AVZ Discussion 2022

[BEISHA]

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nice to see not only AVZ on top of the leader board but also ASN..........

 

[BEISHA]

I agree

The corollary to the statement "nobody has accessed the core library without permission" is that somebody "has accessed the core library with permission"

The statement in the announcement wasn't categorically a straight forward "nobody has accessed the core library"

So much going on recently

Can't believe the amount of coverage we are finally getting going from almost zero to front page news everywhere in less than a couple of months

Really hope this translates to a great outcome for all shareholders and a near term exit from the three year shit show

Did I mention I love using the word "corollary"......

or

 

[Rediah]

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or

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but its Corollary

 

[Carlos Danger]

So the question is what is "appropriate compensation" to AVZ, if there is someone with enough clout, to get all parties to align, with the right guarantees and AVZ waive all rights, disputes and transfer all ownership claims?

Last I heard, the size of the resource was 842Mt (with a lot of room for expansion), with a current price of around $900/t and a historical high of ~$5000/t (we are at the bottom of the lithium cycle but it wont stay there long, especially when self driving cars take off. For me, thats the real demand tipping point for petrol to electric shift, with ESS backup for unreliable power generation from renewables for countries like Aus - where somehow paying more for power locally but sending coal overseas for cheap power for them makes sense).
The infrastructure and security of the asset is also not in place, nor is the funding (given it relies on the ML for investment but we are/were literally past all hurdles to obtaining one). So potential buyers willing to take on that risk are limited (or can muscle in, in other ways like Zijin have - their time will come in court).

So factoring all that in, depending on how a deal can be structured, is it royalties and free carry 1-5%, could it be a $ sale price proportional to size of the asset and expected profits or a proportional value conversion of stock into the new owner for shareholders?
They have already mentioned Zinjin would get the north, kobold the south and AVZ would have to relinquish legal disputes, i.e AVZ would need to be adequately compensated for both north and south as part of resolution.

I am intrigued by the possibilities but not getting my hopes up on a "mega payday", but maybe I might be something back other than invested capital and a lesson (which was my previous target in all this mess).

KoBold haven’t mentioned anything about compensation being for both south and north. The only thing they said about the north is that Zijin should keep it. The idea that letting Zijin have the north will be done to avoid antagonising China is ludicrous. Trump wakes up every single day thinking of ways to antagonise Chyyyyna. More likely KoBold took one look at the mining code plus the waiver and realised the north has been gone for years imo

As for appropriate compensation let’s hope The Simpsons didn’t get this prediction of Bill Gates buyout strategy correct

 

[wombat74]

So the question is what is "appropriate compensation" to AVZ, if there is someone with enough clout, to get all parties to align, with the right guarantees and AVZ waive all rights, disputes and transfer all ownership claims?

Last I heard, the size of the resource was 842Mt (with a lot of room for expansion), with a current price of around $900/t and a historical high of ~$5000/t (we are at the bottom of the lithium cycle but it wont stay there long, especially when self driving cars take off. For me, thats the real demand tipping point for petrol to electric shift, with ESS backup for unreliable power generation from renewables for countries like Aus - where somehow paying more for power locally but sending coal overseas for cheap power for them makes sense).
The infrastructure and security of the asset is also not in place, nor is the funding (given it relies on the ML for investment but we are/were literally past all hurdles to obtaining one). So potential buyers willing to take on that risk are limited (or can muscle in, in other ways like Zijin have - their time will come in court).

So factoring all that in, depending on how a deal can be structured, is it royalties and free carry 1-5%, could it be a $ sale price proportional to size of the asset and expected profits or a proportional value conversion of stock into the new owner for shareholders?
They have already mentioned Zinjin would get the north, kobold the south and AVZ would have to relinquish legal disputes, i.e AVZ would need to be adequately compensated for both north and south as part of resolution.

I am intrigued by the possibilities but not getting my hopes up on a "mega payday", but maybe I might be something back other than invested capital and a lesson (which was my previous target in all this mess).

If Nigel is going for $10Billion through the ICSID , then I'd work backwards from that amount . So somewhere between $5Bil-$10Bil . Closer to $5 than $10 is my guess . IMO

 

[whales]

If Nigel is going for $10Billion through the ICSID , then I'd work backwards from that amount . So somewhere between $5Bil-$10Bil . Closer to $5 than $10 is my guess . IMO

What the ICSID decide is more to do with DRC being fined .
Kobold do not have to abide by the ruling of ICSID
They can offer what they see as appropriate compensation as at the moment no one else but the US can offer security for minerals .
I only see the ICSID having an influence on the reputation of Gates and BHP and the others to be not seen as" Unfair miserly " in the appropriate compensation statement.
How important is their reputation ?
Surely you do not have to go to ICSID and expose all the dirty laundry of the DRC to arrive at an agreement .
If it does then it shows that KoBold are trying to muscle in on the cheap.

 

[hedrox]

What the ICSID decide is more to do with DRC being fined .
Kobold do not have to abide by the ruling of ICSID
They can offer what they see as appropriate compensation as at the moment no one else but the US can offer security for minerals .
I only see the ICSID having an influence on the reputation of Gates and BHP and the others to be not seen as" Unfair miserly " in the appropriate compensation statement.
How important is their reputation ?
Surely you do not have to go to ICSID and expose all the dirty laundry of the DRC to arrive at an agreement .
If it does then it shows that KoBold are trying to muscle in on the cheap.

Kobold knows as well that CATH is lurking around. Cath is probably sitting in a waiting room to find out what the deal is, before they act. We don't know what's going on behind the curtain between CATH and the DRC. Kobold wants that deal done...asap. I can't imagine that Kobold will put an low ball offer on the table....
The US was sleeping for many years to secure critical minerals...they don't want to miss out on Manono...IMO

 

[wombat74]

What the ICSID decide is more to do with DRC being fined .
Kobold do not have to abide by the ruling of ICSID
They can offer what they see as appropriate compensation as at the moment no one else but the US can offer security for minerals .
I only see the ICSID having an influence on the reputation of Gates and BHP and the others to be not seen as" Unfair miserly " in the appropriate compensation statement.
How important is their reputation ?
Surely you do not have to go to ICSID and expose all the dirty laundry of the DRC to arrive at an agreement .
If it does then it shows that KoBold are trying to muscle in on the cheap.

I would expect/hope the pressure now on Felix (after AVZ raised legal funding +M23) gets a result prior to ICSID. End of the day you have to put a figure on it .I didn't make up the figure . $10Billion at this stage of the game has been bandied around quite a lot . If it is $10Billion then IMO it works backwards from that amount . That's how business usually works . $2.25 per share .

 

[Skar]

KoBold haven’t mentioned anything about compensation being for both south and north. The only thing they said about the north is that Zijin should keep it. The idea that letting Zijin have the north will be done to avoid antagonising China is ludicrous. Trump wakes up every single day thinking of ways to antagonise Chyyyyna. More likely KoBold took one look at the mining code plus the waiver and realised the north has been gone for years imo

As for appropriate compensation let’s hope The Simpsons didn’t get this prediction of Bill Gates buyout strategy correct

KoBold has reportedly proposed a compromise: AVZ would receive compensation for dropping its claims, Zijin would retain control of the northern section of Manono, and KoBold would develop the southern portion. The U.S. company also suggested that minority shares be held directly by the Congolese state rather than Cominière.

By extrapolation any compensation for AVZ dropping its claims would have to include the value of both north and south as part of that compensation amount or its not in shareholder interest to drop the claims (notwithstanding an appropriate discount of total value for immediacy if its a lump sum vs royalty or delayed payment arrangement).

There is leverage available here to show DRC as an investable region on the international stage if they make it right.

 

[wombat74]

Kobold knows as well that CATH is lurking around. Cath is probably sitting in a waiting room to find out what the deal is, before they act. We don't know what's going on behind the curtain between CATH and the DRC. Kobold wants that deal done...asap. I can't imagine that Kobold will put an low ball offer on the table....
The US was sleeping for many years to secure critical minerals...they don't want to miss out on Manono...IMO

If Felix needs the US to defeat M23, I don't see how Cath gets a look in .

 

[Spikerama]

If Felix needs the US to defeat M23, I don't see how Cath gets a look in .

There was an article on one of the trusted media sources that said something to the effect that a deal was being struck that involved 5 or 6 nations. Can't remember which one but maybe it is that complex.

 

[BEISHA]

but its Corollary

 

[Flight996]

Totally agree

That nearly 7 minutes of Ronny Jackson just fucking says it all

Ol' Ronny has a bit of a chequered past but he's on point in his comment on the DRC and particularly the situation in the east

Great summary and thanks to @Frank for the original post

Maybe I should attach the vid to my third correspondence to the senator the hon Penny Wong (aka Red Penny) when I remind her yet again that she has failed to respond in a meaningful way to any correspondence going back to 2022.

The only conclusion that I can draw for he failure to respond is that she and her department have a lot to hide.

Cheers
F

 

[Dave Evans]

KoBold haven’t mentioned anything about compensation being for both south and north. The only thing they said about the north is that Zijin should keep it. The idea that letting Zijin have the north will be done to avoid antagonising China is ludicrous. Trump wakes up every single day thinking of ways to antagonise Chyyyyna. More likely KoBold took one look at the mining code plus the waiver and realised the north has been gone for years imo

As for appropriate compensation let’s hope The Simpsons didn’t get this prediction of Bill Gates buyout strategy correct

I gave up posting here a while back Carlos, what brought me back is exactly what Bill Gates is doing in that Simpsons sketch you posted.

Now he and his mates are going to try and screw AVZ shareholder’s out of what the project is really worth while they make a killing out of it.

According to the news reports, KoBold said part of an agreement is that Zijin would pay us compensation for the north, hopefully that’s true obviously Gates and his rich mates believe they’re running the show and the money he and his mates have comes with a similar amount of power.

I doubt anyone as rich, powerful and high up in business as they are would be worried about their reputation @whales

Whoops…. Edit that last paragraph, they have that covered by already portraying themselves as the great saviours of the DRC, USA, anti corruption and last of all AVZ.

Don’t get me wrong, I reckon most shareholders will come out of deal with a good return on their investment, just not what we should get.

In the end Nigel will do his best for shareholders, let’s just hope what ever they offer that it comes with a tax benefit

 

[Flight996]

KoBold has reportedly proposed a compromise: AVZ would receive compensation for dropping its claims, Zijin would retain control of the northern section of Manono, and KoBold would develop the southern portion. The U.S. company also suggested that minority shares be held directly by the Congolese state rather than Cominière.

By extrapolation any compensation for AVZ dropping its claims would have to include the value of both north and south as part of that compensation amount or its not in shareholder interest to drop the claims (notwithstanding an appropriate discount of total value for immediacy if its a lump sum vs royalty or delayed payment arrangement).

There is leverage available here to show DRC as an investable region on the international stage if they make it right.

You make a very, very good point Skar.

It is incumbent on the DRC to prove to KoBold and the US administration that it is an investable nation.

As it stands, it has not done this, and no US miners have operating mines in the DRC, which is a very telling statistic. The first thing that King Felix-the-corrupt and his entourage of like-minded kleptocrats need to do is to put Kibeya back under his rock. With him off the chain, no meaningful discussions can commence.

Cheers
F

 

[Xerof]

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I have a Toyota Corollary,

2010, done 132k, in good nick

 

[Mute22]

AVZ News, Analysis, Announcements & Results | AVZ Minerals | AFR

The latest AVZ Minerals [AVZ] news, articles, data and analysis from The Australian Financial Review

www.afr.com

I’m sure these so-called "journalists" just happened to miss Bloomberg’s media alert—you know, from one of the biggest editorial powerhouses in the world?

Just a minor story about some of the richest billionaires on the planet trying to acquire the largest lithium deposit ever discovered. A key piece in a U.S. geopolitical chess move, securing control of the market in exchange for military assistance against M23 rebels. All this after a corrupt government and hostile Chinese interests tried to seize it, triggering one of the largest ASX market wipeouts in history.

But yeah, nothing newsworthy at all...

I fucking hate these spineless cucks if you can't tell, AVZ mustn't be part of the editorial teams personal portfolio.

If a deal does come together, we might get a begrudging mention. Probably buried between an article about avocado prices and a puff piece on dildo futures. Wouldn’t want to disturb the real hard-hitting journalism, after all.

 

[Dazmac66]

For f#ck sake Wino - just use simple words, you are dealing with 20000 Einstein's that invested in the DRC!

 

[CHB]

If Felix needs the US to defeat M23, I don't see how Cath gets a look in .

CATH is welcome to make an offer.

As long as the price is right CATH can have it and block the US for all I care.

 

[Hodlandwin69]

CATH is welcome to make an offer.

As long as the price is right CATH can have it and block the US for all I care.

I imagine mining asset sales are subject to approval from the host country and also right of refusal by other partners.
I.e. it's not getting sold to anyone but the USA companies if DRC is serious about minerals for peace