AVZ Discussion 2022

[ptlas]

Or maybe FT is playing US and China off against each other.
Maybe the winner is already decided.

Or maybe there are different winners depending upon which issue FT thinks he's deciding.

Maybe the rest is window dressing so that the loser does not also lose face.

Or maybe it depends on the weight of his cargo on the return trip.

Ifs, buts and maybes.

T'was ever thus.

 

[John Reed]

not exactly a good sign for Tshisekedi to make a visit to Beijing just four months out from when official electioneering usually kicks off.

But who knows what the strategy is since DRC is at the centre of a power struggle between Washington and Beijing.

my impression is, that inside the contradictions between the IGF hard line (basic governance) and the mysterious resistance to true political fall out that should be a consequence of outing corruption, is that Tshisekedi needs above all loyalty more than anything to keep his political Union intact as the country moves to election mode.

I may miss some of the intricacies to how Tshisekedi is encumbered or compromised but I think considering that IGF did what it did it did so knowing it’s throat would be protected, is clear as daylight.

Further, to weaken Chinese hegemony (by revisiting previous regime contracts) means to weaken the old brigade, which by the way, are still there, Mupande, one of the most obvious ‘barnacles’ yet to be ‘scraped.’ So, Tshisekedi is likely heading to Beijing on invitation. Beijing seems to have influence and something has to be brokered I suspect. The biggest piece would be the US proposal for EVs. And what Beijing can do for Tshisekedi.

Other than that I don’t know, as the Secretary of State Pompeo (once CIA elite always CIA elite) ordained Tshisekedi
4 years ago. How does the power politics work has me mystified. There appears no return to heavy hand days of Mobutu.

But US is funding projects in DRC. Even the Japanese are turning up.

Diversity is key for Congolese people.

Perhaps the Congolese don’t yet get how strategic Manono is. What if the Chinese get it.
What does that do for Australian lithium?

 

[Dazmac66]

not exactly a good sign for Tshisekedi to make a visit to Beijing just four months out from when official electioneering usually kicks off.

But who knows what the strategy is since DRC is at the centre of a power struggle between Washington and Beijing.

my impression is, that inside the contradictions between the IGF hard line (basic governance) and the mysterious resistance to true political fall out that should be a consequence of outing corruption, is that Tshisekedi needs above all loyalty more than anything to keep his political Union intact as the country moves to election mode.

I may miss some of the intricacies to how Tshisekedi is encumbered or compromised but I think considering that IGF did what it did it did so knowing it’s throat would be protected, is clear as daylight.

Further, to weaken Chinese hegemony (by revisiting previous regime contracts) means to weaken the old brigade, which by the way, are still there, Mupande, one of the most obvious ‘barnacles’ yet to be ‘scraped.’ So, Tshisekedi is likely heading to Beijing on invitation. Beijing seems to have influence and something has to be brokered I suspect. The biggest piece would be the US proposal for EVs. And what Beijing can do for Tshisekedi.

Other than that I don’t know, as the Secretary of State Pompeo (once CIA elite always CIA elite) ordained Tshisekedi
4 years ago. How does the power politics work has me mystified. There appears no return to heavy hand days of Mobutu.

But US is funding projects in DRC. Even the Japanese are turning up.

Diversity is key for Congolese people.

Perhaps the Congolese don’t yet get how strategic Manono is. What if the Chinese get it.
What does that do for Australian lithium?

"Perhaps the Congolese don’t yet get how strategic Manono is." That would be the understatement of this whole shitshow John!

 

[Winenut]

Fucking great

The Nige is in the DRC and FT fucks off to China to visit the grand masters of the brown paper bag

How much worse does this shit get?

 

[wombat74]

not exactly a good sign for Tshisekedi to make a visit to Beijing just four months out from when official electioneering usually kicks off.

But who knows what the strategy is since DRC is at the centre of a power struggle between Washington and Beijing.

my impression is, that inside the contradictions between the IGF hard line (basic governance) and the mysterious resistance to true political fall out that should be a consequence of outing corruption, is that Tshisekedi needs above all loyalty more than anything to keep his political Union intact as the country moves to election mode.

I may miss some of the intricacies to how Tshisekedi is encumbered or compromised but I think considering that IGF did what it did it did so knowing it’s throat would be protected, is clear as daylight.

Further, to weaken Chinese hegemony (by revisiting previous regime contracts) means to weaken the old brigade, which by the way, are still there, Mupande, one of the most obvious ‘barnacles’ yet to be ‘scraped.’ So, Tshisekedi is likely heading to Beijing on invitation. Beijing seems to have influence and something has to be brokered I suspect. The biggest piece would be the US proposal for EVs. And what Beijing can do for Tshisekedi.

Other than that I don’t know, as the Secretary of State Pompeo (once CIA elite always CIA elite) ordained Tshisekedi
4 years ago. How does the power politics work has me mystified. There appears no return to heavy hand days of Mobutu.

But US is funding projects in DRC. Even the Japanese are turning up.

Diversity is key for Congolese people.

Perhaps the Congolese don’t yet get how strategic Manono is. What if the Chinese get it.
What does that do for Australian lithium?

It might be safer and easier for FT to make his call on Manono after the election ? Is he caught between a rock and hard place ? Obviously AVZ does not have the luxury of waiting until the election to find out . Nigel will need to make a call well before then . IMO

 

[Dazmac66]

Fucking great

The Nige is in the DRC and FT fucks off to China to visit the grand masters of the brown paper bag

How much worse does this shit get?

Nailed it Nut - I just didn't want to say it! You've got absolutely no filter bro!

 

[Flight996]

Or maybe FT is playing US and China off against each other.
Maybe the winner is already decided.

Or maybe there are different winners depending upon which issue FT thinks he's deciding.

Maybe the rest is window dressing so that the loser does not also lose face.

Or maybe it depends on the weight of his cargo on the return trip.

Ifs, buts and maybes.

T'was ever thus.

Mate, it's pretty much all window dressing in the lead-up to the election. If he was going to do something worthwhile about corruption and Chinese looting, he would have done it already. He's in China seeking financial aid, and maybe arms to manage the deteriorating security issue in the north east.

The other thing is that it's now been almost three months since the decree awarding Dathcom the ML was repealed. If Felix's govt was going to take it further, it would have been done so already. Me thinks that the govt is unable to repeal Dathcom's exploration licence because of the multi-billion dollar damages claim that would surely follow.

Given the undeniable evidence of widespread govt and Chinese corruption, and that AVZ followed the mining code, the DRC would have a hard time convincing any ICC court that its decisions were anything but corrupt and illegal. I think the DRC govt is prepared to wait for the conga line of ICC cases to run their course, regardless of opportunity cost and lost revenue.

Just thinking out aloud.

Cheers
F

 

[John Reed]

It might be safer and easier for FT to make his call on Manono after the election ? Is he caught between a rock and hard place ? Obviously AVZ does not have the luxury of waiting until the election to find out . Nigel will need to make a call well before then . IMO

Bearing in mind there’s likely another level chess game at work with the US surely backing AVZ indirectly for its own interests, Nigel I think just needs to keep marshalling on the rights front possibly with some compromise but how to compromise with thieves? Kinshasa allies what’s left are distancing themselves for political not legal reasons.
ICC Paris hygienizes decision making / hopefully its decisive for Kinshasa.
I can’t see a deal before that eventuating — there’s no compromise with crookery.
DRC elements have well and truly exposed themselves beyond what they can imagine….I would run for the airport

 

[Samus]

Cobalt, Copper and #lithium The #USA and Australia against the Chinese monopoly . China controls 60% of the minerals of #RDC , often accused of corruption to obtain contracts, of non-respect of workers' rights , how will it defend itself?


And knowing that the Manono mine has 500,000,000 lithium reserves at $80,000 per ton! A mine for which "The Australians and the Chinese are fighting over control...to the misfortune of the Congolese.
@KiengeKki

No, let's be clear, it's the Chinese who want to bribe it after the Australians have certified at their expense.

 

[wombat74]

Mate, it's pretty much all window dressing in the lead-up to the election. If he was going to do something worthwhile about corruption and Chinese looting, it would have been done already. He's in China seeking financial aid, and maybe arms to manage the deteriorating security issue in the north east.

The other thing is that it's now been almost three months since the decree awarding Dathcom the ML was repealed. If Felix's govt was going to take it further, it would have been done so already. Me thinks that the govt is unable to pull the pin on Dathcom's exploration licence because of the multi-billion dollar damages claim that would surely follow.

Given the undeniable evidence of widespread govt and Chinese corruption, and that AVZ followed the mining code, the DRC would have a hard time convincing any ICC court that its decisions were anything but corrupt and illegal. I think the DRC govt is prepared to wait for the conga line of ICC cases to run their course, regardless of opportunity cost and lost revenue.

Just thinking out aloud.

Cheers
F

If the ICC cases are needed for FT to make a decision then forget about it . Nigel will need to call Bull Sh1t well before then . Before the election . FT can make a captains call . He has all the evidence he needs to hand the ML to AVZ/DATH right now . Stalling on account of ICC verdicts which are based on BS anyway is not acceptable . Nigel will need to make his own Captain's Call . That is , well this is obviously going round in circles with no end in sight . Time to put the Big Guns in front of the ICC and do it before the election . This sh1t show has to end and it has to end soon . On AVZ terms . (hopefully wont be needed and all ends well) .

 

[Thaz]

Cobalt, Copper and #lithium The #USA and Australia against the Chinese monopoly . China controls 60% of the minerals of #RDC , often accused of corruption to obtain contracts, of non-respect of workers' rights , how will it defend itself?


And knowing that the Manono mine has 500,000,000 lithium reserves at $80,000 per ton! A mine for which "The Australians and the Chinese are fighting over control...to the misfortune of the Congolese.
@KiengeKki

No, let's be clear, it's the Chinese who want to bribe it after the Australians have certified at their expense.

Fighting for control is the incorrect word to use.

That implies that we may not actually have control.

Rather. It should be avz. Defending their rights. And zijin trying to illegitimately and fraudulently gaining control

I'm ot the opinion that zijin should not be offered a part of company.

 

[DoubleA]

"Perhaps the Congolese don’t yet get how strategic Manono is." That would be the understatement of this whole shitshow John!

This was a great post by John but as for the Congolese not realising how strategic Manono is, I would say the exact opposite is true.

If this deposit was borderline uneconomic to mine with a below average resource we would have nowhere near the amount of roadblocks.

The DRC are trying to leverage this deposit to get people to set up a whole battery manufacturing industry in the country. Many also keep talking about renegotiating contracts, they try to get around following their own mining code, the Chinese are paying tens of millions in bribes, people in this thread are also speculating that China's provision of tanks to DRC could also be linked etc. Certainly some of the people involved in DRC know the importance.

Several years ago when people kept saying how many billion this deposit was worth and AVZ kept drilling and drilling, I did wonder whether this was wise when the final arrangements had not been made with Dathomir/Cominiere etc. I wondered if it would have been possible to just drill a limited amount and basically say "yes it is economical to mine" and then get a small operation started. Later further drilling could have been announced to show "ohh it was actually bigger than we thought" and operations could have been expanded.

I realise hindsight is 20:20, but it just seems to me that AVZ really showed their hand and got badly taken advantage of. Maybe Financing would never have been possible for a small operation and transport would not have been feasible. It just seemed back then and now that announcing in a place as corrupt as the DRC "Oh hey everyone look over here there's billions of dollars worth of lithium at Manono" was an absolute recipe for disaster.

 

[Flight996]

If the ICC cases are needed for FT to make a decision then forget about it . Nigel will need to call Bull Sh1t well before then . Before the election . FT can make a captains call . He has all the evidence he needs to hand the ML to AVZ/DATH right now . Stalling on account of ICC verdicts which are based on BS anyway is not acceptable . Nigel will need to make his own Captain's Call . That is , well this is obviously going round in circles with no end in sight . Time to put the Big Guns in front of the ICC and do it before the election . This sh1t show has to end and it has to end soon . On AVZ terms . (hopefully wont be needed ) .

The Zijin-AVZ case is still in train; just delayed due to GOKW. Some here suggest September.

I honestly don't know the answer to this clusterfuck, but from a strategic point of view, the DRC government is much better off allowing the ICC to adjudicate and give its imprimatur to the outcome, than prematurely pulling the pin on Dathcom's lease and getting a multi-billion dollar invoice in the mail.

I think the DRC government is prepared to wait for the negotiated outcome.

Cheers
F

 

[DoubleA]

It might be safer and easier for FT to make his call on Manono after the election ? Is he caught between a rock and hard place ? Obviously AVZ does not have the luxury of waiting until the election to find out . Nigel will need to make a call well before then . IMO

The election is one of my main hopes for being the catalyst to unblock this project.

There is the possibility that Martin Fayulu could win. He got the most votes at the previous election but Kabila "adjusted" the numbers. Maybe it is wishful thinking but USA did express doubt about the previous election. Given the USA's interest in the DRC resources, may they be able to assist in the upcoming election to make it more transparent? I do remember reading about these suggestions after last election. More likely it is wishful thinking from me, but I see Martin Fayulu as an outside chance.

The other possibility I hope for is that Fatshi gets back in but then no longer requires the support of Minister of Portfolio and others. Similar to how he allied himself with Kabila to get elected last time and then betrayed that alliance. My hope would be that once he gets elected he then gets rid of Minister of Portfolio and other corrupt individuals opposing AVZ once his use for them has served its purpose.

 

[Carlos Danger]

I think the DRC government is prepared to wait for the negotiated outcome.

With a view to save the Manono project. Nature to paralyse the exploitation of lithium and to prevent the state from channeling the products resulting from the mining licence. Given the need and urgency.

It's been 3 months since the MoM used this reasoning to cancel the mining licence for the south of PE13359. The ICC cases could take years. Nigel has called their bluff and so far there doesn't seem to be any need and urgency in moving the project forward. Let's see who blinks first.

 

[wombat74]

The election is one of my main hopes for being the catalyst to unblock this project.

There is the possibility that Martin Fayulu could win. He got the most votes at the previous election but Kabila "adjusted" the numbers. Maybe it is wishful thinking but USA did express doubt about the previous election. Given the USA's interest in the DRC resources, may they be able to assist in the upcoming election to make it more transparent? I do remember reading about these suggestions after last election. More likely it is wishful thinking from me, but I see Martin Fayulu as an outside chance.

The other possibility I hope for is that Fatshi gets back in but then no longer requires the support of Minister of Portfolio and others. Similar to how he allied himself with Kabila to get elected last time and then betrayed that alliance. My hope would be that once he gets elected he then gets rid of Minister of Portfolio and other corrupt individuals opposing AVZ once his use for them has served its purpose.

Forget it mate . If we are still sitting here at election time is all over red rover . Nigel needs to call time on this sh1t show before then . I'd rather spend our last $10 million suing them on the world stage than let them lead us down the garden path so they can f--k us over later. Gloves have to come off at some point . Nigel needs to ask the direct questions to FT &MoM . Are you giving us the ML or not ? Yes or No . Any other answer is unacceptable .All answers other than yes lead straight to the ICC . It's been 12 months . They have had enough time . They have enough evidence .

 

[Samus]

#RDC Sweden interested in the Congolese mining sector

 

[wombat74]

#RDC Sweden interested in the Congolese mining sector

Notice she only smiles when it's a photo with Chinese .

 

[John Reed]

This was a great post by John but as for the Congolese not realising how strategic Manono is, I would say the exact opposite is true.

If this deposit was borderline uneconomic to mine with a below average resource we would have nowhere near the amount of roadblocks.

The DRC are trying to leverage this deposit to get people to set up a whole battery manufacturing industry in the country. Many also keep talking about renegotiating contracts, they try to get around following their own mining code, the Chinese are paying tens of millions in bribes, people in this thread are also speculating that China's provision of tanks to DRC could also be linked etc. Certainly some of the people involved in DRC know the importance.

Several years ago when people kept saying how many billion this deposit was worth and AVZ kept drilling and drilling, I did wonder whether this was wise when the final arrangements had not been made with Dathomir/Cominiere etc. I wondered if it would have been possible to just drill a limited amount and basically say "yes it is economical to mine" and then get a small operation started. Later further drilling could have been announced to show "ohh it was actually bigger than we thought" and operations could have been expanded.

I realise hindsight is 20:20, but it just seems to me that AVZ really showed their hand and got badly taken advantage of. Maybe Financing would never have been possible for a small operation and transport would not have been feasible. It just seemed back then and now that announcing in a place as corrupt as the DRC "Oh hey everyone look over here there's billions of dollars worth of lithium at Manono" was an absolute recipe for disaster.

I believe Serge Ngandu has equity in the drilling company active in Manono. Just a fact I picked up on the way over the years holding AVZ.

As you know, Drilling keeps the “lights on” while waiting for the market to come good, plus all the mucking around on the starting point for ore feed (and the lake as an impediment). I’ve never seen so much adjustment compared to Australian plays, I suppose it’s worth getting just right and testing degree of ‘homogeneity’.

 

[DoubleA]

Forget it mate . If we are still sitting here at election time is all over red rover . Nigel needs to call time on this sh1t show before then . I'd rather spend our last $10 million suing them on the world stage than let them lead us down the garden path so they can f--k us over later. Gloves have to come off at some point . Nigel needs to ask the direct questions to FT &MoM . Are you giving us the ML or not ? Yes or No . Any other answer is unacceptable .All answers other than yes lead straight to the ICC . It's been 12 months . They have had enough time . They have enough evidence .

I don't think it is all over red rover. If AVZ stop constantly spending money on drilling and reduce staff expenses then it should not cost much at all to keep AVZ ticking over. Obviously the historical cash burn cannot continue.

I hope it does resolve in our favour before then, but it just does not seem to be happening.