Before the agm I’m sureArbitration proceedings have been suspended since the 7th. Maybe time for some sort of update on our hard earned - good or bad!
AVZ Discussion 2022
- Thread starter GazDix
- Start date
easy to say, harder to do when under financial stress which many are.
Thanks to 8horse who posted this on GLN in the black hole.
Always thought that his opinions were worth listening to.
Bit of a ramble, and his English isn't fantastic, but I think you'll get the drift
Enjoy:
I don't expect lithium price to skyrocket like last time, but should return to a more reasonable price level. I have to admit Goldman Sachs forecast on lithium price is by and large accurate, although their numbers on demand and supply are not accurate. Goldman Sachs forecast lithium price to bottom out next year.
Last cycle, high cost miners were forced to shut down due to financial difficulties (bankruptcy); this time, high cost mines started to shut down, started with Finniss, CATL's Jianxiawo lepidolite mine, Mt Cattlin, and Bikita was partially halted petalite mining...
Most of the cut production lines are small, but supply will reduce, most importantly, these are sending a signal to the market, lithium price would stay low, and discourage lithium investment thus reduce future lithium supply to rebalance the lithium market.
Also, global lithium demand was around 400kt LCE in 2020, but now is growing to around 1.2 million tons LCE in 2024. China lepidolite production in 2024, would be around 150kt LCE which would be significantly less than Goldman Sachs' forecast of 252kt LCE. For African lithium production, all up (Zimbabwe, Mali, Ethiopia), are maximum up to 144kt LCE in 2024 (this includes 20kt LCE for Goulamina: Gangfeng said Goulamina will be in production by end of 2024, so 20kt LCE for 2024 is very optimistic, imo).
Global demand for lithium is growing faster, it would be surprising if the global lithium demand doubles over next 3 years. Then current this big mines (say 500kt spodumene pa), would be a medium size mine.
Another factor, low lithium price will increase demand from energy storage sector, as well as help electric car sales as lower car price. Every bull last around 2 years, similar to downturn, also last around 2 to 3 years. Iron ore price cycles are a very good example as many similarities between iron ore and lithium, both mainly driven by China and China is highly depending on import. China annual car sales are 30m units, largest car market in the planet,
NEV penetration rate just passes 50%, likely to achieve over 90% by 2030.
Also, global lithium demand for 2025, increment demand is much higher than 2023, 2024, is likely to jump to 1.5 - 1.6 million tons LCE. That's about 4 times of the 2020's market size.
Always thought that his opinions were worth listening to.
Bit of a ramble, and his English isn't fantastic, but I think you'll get the drift
Enjoy:
I don't expect lithium price to skyrocket like last time, but should return to a more reasonable price level. I have to admit Goldman Sachs forecast on lithium price is by and large accurate, although their numbers on demand and supply are not accurate. Goldman Sachs forecast lithium price to bottom out next year.
Last cycle, high cost miners were forced to shut down due to financial difficulties (bankruptcy); this time, high cost mines started to shut down, started with Finniss, CATL's Jianxiawo lepidolite mine, Mt Cattlin, and Bikita was partially halted petalite mining...
Most of the cut production lines are small, but supply will reduce, most importantly, these are sending a signal to the market, lithium price would stay low, and discourage lithium investment thus reduce future lithium supply to rebalance the lithium market.
Also, global lithium demand was around 400kt LCE in 2020, but now is growing to around 1.2 million tons LCE in 2024. China lepidolite production in 2024, would be around 150kt LCE which would be significantly less than Goldman Sachs' forecast of 252kt LCE. For African lithium production, all up (Zimbabwe, Mali, Ethiopia), are maximum up to 144kt LCE in 2024 (this includes 20kt LCE for Goulamina: Gangfeng said Goulamina will be in production by end of 2024, so 20kt LCE for 2024 is very optimistic, imo).
Global demand for lithium is growing faster, it would be surprising if the global lithium demand doubles over next 3 years. Then current this big mines (say 500kt spodumene pa), would be a medium size mine.
Another factor, low lithium price will increase demand from energy storage sector, as well as help electric car sales as lower car price. Every bull last around 2 years, similar to downturn, also last around 2 to 3 years. Iron ore price cycles are a very good example as many similarities between iron ore and lithium, both mainly driven by China and China is highly depending on import. China annual car sales are 30m units, largest car market in the planet,
NEV penetration rate just passes 50%, likely to achieve over 90% by 2030.
Also, global lithium demand for 2025, increment demand is much higher than 2023, 2024, is likely to jump to 1.5 - 1.6 million tons LCE. That's about 4 times of the 2020's market size.
RHyNO
Regular
8 horse is the horse I rode in on. Smart dude. Sold out at 50c I believe
BRICK
Where’s Zeebot 😶🌫️
Looking forward to my payout after legal fees and costs totaling 48c
cruiser51
Top 20
So what is Zijin going to do with all that stolen lithium??
Are they going to continue to invest in Manono plus its infrastructure?
It looks like Xi and cohorts are not exactly happy chappies.
Fuck the cunts.
The west has woken up to what we already knew, one can't do business with crooks.
Keep up the good work on HC mate
What does that even mean ?? I monitor both forums and mainly keep Hooter at bay. WTF ???
cruiser51
Top 20
Is it OK if I take a rain check on that one?
I find eating with chopsticks a rather odd way of eating.
Oh fuck I've been misunderstood!
Showtime!!.....between Golden Boy and Cruiser
It was just a bit of a blow off and a laff on the commentary nothing more
I think I've been drama affected by the absolute shit on the crapper
Need to stop visiting there...... the dogshit contributors and paid up members of the CCP bring out the worst in you
Showtime!!.....between Golden Boy and Cruiser
It was just a bit of a blow off and a laff on the commentary nothing more
I think I've been drama affected by the absolute shit on the crapper
Need to stop visiting there...... the dogshit contributors and paid up members of the CCP bring out the worst in you
Mate time to lay off the booze ….. spat by Pokok who is constantly whining ( as opposed to you wineing) not CruiserOh fuck I've been misunderstood!
Showtime!!.....between Golden Boy and Cruiser
It was just a bit of a blow off and a laff on the commentary nothing more
I think I've been drama affected by the absolute shit on the crapper
Need to stop visiting there...... the dogshit contributors and paid up members of the CCP bring out the worst in you
Mate time to lay off the booze ….. spat by Pokok who is constantly whining ( as opposed to you wineing) not Cruiser
Apologies!
Between you, Cruiser and Pokok I got confused!
Fair call
But it's ......."wining" for the punchline
Just sayin'
cruiser51
Top 20
Wtf did i upset this time?Apologies!
Between you, Cruiser and Pokok I got confused!
Fair call
But it's ......."wining" for the punchline
Just sayin'
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