4DS Discussion

[Deena]

Bit hard to tell whether this will be good news or bad news

They said testing would take months .....what could they have found that is price sensitive and significant in a week??

I really don't know what to make of this at all

Hopeful for good news but I certainly wasn't expecting any technical updates this early in the supposedly extensive testing cycle

No point in speculating because I really don't have a clue

Just have to wait until Monday I guess

Fingers crossed!

Have you checked out the new 4DS Investor Hub? Not much to see there at the moment apart from being an easy way to check past announcements and presentations.
Having said that I was there just after the last announcement regarding the delivery of the 3rd Platform lot to California, and there is a question and answer section there. David McAuliffe answers a question in a video. Have a listen from the 2:25 minute mark. This gives me great hopes for this announcement and a significant re-rate as I believe David would have had access from some of the results from Imec which prompted his promising tone.

What do you think?

ASX:4DS - Quarterly Activity Report & Appendix 4C

Read and interact with this announcement: Quarterly Activity Report & Appendix 4C on 4DS Memory's investor hub

announcements.4dsmemory.com

 

[Winenut]

Have you checked out the new 4DS Investor Hub? Not much to see there at the moment apart from being an easy way to check past announcements and presentations.
Having said that I was there just after the last announcement regarding the delivery of the 3rd Platform lot to California, and there is a question and answer section there. David McAuliffe answers a question in a video. Have a listen from the 2:25 minute mark. This gives me great hopes for this announcement and a significant re-rate as I believe David would have had access from some of the results from Imec which prompted his promising tone.

What do you think?

ASX:4DS - Quarterly Activity Report & Appendix 4C

Read and interact with this announcement: Quarterly Activity Report & Appendix 4C on 4DS Memory's investor hub

announcements.4dsmemory.com

Thanks for the video link

Much appreciated

For me the video doesn't provide much more than we already know

If the wafers are successful yes we would expect a significant re-rate...nothing new there

What I did get from the video between 1:20 and 1:40 was that once the wafers are received they will be able to provide a more "definitive" estimation of the time it will take to extensively test them.

Maybe this is what the current TH is about. After popping the wafers on for the initial testing they have ascertained a more concrete timeframe for the completion of the extensive testing?

Previous commentary indicated PL3 results and announcements some time in October.......Maybe it will be sooner? Or maybe it will be later based on what they've seen in the first week???

Still don't clearly know what the TH is about and really only speculating

 

[Deena]

Thanks for the video link

Much appreciated

For me the video doesn't provide much more than we already know

If the wafers are successful yes we would expect a significant re-rate...nothing new there

What I did get from the video between 1:20 and 1:40 was that once the wafers are received they will be able to provide a more "definitive" estimation of the time it will take to extensively test them.

Maybe this is what the current TH is about. After popping the wafers on for the initial testing they have ascertained a more concrete timeframe for the completion of the extensive testing?

Previous commentary indicated PL3 results and announcements some time in October.......Maybe it will be sooner? Or maybe it will be later based on what they've seen in the first week???

Still don't clearly know what the TH is about and really only speculating

Hmm. Thinking that if it is just about a more concrete timeframe, then a TH is not warranted. I think this will be a more substantial announcement than that.
I am still hopeful that it will be really positive.

 

[Winenut]

Hmm. Thinking that if it is just about a more concrete timeframe, then a TH is not warranted. I think this will be a more substantial announcement than that.
I am still hopeful that it will be really positive.

Yep agree on all points....the timeframe would have just been a normal announcement .....probably not price sensitive

We await the news!

 

[Winenut]

and we have the news and it's fucked

Very disappointing but that's life investing in bleeding edge innovation

Good luck with your other investments everyone

Cheers
Nut

 

[Iseki]

Looks messy. Like Stanford and imec not in the same conversation. Like that builder isn't talking to the architect and we've ended up with nothing.

 

[Xray1]

Looks messy. Like Stanford and imec not in the same conversation. Like that builder isn't talking to the architect and we've ended up with nothing.

I can't work out what's going on and whether there is any possibility of this moving forward ... I suppose I have no real choice but to wait it out for a few weeks to see if the Co gives another Co update of what they are thinking of doing ??!!!!

 

[Deena]

I can't work out what's going on and whether there is any possibility of this moving forward ... I suppose I have no real choice but to wait it out for a few weeks to see if the Co gives another Co update of what they are thinking of doing ??!!!!

It would be nice if they had identified the problem and it appeared fixable in another platform lot, however the indications are that this could take quite some time to come up with a workable fix. I only wish that there was more information available by way of an explanation and if they can identify a suitable solution and time-frame.

Regardless, my reaction is to stow my shares in the bottom draw and wait for an outcome one way or the other. At least Western Digital is still on board, so here's hoping for a positive outcome along the line.
Deena

 

[Winenut]

It would be nice if they had identified the problem and it appeared fixable in another platform lot, however the indications are that this could take quite some time to come up with a workable fix. I only wish that there was more information available by way of an explanation and if they can identify a suitable solution and time-frame.

Regardless, my reaction is to stow my shares in the bottom draw and wait for an outcome one way or the other. At least the Western Digital is still on board, so here's hoping for a positive outcome along the line.
Deena

I'm waiting for guidance from management as to what the root cause problem is, what is required to fix the issue(s), who will be involved, what the overall strategy is now to take this to a working megabit array (if that's even possible) and what is the proposed timeframe

If I get that sort of clarity from 4DS in the next announcement(s) I will then be in a position to decide whether to continue to hold or exit the investment and look elsewhere

I won't be exiting without any knowledge of what the situation is however my only concern is 4DS has NEVER been good at providing real clarity often hiding behind NDA's and general secrecy in relation to their IP and patents

Cheers
Nut

 

[Deena]

I'm waiting for guidance from management as to what the root cause problem is, what is required to fix the issue(s), who will be involved, what the overall strategy is now to take this to a working megabit array (if that's even possible) and what is the proposed timeframe

If I get that sort of clarity from 4DS in the next announcement(s) I will then be in a position to decide whether to continue to hold or exit the investment and look elsewhere

I won't be exiting without any knowledge of what the situation is however my only concern is 4DS has NEVER been good at providing real clarity often hiding behind NDA's and general secrecy in relation to their IP and patents

Cheers
Nut

Some sound logic Winenut. Unfortunately I'm a bit of a tragic and will hold my shares hoping for a positive outcome eventually. There is a lot at stake if they eventually come good.
Deena

 

[Winenut]

Some sound logic Winenut. Unfortunately I'm a bit of a tragic and will hold my shares hoping for a positive outcome eventually. There is a lot at stake if they eventually come good.
Deena

I'll continue to hold too.....but only if they can clearly map out in detail the problems and then the recitification strategy with an indication of the likelyhood of success

Good luck to us!

 

[Winenut]

Zero new news or clarification in the report released today

Was hoping their might be "something" additional in the report beyond the very limited basic facts we already know about the recent failure

I have developed a mushroom syndrome

 

[Winenut]

The recent announcement provides a little optimism however my concern is they still do not definitively know the root cause of the last platform lot failure

The language in the announcement is the "most likely" cause of the issue was the etch process

That's a "most likely" not we know definitively

Also I am concerned how many changes they are making in the next platform lot process

If something goes wrong they still won't know the root cause AND they will have additional variables they will then need to consider

I would have preferred fix the etch and test (make sure that problem is 100% put to bed and resolved)

From there introduce the enhancements on a further platform lot in a proper iterative process

I am concerned they will shoot themselves in the foot again trying to take short cuts

Surely at this stage of the game a few more months (slow and steady) for certainty would be appropriate because if it doesn't work again this time we're looking at another year to sort the mess out ...assuming it will be possible

Patience required here.....lots and lots of patience

 

[Iseki]

The recent announcement provides a little optimism however my concern is they still do not definitively know the root cause of the last platform lot failure

The language in the announcement is the "most likely" cause of the issue was the etch process

That's a "most likely" not we know definitively

Also I am concerned how many changes they are making in the next platform lot process

If something goes wrong they still won't know the root cause AND they will have additional variables they will then need to consider

I would have preferred fix the etch and test (make sure that problem is 100% put to bed and resolved)

From there introduce the enhancements on a further platform lot in a proper iterative process

I am concerned they will shoot themselves in the foot again trying to take short cuts

Surely at this stage of the game a few more months (slow and steady) for certainty would be appropriate because if it doesn't work again this time we're looking at another year to sort the mess out ...assuming it will be possible

Patience required here.....lots and lots of patience

I agree with you completely. Taking a short cut hasn't worked.
It would be good to know what the other parties think (imec, stanford) Do they agree with this solution?
Why didn't they flag something before?

To be brutally honest we must only pay for future etches etc with shares. Not cash.

I've use the boost to sell half down.

I'm worried about in-house testing. Has the new equipment been used on the earlier versions of what we've got back?
Too many variables seem to be changing to test things. Should we really add in the stanford changes? Or can they only help? Does imec agree?

 

[Winenut]

I agree with you completely. Taking a short cut hasn't worked.
It would be good to know what the other parties think (imec, stanford) Do they agree with this solution?
Why didn't they flag something before?

To be brutally honest we must only pay for future etches etc with shares. Not cash.

I've use the boost to sell half down.

I'm worried about in-house testing. Has the new equipment been used on the earlier versions of what we've got back?
Too many variables seem to be changing to test things. Should we really add in the stanford changes? Or can they only help? Does imec agree?

I think the testing regime is okay

The new equipment is industry standard such that the results can be trusted by all external parties

The idea there was to bring confidence to the market that the testing equipment is unbiased, state of the art, up to date and credible

We'll just have to wait and see as they rework the etch process and bake the new wafers which will then go into the next megabit array

Unfortunately at this stage it really is just a matter of "fingers crossed"

 

[Winenut]

Well there seems to be a bit of action on the 4DS front

Speeding ticket from the ASX....thanks for that

Nothing more than a bit of optimism again I think on the basis that the board have been measured with some announcements and don't appear to have thrown in the towel

Still lots of unknowns

I suspect some holders who sold out have possibly been buying back in

Don't expect the response from 4DS to be anything more than no new information, no leaky ship and activity related to AGM and recent presentation

 

[Deena]

That's a good move up today of 14.7% after the announcement of their 34th patent. It must be getting closer to the production of their next platform lot.

Hopefully, with some good results, getting closer to the end game of selling the company to a willing buyer. The question is though. Is Weebit Nano stealing all the thunder?

 

[Deena]

That's a good move up today of 14.7% after the announcement of their 34th patent. It must be getting closer to the production of their next platform lot.

Hopefully, with some good results, getting closer to the end game of selling the company to a willing buyer. The question is though. Is Weebit Nano stealing all the thunder?

Once again we have a string of good gains. Does someone know something about the 4th platform lot do you think, or is it just that a result is getting closer?
Deena

 

[Winenut]

That's a good move up today of 14.7% after the announcement of their 34th patent. It must be getting closer to the production of their next platform lot.

Once again we have a string of good gains. Does someone know something about the 4th platform lot do you think, or is it just that a result is getting closer?
Deena

Got your answer today!!!

Woohoo!!!!

 

[Winenut]

This is an excellent announcement today (part posted below)

Hopefully the positive news flows will continue as further testing is undertaken

Improved metrics must surely support a substantial commercial transaction some time in the not too distant future