With HC being unbearable I hope to receive some knowledgeable feedback on this forum and reach some sort of informed view on what our investment is worth.
I've made the simplest of NPV calculations for the Manono mine and would be grateful for informed views on my assumptions so I can update (and share) my simple calculations. I have seen other versions of this in the past on HC and I'm sure some of you have done this before with better knowledge of mining economics than my O&G experience allows me to bring to the table.
This is my summary input/output:
View attachment 7895
key assumptions:
-) initial mine at 700KT/pa SC6% and 45KTpa PLS (as per DFS) start in mid 2024
-) continue building to double initial capacity in 2026 of 1.5MTpa SC6% and 90KTpa PLS
-) Total cost of the mine $1.2bln
-) Transport and Opex cost $300/Te
-) Long term price SC6% = $1,500/Te; PLS = $15,000/Te
-) Tax rate 33.5% (inclusive of royalties non-ferrous materials)
In my view this is the low-side scenario. Further Tin revenues, mine capacity & ore reserves expansion and LiOH plant opportunities can be added but I'm interested to know what a reasonable initial FID commitment can deliver and consequently what a reasonable share price is either at time of production or a Take-Over soon after FID. It is nowhere near $10, but any switched-on investor doing these simple calcs can also see that this is a stock worth north of 1 USD per share EVEN IF we end up with just 36% stake in Datchcom.
Constructive feedback much appreciated, thanks in advance!