The reversal of Western mining companies in favor of the DRC and Zambia
For years, some large foreign mining companies have tried to reduce their presence in Central Africa, particularly in the DRC and Zambia after letting their Chinese competitors fill the void, they have done a 180 degree turn for the past few months, like Barrick, Anglo American or BHP.
With the energy transition and its growing need for various metals, the African jurisdictions deemed "at risk" now seem quite accessible.
On the sidelines of the Mining Indaba 2022 which was held in Cape Town last May, the CEO of Barrick Gold, Mark Bristow, returned to the next investments of his company, specifying that a particular emphasis is placed on copper and a region seems favorable to welcome the millions of dollars that the world's second largest gold producer wants to devote to the expansion of its copper portfolio: the copper belt located between Zambia and the DRC.
The leader, who in 2019 denounced the constant changes to the Congolese tax system, seems more than ever ready to go beyond to take advantage of the country's mineral potential.
The same goes for the Australian mining giant BHP, which has recently led several discussions to acquire the Western Foreland copper project, adjacent to the giant Kamoa-Kakula copper complex currently being developed by Ivanhoe Mines in the DRC.
This is also the case of the British holding company Anglo American, which also signed a memorandum of understanding in May with the mining junior Arc Minerals in Zambia. It concerns a joint venture to develop a copper-cobalt project in the North West Province.
A favorable situation
The interest in “green” metals is the first reason that justifies this new enthusiasm of Western companies for Zambia and the DRC.
These two countries concentrate a large part of African copper reserves and, as a result of the long disinterest of these same investors, several deposits remain untapped, but this is not the only reason, since the mention of an installation (for BHP) or a strengthening of the presence in the Central African copper belt (for the others) coincides with certain regulatory upheavals in other mining jurisdictions historically more attractive for these companies.
In Chile, the world's largest copper producer, a controversial bill is currently before the Senate and aims to increase the royalty collected by the State on the revenues of mining companies.
The situation seems even more complicated for mining investors in Peru, the world's second largest copper producer.
Arrived at the head of the country last year, the socialist president Pedro Castillo indeed built his electoral campaign on the idea of a better distribution of wealth between the mining industry and the populations, promising the Peruvians that he would review mining contracts to put an end to “looting”.
Since then, his government has talked about a tax targeting the “excess profits” of companies due to rising commodity prices, despite opposition from industry and part of the political class.
In Zambia a regime change also took place last year, but it is having the opposite effect on the mining industry to that seen in South America. President Hakainde Hichilema, a former businessman, has indeed chosen to place his mandate under the seal of improving the business climate in the country.
He announced a review of the tax regime applicable to the industry, which sparked enthusiasm from companies operating in the country who felt that this legislation was making the mining sector unviable and uncompetitive.
“We need to develop policies that will not disadvantage investors. We must ensure the stability of the economy so that the investor is happy", promises in the same vein its Minister of Mines, Paul Kabuswe.
While not all the announced measures have yet been implemented, it seems that the guarantees obtained by the sector are sufficient for the moment, as evidenced by the recent announcement of First Quantum Minerals.
Active in two copper mines in the country, the Canadian mining company had made new investments conditional on an improvement in the regulatory framework.
On the DRC side, the situation is slightly different.
The 2018 mining code, which has been criticized for having notably ratified the increase in royalties on copper and cobalt revenues, is still in force.
In addition, President Tshisekedi announced in May 2021 his intention to review the mining contracts concluded under the previous regime “to seal win-win partnerships”.
However, the country's immense copper and cobalt reserves make it impossible to ignore even as demand soars and several analysts point to risks of shortages that will drive prices higher in a few years.
Avoid past mistakes
The global commodities market is at the dawn of a new super cycle, according to several sector specialists.
While not all metals may be affected, we have nevertheless been witnessing the first signs of this prediction for two years with the historic rise in the price of copper.
For the two leading African producers, this time it is a question of not repeating the mistakes made during the super cycle of the 2000s by taking advantage of the interest of these large mining groups to invest in local processing.
This would make it possible to develop the local industrial fabric in these two countries while adding value to exported goods.
Zambia and the DRC seem to have understood this, since the two countries concluded in April a memorandum of understanding to develop a supply chain for materials for electric cars.
This sector could consume 4 million tonnes of copper annually by 2040 (compared to 300,000 tonnes in 2020) according to CRU Group, and 320,000 tonnes of cobalt by 2026 (compared to 175,000 tonnes in 2021, according to the Cobalt Institute.
www.mediacongo.net
We can't forget the Truck loads of very valuable "Rin Tin Tin"
Food for thought
Frank