AVZ Discussion 2022

[CHB]

Time is on their side. Not ours. Fines will be ignored. Vast majority of arbitration fines are waived as part of negotiated outcomes. 7 bod members on the payroll with farcical bonuses is insane for the situation we are in.
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Mate, they don't want to, that's clear.
It's not about hoping they change their mind now, it's about applying pressure so that if they don't do the right thing, the ramifications will be worse than if they steal it.
And there is a LOT of pressure.

DRC are cornered. IMO.

I don't think they're cornered yet. What Carlos said is right, time not on our side. The Locke funding is critical. Guessing it's awaiting some sort of outcome from what DRC do before finalising? Otherwise DD wouldn't take so long if they weren't waiting on something specific IMO.

Problem is the main pressure could be 2026 by the time the big court cases happen

 

[Azzler]

What I said was on the assumption that funding wont be a problem.
If we can't get funds, yes it's over.

Provided we have money to continue, we've got so much on out side I consider them cornered. They can still decide to throw a punch and steal it, but they'll get fucked up if they do.
Can you think of any way they can get out of this unscathed if they steal it? (again provided we do have funds going forward.)

 

[BEISHA]

These court cases can't come fast enough.

IMO don't expect anything to happen once government formed. I still believe if they wanted to decisions could have happened prior to forming government.

Also likely some other excuse pops up after forming government.

"I still believe if they wanted to decisions could have happened prior to forming government."

Agree, in fact FT has no opposition what so ever to get in his way if he wanted to get things done , according to the link below...

Actualité | Jean – Claude Katende : «L’opposition politique est incapable de se mettre ensemble pour surveiller la gouvernance du régime actuel» | mediacongo.net

Sous le régime de Félix Tshisekedi, le rôle de l’opposition politique n’est pas de plus ressenti comme cela était le cas avec les anciens...

www.mediacongo.net

( right mouse click for english translation )

 

[CHB]

What I said was on the assumption that funding wont be a problem.
If we can't get funds, yes it's over.

Provided we have money to continue, we've got so much on out side I consider them cornered. They can still decide to throw a punch and steal it, but they'll get fucked up if they do.
Can you think of any way they can get out of this unscathed if they steal it? (again provided we do have funds going forward.)

If there actually was pressure from the western governments then there would be some sort of way they would fund the company.

Else it all goes to China

 

[Azzler]

If you're right then we're sitting pretty arent we.

 

[Hudnut]

"28 Mar 2024 — The Australian government will commit $1 billion to help build a domestic solar panel manufacturing industry"

$20M towards an Australian company maintaining control of the world's largest hard rock lithium resource would seem a pittance in comparison.

 

[BEISHA]

https://www.news.com.au/finance/business/mining/chinas-big-move-to-cut-off-australian-iron-ore/news-story/50eae131e0b7e6cb71966210dc78de68

China doesnt like to be dependent on other countries for supply of minerals, cant control the narrative, so once again, Africa is the solution.

No wonder they want Manono, by hook or by crook.

China is Australias biggest trading partner and meant to be our "friend"...........

But actions suggest other wise...

WAKE UP ALBO!!!

 

[Hudnut]

Nations don't have friends. Only interests.

 

[Dazmac66]

The elephant in the room is actually in the ground. The opportunity cost to the DRC while the lithium remains buried is staggering. How can Felix sleep at night knowing what his people are being deprived of? This is what keeps me shaking my head.
I can understand China not caring how long it takes to mine - as long as they eventually gain control.
The other head shaker is the weekly meeting of government Ministers. In the years we have been perusing the minutes there has hardly been a mention if the world's finest lithium deposit!! WTF is wrong with these people?

 

[Carlos Danger]

I don't think they're cornered yet. What Carlos said is right, time not on our side. The Locke funding is critical. Guessing it's awaiting some sort of outcome from what DRC do before finalising? Otherwise DD wouldn't take so long if they weren't waiting on something specific IMO.

Problem is the main pressure could be 2026 by the time the big court cases happen

What I said was on the assumption that funding wont be a problem.
If we can't get funds, yes it's over.

Provided we have money to continue, we've got so much on out side I consider them cornered. They can still decide to throw a punch and steal it, but they'll get fucked up if they do.
Can you think of any way they can get out of this unscathed if they steal it? (again provided we do have funds going forward.)

I meant time is on their side as we have no choice but to wait for hearings without a deal even with the money from Locke. Meanwhile Manono Lithium is trucking along drilling the north and will be awarded a PE for 15775 at the earliest opportunity. We will win the arbitrations imo but it will take a long time unless we cave to their demands. Which management clearly aren't going to do.

It would just be better for all involved if the bod were honest with shareholders about the situation and outlay the expected timeframe of the ICSID proceedings in an official announcement just like they did with Dathomir ICC case. Speaks volumes that they haven't and the only person that was divulging that information has been silenced imo

Mentally I'm prepared for the fact that we will need to go the distance. Including being in a digoil situation with still no tangible return on our positive arbitration results a decade from now. And all the dilution and / or further litigation funding payback needed for that scenario. If anything positive happens sooner than that then it will be a welcome miracle.

 

[BEISHA]

"28 Mar 2024 — The Australian government will commit $1 billion to help build a domestic solar panel manufacturing industry"

$20M towards an Australian company maintaining control of the world's largest hard rock lithium resource would seem a pittance in comparison.

Yeah, its bullshit that AVZ is doing all the heavy lifting, then the west will whinge that China controls the lithium sector when they had the instruments to avoid such a situation.

AVZ is in a parlous financial situation, partially poor management by our BOD, but getting screwed over with the courts and waiting game.

Fucked up!

 

[BEISHA]

The elephant in the room is actually in the ground. The opportunity cost to the DRC while the lithium remains buried is staggering. How can Felix sleep at night knowing what his people are being deprived of? This is what keeps me shaking my head.
I can understand China not caring how long it takes to mine - as long as they eventually gain control.
The other head shaker is the weekly meeting of government Ministers. In the years we have been perusing the minutes there has hardly been a mention if the world's finest lithium deposit!! WTF is wrong with these people?

 

[Doc]

I meant time is on their side as we have no choice but to wait for hearings without a deal even with the money from Locke. Meanwhile Manono Lithium is trucking along drilling the north and will be awarded a PE for 15775 at the earliest opportunity. We will win the arbitrations imo but it will take a long time unless we cave to their demands. Which management clearly aren't going to do.

It would just be better for all involved if the bod were honest with shareholders about the situation and outlay the expected timeframe of the ICSID proceedings in an official announcement just like they did with Dathomir ICC case. Speaks volumes that they haven't and the only person that was divulging that information has been silenced imo

Mentally I'm prepared for the fact that we will need to go the distance. Including being in a digoil situation with still no tangible return on our positive arbitration results a decade from now. And all the dilution and / or further litigation funding payback needed for that scenario. If anything positive happens sooner than that then it will be a welcome miracle.

Was a huge shame that the card shark was silenced. Would love to know who did and why they did it.
Appreciate you picking up a little of that slack to keep us somewhat informed

 

[Dazmac66]

Was a huge shame that the card shark was
silenced. Would love to know who did and why they were.
Appreciate you picking up a little of that slack to keep us somewhat informed

Yeah The Joker was on the money! Hey 9Card how about a thumbs up so we know your not in an acid barrel in China Town!! (Or a wok)

 

[CHB]

Yeah The Joker was on the money! Hey 9Card how about a thumbs up so we know your not in an acid barrel in China Town!! (Or a wok)

I might have ate him in my BBQ pork bun this morning

🥹
Kidding

 

[wombat74]

I meant time is on their side as we have no choice but to wait for hearings without a deal even with the money from Locke. Meanwhile Manono Lithium is trucking along drilling the north and will be awarded a PE for 15775 at the earliest opportunity. We will win the arbitrations imo but it will take a long time unless we cave to their demands. Which management clearly aren't going to do.

It would just be better for all involved if the bod were honest with shareholders about the situation and outlay the expected timeframe of the ICSID proceedings in an official announcement just like they did with Dathomir ICC case. Speaks volumes that they haven't and the only person that was divulging that information has been silenced imo

Mentally I'm prepared for the fact that we will need to go the distance. Including being in a digoil situation with still no tangible return on our positive arbitration results a decade from now. And all the dilution and / or further litigation funding payback needed for that scenario. If anything positive happens sooner than that then it will be a welcome miracle.

Only way out of this is for a compromise/settlement (if one exists) . Talk of it still taking years/ decades is absurd and not in Share Holders best interests . 2 years of this sh1t is already far too long . Better SH have their investment $$ back in their own pockets .

 

[CHB]

Only way out of this is for a compromise/settlement (if one exists) . Talk of it still taking years/ decades is absurd and not in Share Holders best interests . 2 years of this sh1t is already far too long . Better SH have their investment $$ back in their own pockets .

If we go by what has occurred to date, the DRC is not interested in compromising.

I imagine that's part of the problem

 

[Carlos Danger]

Only way out of this is for a compromise/settlement (if one exists) . Talk of it still taking years/ decades is absurd and not in Share Holders best interests . 2 years of this sh1t is already far too long . Better SH have their investment $$ back in their own pockets .

If we go by what has occurred to date, the DRC is not interested in compromising.

I imagine that's part of the problem

100%

Management have repeatedly indicated their desire in official announcements for a 'negotiated outcome'. Yet all we get from Cominiere / DRC government is antagonism, corrupt actors being promoted and a refusal to enact the ICSID interim orders. If the only choice is capitulation or a cents on the dollar buyout then holding firm with the arbitration path is the right choice come what may.

But it has been two years of suspension and we have only gone backwards in terms of our acquired rights and that doesn't seem likely to change anytime soon imo. I just think the chinese whispers hopium is doing more harm than good and reality is going to hit those with inside words hard one day. Most likely if the ASX kicks us off the exchange because let's face it our only course of business at this point is litigation.

 

[SilentOne]

100%

Management have repeatedly indicated their desire in official announcements for a 'negotiated outcome'. Yet all we get from Cominiere / DRC government is antagonism, corrupt actors being promoted and a refusal to enact the ICSID interim orders. If the only choice is capitulation or a cents on the dollar buyout then holding firm with the arbitration path is the right choice come what may.

But it has been two years of suspension and we have only gone backwards in terms of our acquired rights and that doesn't seem likely to change anytime soon imo. I just think the chinese whispers hopium is doing more harm than good and reality is going to hit those with inside words hard one day. Most likely if the ASX kicks us off the exchange because let's face it our only course of business at this point is litigation.

People need to stop jumping at shadows and simply wait for the announcements. Some on here speculate and speculation gets treated as the word of god. Thank goodness the Board is not run like a chat forum otherwise you would have something to complain about.

Lets see how things play out as this forum is highly unlikely going to influence outcomes apart from increase the anxiety of those that dont know how to spell "sovereign risk".

I think that the BOD have done an awesome job as we are still in the game.

Do you own research - SilentOne

 

[Carlos Danger]

Fasken and the ICSID will probs update their websites imminently. Or those deleted post now blowing up the wechat's is hopium. I guess tim will tell on that one.

https://www.fasken.com/en/solution/clientwork/2023/10/zijin-mining-jin-cheng-mining-and-cominiere-advance-international-arbitration-disputes

Case Details | ICSID

icsid.worldbank.org