PNV Ann: First ever A$7M Sales Month - 7th Jun 2023, 9:12am

[Lattelarry]

I saw it here:

View attachment 37926

Unfortunately that's my spreadsheet and I don't have a note on that cell as to where it came from. If I get time, I will go back and see if I can find it.

Your evidence is compelling - but not sure it sounds right - too low. 2022 was $3.8m, up on $3.7m, up on $3.1m. Constantly growing. $1.7m for 1H23 seems too low.


Yep. Extra sales wouldn't spike production costs at all due to margins.

Found the answer in the notes. So they sold $2.1m to BARDA but only got payment for $1.7 so far.

 

[kickit2me]

On the Statement of P or L it has revenue from contracts with customers @ $29.3m
On the cashflows statement we see the cash received is the 25.7 + 1.7 so the $27.3m includes BARDA.
The difference between the 2 is because under perpetual accounting you recognise the revenue when you send the product out, not when the cash is received. So I don't think its possible to say if the difference is from sales to customers or BARDA.

The other thing I just noticed is the loss under financing on the CF Statement.
Repayment of principal on borrowings (1,430,966) - so this looks like a one off. Without that the loss for the half was only $2.4m

We could easily be cash flow positive this half considering May sales and this one off hit.

Hang on I might change this - just thinking if it could be something else

Got to admit - Im a mathematician not an accountant

We are getting down to fine details here - happy to refine what I've got - but its not going to change the overall and given we are talking projections - no guarantees

 

[kickit2me]

Found the answer in the notes. So they sold $2.1m to BARDA but only got payment for $1.7 so far.

View attachment 37931

Also there is this ...,

No need to get too worried about being 100% in data when you are then just doing modelling from it.

...

 

[Lattelarry]

Also there is this ...,

View attachment 37932
No need to get too worried about being 100% in data when you are then just doing modelling from it.

...

Other income is tiny

 

[kickit2me]

Other income is tiny
View attachment 37933

Here's what I now have on other income - I've added BARDA & OTHER into my data records. There may be more in the 4D & 4Es but I haven't been chasing it previously. Found below in the 4D for 1H23:

Plus here's where we look at the possibility of 2H23 being closer to "even" ...

Just a couple of million needed - a $7.2m month pretty close to that couple of million we need

...

 

[Space Cadet]

Checking back for seasonality ...

Based on 5 data points for each:

May averages $172,000 below expected value. Making this May result even more exceptional.

Q4 averages $50k below expected value. Once again meaning this Q4 looks to be exceptional.

...

Fire away with questions. Could not be happier here

Hi Kick,

I was reading through your posts and first thought was seasonal data. You answered that for me. Thanks for that. It makes these figures both intriguing and compelling. Looking forward to June Month and quarterly.

SC

 

[Lattelarry]

Hi Kick,

I was reading through your posts and first thought was seasonal data. You answered that for me. Thanks for that. It makes these figures both intriguing and compelling. Looking forward to June Month and quarterly.

SC

June month will be very interesting - given that we know we are 100% going to get a figure that we can work out the month from (at least revenue if not sales).
If its sales are above 6 or maybe 6.5 then I think we can say the company has entered a new higher growth phase and we could be looking at close to $100m in revenue (prob not sales) next FY. Previously I thought $90m was possible but a big stretch.

 

[kickit2me]

June month will be very interesting - given that we know we are 100% going to get a figure that we can work out the month from (at least revenue if not sales).
If its sales are above 6 or maybe 6.5 then I think we can say the company has entered a new higher growth phase and we could be looking at close to $100m in revenue (prob not sales) next FY. Previously I thought $90m was possible but a big stretch.

June is on average $219k above expected value.
The expected value is $5.553m

So a figure of $5.772 would be "par".

That would make FY23 $59.6 + BARDA + OTHER ~ $65m (the MacQ estimate)

 

[Lattelarry]

June is on average $219k above expected value.
The expected value is $5.553m

So a figure of $5.772 would be "par".

That would make FY23 $59.6 + BARDA + OTHER ~ $65m (the MacQ estimate)

Or if we take the $59.1 already announced and add $5.8 sales + $0.7 BARDA = $65.6
There is also quite a good chance we will beat this.

Employee expenses in 2H22 were $13.8m and in 1H23 $17.7 if this grows a similar amount we are looking at 2H23 = $21.6m

2H23: Revenue $36.2

Expenses:
Inventory: 2.0
Exployee expense: 21.6
R&D: 3.0
Corp Overhead: 10
Add back Depreciation and Share Payment: (1.6)
Total = 36.6
NLAT/NPAT (ex non cash) very close to break even.

 

[kickit2me]

Looking a lot like the poster Hap"girl" over at HC is really just another downramper. If not, they are very arrogant. Constantly getting numbers wrong, but pretending to know it all.
My guess is trying to create over-expectations and then deride management for not meeting his expectations.

 

[Lattelarry]

Looking a lot like the poster Hap"girl" over at HC is really just another downramper. If not, they are very arrogant. Constantly getting numbers wrong, but pretending to know it all.
My guess is trying to create over-expectations and then deride management for not meeting his expectations.

Yep I'd say so. Rarely responds to pointing those things out.

 

[Lattelarry]

Playing around with SP vs Revenue:

 

[kickit2me]

Beautiful in its "stupidity".

I'd post that elsewhere too

 

[Lattelarry]

Looks like we took about 2 years to go from 20m to 40m and only maybe 10 months to go from 40m to 60m

 

[Lattelarry]

If I project next FY @ $100m

 

[Westsurf]

Hi everyone ... apologies for not posting sooner. Kickit2me great work as usual.

Larry isn't the SP poor considering the change in revenue.

I have to admit I have really had a gutful of HC posters even having the majority of down rampers and idiots ignored. Most PNV threads are close to useless for me now.

My best to everyone4 here.

Westy

 

[Lattelarry]

Hi everyone ... apologies for not posting sooner. Kickit2me great work as usual.

Larry isn't the SP poor considering the change in revenue.

I have to admit I have really had a gutful of HC posters even having the majority of down rampers and idiots ignored. Most PNV threads are close to useless for me now.

My best to everyone4 here.

Westy

Hey Westy good to have you here.

Yeah SP is ridiculous. Who's selling at these prices with revenue taking off?

 

[Westsurf]

Hey Westy good to have you here.

Yeah SP is ridiculous. Who's selling at these prices with revenue taking off?

It makes no sense to me ... particularly when health care is normally recession proof.

Mind you there is a lot in the current Australian environment that makes no sense to me.

 

[Westsurf]

Bump …

 

[Lattelarry]

Bump …

where do you think this will go from here?
I'm guessing that Sept/Oct were not really high as not much mentioned at AGM.
But this time of year its typically done well.
My guess is slight increase until end of year then possible dump if half year not really strong.