Sammy_da_Smile
Regular
Did anyone tune in this morning? It's all in French and I did see our friend Joe talk a bit. There is a recording saved aswell.
AVZ Discussion 2022
- Thread starter GazDix
- Start date
Frank
Top 20
Lithium from the DRC: a strategic mineral against a backdrop of geopolitical conflict
Obviously, the Congo really matters to the United States because of international geopolitics and it's not for nothing.
The country is the largest cobalt producer in the world and the largest copper producer in Africa.
That's not all: important deposits of strategic minerals are also listed in its basement.
Manono's lithium is not just of interest to China.
Canadians, Americans and Europeans are also on the go.
US INTEREST in Africa has greatly diminished in recent years.
With Joe Biden, the President of the United States, Washington wants to catch up with China and Russia, which are spectacularly extending their tentacles on the African continent.
In this American quest to regain control in Africa, the Congo, where there are large deposits of lithium and other strategic minerals, is of great importance for the Americans who seek to keep their traditional geopolitical influence there.
"Lithium is really the summary of the challenges of the world to come", resume almost in chorus of analysts.
That's for sure, and in all likelihood, investors looking to own one of the keys to the near future should flock to the metal dubbed 'white gold' or 'white oil', which is increasingly sought after and essential to successfully carry out the energy transition.
From batteries to medicines and batteries, the use of lithium has become essential in the manufacture of smartphones, computers, and especially batteries for electric cars/EVs.
As a result, the price of lithium continues to rise.
Analysts even predict that it should be multiplied by 40 by 2035, precisely because of the exploding demand.
For example, the European Commission estimates that there will not be enough lithium mined to meet needs by 2030.
And so the specter of shortages is already looming on the horizon.
Question: How much will the world need then?
For the moment, it is difficult to give a precise answer as long as we are still in the midst of speculation, conjecture... And therefore, no one really knows what the future will hold.
Curious all the same to note that the world summit on lithium which was organized on November 28 and 29, 2022 in Buenos Aires, the Argentine capital, went largely unnoticed.
However, without lithium, no energy transition (?)
The issue of lithium mining is today in a way a concentrate of the greatest geopolitical issues of the moment.
Almost everything is there.
White gold has become a crucial economic issue especially for car manufacturers and their customers who are considering owning an EV.
Ambitions of the DRC
With regard precisely to the exploitation of lithium, the Democratic Republic of Congo/DRC has wild ambitions.
The government wants to make the country a real world center for the manufacture of electric batteries.
A project that is still littered with obstacles: poor road conditions, electricity deficit, lack of transparency, corruption...
Will the DRC really be, tomorrow, at the heart of the global energy transition?
In any case, this is the ambition of the country's authorities, who want to develop the country's lithium resources, by setting up an electric battery manufacturing industry there.
The country is believed to hold the largest hard rock lithium reserves ever mined in the world.
Only a reserve of 132 million tonnes has been proven and deemed probable, therefore immediately exploitable.
It is also said that the DRC has the most significant potential on the African continent, which could make it the first lithium producer in the world ahead of Australia.
AVZ Minerals, an Australian company, plans to launch in 2023 the exploitation of this deposit considered as the largest in the world, in the territory of Manono in the province of Tanganyika.
This company has been present on the site since 2016 to develop a mine.
Contemporary Amperex Technology Ltd/CATL, a Chinese group, world leader in battery manufacturing, wants to partner with AVZ Minerals through its subsidiary Suzhou Cath Energy Technologies.
CATL has put on the table $240 million for a 24% stake in the project and could spend up to $400 million in total.
The commissioning of the Manono mine is seen as a turning point by the Congolese government.
Félix Antoine Tshisekedi Tshilombo, the President of the Republic, declares loud and clear that his country is "the most competitive destination in the world" to set up battery manufacturing plants.
In figures, the DRC hopes to capture part of the 8,000 billion dollars in revenue from the sale of EVs by 2025, i.e. 46,000 billion by 2050.
Indeed, a factory located in the DRC would cost less than in the United States or China.
Governance
Manono's lithium is not only of interest to China, the world leader in battery production.
Other lithium battery factory construction projects are also supported by Canadians, Americans and Europeans.
Apparently, Westerners are beaten at the post by the Chinese.
Indeed, Joe Lowry, the founder of consulting firm Global Lithium, told the Voice of America/VOA recently that Western lithium producers have been taken aback by the growth of the EV industry, and therefore, by the lithium rush.
He pointed out that lithium has been a tiny niche market for 7 decades, and that the global market for lithium chemicals did not reach $1 billion until 2015. And for good reason, according to him, industry was unprepared for the electrification of transport.
“You can build a huge battery factory like Tesla does in a few years.
It takes up to ten years to bring a fully integrated lithium chemicals project online,” bets Joe Lowry.
After investing ahead of the resource curve outside of China, Chinese producers are turning their attention to India and Africa.
Lithium from Africa is increasingly coveted as more than half of the world's ore resources are found in South America and Australia.
Chinese conglomerate BYD, headquartered in Shenzhen, is negotiating the purchase of six new lithium mines in unspecified African countries, according to Reuters.
In Zimbabwe, which has large untapped deposits, China is buying up mines.
According to Reuters, the Zhejiang Huayou Cobalt company is investing $300 million in the Arcadia Lithium mine on the outskirts of Harare, the country's capital.
There is talk of building a processing plant for 400,000 metric tons of lithium concentrate per year.
Shenzhen Chengxin Lithium Group and Sinomine Resource Group are also investing in lithium in Zimbabwe.
This country, economically unstable and hit by Western sanctions, wants to become a major player in the flourishing lithium sector.
The Chinese company Ganfeng Lithium, which has the largest lithium production capacity in the world, will carry out in partnership with Leo Lithium Limited, an Australian firm, the first lithium mine in West Africa, in Mali. Estimated cost: more than 160 billion FCFA.
The Goulamina hard rock mine is considered one of the highest quality lithium assets in the world.
It is now that the United States also recognizes the importance of Africa.
Indeed, Africa has vast untapped energy deposits, essential for the transition to clean energy, in particular for mobile phones, aircraft engines, hybrid electric vehicles and missile guidance systems.
mediacongo
Obviously, the Congo really matters to the United States because of international geopolitics and it's not for nothing.
The country is the largest cobalt producer in the world and the largest copper producer in Africa.
That's not all: important deposits of strategic minerals are also listed in its basement.
Manono's lithium is not just of interest to China.
Canadians, Americans and Europeans are also on the go.
US INTEREST in Africa has greatly diminished in recent years.
With Joe Biden, the President of the United States, Washington wants to catch up with China and Russia, which are spectacularly extending their tentacles on the African continent.
In this American quest to regain control in Africa, the Congo, where there are large deposits of lithium and other strategic minerals, is of great importance for the Americans who seek to keep their traditional geopolitical influence there.
"Lithium is really the summary of the challenges of the world to come", resume almost in chorus of analysts.
That's for sure, and in all likelihood, investors looking to own one of the keys to the near future should flock to the metal dubbed 'white gold' or 'white oil', which is increasingly sought after and essential to successfully carry out the energy transition.
From batteries to medicines and batteries, the use of lithium has become essential in the manufacture of smartphones, computers, and especially batteries for electric cars/EVs.
As a result, the price of lithium continues to rise.
Analysts even predict that it should be multiplied by 40 by 2035, precisely because of the exploding demand.
For example, the European Commission estimates that there will not be enough lithium mined to meet needs by 2030.
And so the specter of shortages is already looming on the horizon.
Question: How much will the world need then?
For the moment, it is difficult to give a precise answer as long as we are still in the midst of speculation, conjecture... And therefore, no one really knows what the future will hold.
Curious all the same to note that the world summit on lithium which was organized on November 28 and 29, 2022 in Buenos Aires, the Argentine capital, went largely unnoticed.
However, without lithium, no energy transition (?)
The issue of lithium mining is today in a way a concentrate of the greatest geopolitical issues of the moment.
Almost everything is there.
White gold has become a crucial economic issue especially for car manufacturers and their customers who are considering owning an EV.
Ambitions of the DRC
With regard precisely to the exploitation of lithium, the Democratic Republic of Congo/DRC has wild ambitions.
The government wants to make the country a real world center for the manufacture of electric batteries.
A project that is still littered with obstacles: poor road conditions, electricity deficit, lack of transparency, corruption...
Will the DRC really be, tomorrow, at the heart of the global energy transition?
In any case, this is the ambition of the country's authorities, who want to develop the country's lithium resources, by setting up an electric battery manufacturing industry there.
The country is believed to hold the largest hard rock lithium reserves ever mined in the world.
Only a reserve of 132 million tonnes has been proven and deemed probable, therefore immediately exploitable.
It is also said that the DRC has the most significant potential on the African continent, which could make it the first lithium producer in the world ahead of Australia.
AVZ Minerals, an Australian company, plans to launch in 2023 the exploitation of this deposit considered as the largest in the world, in the territory of Manono in the province of Tanganyika.
This company has been present on the site since 2016 to develop a mine.
Contemporary Amperex Technology Ltd/CATL, a Chinese group, world leader in battery manufacturing, wants to partner with AVZ Minerals through its subsidiary Suzhou Cath Energy Technologies.
CATL has put on the table $240 million for a 24% stake in the project and could spend up to $400 million in total.
The commissioning of the Manono mine is seen as a turning point by the Congolese government.
Félix Antoine Tshisekedi Tshilombo, the President of the Republic, declares loud and clear that his country is "the most competitive destination in the world" to set up battery manufacturing plants.
In figures, the DRC hopes to capture part of the 8,000 billion dollars in revenue from the sale of EVs by 2025, i.e. 46,000 billion by 2050.
Indeed, a factory located in the DRC would cost less than in the United States or China.
Governance
Manono's lithium is not only of interest to China, the world leader in battery production.
Other lithium battery factory construction projects are also supported by Canadians, Americans and Europeans.
Apparently, Westerners are beaten at the post by the Chinese.
Indeed, Joe Lowry, the founder of consulting firm Global Lithium, told the Voice of America/VOA recently that Western lithium producers have been taken aback by the growth of the EV industry, and therefore, by the lithium rush.
He pointed out that lithium has been a tiny niche market for 7 decades, and that the global market for lithium chemicals did not reach $1 billion until 2015. And for good reason, according to him, industry was unprepared for the electrification of transport.
“You can build a huge battery factory like Tesla does in a few years.
It takes up to ten years to bring a fully integrated lithium chemicals project online,” bets Joe Lowry.
After investing ahead of the resource curve outside of China, Chinese producers are turning their attention to India and Africa.
Lithium from Africa is increasingly coveted as more than half of the world's ore resources are found in South America and Australia.
Chinese conglomerate BYD, headquartered in Shenzhen, is negotiating the purchase of six new lithium mines in unspecified African countries, according to Reuters.
In Zimbabwe, which has large untapped deposits, China is buying up mines.
According to Reuters, the Zhejiang Huayou Cobalt company is investing $300 million in the Arcadia Lithium mine on the outskirts of Harare, the country's capital.
There is talk of building a processing plant for 400,000 metric tons of lithium concentrate per year.
Shenzhen Chengxin Lithium Group and Sinomine Resource Group are also investing in lithium in Zimbabwe.
This country, economically unstable and hit by Western sanctions, wants to become a major player in the flourishing lithium sector.
The Chinese company Ganfeng Lithium, which has the largest lithium production capacity in the world, will carry out in partnership with Leo Lithium Limited, an Australian firm, the first lithium mine in West Africa, in Mali. Estimated cost: more than 160 billion FCFA.
The Goulamina hard rock mine is considered one of the highest quality lithium assets in the world.
It is now that the United States also recognizes the importance of Africa.
Indeed, Africa has vast untapped energy deposits, essential for the transition to clean energy, in particular for mobile phones, aircraft engines, hybrid electric vehicles and missile guidance systems.
mediacongo
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Nells you are absolutely correct - you never invite a thief into the house - giving them a seat at the table would be somewhat cancerous and we would be eaten from the inside out. I am personally looking forward to the ICC which will put nefarious actors in the international spotlight.
The DRC cant fly around the world and sell the opportunities of long term investments if they dont enforce the laws of the land. You will end up with rampant corruption that will keep the country poor, uneducated and reliant on others.
An uneducated population become the slaves of the elite - not a very nice position to be in.
It is very very sad.
Silent One
We are approaching 10 months suspended . This may seem like a stupid question , but is time a factor for AVZ ? Are we good for another 12 - 18 months of battle ?I have mentioned this before, but i would really like to call Zijin bluff and stay the course with the April 2023 ICC arbitration, maybe they will pull out if they realise the weight of evidence is against them ( IGF report, AVZ strong documentation ) one of Chinas fallibility is they dont like getting embarrassed on the world stage, its a open court proceeding, not their preferred option, MMCS got embarrassed even tho no ruling as yet......
Will China risk a second dose ?
ICC arbitration is only 41 days away as per Spikerama daily count...........not that far away.
There is still plenty of time to "compromise" after the initial hearing, should matters not be as clear cut ....
One way or another, you would want to see a path way to construction of RD no later than June.
imo
Bray
Regular
Hemicuda
Regular
What battle?
Battle may not be the right word , but someone wants what we have and we are trying to stop them from getting it .
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obe wan
Regular
I very much doubt AVZ are communicating in any way with zijin other than telling Cominiere that they need to sort their shit out with Zijin and get the project rolling…I mentioned this type of proposal a fair while ago now, before the bribery news broke ( Zijin & Cominiere )
But it also included Zijin compensating AVZ a percentage for capital works already under taken to get RD to the DFS stage, which ultimately got 3 favourable opinions to be awarded the original ML decree.
That proposal should also include Zijin paying full market value for the 15%, not the pissant $33m which they have only paid a deposit for snacks at this stage
Having Zijin in the equation makes my gut wrench, but it does provide a pathway regards to " harmonious relations " within Dathcom and get RD moving in the right direction towards construction / production if the agreements are iron clad and irrevocable.
But we also have the Dathomir drama with the other 15% dispute, which is slated to go thru ICC arbitration too...
How does AVZ navigate that horse shit ?
Do we have a outcome of the MMCS dispute yet ?
So many moving parts to this crappola situation it makes my head spin !!
9.3 months to go before DRC elections.........
2.2 months to go to " celebrate " 12 months of extended suspension.......
What a fucking glowing endorsement for other international coys to invest in DRC hey ?
NOT !!
imo
harmonious relations is only between shareholders of which Zijin legally are not … all that is in that pot, is Dathcom , AVZ , Cominiere and possibly Dathomir .
Zijin only conjured ICC up, in order to try and force a position for themselves at the negotiating table ; Zijins issue lies with Cominiere not AVZ ; AVZ have ROFR, it should be Cominiere that should be bringing AVZ to ICC if they have acted above board and are certain AVZ is blocking the sale; of which Zijin have only ever paid a ‘deposit’ …no sale has crossed the line.
At this stage in my view ; AVZ would be nuts to entertain anything from Zijin unless it had real financial benefit / clout to the project ; we’ve been suspended 10 months ; walk with then into ICC if they wish….
It will be interesting to see what Zijins considers their case is and what the mechanics they are running on ; I reckon it will be a wet bag of shit that Zijin , Cominiere , MoP etc would prefer never to be opened as the only thing it’s going to burn up, is a lot of reputations excluding that of AVZ; it also potentially widens the avenues up even more so , for AVZ to seek significant damages from Cominiere /Zijin ; let the lawyers become another source of revenue to the Dathcom project imo.
A couple of months I’d have been on the side of ‘let’s negotiate with Zijin’ ; it’s now March 23… ICC April 23 .. unless the board have been advised by their legal eagles to possibly consider negotiating the 15% I say fuck them and march straight to ICC.
I think the harmonious discussions need to be happening between Zijin / Cominiere and certain ministers and the best thing they can do is say amongst themselves is that ye we had a good shot at trying to steal the Manono project , but it hasn’t gone to plan and attempts to lure AVZ to the table with legal threats hasn’t worked ; but we really need to cut our loses here and pull the hand break on this ICC event which will highly likely expose how corrupt all these parties involved against AVZ have been and legal cases are likely to roll out of the AVZ legal team in gathering damages and winks
So if it goes to the ICC it means Zijin and the other Corrupt players don't give a f--k about the verdict . This is why I think it is a bad sign if this ICC case goes ahead . The next 40 days are key . IMO
I am with you Wombat, we need to have this sorted out before ICC. On the news front, it's extremely quiet both good/bad. We can safely assume some serious discussions are taking place behind doors.
Xerof
Biding my Time 1971
Well said @obe wan couldn't agree more. I first rang warning bells about Z early last year, and still have the mantra Z in, X out
I'm back home, on the surface nothing has progressed during my month away. Kunts. I suspect lots of paddling under the surface though.
You guys have done a terrific job pushing our barrow and exposing the criminals - strong applause from me
Now I just need to pay for my trip
Arsehole
obe wan
Regular
My point is not that I want Zijin in ICC above anything else .. I just don’t want AVZ to give them anything unless we don’t have any choice.
It’s up to Zijin to decide how much of a hole in the head they want to be to all the parties which are likely to get exposed including themselves ; ideally they’d just pull the pin on the ICC case and decide that their pressure cookers didn’t have the desired effect ….
Today I had a look at the role of the International Court of Arbitration (ICC) in order to see specifically its role and the type/s of orders it can make.
Although called a court in name, the ICC does not make formal judgments on disputed matters. Instead, it exercises judicial supervision of arbitration proceedings, including ensuring procedural fairness of the negotiations, proper application of ICC rules, approving final awards and ensuring that they are robust and enforceable (My paraphrasing and emphases).
iccwbo.org
What this means is that the ICC's roles and responsibilities are different from the its sister organisation, the International Court of Cassation (France) that is the ultimate arbiter on whether the law was followed in commercial disputes. This court's decision is final.
What does this mean for AVZ and other vested parties?
Noting that negotiations are hopefully already well advanced or at least underway; it means that the ICC is the forum for AVZ to formalise any final negotiated position. In the usual manner, negotiations will be conducted off-site well in advance of the ICC hearing date. The ICC will oversee, stamp and legitimise the negotiated outcome.
That's my understanding. Others may have different views, which I respect.
Cheers
F
Although called a court in name, the ICC does not make formal judgments on disputed matters. Instead, it exercises judicial supervision of arbitration proceedings, including ensuring procedural fairness of the negotiations, proper application of ICC rules, approving final awards and ensuring that they are robust and enforceable (My paraphrasing and emphases).
The ICC International Court of Arbitration to support C5’s 3rd Annual Conference - ICC - International Chamber of Commerce
The International Court of Arbitration of the International Chamber of Commerce (ICC), is lending its support to the C5’s 3rd Annual conference “International Dispute Resolution Involving Russian and CIS Companies” on 27-28 February in London.
iccwbo.org
What this means is that the ICC's roles and responsibilities are different from the its sister organisation, the International Court of Cassation (France) that is the ultimate arbiter on whether the law was followed in commercial disputes. This court's decision is final.
What does this mean for AVZ and other vested parties?
Noting that negotiations are hopefully already well advanced or at least underway; it means that the ICC is the forum for AVZ to formalise any final negotiated position. In the usual manner, negotiations will be conducted off-site well in advance of the ICC hearing date. The ICC will oversee, stamp and legitimise the negotiated outcome.
That's my understanding. Others may have different views, which I respect.
Cheers
F
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So AVZ tables evidence of corruption, breach of contract etc and state their position that Zijin have no legal basis to claim anything.Not trying to be inflammatory, just this would be the logical outcome. How can their be any other result unless Zijin have information that we have not been given?
Mr Inappropriate
Regular
The strategy is all about time IMO. It‘s about our adversaries putting in place obstacle after obstacle to chew up time in the hope that:
- We give up or cede ground
- We run out of cash
- There is some cataclysmic event e.g. ASX delisting, a helpful EGM outcome
- There is a change of government to one more willing to do China’s evil bidding.
Samus
Top 20
This old news article gives a bit more insight into Zijin's arguments. Worth reading again imo.
World-class Manono Lithium Mine in the DRC to be developed soon, Zijin Mining holds a 15% interest in the project-News-Zijin Mining Group Co., Ltd.
Zijin News – Her Excellency Antoinette N'Samba Kal
www.zijinmining.com
Kenyan traders protest against Chinese competitor's cheap prices
More than a thousand Kenyan traders protested in the capital Nairobi on Tuesday against a new Chinese-owned retail shop they accuse of undercutting them with ultra-low prices.
To your last point there, it's conceivable that China, playing the long game, would sponsor DRC media activity to elect whoever they want to become their political puppet for the next presidential term (legally or through corrupt means). Worth keeping an eye on this, although I'm unsure what one could do to change it.
Mr Inappropriate
Regular
I think it is more likely than not.
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