AVZ Discussion 2022

[Spikerama]

Now we've hit Ten, it's not if ... It's when.

 

[Winenut]

Translation and summary by GROK ( X AI)


The article from Actualité.cd, titled "Lithium de Manono: entre attentes et désespoir," discusses the significant lithium deposit in Manono, located in Tanganyika province, Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), which is one of the largest in the world. Despite its potential to drive economic development due to the global demand for lithium in rechargeable batteries for electric vehicles and other technologies, the project has faced numerous delays and challenges, leading to both hope and frustration among locals and stakeholders.
Key points from the article and related sources:

1. Economic Potential and Delays: The Manono lithium deposit, estimated at 842 million tonnes with a 1.61% lithium grade, is a critical asset for the DRC, especially given the global push for energy transition. However, exploitation has not yet started due to administrative blockages, legal disputes, and shifts in partnerships, leaving local communities waiting for promised economic benefits like jobs and infrastructure development.
2. Historical Context: Manono was historically a hub for tin mining under the Belgian colonial era and later through the state-owned Zaïrétain (now Cominière). The decline of tin mining, exacerbated by wars and mismanagement, left the region economically stagnant. The discovery of lithium by AVZ Minerals in 2016 sparked hopes of economic revival, but progress has been slow.
3. Corporate and Legal Disputes: Initially, AVZ Minerals, an Australian company, led the project through a joint venture with Cominière. However, conflicts arose, including accusations of AVZ hiding exploration data and mismanagement by Cominière. The DRC government shifted focus to a Chinese company, Zijin Mining, granting them a research permit in 2023, sidelining AVZ, which then pursued arbitration at the International Chamber of Commerce.

• In May 2025, KoBold Metals announced a framework agreement to acquire AVZ Minerals' interests in the Manono lithium deposit, signaling a potential exit for AVZ from the project. This follows years of legal and administrative challenges for AVZ, including disputes with the Congolese state-owned company Cominière and the Congolese government's decision to favor Zijin Mining, a Chinese company, with a research permit in 2023.
• The article highlights ongoing arbitration at the International Chamber of Commerce, where AVZ is challenging decisions that sidelined it from the project. A recent ruling ordered Cominière to pay AVZ €39.1 million ($42.6 million) for breaching emergency orders, but this payment does not resolve the broader dispute over the mining permit, which remains uncertain.
• Despite the potential for economic transformation in Manono through lithium mining, local communities remain frustrated due to delays, lack of tangible benefits like jobs or infrastructure, and environmental concerns, with no clear timeline for when exploitation might begin.

1. Impact on AVZ Minerals:
   • Potential Exit from Manono: The agreement with KoBold Metals suggests AVZ may be selling or transferring its stake in the Manono project, likely due to prolonged legal battles and loss of its mining permit to Zijin Mining. This could mark the end of AVZ’s direct involvement in what was once touted as a world-class lithium project.
   • Financial Compensation: The €39.1 million arbitration award provides AVZ with some financial relief, but it does not restore its operational control or permit rights, limiting its ability to capitalize on the project’s potential.
   • Reputation and Future Prospects: AVZ’s experience in Manono, marked by accusations of withholding exploration data and conflicts with Cominière, may damage its reputation in the DRC and other mining jurisdictions. The shift to KoBold Metals, a well-funded U.S. competitor, could further marginalize AVZ in the global lithium market.
   • Local Impact: The article notes that AVZ’s tenure did not deliver promised economic benefits to Manono, and its potential exit may further delay local development unless KoBold accelerates progress. However, AVZ’s departure could also open the door for a more stable partnership under KoBold, potentially benefiting the region in the long term.
2. The article underscores a mix of hope and despair in Manono, with AVZ’s likely withdrawal representing a significant setback for the company but a potential new chapter for the project under KoBold Metals. For the most current updates, checking posts on X or financial news about AVZ and KoBold could provide further clarity, as the situation remains fluid.

Thanks for translating but certainly not my favourite read overall

 

[TheCount]

Now we've hit Ten, it's not if... It's when.

View attachment 84995

 

[Skar]

Thanks for translating but certainly not my favourite read overall

Its expected for Kobold to try to get the best deal possible. Likewise its expected for Nige and Team to get the best deal possible for us... what I don't like is the lie that we need to rush a sale, accept whatever we can get, its our only pathway forward or we are desperate to sell, etc. Thats all pure fabricated tree shaking nonsense, we were in a very bad position until Cath fronted us. Vocal individual holders might want an out now but the company is fine to progress through legal issues and into fundraising and into production (the cases should be used to leverage a settlement or get compensation awarded, to again lead to a settlement like awarding ML etc).

If the deal on offer isn't right, I just hope Nige has enough backing form the top shareholders to walk out on it. Change is happening in Africa, and globally electrification is not going away (its accelerating now too). Now is the best time for buyers but in 1-3 years it will be a sellers market.

That said if a fair value offer is available, I am happy to sail away. I am not as optimistic as some but low number billions is an insult.

 

[ptlas]

This should get sent straight to Davy boy every time he runs his fat traumatised emotional trap trying to derail the forum. J19 literally just offered a truce to him, and not only did he tell him to fuck off he then dragged me into it out of nowhere. Fuck him, he needs to be pulled into line. Someone might need to ring ASIO, he's terrorising the forum

I take it that you've studied the methods of Henry Kissinger?

 

[ptlas]

Its expected for Kobold to try to get the best deal possible. Likewise its expected for Nige and Team to get the best deal possible for us... what I don't like is the lie that we need to rush a sale, accept whatever we can get, its our only pathway forward or we are desperate to sell, etc. Thats all pure fabricated tree shaking nonsense, we were in a very bad position until Cath fronted us. Vocal individual holders might want an out now but the company is fine to progress through legal issues and into fundraising and into production (the cases should be used to leverage a settlement or get compensation awarded, to again lead to a settlement like awarding ML etc).

If the deal on offer isn't right, I just hope Nige has enough backing form the top shareholders to walk out on it. Change is happening in Africa, and globally electrification is not going away (its accelerating now too). Now is the best time for buyers but in 1-3 years it will be a sellers market.

That said if a fair value offer is available, I am happy to sail away. I am not as optimistic as some but low number billions is an insult.

KoBold continually talking down price, while not actually talking it down, indicates that they are some way apart from AVZ on valuation.

Nige has ICSID and the funds to see it through, while he appears not to be pressured by SH into a poor deal.

He also has any number of counter offers/proposals, though we would do well to remember that their may not be any.

Battery storage is finally starting to ramp up, not least in China where they are now installing ridiculous amounts of solar.

The clock is ticking regarding M23 and ICSID for our DRC ' partners '.

NF has not blinked yet, I dont see him doing so now.

 

[wombat74]

Here’s the link and case number Wombles, it only takes a few seconds to get to the their latest update, just click on the blue link below and put the case number in

ICSID (Title Dispute)
Case No. ARB/23/20

ICSID (World Bank) Link

Case Details | ICSID​

@j.l you can see by the latest article about KoBold, they are still going on about AVZ being in dispute, and then they like to add, KoBold’s offer proposes to resolve the dispute by providing AVZ “appropriate compensation”

Basically always using the same words. We don’t know what they think appropriate compensation is, we only know they were offering up to $US1.5bn ($2.38bn) plus a royalty.

They just keep adding in the same comments: disputed license, no assurance of any outcome, they’re doing us a favour etc. I still think they’ll try and pay fuck all and then charge an arm and a leg to the highest bidder to form a JV with them once they’ve got the license. Imagine how much money the Saudi’s, Rio or another major would pay them for a 50% share in the project

Mate I don't think we have been seeing updated info re AVZ deal $$$,but regurgitations from the original media release . Maybe some new info re Kobold rallying their work force inside the DRC . Talking up their ambitions . My feel is a deal will be struck(if not already) and ICSID aborted . Hopefully the DRC gov/ Chinese don't f--k it up .

 

[LOCKY82]

Mate I don't think we have been seeing updated info re AVZ deal $$$,but regurgitations from the original media release . Maybe some new info re Kobold rallying their work force inside the DRC . Talking up their ambitions . My feel is a deal will be struck(if not already) and ICSID aborted . Hopefully the DRC gov/ Chinese don't f--k it up .

Thats my biggest fear that they manage to find a way to fuck this up, I reckon/hope it's too far gone now for anyone to stop, imo

 

[Spikerama]

AVZ vs DRC @ ICSID - Final Countdown

Countdown to the ICSID tribunal of AVZ vs DRC (Congolese).

avz-icsid-final-countdown.netlify.app

 

[Flight996]

In addition to doing some preliminary work in the DRC, KoBold is also getting a wriggle on in Zambia, particularly in the Zambia copper belt within the route of the proposed Lobito corridor railway.

KoBold is developing the Mingomba Cu/Au deposit, located near Chililabombwe in the Zambia Copperbelt. It is one of the world’s largest and highest-grade undeveloped copper deposits. Mingomba sits along the route of the Lobito corridor rail line.

KoBold is also exploring the Dumwa target in the Solwezi area also in NW Zambia. KoBold entered an earn-in agreement with Midnight Sun Mining (Vancouver, Canada) to prove-up and ultimately develop the copper project. The Dumwa project also lies within the Lobito rail corridor.

Cheers
F

​

 

[Strongman]

AVZ vs DRC @ ICSID - Final Countdown

Countdown to the ICSID tribunal of AVZ vs DRC (Congolese).

avz-icsid-final-countdown.netlify.app

Wow Spike that looks bloody amazing. Well done

 

[Spikerama]

Wow Spike that looks bloody amazing. Well done

Haha cheers dude but where have you been? This has been counting down since 75. I just updated the sunrise.

 

[Dave Evans]

Mate I don't think we have been seeing updated info re AVZ deal $$$,but regurgitations from the original media release . Maybe some new info re Kobold rallying their work force inside the DRC . Talking up their ambitions . My feel is a deal will be struck(if not already) and ICSID aborted . Hopefully the DRC gov/ Chinese don't f--k it up .

I agree Wombat, the biggest issue to do with KoBold is the valuation issue. They seem to continually add in risk factors (which all should be eliminated under the security for minerals deal), and casting doubt on the dispute.

As far as the dispute, we legally fulfilled all the legal requirements for the ML and were granted the mining decree. Then Cominiere violated our FROR, then they terminated the Dathcom JV because we argued against them violating FROR, then the DRC terminated our PR13359 for reasons that were caused by Cominiere.

All the DRC’s above actions are in violation of their own mining code, but KoBold never acknowledge any of those things. An article in The Australian referred to Manono as being the crown jewel in the security for minerals deal so the question remains, are KoBold going to pay fair value.

It’s not looking like anyone else is going to enter into a bidding war against KoBold when all along they have been suggesting they have already negotiated deals with AVZ, Tshisekedi, the US government and Rio. Like I’ve said before, everything points to them coming in with a less than fair value offer and then making a major profit by forming a new JV with a major mining entity.

Like everyone else, I want a deal done, I just don’t want us getting ripped off by the opportunistic self serving efforts of KoBold when we know they really don’t give a shit about AVZ or its shareholders

 

[PhatCatz]

It’s all laughable what kobold are saying. If what they are saying is so true than why are they desperate to get in on Manono.

The cherry on the cake is their concerns over ownership issues, yet they want AVZ to drop ISCID case which is THE key legal proceeding that will confirm our good legal title on this whole corrupted debacle.

It’s a complete and utter joke what they are trying to do. Making veiled underhanded threats through the media essentially saying it’s for our own good to hand it over now. I’m ashamed to see holders parrot that thought process and are willing to bend over for a cent in a dollar.

Nigel to keep the ISCID proceedings if they continue to bullshit us. We aren’t stuck in a 10 year battle to recoup value if we follow that path as some may claim. So many way for us to exit if we do follow through. Especially now as they’ve showed their greedy hand but with good legal title and a massive compensation claim we can use as leverage as what “fair value” will look like.

If anything, the DRC should be fucking grateful we are doing this . They can use the findings and undertake annuity into mining corruption within the Govenrmebt, do a complete clean out and kaboom. Investor confidence goes through the roof and in comes 100s billions in western and middle eastern dollars. Backed by the US security deal the chance of retaliation by some powerful corrupt minister with his own private military will be fairly slim.

 

[wombat74]

I agree Wombat, the biggest issue to do with KoBold is the valuation issue. They seem to continually add in risk factors (which all should be eliminated under the security for minerals deal), and casting doubt on the dispute.

As far as the dispute, we legally fulfilled all the legal requirements for the ML and were granted the mining decree. Then Cominiere violated our FROR, then they terminated the Dathcom JV because we argued against them violating FROR, then the DRC terminated our PR13359 for reasons that were caused by Cominiere.

All the DRC’s above actions are in violation of their own mining code, but KoBold never acknowledge any of those things. An article in The Australian referred to Manono as being the crown jewel in the security for minerals deal so the question remains, are KoBold going to pay fair value.

It’s not looking like anyone else is going to enter into a bidding war against KoBold when all along they have been suggesting they have already negotiated deals with AVZ, Tshisekedi, the US government and Rio. Like I’ve said before, everything points to them coming in with a less than fair value offer and then making a major profit by forming a new JV with a major mining entity.

Like everyone else, I want a deal done, I just don’t want us getting ripped off by the opportunistic self serving efforts of KoBold when we know they really don’t give a shit about AVZ or its shareholders

Mate I don't disagree with what you are saying . It's going to be Nigel's call .

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
“AVZ and KoBold are working cooperatively with all stakeholders, including the US government, the DRC government, and AVZ’s current development partner,” they said.

The Australian understands Mr Tshisekedi has given his blessing to the AVZ-KoBold deal.

AVZ will propose to the DRC government that they suspend the international arbitration proceedings to facilitate discussions on handing back its licence to clear the way for the KoBold deal.

Sources close to Mr Ferguson said he had been working tirelessly in Washington to secure the best possible deal for AVZ shareholders given there is no guarantee the DRC would adhere to any eventual arbitration ruling in AVZ’s favour."

 

[Strongman]

Haha cheers dude but where have you been? This has been counting down since 75. I just updated the sunrise.

Yeah thats what i meant. The sunset is perfect addition

 

[Spikerama]

Yeah thats what i meant. The sunset is perfect addition

Sunrise mate. Dawn of a new era. It's gonna get brighter.

 

[Doc]

Mate I don't disagree with what you are saying . It's going to be Nigel's call .

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
“AVZ and KoBold are working cooperatively with all stakeholders, including the US government, the DRC government, and AVZ’s current development partner,” they said.

The Australian understands Mr Tshisekedi has given his blessing to the AVZ-KoBold deal.

AVZ will propose to the DRC government that they suspend the international arbitration proceedings to facilitate discussions on handing back its licence to clear the way for the KoBold deal.

Sources close to Mr Ferguson said he had been working tirelessly in Washington to secure the best possible deal for AVZ shareholders given there is no guarantee the DRC would adhere to any eventual arbitration ruling in AVZ’s favour."

No ML, no stay of proceedings

 

[Skar]

It’s not looking like anyone else is going to enter into a bidding war against KoBold when all along they have been suggesting they have already negotiated deals with AVZ, Tshisekedi, the US government and Rio. Like I’ve said before, everything points to them coming in with a less than fair value offer and then making a major profit by forming a new JV with a major mining entity.

I don't think anyone else would even bid until ownership is resolved because what are they bidding on? or it would be a very short list (I would love to see Elon stick it to Bezos and come though though).

Still if Kobold can show that the DRC Gov are willing to come to terms, then even if we say no to Kobold and the DRC keep us locked up in ICSID, down the track as the market heats up, we make legal headway and there is proof of stability with the US-DRC mineral deal from other ventures and the project economics surge, I think at that point more US partners or buyers would emerge.

 

[wombat74]

No ML, no stay of proceedings
View attachment 85004

I think the whole deal will be done in one parcel . Not AVZ get the ML then do a deal with Kobold . Blink and you miss it / ML now in Kobold's name . No AVZ Cami update needed. DRC have egg on their face . They want AVZ gone . IMO