AVZ Discussion 2022

BRICK

Where’s Zeebot 😶‍🌫️
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BRICK

Where’s Zeebot 😶‍🌫️
And in good news, she has an identical twin!

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Sure she aint Nigellas cousin?

7f30a9aa80468ed7c87edb6d6487434f.jpg
 
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wombat74

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Xerof

High Hopes 1994
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Cumquat Cap

Regular
With the mining licence in place and sovereign risk neutralised by US backing, the floor valuation for Roche Dure is USD $6–8 billion, based on recent comparable transactions.

At that level, AVZ shareholders walk away satisfied, and the buyer — whether it’s Kobold or someone else — secures an asset that will generate extraordinary long-term returns.

If there’s competitive tension or multiple bidders, valuations could easily push toward USD $10–12 billion. This isn’t wishful thinking — the resource scale, global lithium demand, and geopolitical backing are all undeniable.

Frankly, anyone floating numbers below $6B either hasn’t done the work or is pushing an agenda. And if shareholders are forced into accepting a lowball outcome after years of obstruction and delay, a class action is inevitable — and no one sees a cent until that’s resolved.

It’s also critical that any distribution of proceeds to shareholders is executed via a share buyback or liquidation, not as a dividend or income-style return. If AVZ structures it in a way that denies shareholders access to the 50% CGT discount, it will absolutely trigger further legal action.

As for Jens now appearing to talk down the value of the project — I genuinely don’t understand his shift in position. He previously talked it up, so the change is confusing. It seems likely he was receiving information from someone on the ground in the DRC, and that pipeline may have dried up.

That said, if shareholders are materially harmed and it’s shown that public commentary influenced sentiment or misled investors, he could face legal consequences as well. No one is immune from scrutiny if this goes south.
Fanciful to say the least, what if the offer is no where near that are we supposed to continue legal action against a bankrupt company for the foreseeable future?

Hoping for the most possible but competitive pressure is paramount, try and be realistic ffs
 
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Xerof

High Hopes 1994
@wombat74

Mate, what’s the ground telling your ear now, after yesterdays announcement? Seems to me there is optionality still available to anyone who’s interested and there is no deal yet
 
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Xerof

High Hopes 1994
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Flight996

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Re: Valuation of mannono using Rio Tito's recent investment in Salar de Maricunga

On 20th of May 2025 Rio Tinto announced it was in partnership with Chile’s state-owned copper producer Codelco to develop the Salar de Maricunga lithium project. Investing $900M to aquire a 49.99% stake in the project.

Salar de Maricunga: Approx. 1.9Mt LCE
Amount Rio Owns:
1,900,000t x 49.99% = 949,810t
Price/tonne LCE
900 milion÷ 949,810t = $947/tonne

Roche Dure: 12.9Mt LCE
Full price for Roche Dure:
$947 x 12,900,000t = $12,216,300,000
AVZ 75% intrest:
$12,216,300,000 x 75% = $9,162,225,000
= $9.1B USD or $4.02AUD/share

Please note:
• All numbers in USD unless stated otherwise
• Salar de Maricunga uses brine method of extraction ( Hard Rock > Brine)
• Roche Dure was measured at approx. 317Mt tonnes of spodumene ore at 1.63% converting to about 12.9Mt LCE
• RIO expects first lithium production by the end of 2030
• VALUE OF TIN NOT INCLUDED!!!!!

Personal coments:
Just comparing the numbers. I don't want to get anyones hopes up and I could be completely wrong so take these numbers with a teaspoon of salt. All my own opinion.
Sources: https://www.australianresourcesandi...ming-the-worlds-second-largest-lithium-miner/

Re: Roche Dure was measured at approx. 317Mt tonnes of spodumene ore at 1.63% converting to about 12.9Mt LCE

You may need a bigger boat because:

In January 2024, Roche Dure Measured, Indicated, and Inferred Mineral Resource increased to 669 million tonnes (Mt) grading 1.61% Li2O, 690ppm Sn, and 33ppm Ta, containing 10.79 Mt of lithium oxide. Measured + Indicated = 500Mt, and Inferred = 169Mt.

Your recalculations will be interesting.

Cheers
F
 
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Fanciful to say the least, what if the offer is no where near that are we supposed to continue legal action against a bankrupt company for the foreseeable future?

Hoping for the most possible but competitive pressure is paramount, try and be realistic ffs

Fanciful? What’s fanciful is pretending a Tier-1 lithium asset with a granted mining licence, US backing, and global strategic relevance is worth anything less than $6–8B. That’s not hopium — that’s what the numbers say when you compare it to other deals, and Roche Dure leaves those in the dust in both scale and grade.

If an offer comes in well below that, then yes — shareholders have every right to pursue legal action. And it won’t be against a “bankrupt company” — it’ll be against directors, advisors, and anyone else who facilitated a sale that doesn’t reflect market value. Precedent exists for that.

No one’s saying we hold out for the moon — but lowballing this now under the guise of “realism” isn’t smart, it’s submission. Competitive pressure is exactly what gets us a real price. Settling for crumbs before that pressure plays out is how value gets stolen.
 
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Cumquat Cap

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I meant continuing legal action against a corrupt country in the DRC. Not sure continuing this will give us another chance.

Would never mention numbers but I know several larger holders (of which dominate the register) who would happily sell below this. I am no where near that and would be disappointed bur with several hundred grand in my bank account after this shit show, zero chance I’m holding settlement up for the chance to get back in the ring with the corrupt fuckwit DRC government.

Food for thought at least, suspect we will get less than that rough valuation but still enough to rotate into new an exciting investment opportunities.

Hopefully find out in the next week or two fingers crossed
 
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ptlas

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Fanciful? What’s fanciful is pretending a Tier-1 lithium asset with a granted mining licence, US backing, and global strategic relevance is worth anything less than $6–8B. That’s not hopium — that’s what the numbers say when you compare it to other deals, and Roche Dure leaves those in the dust in both scale and grade.

If an offer comes in well below that, then yes — shareholders have every right to pursue legal action. And it won’t be against a “bankrupt company” — it’ll be against directors, advisors, and anyone else who facilitated a sale that doesn’t reflect market value. Precedent exists for that.

No one’s saying we hold out for the moon — but lowballing this now under the guise of “realism” isn’t smart, it’s submission. Competitive pressure is exactly what gets us a real price. Settling for crumbs before that pressure plays out is how value gets stolen.
US$6 billion, or less than A$3 ps IS lowballing
 
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Panther22

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A bit of light reading . Surprise surprise the new Justice Minister is as rotten to the core as the rest of them .


They can't help themselves, it's in their DNA. All of them.
 
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Mute22

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There seem to be two distinct camps of holders in the current discussion:

1) Long-term holders – Often early entrants who now hold millions of shares. Many in this group are seeking a quick resolution, driven largely by lifestyle considerations.

2) High-risk newer investors – typically holding anywhere from tens of thousands to several hundred thousand shares. They’re more focused on achieving what they believe is fair value for their investment, even if it requires more patience.

The first group is increasingly pushing to lower expectations, suggesting we should accept whatever offer is on the table because “this is our only exit.” The second group sees this as premature, arguing that setting a low bar now is like entering a bidding war against ourselves before the race has even started.

Reading between the lines on our most recent announcement, removal of Kobolds interview etc. despite what the US media might say, AVZ is making it clear that this deal might be done in Kobold's mind, but nothing is set in stone yet, leaving us open to other bidders.

At the end of the day, neither group is likely to influence the final outcome. So, perhaps the best course of action is to relax and let the process be negotiated by the guy with a private island and jet plane on the line.
 
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Skar

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I meant continuing legal action against a corrupt country in the DRC. Not sure continuing this will give us another chance.

Would never mention numbers but I know several larger holders (of which dominate the register) who would happily sell below this. I am no where near that and would be disappointed bur with several hundred grand in my bank account after this shit show, zero chance I’m holding settlement up for the chance to get back in the ring with the corrupt fuckwit DRC government.

Food for thought at least, suspect we will get less than that rough valuation but still enough to rotate into new an exciting investment opportunities.

Hopefully find out in the next week or two fingers crossed
Previously our only market was China, despite everything we did to shop it around only China was willing to invest. China was willing to work with us (Cath) and steal from us (Zijin - enabled by DRC corruption). China just want the lithium as the project holds way more importance (and value) downstream for them. The US has now entered the critical mineral space (with EU/other G7 still talking about it but will soon enter as well). IF the peace deal goes through it drastically changes the operating conditions of the DRC (and Africa). Manono is a spec in the total size of African mineral wealth, weather its 5B, 10B, 20B of the value out of the hundreds of billions of value at Manono.... we are still talking trillions and trillions from Africa (so the peace deal will go ahead with/without AVZ). There will be other buyers if not now soon - western companies will not be able to flout ICSID like China can. The good news is US want this resource and seemingly understand its value - lets put that to the test.

Also those large retail holders are not in the same circumstances, I have a decent enough allocation of shares, a life changing amount... or we could get more value out of the project, instead of a quick exit and I could help out a few relatives too.
 
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cruiser51

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Pokok

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Im a white Aussie you inbred coward snake. I dont negotiate with baby raping demons, so just get back on topic and stop derailing the fucking thread you jewball. This is the abt 5th time youve attempted to post the same off-topic trolling pic.

Nice selfie BTW


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Okay children you will all be sent to your room without dinner , please keep to the topic at the dinner table
 
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Pokok

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cruiser51

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With the new superannuation rules due as per 1 July, for people holding AVZ shares in their super accounts, it could well be handy if the funds are in your account pre that date.
I don't know if Africa moves that fast, normally the Omega watch has to be specially detuned for Africa.
 
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Yaseen

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Okay children you will all be sent to your room without dinner , please keep to the topic at the dinner table
But that dinner was promised to him 3000 years ago
 
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