Let’s be clear — USD $6.2 billion isn’t some aspirational number. It’s AVZ’s formal ICSID claim, backed by DLA Piper — one of the world’s top legal firms — and reflects the fair market value of AVZ’s 75% stake in one of the largest undeveloped lithium projects on the planet. That’s the floor, not the ceiling.
KoBold’s $3B valuation is irrelevant. If they want Roche Dure, they’ll need to raise or borrow. The project’s value isn’t limited by what’s in KoBold’s bank account. And with US strategic backing and security guarantees now in place, the old sovereign risk discount no longer applies — if anything, DLA’s valuation is conservative.
Let’s not forget — shareholders have had their capital locked up and the company delisted, all under the premise of protecting shareholder value. We’ve been told time and time again that AVZ expects to win at ICSID and ICC. For management to now turn around and accept a lowball offer would be a complete betrayal of everything we’ve been led to believe.
It’s also clear that those pushing for a quick, cheap exit are mostly early holders. But many retail investors came in later, off the back of AVZ’s own guidance and public assurances. They stand to lose the most if this is wrapped up below fair value — and they won’t just cop it quietly.
There are also serious tax implications to consider. Depending on how any payout is structured — whether it’s a dividend, a buyback, or a liquidation — late-in investors could lose even more if it denies them access to the CGT discount. If the structure isn’t handled correctly, the ATO will take a much bigger bite — and that alone could trigger legal action.
A deal at $6B+ brings this to a clean close — and even at that level, KoBold is walking away with the deal of the century. With the scale of the resource and the long-term upside, they’ll still make more money than God.
