Too me on the whole seems positive.
The big question is not how does this value the company, it's how does the valuation compare to the initial CATH deal.
(rounded figures, i'm lazy)
First deal was 24% for $240mil. ~1 Bil MC
This deal 30% for $280mil. ~0.86 Bil MC
So despite AVZ's situation, and aaaall the shit we've been through, and still have to go through...
it seems CATH still willing to value the company similarly to their previous arrangement.
Sure, slightly less, circa 15%, but they' thrown in some other sweeteners to help us power through to the end of this shit show. That's a very positive sign to me. Don't use this price to try and estimate what our MC should be. Just as useless as trying to do the same thing when they made the first deal. OF COURSE they are getting a bargain! Because of what else they can bring to the table. They get a good deal but it increases the value overall because it increases the potential of what we can achieve.
But on the whole:
This is the best sign we've received in years that we are nearing the end of this thing, we're gonna survive it, get what we deserve!
Some more random thoughts.
This is still a great deal for the Chinese. They will get all the Lithium they need.
- They will get the lithium cheap, but this thing is so fk'ing huge i'm sure it's still gonna work out well for us holders.
- USA is fkd now. They did fk all to help us out so too bad for them. China will continue to control the worlds lithium supply. Maybe CATH caught wind of US or other companies sniffing around AVZ and so decided to just make a move and lock things in?
- Chinese companies often compete against each other. Time for CATH to squash Zijin.
- CATH can apply pressure in ways that AVZ can't. It's good to have a clear commitment from them that we're in this thing together and they are fully throwing their weight behind pushing forwards WITH AVZ.
- I'm not clear how the 'discount' works..