PNV Ann: NovoSorb MTX First Sales and March 2023 $6m Revenue - 2nd May 2023, 12:00pm

[annb0t]

PNV Ann: NovoSorb MTX First Sales and March 2023 $6m Revenue
Price Sensitive: Y
Date: 2nd May 2023, 12:00pm

>>> Read announcement: Google: PNV Market Announcements

 

[kickit2me]

Will post updates on projections here later today.

 

[kickit2me]

OK guys. Here it is:

This is the chart showing the UPDATED (Q21) Quarterly model:

As you can see, yesterday's data gives the last quarterly BTM sales value as just below the projection.

When the FY23 yearly projection is recalculated it moves from the previous $55.4m sales to a new projection of $54.6m sales.

Pretty much what the share price ended up reflecting - a marginally lower value (excluding all other information in the report that could be speculated on.)

I did note however that BARDA had jumped significantly so my yearly revenue projection has remained pretty constant at $59.8m

If people are not happy with the growth rate in that trendline then they should look elsewhere. Of course they will find nothing like it, with the low levels of risk that PNV offers.

Disclosure: I traded that spike for a nice profit. I'm still trying to catch up with those of averages under $1 ...lol

Happy to answer questions.

...

 

[kickit2me]

OK guys. Here it is:

This is the chart showing the UPDATED (Q21) Quarterly model:

View attachment 35558
As you can see, yesterday's data gives the last quarterly BTM sales value as just below the projection.

When the FY23 yearly projection is recalculated it moves from the previous $55.4m sales to a new projection of $54.6m sales.

Pretty much what the share price ended up reflecting - a marginally lower value (excluding all other information in the report that could be speculated on.)

I did note however that BARDA had jumped significantly so my yearly revenue projection has remained pretty constant at $59.8m

If people are not happy with the growth rate in that trendline then they should look elsewhere. Of course they will find nothing like it, with the low levels of risk that PNV offers.

Disclosure: I traded that spike for a nice profit. I'm still trying to catch up with those of averages under $1 ...lol

Happy to answer questions.

...

I notice Macquarie did a slight downwards change in value. In keeping with the data.

 

[Space Cadet]

OK guys. Here it is:

This is the chart showing the UPDATED (Q21) Quarterly model:

View attachment 35558
As you can see, yesterday's data gives the last quarterly BTM sales value as just below the projection.

When the FY23 yearly projection is recalculated it moves from the previous $55.4m sales to a new projection of $54.6m sales.

Pretty much what the share price ended up reflecting - a marginally lower value (excluding all other information in the report that could be speculated on.)

I did note however that BARDA had jumped significantly so my yearly revenue projection has remained pretty constant at $59.8m

If people are not happy with the growth rate in that trendline then they should look elsewhere. Of course they will find nothing like it, with the low levels of risk that PNV offers.

Disclosure: I traded that spike for a nice profit. I'm still trying to catch up with those of averages under $1 ...lol

Happy to answer questions.

...

Hi @kickit2me

Long time no hear. Good to have you over here. Maybe just the 2 of us. I haven't been doing any big research into PNV since coming here as I am quite comfortable where the company is at. I would have been only talking to myself. Nice model. Remember it from the crapper. What a great company.

SC

 

[kickit2me]

Hi SC

Quite a few of us were running alternate discussion to HC on Bulls Eye which has recently closed - so happy to bring it over here.

I've just had a look at seasonal effects on the recent Q3FY23 result.

This table summarises my residual analysis by quarters of the financial year.

What it shows is that FYQ3 is on average 0.12 million lower than the smooth model of data.

The particular result we just got, was 0.34m lower. So in effect, taking seasonality into account, it was 0.22m lower than projected. That means the $13.8m result was about $220k on the low side of what would have been expected.

In a monthly view, Jan & Feb were poor - March was outstanding - lets hope that upward blip continues into April ...

...

 

[Lattelarry]

I'm here too Space Cadet!

Results look fine to me. Typical ASX overreaction from unrealistic expectations.

I'm quietly confident next FY the growth can be lifted with new product and markets. Would really like to see 90m hit.

Any thoughts on Swami? I think next year will be a big test for him. He will have had long enough by then to start showing some progress with India etc. So far I don't see any impact from him.

 

[kickit2me]

I'm here too Space Cadet!

Results look fine to me. Typical ASX overreaction from unrealistic expectations.

I'm quietly confident next FY the growth can be lifted with new product and markets. Would really like to see 90m hit.

Any thoughts on Swami? I think next year will be a big test for him. He will have had long enough by then to start showing some progress with India etc. So far I don't see any impact from him.

Hi "Larry"

You'd have to assume any progress in India could be put down to him. Plus other progress doesn't seem to be slowing, so he's going alright there too.

DW too smart to hire and/or retain someone not capable or achieveing.

 

[whytee]

I'm also here..
Whytee

 

[whytee]

Since this is more private I can reveal I was put in touch with a sales manager for PNV and provided some introductions for her at a couple of public hospitals. I'm not brave enough to ask her how it went, but maybe her presentation and charm will lead to sales. At the very least she has contacts with senior surgeons at a couple of hospitals that use this type of product and she can pursue sales.

 

[whytee]

Swami probably has a project agenda he is trying to follow.

1. The launch into India
2. Expansion of the manufacturing facility
3. Expansion of the BARDA trial to Canada and India
4. The diabetic foot ulcer treatment and a potential podiatry company takeover or partnership in the US.

So he's a busy guy as these things are going on simultaneously. The entry into India will be his focus because it's familiar territory and the other PNV management don't know much about it. That's one of the main reasons they brought him in. So I expect him to hire people he knows and trusts and at the same time he will be approaching surgeons about participating in the BARDA trial. I expect he will be there in person off an on.

I'm curious to know the progress of the foot ulcer trial. I haven't checked the clinicaltrials page to see if the protocol has been updated.

I think the hernia and breast projects are largely on the back burner. If you want an investment in that area, ARX does seem like a decent play.

Kick, can you remind me the start date for your quarterly graph? That will help me place dates on the x axis.
I have a suspicion that the middle part of the graph was Covid affected and flattened the curve. If you were to translate the past 12-24months to the left a few quarters that steepens the curve and in my imagination suggests things could be accelerating now. But it depends on the company continuing to hire and achieve RoW growth of 100% again. So growth outside the US will be key to getting $90m FY24...

I could always be wrong but I think AVH growth will be anaemic. The recent FDA approval for trauma was easy to get BUT it's use in trauma where there is usually significant tissue loss that needs to be addressed will be severely limited. Because HC is dominated by people with limited clinical knowledge they haven't understood that.

Good luck to us.

 

[kickit2me]

Swami probably has a project agenda he is trying to follow.

1. The launch into India
2. Expansion of the manufacturing facility
3. Expansion of the BARDA trial to Canada and India
4. The diabetic foot ulcer treatment and a potential podiatry company takeover or partnership in the US.

So he's a busy guy as these things are going on simultaneously. The entry into India will be his focus because it's familiar territory and the other PNV management don't know much about it. That's one of the main reasons they brought him in. So I expect him to hire people he knows and trusts and at the same time he will be approaching surgeons about participating in the BARDA trial. I expect he will be there in person off an on.

I'm curious to know the progress of the foot ulcer trial. I haven't checked the clinicaltrials page to see if the protocol has been updated.

I think the hernia and breast projects are largely on the back burner. If you want an investment in that area, ARX does seem like a decent play.

Kick, can you remind me the start date for your quarterly graph? That will help me place dates on the x axis.
I have a suspicion that the middle part of the graph was Covid affected and flattened the curve. If you were to translate the past 12-24months to the left a few quarters that steepens the curve and in my imagination suggests things could be accelerating now. But it depends on the company continuing to hire and achieve RoW growth of 100% again. So growth outside the US will be key to getting $90m FY24...

I could always be wrong but I think AVH growth will be anaemic. The recent FDA approval for trauma was easy to get BUT it's use in trauma where there is usually significant tissue loss that needs to be addressed will be severely limited. Because HC is dominated by people with limited clinical knowledge they haven't understood that.

Good luck to us.

This is it @whytee - with 21 being the qtr just reported

In addition: I keep my BARDA data within this section and you can spot the spike in BARDA last quarter.

 

[whytee]

Thanks Kick.

 

[Lattelarry]

I would love to see DW rebuy the shares he sold if we get close to $1 again. I'm sure it's extremely unlikely but would be amusing too.

 

[whytee]

I would love to see DW rebuy the shares he sold if we get close to $1 again. I'm sure it's extremely unlikely but would be amusing too.

If it gets down to a dollar he might start buying again. Somethings are probably too good to pass up.

 

[Lattelarry]

If it gets down to a dollar he might start buying again. Somethings are probably too good to pass up.

I had been thinking that it will be very interesting to see the short action again at this price. I see on HC that Doc was also thinking this too.
So far its not the shorts pushing it down so I doubt it will go as low as last time, but will be watching them closely in case that changes.

 

[whytee]

I had been thinking that it will be very interesting to see the short action again at this price. I see on HC that Doc was also thinking this too.
So far its not the shorts pushing it down so I doubt it will go as low as last time, but will be watching them closely in case that changes.

Well at least one broker analyst rates it as a sell. If Wilsons dropped their target price from $2 to 90c, it's probably them. I have 1 broker rating it as a buy and 3 more outperform. The current sell off is against the consensus, so I would predict their is some mischief going on with short traders.

Whats probably rattled some investors like "Hapman" is the false inpression that sales growth is falling. They have nutty expectations on the rate of growth already (he was even predicting $8m/month in 2022) as the result of an unexpectedly good Q2, so Q3 looked disappointing, even though it was pretty normal.

I can completely understand why the company doesn't want to give quarterly updates because of stupid over reactions and volatility. But from another perspective it's an opportunity. I'm sure DW was grateful the share price dropped below $1 and he took full advantage. If Kick's charting predicts $6m/mo in December 2023 and $7m/mo in July 2024, then we should be good for $90m FY2024 once BARDA reimbursement is added on.

 

[Lattelarry]

If Kick's charting predicts $6m/mo in December 2023 and $7m/mo in July 2024, then we should be good for $90m FY2024 once BARDA reimbursement is added on.

I think with MTX now launched and selling we should have a very good shot at the $90m and a bit higher growth above Kick's trend line. I guess the only risk is if MTX canabalises some of BTM's sales.

 

[DARRELLJAMES]

Thanks for the heads up on this page. HC is a warzone when announcements get made.
Kicks charts are very useful

 

[Space Cadet]

Hi guys,

Good to see a few over here. Since left HC I haven't been following PNV a great deal but still hold. 2 reasons, I am extremely confident so haven't seen the need to and there was no one to discuss with, as I was done with the other place. Nice to see that the cream of the crop, has come over. Will now take more interest although well behind you guys.

SC