t say that and they had no choice under Congolese law but to create the share certificates.

Long story short it all depends on what the ICC says whether any of this matters

Thanks for giving us an understanding of all this in layman’s terms Carlos.
It really is appreciated by many of us here I’m certain!

 

[Mute22]

100% my own bullshit theory, but here’s what might be going down:

1. Months ago, Kobold made a low-ball offer for the South, implying to AVZ that they didn’t have the funds to see the ICSID case through—essentially asking, why take the risk? It was a classic test-the-waters move, but AVZ swiftly rejected as they had other deals in the background.
2. Now, with CATH in the picture, Kobold is back at the table, strategically planting media narratives about a deal being in progress. The goal, to pressure the Trump administration, the DRC government, and AVZ shareholders into playing ball and putting them in the picture for a longer term deal.
3. The supposed deal is for the South only, requiring AVZ to forfeit any stake in the North. To Nigel, this was completely unacceptable, even if the price for the South was good, walking away with zero compensation for the North wasn’t an option.
4. At this point, it’s a game of chicken. The DRC government must decide: do they risk the ICSID case ruling in AVZ’s favor for the North exposing themselves, or do they open themselves up to potential litigation and backlash to powerful individuals from Zijin—justified or not?
5. For now, they’re taking a back seat, following protocol, and letting ICSID decide. If AVZ wins and regains its rights, the play is clear, strike a deal with Kobold for the South, while Zijin is forced to compensate AVZ for the North.
6. Nigel has decided with all the fuckery from all sides, and no genuine offer of actual value on the table, the best course forward is to proceed with the ICSID to put an irrefutable value and compensation claim in place which can anchor all negotiation.

So to cut a long story short, we will still be posting here come December.

 

[j.l]

So to cut a long story short, we will still be posting here come December.

Not sure how many TSE Decembers, Easters, champagnes, and steak & red wines I have left in me...

 

[TheGermanOne]

I know it's pointless, but I can't help but wonder what prompted DeBoss to issue his X post rallying the troops a few days ago...

It's pretty simple: I and maybe other user asked him for his opinion. Nothing more...

 

[Strongman]

The case had nothing to do with the merits of the SPA’s completion. It was a criminal case dealing with whether the share certificates showing AVZ at 75% were created legally. Original judge repeatedly says the merits need to go through arbitration.

The 25m fine is also pending the DRC Supreme Court hearing this case after ICC arbitration so will likely be removed. The judges view is that AVZ should have initiated arbitration. AVZ’s view is the SPA’s don’t say that and they had no choice under Congolese law but to create the share certificates.

Long story short it all depends on what the ICC says whether any of this matters

Thanks mate good to get this set out in laymans terms
As @ Marksmann said there are many people here who appreciate your insight

Cheers

 

[BRICK]

Not sure how many TSE Decembers, Easters, champagnes, and steak & red wines I have left in me...

I have another 6 years then ill start getting impatient

 

[Pokok]

Not sure how many TSE Decembers, Easters, champagnes, and steak & red wines I have left in me...

So as expected no Easter Eggs , just another pineapple F8c$ this bs

 

[Frank]

https://x.com/jehovahcar500/status/1904928510231404963

https://x.com/brendo726/status/1904989794347917387

https://x.com/brendo726/status/1905114840873709586

 

[Frank]

https://x.com/MichaelTshi/status/1904670931584422058

https://x.com/JAG80059733/status/1904833401410248935

 

[cruiser51]

100% my own bullshit theory, but here’s what might be going down:

1. Months ago, Kobold made a low-ball offer for the South, implying to AVZ that they didn’t have the funds to see the ICSID case through—essentially asking, why take the risk? It was a classic test-the-waters move, but AVZ swiftly rejected as they had other deals in the background.
2. Now, with CATH in the picture, Kobold is back at the table, strategically planting media narratives about a deal being in progress. The goal, to pressure the Trump administration, the DRC government, and AVZ shareholders into playing ball and putting them in the picture for a longer term deal.
3. The supposed deal is for the South only, requiring AVZ to forfeit any stake in the North. To Nigel, this was completely unacceptable, even if the price for the South was good, walking away with zero compensation for the North wasn’t an option.
4. At this point, it’s a game of chicken. The DRC government must decide: do they risk the ICSID case ruling in AVZ’s favor for the North exposing themselves, or do they open themselves up to potential litigation and backlash to powerful individuals from Zijin—justified or not?
5. For now, they’re taking a back seat, following protocol, and letting ICSID decide. If AVZ wins and regains its rights, the play is clear, strike a deal with Kobold for the South, while Zijin is forced to compensate AVZ for the North.
6. Nigel has decided with all the fuckery from all sides, and no genuine offer of actual value on the table, the best course forward is to proceed with the ICSID to put an irrefutable value and compensation claim in place which can anchor all negotiation.

Do not forget the fact finding mission by Ronnie Jackson, a close confidant of Trumpy, didn't make Felix look like the best thing since sliced bread. That assessment did finish up on trump's desk.
One would say Felix better goes to a place very, very, far away asap. And that is without waiting for the ICSID court decision.

If fat Felix believes people will save him he lives in Loeloe land, it will be him who is going to be thrown under the bus!

 

[Frank]

https://x.com/byukavuba/status/1904937128670216516

https://x.com/byukavuba/status/1904937346362978713

"The M23, with or without Rwanda, is currently virtually uncontested in the region" (Ronny Jackson)

President Donald Trump's envoy to Kinshasa and Kigali respectively held a press conference on Tuesday, March 25, at the end of his mission to the region.

This was an opportunity for him to share his observations during his stay in the DRC and Rwanda.

"The M23, with or without Rwanda, is currently virtually uncontested in the region," declared US Congressman Ronny Jackson.

The American added that "they (M23) do whatever they want, and the Congolese army doesn't even respond. In fact, they flee the M23 or, in some cases, lay down their arms and join them."

He stated that "the government in Kinshasa has no way of controlling this region at the moment." "He has neither the resources nor the capacity to really influence what is happening there," he added in substance.

 

[Hodlandwin69]

Ronny Jackson shining a light on corruption in the DRC is great and all, but it also highlights the real sovereign risk we made a bet on and is the reason we are in this mess. To make sure the whole world is aware of how fucked the DRC is also reduces the value of our investment due to bringing the sovereign risk to the forefront for the world to see, UNLESS the USA step in and somehow solve the complete corruption of the DRC.

Thus our fate is now bound to the Trump administration and we are at its mercy...... maybe was their plan all along....

 

[Mr Inappropriate]

NF has repeatedly said that we may have to forgo the North, and brushes it off as not a big deal due to the Mica

That comment was the exact moment i knew we were fucked.

 

[Winenut]

If we have to wait for a resolution or favourable finding in Gra Gra's forgery case before we can get a definitive offer and financial deal done in relation to AVZ and Manono then IMO there 'aint gonna be anything that can be even remotely viewed as a "Hail Mary and thank the Lord" moment on April 10th for shareholders as some have alluded to

 

[Hodlandwin69]

If we have to wait for a resolution or favourable finding in Gra Gra's forgery case before we can get a definitive offer and financial deal done in relation to AVZ and Manono then IMO there 'aint gonna be anything that can be even remotely viewed as a "Hail Mary and thank the Lord" moment on April 10th for shareholders as some have alluded to

where did April 10 come from?

 

[Winenut]

where did April 10 come from?

it's been on here with winks and such

 

[Mute22]

it's been on here with winks and such

They were almost right, just 10 days early...

Easter Date (2025)​

Sun, 20 Apr 2025​

 

[Colaci78]

https://www.linkedin.com/in/william-clowes-763729204/recent-activity/all/

Can you find this on the link

View attachment 80424

Thanks @Winenut

 

[JNRB]

If we have to wait for a resolution or favourable finding in Gra Gra's forgery case before we can get a definitive offer and financial deal done in relation to AVZ and Manono then IMO there 'aint gonna be anything that can be even remotely viewed as a "Hail Mary and thank the Lord" moment on April 10th for shareholders as some have alluded to

Darn it, so my uninformed speculative guess of April 4th is probably out then too . Let's see, I still think impending ICSID timeline creates pressure for a resolution sooner rather than later. I don't think DRC or Chinese will actually let their dirty laundry be aired any more than it has been.

Re GJ:
No one gives a fk about this case other than him. Relative to everything else that's going on it's small chump change stuff.
I have no idea why he has been noisy on X or LinkedIn or whichever - but I would speculate it's because he's trying to make sure resolution of his case gets bundled up with everything else.