This is the first time I have seen the AVZ account like a LinkedIn post.
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I love playing chess— Of course, I’m a bit rusty, as I clearly missed a few moves before the suspension kicked in
That said, what KoBold is doing makes perfect sense to me. If I was trying to solve this problem, their approach is probably the most effective way to do it.
Their likely plan is to first secure the mining licence and then compensate AVZ. Imagine doing it the other way around—paying AVZ compensation upfront and then praying that the notoriously corrupt DRC government doesn’t hand the licence over to the Chinese. Especially when the minerals deal in Trump’s office hasn’t even been signed yet. By locking in the licence first, KoBold wipes out any remaining competition. I suspect that once the licence is granted, they’ll promptly announce a joint venture with Rio Tinto. I’d guess that Rio has already told KoBold they wouldn’t flinch even if AVZ asks for $5–6 billion USD (worst-case scenario for them)—it’s still a bargain for Rio, considering they’ll be selling lithium for the next 50 years. Meanwhile, KoBold secures critical lithium supply for the U.S., gains access to a massive area to explore with its AI tools, and firmly establishes itself as a major global player. Once AVZ receives fair compensation, we will drop all legal action. Legally speaking, KoBold hasn’t done anything wrong—as long as we don’t go all the way through ICSID or ICC. There’s a clear sense of urgency here. My feeling is that the U.S. wants this resolved and ready to announce once the minerals deal is signed in Trump’s office. I can’t imagine KoBold receiving a licence while Trump unveils a “huuuuge” lithium deal that’s still under international legal dispute. Looking at KoBold’s public messaging—especially their joint letter with AVZ and commitment to fair compensation—this feels like a carefully planned chess match. Shareholders have every reason to be anxious, given what we’ve been through, but I believe we’re very close to the finish line. KoBold’s path is risky—even though I think it’s the only viable one—but it puts us in a strong position to negotiate the final payout. If AVZ were to reject their offer and proceed with ICSID, KoBold would lose legal title—and face full liability. The same risk applies to Zijin in the northern tenement. I just can’t see KoBold taking that chance.
What I’m not sure about is whether AVZ’s recent statements reflect the legal team’s caution, or whether AVZ genuinely doesn’t have insight into the strategic “chess moves” KoBold is executing. I’m sure the AVZ team doesn’t enjoy being sidelined—especially as KoBold prepares to take control of a licence that should rightfully belong to us. Still, being the final piece of the puzzle may actually place us in the strongest position yet.
The downside? There won’t be a bidding war. But if KoBold wants this to work, they’ll need to act fast and pay a fair price. For KoBold and Rio the logic is simple: if you're asking $9–10 billion USD through the courts, you'd likely accept $5–6 billion USD now
If it all plays out this way, here’s the question: why would we pay 30% corporate tax to the DRC if under their own law, we don’t own anything? No project, no licence, no recognised asset. Yet I still have a feeling that the Australian government will still find a way to take 30% of our “fair compensation”—plus tax on our personal profits.
Also, just for fun, I like reading through Celestin's nonsense, so my translation of his latest tweet where he praises KoBold is " I am delighted how much KoBold is offering to pay me for 15% that AVZ had rights of first refusal "
Good luck, everyone!
