AVZ Discussion 2022

[Pokok]

New calc

$10b USD - no tax = $10b USD

$10b USD x 1.6 (USDAUD) = $16b AUD

$16b AUD / 3.5b SOI = $4.57 AUD

$4.57 AUD x 4.2352 (verified and confirmed shit fucker premium) x 0.62 (convert back to USD) = USD $12...$12....$12!!!

Apologies to @Spikerama for quoting a price target

I still enjoy your calculations

 

[Winenut]

I'll add the 4.2352 premium to my equation when you add the missing U to your flow chart

u U U U U

View attachment 79994

Your wish is clearly my command.....

 

[hedrox]

Where is the new Equities Club report ???

 

[Winenut]

New calc

$10b USD - no tax = $10b USD

$10b USD x 1.6 (USDAUD) = $16b AUD

$16b AUD / 3.5b SOI = $4.57 AUD

$4.57 AUD x 4.2352 (verified and confirmed shit fucker premium) x 0.62 (convert back to USD) = USD $12...$12....$12!!!

Apologies to @Spikerama for quoting a price target

Go on....

$4.57 AUD x 4.2352 (verified and confirmed shit fucker premium) x 0.62 (convert back to USD) = USD $12...$12....$12!!!

Who whipped out their calculator and checked it????

Be honest....

 

[Spikerama]

Go on....

$4.57 AUD x 4.2352 (verified and confirmed shit fucker premium) x 0.62 (convert back to USD) = USD $12...$12....$12!!!

Who whipped out their calculator and checked it????

Be honest....

Who do you think you are Wino? Rachel Riley?

 

[Carlos Danger]

@Carlos Danger and/or @9cardomaha

One matter that still irks me:

The original case to ICC concluded that Jin Cheng was not a shareholder in DATHCOM etc etc, which according to announcements they were appealing to the Paris Court of Appeal. (this despite all the evidence that they seemingly gave it up and instead gave some crook a cheque for 70m which gave them the JV on 15575. Haha, what a shitfuckery thats turning into)

I read somewhere that they have yet to file their papers, and I read somewhere else that they only have a drop dead date this month sometime to actually file.

My question is if they aren't a SH in Dathcom, how come all these other cases are still live and progressing, i.e. the fucking rejoinder to bring Cong/Kabila via Dathomir into the frame as well. Is it simply because unless, or until, their appeal is dropped or dismissed, everything continues as if the ICC finding isn't yet set in concrete?

For Jin Cheng I think it is because the substantive question of whether AVZ's FROR was violated is yet to be determined

The AVZI Successfully Defends Against Jin Cheng ICC Proceedings announcement says:

'On 15 March 2024, the ICC tribunal found in favour of AVZI, ruling that, for the purposes of jurisdiction, the status of a shareholder in Dathcom is determined by its registration in Dathcom’s internal share register and that the ICC tribunal did not have jurisdiction to preside over the proceedings commenced by Jin Cheng.'

This is backed up by the reasoning of the arbiters in last weeks ICC Partial Award Decision

'Moreover, while article 10.1 of Dathcom's Articles of Association 3.1 states that fully paid- up shares are only negotiable after the company has been registered with the RCCM, article 10.2 specifies that "Ownership of shares results from their entry an account in the name of the holder on the registers held for this purpose at the registered office.

Article 10.3 of the Bylaws also states that "The transfer is effected with regard to third parties and the Company, by the registration of the shares concerned in the share account of the acquirer in the registers held for this purpose at the registered office.

Thus, according to these provisions of Dathcom's Articles of Association, registration with the RCCM is not a condition for the validity of the transfer of shares, but it is the registration in the company's share register that is authoritative.'

The question of the FROR violation will be answered in the Cominiere ICC case so Zijin will be using that technicality to proceed with the damages case as ending it now could potentially violate their rights. Dathomir have likely been brought in to the damages case due to the fact that they have their own ongoing arbitration proceeding to determine whether they are still a shareholder of Dathcom. Spoiler alert they're not.

 

[Winenut]

Who do you think you are Wino? Rachel Riley?

You didn't answer the question....

 

[Dave Evans]

For Jin Cheng I think it is because the substantive question of whether AVZ's FROR was violated is yet to be determined

The AVZI Successfully Defends Against Jin Cheng ICC Proceedings announcement says:

'On 15 March 2024, the ICC tribunal found in favour of AVZI, ruling that, for the purposes of jurisdiction, the status of a shareholder in Dathcom is determined by its registration in Dathcom’s internal share register and that the ICC tribunal did not have jurisdiction to preside over the proceedings commenced by Jin Cheng.'

This is backed up by the reasoning of the arbiters in last weeks ICC Partial Award Decision

'Moreover, while article 10.1 of Dathcom's Articles of Association 3.1 states that fully paid- up shares are only negotiable after the company has been registered with the RCCM, article 10.2 specifies that "Ownership of shares results from their entry an account in the name of the holder on the registers held for this purpose at the registered office.

Article 10.3 of the Bylaws also states that "The transfer is effected with regard to third parties and the Company, by the registration of the shares concerned in the share account of the acquirer in the registers held for this purpose at the registered office.

Thus, according to these provisions of Dathcom's Articles of Association, registration with the RCCM is not a condition for the validity of the transfer of shares, but it is the registration in the company's share register that is authoritative.'

The question of the FROR violation will be answered in the Cominiere ICC case so Zijin will be using that technicality to proceed with the damages case as ending it now could potentially violate their rights. Dathomir have likely been brought in to the damages case due to the fact that they have their own ongoing arbitration proceeding to determine whether they are still a shareholder of Dathcom. Spoiler alert they're not.

Carlos do you remember @9cardomaha saying something along the lines of the ICSID being able to seize any royalties Zijin would pay to the DRC once they were in production?

 

[robface]

Carlos do you remember @9cardomaha saying something along the lines of the ICSID being able to seize any royalties Zijin would pay to the DRC once they were in production?

Why would they need to wait until Manono lithium to be in production when Zijin has established mines in the DRC already?

And ICC fines for Zijin as ICSID respondents are DRC?

Apologies if I've got my cases mixed up.

 

[Carlos Danger]

Carlos do you remember @9cardomaha saying something along the lines of the ICSID being able to seize any royalties Zijin would pay to the DRC once they were in production?

If you have assets and no dry powder, what do banks do to lend you money?

If Cominiere don't pay securitization, the entire case goes in favour of AVZ?

On top of this, lithium produced could be legally ambiguous and many international companies may not consider dealing with them - not 100% conflict minerals of course, but along those lines, it makes their production and distribution very narrow.

I'm sure 20m securitization would be paid for by Zijin in anycase. then try and delay the verdicts.... This saves face, makes the timeline longer etc etc.

15775 has dividend payment to Cominiere in the JV, advance funds etc. If Z doesn;t pay them, could also turn them back to us.

I'd suggest doing your own research and coming to some conclusions. But funding and obtaining damages is pretty standard - also getting the new partners to foot the bill is super common for those snack munchers.

Taking a step back, we have ongoing cases against them so non-payment on emergency rulings will look poorly on them - so logically they can't just do a runner.

If they do a runner*, because lets face it they probably don't care about ICC cases and its just to drain our funds - I've mentioned before that ICC and ICSID have the power to intercept payments from most international banks and institutions. DLA just need to raise this point to the courts - and wouldn't you know it, if you don't pay according to ICC and ICSID, they don't really favour you going forward.

*This is a possibility for sure.... Refusing to pay is classic DRC, playing the victim, crying poor etc. but there is precedence for intercepting payments which is easy to argue.

For the way payments work, if the damages amount is high, they will draft the payment scheme. If its payment to the Arbitrator and legal teams, its a lump sum immediately, but won't go through AVZ, payable directly to DLA and ICC/ICSID.

We can even ask the courts to force securitization at the next hearings which puts a portion of the payable amount into escrow and will be paid upon a verdict. I'd say with the penalty ticking up to 100mil, we could ask for 20mil as security without much issue - then just work on the verdict and 20mil instant in the bank with the following 80mil that we have to chase up.

Obviously leaving it to DLA and BOD to decide, but that's my takeaway, and why i'm cool as a cucumber.

DYOR.

First domino to fall is now looking like the increased emergency injunction, which conveninently is 24th Nov. Cominiere managed to delay submissions to 9th of November... + 15 days, whoops missed the AGM.

They didn't even do anything particularly clever, just copped the late submission fine of a few thousand euros - paid for by Z. But at least it gives a bad impression for the arbitrator who was already favouring AVZ.

DLA Piper earning their keep, and doubling down on the favourable ruling for 50k penalty - in the modified injunction are things like rolling back 15775, verdict on hydro and increasing penalty to 150k as i've mentioned. Everyone worried about enforcement needs to understand how injunctions with penalties work.....

The injunction is provisional and will continue to count upward until AVZ decides to go before a tribunal to enforce. Once it is enforced, the counter stops and we are paid whatever sum we are owed, along with any verdicts which are stipulated in the injunction. ICC has a very high enforcement rate for injunctions and only under extreme circumstances does an injunction not get enforced when it goes to tribunal.

As for monetary fines, these are placed on Cominiere but ICC's jurisdiction gives it power over all major international financial institutions. So Z wants to pay money to C.... it'll get flagged and paid to AVZ until the fines are all paid off. So the money is going to come our way regardless... not optimal but could be fucking worse.

On ownership rights, ICC are a little weaker, the judgements need to be taken back to local DRC courts for enforcement.... this is a pretty big issue because i don't think anyone here trusts the DRC judicial system. But silver lining is, if DRC local courts refuse to enforce, we have grounds to recalculate to monetary damages, and the ICC can just continue adding to the monetary penalty. Again, not optimal but better than nothing.

My assumption is that if we can get the monetary penalty high enough upon enforcement, then Cominiere can't pay and Z doesn't want to foot the bill, then we can negotiate something.

On another note, we submitted an emergency request to have the 15% ICC case withdrawn. Z has managed to delay that to early decemember

So this is where it gets a little tricky - ICC's power over DRC land transfer and ownership rights is 50/50 from what i can tell. But that is up to the arbitrator, if they do not believe the DRC will follow through, then they pretty weak from what i can tell, but ICC and ICSID for that matter will generally rule for monetary damages as remedy.


this relates to my enforcement showerthought. They aren;t losses unless you sell type of deal, until we request to enforce the emergency injunction.

And for monetary penalties, ICC has jurisdiction over 90% of banking institutions, and can block or hold transactions from ZJ to Cominiere, or any other organiztion to Cominiere to recoup damages.

These are the main posts when 9card explained the ICC enforcement process

Basically ICC has power to seize any payments through banking institutions made to Cominiere including within Manono Lithium from Zijin

Either that or Zijin will just pay up on Cominiere's behalf to avoid sanctions against their product in western markets

 

[Frank]

https://x.com/anonymous_seeu/status/1903607502216077409

 

[Frank]

https://x.com/brendo726/status/1903524950448963963

 

[ptlas]

Go on....

$4.57 AUD x 4.2352 (verified and confirmed shit fucker premium) x 0.62 (convert back to USD) = USD $12...$12....$12!!!

Who whipped out their calculator and checked it????

Be honest....

I think that you're going to need to factor in the ( probably ) rising lithium price over the next months. Hopefully, not years.

As a few have said, and I've banged on about, probably incessantly, do not talk the price down and do not let it be dictated by outside parties.
It is a sign of weakness, and this is now as much about psychology as anything else.

@wombat74
I would differentiate between FT / DRC elites' interests and those of the DRC.
He / they have proven over many years that they don't GAF.
Rebels in the East or any other issues are secondary to them staying out of gaol ( almost a given ), stayng in power and continuing to collect those parcels that one pays 25c for in Woolies.

The Chinese will also be up to their old tricks.
When one considers how few of their shitty actions over the last few years were predicted, it inevitably means that there are more twists and turns coming.

Consequently, FT's actions are totally unpredictable.
He will act out of self-interest. Whatever that is.

 

[Mute22]

Thanks Carlos, I’ve actually got some information I wasn’t going to share with anyone but I owe you a token of gratitude so here’s what I found out

Celestin Kibeya was seen phoning the Ministry of Mines shortly after taking Zijin’s bribe and walking out of Zijin’s office with the $2 million

Until now the photographer kept the photo confidential but finally decided to release it this morning


View attachment 80007

This may be construed the wrong way...

 

[Carlos Danger]

Why would they need to wait until Manono lithium to be in production when Zijin has established mines in the DRC already?

And ICC fines for Zijin as ICSID respondents are DRC?

Apologies if I've got my cases mixed up.

These are the main posts when 9card explained the ICC enforcement process

Basically ICC has power to seize any payments through banking institutions made to Cominiere including within Manono Lithium from Zijin

Either that or Zijin will just pay up on Cominiere's behalf to avoid sanctions against their product in western markets

View attachment 79996
View attachment 79999
View attachment 79998
View attachment 79997

The partial award at the ICC was against Cominiere. The award is due to the ICC initially not us.

Therefore for this particular award the ICC can only recoup from Cominiere before paying to AVZ through the lawyers

It doesn't have to be money paid from profits in production with Zijin it can be any money paid to Cominiere by anyone that the ICC will be able to intercept

 

[PhatCatz]

From the Equities Club this morning

AVZ’s Manono gets even messier — KoBold makes its move​

Last week, Donald Trump muscled into the AVZ Minerals' saga. This week, Bill Gates fancied a piece of the world's largest hard rock lithium deposit. The battle for Manono just went from wild to surreal.

The Gates-backed KoBold Metals has now thrown their hat into the ring, bidding for a majority stake in the monster Congolese lithium project. The US-based private company wants to buy in through Cominiere, the state-owned company with 30% of the asset.

​

The never ending saga of Manono. Source: Bloomberg

Why is this huge? KoBold is one of the most well-capitalised and technically sophisticated entrants in the critical minerals space. Their interest validates the scale and strategic importance of Manono.

Rarely has a mining asset become such a geopolitical prize. The US wants Manono out of Chinese hands, and Western governments are keenly aware of what's at stake - the world's largest hardrock lithium deposit in an increasingly lithium-hungry world.

With a resource of over 400Mt at 1.65% Li₂O, Manono remains one of the most coveted lithium assets on the planet. The fact that KoBold would enter this legal minefield speaks volumes about the deposit's significance.

“KoBold would welcome the opportunity to develop the asset.”
- KoBold Chief Legal Officer Sandy Alexander wrote to Congo President Felix Tshisekedi’s chief of staff in January 2025
The possibility of KoBold unlocking this asset with the technical and financial support of Silicon Valley's cleantech elite may accelerate development and revive stalled infrastructure planning.

The implications for AVZ shareholders are complex.

It's unlikely KoBold would buy out AVZ directly, as AVZ's equity interest in Manono has been under dispute since 2022. Instead, KoBold's deal appears aimed at acquiring control through Cominiere, effectively bypassing AVZ altogether.

Unfrotunately this raises the possibility that AVZ shareholders could be sidelined entirely,unless the company succeeds in international arbitration or reaches a negotiated settlement. Both of which are very possible outcomes.

If AVZ wins its case or forces a settlement, compensation could come from Cominiere, the DRC government, or potentially KoBold, depending on how many overlapping claims are resolved.

However, if KoBold moves forward and AVZ is unable to reassert its ownership stake, shareholders could be left holding equity in a company with no asset. The next 3–6 months are crucial, with arbitration outcomes and political negotiations likely to determine whether AVZ shareholders recover any value.

The Manono saga has now drawn in Chinese mining giants, the US government, a tech billionaire, and 21,000 stranded shareholders. The world's biggest lithium deposit has become a corporate and geopolitical battlefield.

​

The legal win last week was further validation in AVZ’s management to pursue Manono. Source: Reuters.com

Yeah nah.

 

[Dave Evans]

This may be construed the wrong way...

I don’t think anything makes any difference Mute. The corrupt arseholes over there are running the show and playing nice with them never made any difference, still point taken and post deleted

 

[Mute22]

I don’t think anything makes any difference Mute. The corrupt arseholes over there are running the show and playing nice with them never made any difference, still point taken and deleted

I get it.

We've taken the high road this far, let's see it through.

Trust me, I'll share my real thoughts on the larger picture when this is all done.

 

[Spikerama]

Alright folks head over to the assets folder. On the end of page 3, I have put the ICSID Final Countdown Counter.

I'm done with it for now. Works pretty well. It will look pretty ominous once it gets down to a few days. Hopefully we won't need it by then but I'm not holding breath that's for sure.

AVZ Assets for Social Media Campaign

Here's another one for the set.

thestockexchange.com.au

 

[cruiser51]

---

AVZ’s Manono gets even messier — KoBold makes its move
​

Last week, Donald Trump muscled into the AVZ Minerals' saga. This week, Bill Gates fancied a piece of the world's largest hard rock lithium deposit. The battle for Manono just went from wild to surreal.

The Gates-backed KoBold Metals has now thrown their hat into the ring, seeking a stake in the monster Congolese lithium project. The US-based private company has proposed a deal that excludes Cominiere, instead requesting the Congolese government take a minority shareholding in the project. 1



The never ending saga of Manono. Source: Bloomberg
Why is this huge? KoBold is one of the most well-capitalised and technically sophisticated entrants in the critical minerals space. Their interest validates the scale and strategic importance of Manono.

Rarely has a mining asset become such a geopolitical prize. The US wants Manono out of Chinese hands, and Western governments are keenly aware of what's at stake - the world's largest hardrock lithium deposit in an increasingly lithium-hungry world.

AVZ Minerals: From $6 million to a $4.5 billion delisting. Inside the Congo lithium saga​

Equities Club
·
7 May 2024
Read full story
With a resource of over 400Mt at 1.65% Li₂O,2 Manono remains one of the most coveted lithium assets on the planet. The fact that KoBold would enter this legal minefield speaks volumes about the deposit's significance.

“KoBold would welcome the opportunity to develop the asset.”
- KoBold Chief Legal Officer Sandy Alexander wrote to Congo President Felix Tshisekedi’s chief of staff in January 2025
The possibility of KoBold potentially unlocking this asset comes amid a complex legal backdrop. Recently, AVZ secured a partial arbitration victory, winning €39.1m in penalties against Cominiere,3 which adds another layer to the ongoing negotiations.

The implications for AVZ shareholders are complex.

Current developments indicate ongoing negotiations, with AVZ currently engaged in arbitration proceedings and preliminary discussions with potential US-based funding partners. The company's CEO, Nigel Ferguson, was notably copied on KoBold's official communication.

If AVZ wins its case or forces a settlement, compensation could come from Cominiere, the DRC government, or potentially KoBold, depending on how many overlapping claims are resolved.

While the legal proceedings continue, AVZ remains actively engaged in multiple arbitration processes to protect its interests in the Manono project.

The next 3–6 months are crucial, with arbitration outcomes and political negotiations likely to determine whether AVZ shareholders recover any value.

The Manono saga has now drawn in Chinese mining giants, the US government, a tech billionaire, and more than 21,000 shareholders hanging on every development. The world's biggest lithium deposit has become a corporate and geopolitical battlefield.



The legal win last week was further validation in AVZ’s management to pursue Manono. Source: Reuters.com