AVZ Discussion 2022

[Hudnut]

I'll be happy once I have details of how we stop the DRC etc from reneging on any deal that might be done.

Mining rights that are granted and removed once, can be granted and removed twice.
Promises to pay can be ignored.

I'm sure international lawyers have ways that can ensure this is locked in prior to stopping ICSID/ICC, but I'd like to know what the mechanism is.

Not keen on going back to square one and starting again.

 

[Azzler]

So you think:
- CATH is going to build a mine on HALF the tenement we're entitled to
- So they can let Zijin build a SEPARATE mine right next door
- ...and then buy stuff from Zijin that they could have owned and mined themselves??

Not a chance.
We fought for the north as a tiny Minnow.
CATH will squash Zijin, exert the same CCP pressure that Zijin does and then some, offer hydroxide plant as a sweeteners, and we will develop the whole site.

I really don't understand why people think the involvement of CATH thinks we're suddenly likely to just roll over and give up the north.
WE want it all
CATH wants it all.

Why - the hell - would we cave now.

If I'm understanding the situation correctly, it's not caving in, it's realising the complete mess this is and taking the best way out, with the primary intention of making money and not that of seeking justice.

It's believed that if Zijin are told to pack their bags, they sue DRC.
Added to that many DRC corrupt officials can be exposed by Zijin if they so choose to.
Zijin have deliberately put themselves into this position for this exact reason, leverage.

So a negociated outcome where everyone gets a piece of the pie is the only sane path forward.
There is an undercurrent amongst the murmers I hear that Zijin will be made ot pay for the north, and wont just get it all for their Bribes they've payed. However this is just murmers.

CATH may yet manouver against Zijin, I hear they don't like them very much, and as wealthy as Zijin are, CATH are wealthier still by a fair bit.
I'm sure they want the lot, but they also don't want to be left out of this massive deposit.
You make out like they will take the lot or nothing at all, that's absurd. This is an important asset to battery manufacturers to secure a supply from.

 

[Yaseen]

I agree . None of this changes the fact the CCP have the DRC Gov under the thumb . Way I see this playing out is Zijin keep the North , AVZ/CATH take Roche Dure and a deal is done where both parties have access to power . All court cases dropped . All fines dropped . Cominiere is 90% owned by the DRC Gov . Celestine Kibeya is but a tiny turd floating in tolate's toilet . IMO

or, we get the ML, and sell for $2 to Zijin. They may come to the table in a desperate attempt to clear their name and have China own the whole thing, CCP are clearly keen on this outcome considering the lengths theyve gone to thus far

I'd be content with $2

 

[Mute22]

I know we are in a legal battle and not a war for public opinion, but fuck me it would be nice to get some fair media coverage within Australia.

Does anybody know if AVZ is providing a direct media release or doing outreach to amenable journalists for good news? Clearly all the AFR employees have it out for us and are all in on IGO/LTR.

You would think the largest battery manufacturer in the world backing the largest lithium play on planet earth might be worth a mention?

 

[JNRB]

- Letting zijin TAKE the north for the sake of convenience and not wanting to hurt peoples feelings = caving.
- Zijin being forced to PAY for the north = vert different outcome.

"You make out like they will take the lot or nothing at all, that's absurd"

in what way did I imply that? My assertion is that CATH WANTS it all, as do we, and has the incentive to FIGHT for it, as we have.
Difference being we were fighting with a sharpened spoon against Zijins AK-47. CATH will drive in with a tank.

IF we decide to give up something in negotiations - in the interest of expediting production -, you can rest assured it will be a hell of a lot less now than it would have been a week ago.

The point being our incentive and ability to fight for the North has INCREASED. Not decreased as everyone seems to be implying.
So has our position in any negotiation. But it will still be a FIGHT. Just now it's a very different match up.

And as for the paaaw widdle cowupt DRC officials that might get sued by Zijin....
Fuk em. Not our problem. And also not guaranteed to ever happen. If "legal" action is what concerns them, what do you think is a bigger problem? All of AVZ's current, advanced international arbitration disputes? Or *potential* action from their other corrupt partner for a minor share in a part of a tenement that they priced at an absurdly low value.
- Both zijin and MoM etc are corrupt, and will likely be happy if they can slink away unscathed to try their shenanigans somewhere else.



I'm ok with everyone getting a piece of the pie.
My origional solution was to let Zijin have 'the North'
but just redefine 'the north' to be the size of a postage stamp.
That's their piece.

 

[Mute22]

I know we are in a legal battle and not a war for public opinion, but fuck me it would be nice to get some fair media coverage within Australia.

Does anybody know if AVZ is providing a direct media release or doing outreach to amenable journalists for good news? Clearly all the AFR employees have it out for us and are all in on IGO/LTR.

You would think the largest battery manufacturer in the world backing the largest lithium play on planet earth might be worth a mention?

I mean seriously, look at the latest headlines? If we are serious about ever relisting, we need an actual PR strategy - starting TODAY.

The average punter out of the loop, just reading the headlines would think Zijin is about to start mining and AVZ has been caught bribing officials, whereas the opposite is much closer to reality.

I don't work directly in PR, but adjacent - it's very frustrating to watch the selective stories in the media will pickup in a nano-second while we don't seem to be on the front foot with positive news.

 

[Stockinvesting]

Anyone thinking Felix or his representatives weren't involved in these negotiations is kidding themselves.

I believe instructions have been given to Zijin by DRC, although what they could be is anyone's guess.

Further, the tone of the announcement leads me to believe we're closer to seeing an end to this saga, sooner than most people think.

A fantastic announcement and result.

 

[SilentOne]

If I'm understanding the situation correctly, it's not caving in, it's realising the complete mess this is and taking the best way out, with the primary intention of making money and not that of seeking justice.

It's believed that if Zijin are told to pack their bags, they sue DRC.
Added to that many DRC corrupt officials can be exposed by Zijin if they so choose to.
Zijin have deliberately put themselves into this position for this exact reason, leverage.

So a negociated outcome where everyone gets a piece of the pie is the only sane path forward.
There is an undercurrent amongst the murmers I hear that Zijin will be made ot pay for the north, and wont just get it all for their Bribes they've payed. However this is just murmers.

CATH may yet manouver against Zijin, I hear they don't like them very much, and as wealthy as Zijin are, CATH are wealthier still by a fair bit.
I'm sure they want the lot, but they also don't want to be left out of this massive deposit.
You make out like they will take the lot or nothing at all, that's absurd. This is an important asset to battery manufacturers to secure a supply from.

Azzler,

In my opinion I believe you are completely wrong - Zijin have no case to bring in my opinion against the DRC unless you are saying that bribing government officials is legal. The money that was paid as I understand it never found its way into DRC Treasury and it was in breach of the Joint Venture Agreement. In my opinion Zijin have not followed the mining code so I dont see the legal argument that they can bring - the ICC and ICSID I would suggest would throw out any case and simply laugh - thinking that one of their own are simply trying to prank them.

I cant see any claim that Zijin would have and no doubt they would just embarrass themselves - they would simply be better off to fade into the sunset and try and take advantage of another 3rd world country.

The DRC would not have a problem in strengthening their own position by calling out fraud and prosecuting any government officials that had compromised themselves and received benefits.

Nope, Dathcom is entitled to the full tenement and its not a difficult argument to prosecute.

But after 3 red wines what would I know.

But hey just my thoughts.

SilentOne

 

[tonster66]

Nigel was asked directly the question at the 22 agm, “have we given up the north” his reply was that we have not. When I invested it was for 13359 , all of it. Nothing has changed is my understanding

 

[cruiser51]

Azzler,

In my opinion I believe you are completely wrong - Zijin have no case to bring in my opinion against the DRC unless you are saying that bribing government officials is legal. The money that was paid as I understand it never found its way into DRC Treasury and it was in breach of the Joint Venture Agreement. In my opinion Zijin have not followed the mining code so I dont see the legal argument that they can bring - the ICC and ICSID I would suggest would throw out any case and simply laugh - thinking that one of their own are simply trying to prank them.

I cant see any claim that Zijin would have and no doubt they would just embarrass themselves - they would simply be better off to fade into the sunset and try and take advantage of another 3rd world country.

The DRC would not have a problem in strengthening their own position by calling out fraud and prosecuting any government officials that had compromised themselves and received benefits.

Nope, Dathcom is entitled to the full tenement and its not a difficult argument to prosecute.

But after 3 red wines what would I know.

But hey just my thoughts.

SilentOne

Is that 3 bottles?

 

[cruiser51]

Anyone thinking Felix or his representatives weren't involved in these negotiations is kidding themselves.

I believe instructions have been given to Zijin by DRC, although what they could be is anyone's guess.

Further, the tone of the announcement leads me to believe we're closer to seeing an end to this saga, sooner than most people think.

A fantastic announcement and result.

Is that why Zijin told Bloomberg that they were going to start mining in 12 months time?

It is not the language of a mob which is about to fuck off, is it?

I would say Zijin hasn't started fighting yet, just having a bit of fun and is rolling it sleeves up for a full assault.
They are thinking in their fucked up mind 'enough of being Mr. Nice guy'.

I'm waiting for Tommy the twat to rock up with his banana boatman mate and his lacky shano, the clown, with the 10,000 personalities who talks to himself on the toilet, while having a crap.

 

[JasonM]

Nigel was asked directly the question at the 22 agm, “have we given up the north” his reply was that we have not. When I invested it was for 13359 , all of it. Nothing has changed is my understanding

yep true but being pragmatic, they'll do a deal. zijin will pay some penalties but they'll get the north in the end imo. I'd love for them to get fucked over so hopefully I'm wrong.

 

[Flekman11]

The 30.5% to me is the interesting part. It’s a very exact figure. The old 24% made a lot of sense. This doesn’t.

Based on the Aus dollar in 21 vs it now, CATH are paying the EXACT same price per 1% in AUD for a slice. But why 30.5%?

 

[RHyNO]

I mean seriously, look at the latest headlines? If we are serious about ever relisting, we need an actual PR strategy - starting TODAY.

View attachment 75692

The average punter out of the loop, just reading the headlines would think Zijin is about to start mining and AVZ has been caught bribing officials, whereas the opposite is much closer to reality.

I don't work directly in PR, but adjacent - it's very frustrating to watch the selective stories in the media will pickup in a nano-second while we don't seem to be on the front foot with positive news.

Don’t sweat it they will get to it. Strong moves at the appropriate moment. Truth always wins out.

 

[SilentOne]

yep true but being pragmatic, they'll do a deal. zijin will pay some penalties but they'll get the north in the end imo. I'd love for them to get fucked over so hopefully I'm wrong.

Jason,

Thats not being pragmatic its being defeatist - never give into a bully.

Nigel has managed to pull a rabbit out of his hat, he now has the money to go the long haul - lets see what Nigel has planned next. Its not a difficult case to argue though it has been long and drawn out (and painfully for me personally).

Also if you give into a bully you weaken your hand and they will want more and more concessions - you dont want Sin Bin anywhere near the full tenement of Dathcom or any power generation.

Regards,

SilentOne

 

[Flekman11]

Jason,

Thats not being pragmatic its being defeatist - never give into a bully.

Nigel has managed to pull a rabbit out of his hat, he now has the money to go the long haul - lets see what Nigel has planned next. Its not a difficult case to argue though it has been long and drawn out (and painfully for me personally).

Also if you give into a bully you weaken your hand and they will want more and more concessions - you dont want Sin Bin anywhere near the full tenement of Dathcom or any power generation.

Regards,

SilentOne

Right you are.

Positive leverage is achieved by having something that someone else needs more than you. At that point you hold the cards. I feel Nigel has done exactly that beautifully.

 

[Hodlandwin69]

The 30.5% to me is the interesting part. It’s a very exact figure. The old 24% made a lot of sense. This doesn’t.

Based on the Aus dollar in 21 vs it now, CATH are paying the EXACT same price per 1% in AUD for a slice. But why 30.5%?

It was probably a bartering process. Cath probably wanted 40% and AVZ said 25% and back and forth and eventually agreed to 30.5%

 

[cruiser51]

The 30.5% to me is the interesting part. It’s a very exact figure. The old 24% made a lot of sense. This doesn’t.

Based on the Aus dollar in 21 vs it now, CATH are paying the EXACT same price per 1% in AUD for a slice. But why 30.5%?

24% of 75% = 18%

30.5% of 60% = 18.3%

Just a thought

 

[Largus Averta]

I don't think we should be giving up anything within a km or 3 of our last drill bit to the north. We did the work. If they want to argue we haven't "explored" an area, then they got no grounds.

 

[Largus Averta]

I don't think we should be giving up anything within a km or 3 of our last drill bit to the north. We did the work. If they want to argue we haven't "explored" an area, then they got no grounds.

Actually, fuck that. I forgot for a second. Fuck Zigin.