AVZ Discussion 2022

[Dave Evans]

Metals, Minerals, and Mining: How the CCP Fuels Conflict and Exploitation in Africa

The House Foreign Affairs Africa Subcommittee holds a hearing titled, "Metals, Minerals, and Mining: How the CCP Fuels Conflict and Exploitation in Africa," ...

www.youtube.com

Thanks @cruiser51 and @oxxa23

Thats well worth watching. The US is so desperate to get into the DRC and get their critical minerals that they can hardly get a word out without their desperation spilling into the meeting.

One interesting point made at 1hr 20min into the meeting is they mention that when the Chinese pay a bribe in the DRC wend are able to compete without competition.

At least now they’re finally coming out with what we have been saying for years.

Reports On Zijin Mining’s Violations

Read multiple reports on Zijin Mining’s violations Non fiction journalists reports on Zijin Mining 👇 Zijin’s poisoned legacy A toxic spill last year blackened the name of Chinese metals giant Zijin Mining. But, in Fujian, its broken promises and environmental failures have a longer history...

thestockexchange.com.au

Ongoing Corruption Makes International Investment Dangerous In The DRC

Why the DRC is too dangerous to invest in and why the DRC won’t prosper while corruption continues under the protection of the President and corrupt officials Corruption in the DRC has remained under the Tshisekedi government. The DRC government and mining sectors are rife with bribes...

thestockexchange.com.au

Artisanal Mining And Chinese Companies In The DRC

On top of forced evictions and serious human rights abuses by Chinese companies operating in the DRC, up to 2000 people per year die in Chinese owned artisanal mines every year...

thestockexchange.com.au

ZIJIN OPERATING IN THE DRC

Multiple media sources report that Chinese mining company Zijin Mining while operating in Africa (the DRC, Guyana and other states) and other countries has committed bribery, illegal fraud, threatening Mines.cd founding journalist with death, human rights and other violations in Kolwezi...

thestockexchange.com.au

x.com

x.com

What’s interesting is that at 6min 25sec into the video they say that Trump recently paused the enforcement of the Foreign Corrupt Practices Act

 

[Skar]

So the question is what is "appropriate compensation" to AVZ, if there is someone with enough clout, to get all parties to align, with the right guarantees and AVZ waive all rights, disputes and transfer all ownership claims?

Last I heard, the size of the resource was 842Mt (with a lot of room for expansion), with a current price of around $900/t and a historical high of ~$5000/t (we are at the bottom of the lithium cycle but it wont stay there long, especially when self driving cars take off. For me, thats the real demand tipping point for petrol to electric shift, with ESS backup for unreliable power generation from renewables for countries like Aus - where somehow paying more for power locally but sending coal overseas for cheap power for them makes sense).
The infrastructure and security of the asset is also not in place, nor is the funding (given it relies on the ML for investment but we are/were literally past all hurdles to obtaining one). So potential buyers willing to take on that risk are limited (or can muscle in, in other ways like Zijin have - their time will come in court).

So factoring all that in, depending on how a deal can be structured, is it royalties and free carry 1-5%, could it be a $ sale price proportional to size of the asset and expected profits or a proportional value conversion of stock into the new owner for shareholders?
They have already mentioned Zinjin would get the north, kobold the south and AVZ would have to relinquish legal disputes, i.e AVZ would need to be adequately compensated for both north and south as part of resolution.

I am intrigued by the possibilities but not getting my hopes up on a "mega payday", but maybe I might be something back other than invested capital and a lesson (which was my previous target in all this mess).

 

[Flight996]

I understand KoBold don’t want to offend Tshisekedi, but we tried that too and the fat arsehole still screwed us over. This time he’s desperate to get US support and get a deal done and KoBold are desperate for Manono’s lithium, that’s why they tried to get into our core library without permission last year.

Dave Evans
@DaveEva12049801

Hi Dave

Re: ...that’s why they tried to get into our core library without permission last year.

This issue has been on our radar since late 2024, and we are still no closer to the full story. AVZ has previously said that nobody has accessed the core library without permission, which we should believe.

However, I find this turn of phrase interesting because it also infers that someone has accessed it with permission.

If someone has accessed the core library with permission, was it KoBold or another potential suitor? Alternatively, was it Locke or CATH in order to see first-hand the cores that help to underscore AVZ's behemoth resource.

I just don't know, but would love to understand more about it, and in the process put one more piece of the jig-saw puzzle in place.

Cheers
F

 

[Dave Evans]

Hi Dave

Re: ...that’s why they tried to get into our core library without permission last year.

This issue has been on our radar since late 2024, and we are still no closer to the full story. AVZ has previously said that nobody has accessed the core library without permission, which we should believe.

However, I find this turn of phrase interesting because it also infers that someone has accessed it with permission.

If someone has accessed the core library with permission, was it KoBold or another potential suitor? Alternatively, was it Locke or CATH in order to see first-hand the cores that help to underscore AVZ's behemoth resource.

I just don't know, but would love to understand more about it, and in the process put one more piece of the jig-saw puzzle in place.

Cheers
F

I remember seeing the photos of them on Twitter and I think Kibeya was with them. I heard they tried to get in to the core library but were turned away. By security or whoever I can’t remember, perhaps someone else can confirm.

@Mute22 posted this on Monday

I’m checking out for the day now mate

 

[Winenut]

Hi Dave

Re: ...that’s why they tried to get into our core library without permission last year.

This issue has been on our radar since late 2024, and we are still no closer to the full story. AVZ has previously said that nobody has accessed the core library without permission, which we should believe.

However, I find this turn of phrase interesting because it also infers that someone has accessed it with permission.

If someone has accessed the core library with permission, was it KoBold or another potential suitor? Alternatively, was it Locke or CATH in order to see first-hand the cores that help to underscore AVZ's behemoth resource.

I just don't know, but would love to understand more about it, and in the process put one more piece of the jig-saw puzzle in place.

Cheers
F

I agree

The corollary to the statement "nobody has accessed the core library without permission" is that somebody "has accessed the core library with permission"

The statement in the announcement wasn't categorically a straight forward "nobody has accessed the core library"

So much going on recently

Can't believe the amount of coverage we are finally getting going from almost zero to front page news everywhere in less than a couple of months

Really hope this translates to a great outcome for all shareholders and a near term exit from the three year shit show

Did I mention I love using the word "corollary"......

 

[TheCount]

Can you post those Fat Tail Pricks walking out unsuccessfully mate ??

Possibly someone with Ai

That could Be hilarious to keep us going

It’s kinda happening hey

GLTAH

How many shares do they have now? Never forget the shit they put us through but they will have a huge payday when the people they tried to usurp come home with the goodies……

 

[Frank]

https://x.com/jonnnono/status/1904554526427820370

https://x.com/BenHeyes7/status/1904556912265580908

https://x.com/AfricanMiners/status/1904570369815798027

 

[Frank]

https://x.com/BenHeyes7/status/1904549740664217678

 

[Frank]

https://x.com/TheSentry_Org/status/1904545537912631688

https://x.com/DominicFurfaro/status/1904577399720993147

https://x.com/Matt_Kilpatrick/status/1904673965492363515

https://x.com/DominicFurfaro/status/1904645132089254037

 

[Frank]

https://x.com/emil_jens/status/1904556552440385900

https://x.com/OkendaPierre/status/1904657093413531838

https://x.com/MichaelTshi/status/1904646446290247721

*I stopped it here for good reason, Why ? Have a listen to find out

 

[mikejoho]

View attachment 80290

https://x.com/emil_jens/status/1904556552440385900

View attachment 80287

https://x.com/OkendaPierre/status/1904657093413531838

View attachment 80286

https://x.com/MichaelTshi/status/1904646446290247721

*I stopped it here for good reason, Why ? Have a listen to find out

View attachment 80289


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Well pointed out Frank, that grab from Ronny Jackson, after the point that you highlighted, demonstrates everything from Chinese corruption to a flawed legal system. It confirms everything AVZ have been up against. Would make a great little video to go along side the Celestin Keybaya tape! I know its been around for a while but the Celestin tape, I must say, is simply brilliant in its presentation and impact - well done Spike.

 

[Winenut]

Well pointed out Frank, that grab from Ronny Jackson, after the point that you highlighted, demonstrates everything from Chinese corruption to a flawed legal system. It confirms everything AVZ have been up against. Would make a great little video to go along side the Celestin Keybaya tape! I know its been around for a while but the Celestin tape, I must say, is simply brilliant in its presentation and impact - well done Spike.

Totally agree

That nearly 7 minutes of Ronny Jackson just fucking says it all

Ol' Ronny has a bit of a chequered past but he's on point in his comment on the DRC and particularly the situation in the east

Great summary and thanks to @Frank for the original post

 

[Strongman]

Totally agree

That nearly 7 minutes of Ronny Jackson just fucking says it all

Ol' Ronny has a bit of a chequered past but he's on point in his comment on the DRC and particularly the situation in the east

Great summary and thanks to @Frank for the original post

Yeah absolutely totally agree . It is such a huge relief to see that the shit show that our board has had to deal with over the past 3 years finally being recognized by the people that matter.
Encourage everyone to watch this video
Thanks @Frank for posting

 

[BEISHA]

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nice to see not only AVZ on top of the leader board but also ASN..........

 

[BEISHA]

I agree

The corollary to the statement "nobody has accessed the core library without permission" is that somebody "has accessed the core library with permission"

The statement in the announcement wasn't categorically a straight forward "nobody has accessed the core library"

So much going on recently

Can't believe the amount of coverage we are finally getting going from almost zero to front page news everywhere in less than a couple of months

Really hope this translates to a great outcome for all shareholders and a near term exit from the three year shit show

Did I mention I love using the word "corollary"......

or

 

[Rediah]

View attachment 80309

or

View attachment 80310

but its Corollary

 

[Carlos Danger]

So the question is what is "appropriate compensation" to AVZ, if there is someone with enough clout, to get all parties to align, with the right guarantees and AVZ waive all rights, disputes and transfer all ownership claims?

Last I heard, the size of the resource was 842Mt (with a lot of room for expansion), with a current price of around $900/t and a historical high of ~$5000/t (we are at the bottom of the lithium cycle but it wont stay there long, especially when self driving cars take off. For me, thats the real demand tipping point for petrol to electric shift, with ESS backup for unreliable power generation from renewables for countries like Aus - where somehow paying more for power locally but sending coal overseas for cheap power for them makes sense).
The infrastructure and security of the asset is also not in place, nor is the funding (given it relies on the ML for investment but we are/were literally past all hurdles to obtaining one). So potential buyers willing to take on that risk are limited (or can muscle in, in other ways like Zijin have - their time will come in court).

So factoring all that in, depending on how a deal can be structured, is it royalties and free carry 1-5%, could it be a $ sale price proportional to size of the asset and expected profits or a proportional value conversion of stock into the new owner for shareholders?
They have already mentioned Zinjin would get the north, kobold the south and AVZ would have to relinquish legal disputes, i.e AVZ would need to be adequately compensated for both north and south as part of resolution.

I am intrigued by the possibilities but not getting my hopes up on a "mega payday", but maybe I might be something back other than invested capital and a lesson (which was my previous target in all this mess).

KoBold haven’t mentioned anything about compensation being for both south and north. The only thing they said about the north is that Zijin should keep it. The idea that letting Zijin have the north will be done to avoid antagonising China is ludicrous. Trump wakes up every single day thinking of ways to antagonise Chyyyyna. More likely KoBold took one look at the mining code plus the waiver and realised the north has been gone for years imo

As for appropriate compensation let’s hope The Simpsons didn’t get this prediction of Bill Gates buyout strategy correct

 

[wombat74]

So the question is what is "appropriate compensation" to AVZ, if there is someone with enough clout, to get all parties to align, with the right guarantees and AVZ waive all rights, disputes and transfer all ownership claims?

Last I heard, the size of the resource was 842Mt (with a lot of room for expansion), with a current price of around $900/t and a historical high of ~$5000/t (we are at the bottom of the lithium cycle but it wont stay there long, especially when self driving cars take off. For me, thats the real demand tipping point for petrol to electric shift, with ESS backup for unreliable power generation from renewables for countries like Aus - where somehow paying more for power locally but sending coal overseas for cheap power for them makes sense).
The infrastructure and security of the asset is also not in place, nor is the funding (given it relies on the ML for investment but we are/were literally past all hurdles to obtaining one). So potential buyers willing to take on that risk are limited (or can muscle in, in other ways like Zijin have - their time will come in court).

So factoring all that in, depending on how a deal can be structured, is it royalties and free carry 1-5%, could it be a $ sale price proportional to size of the asset and expected profits or a proportional value conversion of stock into the new owner for shareholders?
They have already mentioned Zinjin would get the north, kobold the south and AVZ would have to relinquish legal disputes, i.e AVZ would need to be adequately compensated for both north and south as part of resolution.

I am intrigued by the possibilities but not getting my hopes up on a "mega payday", but maybe I might be something back other than invested capital and a lesson (which was my previous target in all this mess).

If Nigel is going for $10Billion through the ICSID , then I'd work backwards from that amount . So somewhere between $5Bil-$10Bil . Closer to $5 than $10 is my guess . IMO

 

[whales]

If Nigel is going for $10Billion through the ICSID , then I'd work backwards from that amount . So somewhere between $5Bil-$10Bil . Closer to $5 than $10 is my guess . IMO

What the ICSID decide is more to do with DRC being fined .
Kobold do not have to abide by the ruling of ICSID
They can offer what they see as appropriate compensation as at the moment no one else but the US can offer security for minerals .
I only see the ICSID having an influence on the reputation of Gates and BHP and the others to be not seen as" Unfair miserly " in the appropriate compensation statement.
How important is their reputation ?
Surely you do not have to go to ICSID and expose all the dirty laundry of the DRC to arrive at an agreement .
If it does then it shows that KoBold are trying to muscle in on the cheap.

 

[hedrox]

What the ICSID decide is more to do with DRC being fined .
Kobold do not have to abide by the ruling of ICSID
They can offer what they see as appropriate compensation as at the moment no one else but the US can offer security for minerals .
I only see the ICSID having an influence on the reputation of Gates and BHP and the others to be not seen as" Unfair miserly " in the appropriate compensation statement.
How important is their reputation ?
Surely you do not have to go to ICSID and expose all the dirty laundry of the DRC to arrive at an agreement .
If it does then it shows that KoBold are trying to muscle in on the cheap.

Kobold knows as well that CATH is lurking around. Cath is probably sitting in a waiting room to find out what the deal is, before they act. We don't know what's going on behind the curtain between CATH and the DRC. Kobold wants that deal done...asap. I can't imagine that Kobold will put an low ball offer on the table....
The US was sleeping for many years to secure critical minerals...they don't want to miss out on Manono...IMO