PNV Ann: First ever A$7M Sales Month - 7th Jun 2023, 9:12am

[annb0t]

PNV Ann: First ever A$7M Sales Month
Price Sensitive: Y
Date: 7th Jun 2023, 9:12am

>>> Read announcement: Google: PNV Market Announcements

 

[kickit2me]

OK. First up.

This graph shows the magnitude of this monthly result. [Note I have back calculated April to be ~$5.4m]

Note especially that the regression curve on this graph is the NEW one that includes this 7.2m data point. It has a gradient of 0.92, up from the previous one of 0.70.Thats a massive upswing!

So what you see the monthly result exceeding the projection by, is how much it exceeds the new projection that includes itself as a value. A lot!

Quarterly graph and Projections to follow.

 

[kickit2me]

Monthly projections ... (Remember I now prefer quarterly as they will be less prone to aberrations)

FY23 was $54.98m BTM sales.

FY23 is now $57.89m BTM sales (not much increased because only June to go).

FY 2024 is now $78m BTM sales.

 

[kickit2me]

So to work with this $7.2m result and quarterly numbers I've had to estimate the June monthly.
To do that I used the new monthly regression model which suggests June to be $5.6m (you would think this would be at the least).

Now we get the following quarterly graph ...

Once again, you can see how far June is above the NEW raised regression line.

The gradient of the curve went from 0.0175 to 0.0252 - a massive increase in acceleration! It really is difficult to put the $7.2jm value down to just "lumpiness".

 

[kickit2me]

Effect on projected results using the revised model based on the $7.2m May result: (BTM Sales only)

FY23 was $54.6m - Now $57.8m (BARDA to add >$5m revenue)

FY24 was $71.7m - Now $78.2m

Next up I need to check my seasonal data and revise that. Is May expected to be a high month? Lets look ....

 

[kickit2me]

Checking back for seasonality ...

Based on 5 data points for each:

May averages $172,000 below expected value. Making this May result even more exceptional.

Q4 averages $50k below expected value. Once again meaning this Q4 looks to be exceptional.

...

Fire away with questions. Could not be happier here

 

[em1389]

Checking back for seasonality ...

Based on 5 data points for each:

May averages $172,000 below expected value. Making this May result even more exceptional.

Q4 averages $50k below expected value. Once again meaning this Q4 looks to be exceptional.

...

Fire away with questions. Could not be happier here

Great work @kickit2me! Much appreciated.

 

[Lattelarry]

Do you have an FY 25 projection?

 

[basiac]

Checking back for seasonality ...

Based on 5 data points for each:

May averages $172,000 below expected value. Making this May result even more exceptional.

Q4 averages $50k below expected value. Once again meaning this Q4 looks to be exceptional.

...

Fire away with questions. Could not be happier here

Thanks Kick.....

 

[kickit2me]

Do you have an FY 25 projection?

Just for you Larry

Using the base qrtly model it sits at $102m

But I also have another fully data based model that says $125m (uses only last 3 years data)

Projecting that far out is likely to include high probability of error.

...

 

[Lattelarry]

Just for you Larry

Using the base qrtly model it sits at $102m

But I also have another fully data based model that says $125m (uses only last 3 years data)

Projecting that far out is likely to include high probability of error.

...

Cheers!
It brings up a lot of questions this $7m.
Are things about to really take off or was this an aberration?
I'm hoping that its take off due to new product and new markets.
It wouldn't even include Integra's fail as that came pretty late in the month or it would be pretty minimal for May.

Rest of world was $4.5m for first 6 months - so $1.9m in a month is huge. Of course it could be from a big order that is unlikely to be repeated for a while.

I assume the reported revenue of $59.1m is including BARDA. I'm guessing about $64 - 65m for full year so pretty close to model.
With any luck next FY will be $90m so well above model.

It will be interesting to see what the loss comes in at. For the 1st half it was $3.8m.
May might have offset a big chunk of the loss for the 2nd half. Lets say down to $2m.
BARDA was only $1.7m for the 1st half. If we do pick up another $3m this half then our loss could actually drop from what was reported in the 1st half. That should put a rocket under it too.

Feels like the SP is still massively undervalued.

 

[kickit2me]

Cheers!
It brings up a lot of questions this $7m.
Are things about to really take off or was this an aberration?
I'm hoping that its take off due to new product and new markets.
It wouldn't even include Integra's fail as that came pretty late in the month or it would be pretty minimal for May.

Rest of world was $4.5m for first 6 months - so $1.9m in a month is huge. Of course it could be from a big order that is unlikely to be repeated for a while.

I assume the reported revenue of $59.1m is including BARDA so we have already exceeded the model. I'm guessing about $64 - 65m.

It will be interesting to see what the loss comes in at. For the 1st half it was $3.8m.
May might have offset a big chunk of the loss for the 2nd half. Lets say down to $2m.
BARDA was only $1.7m for the 1st half. If we do pick up another $3m this half then our loss could actually drop from what was reported in the 1st half. That should put a rocket under it too.

Feels like the SP is still massively undervalued.

The maths says that it is highly unlikely its just an aberration. Simply too far from the projected value.

Agree re not yet including the Integra fail effect.

Does say $59.1m includes BARDA. Remember the model DOES NOT include BARDA. I've accounted for the two different values.

When you get such a big spike, it can quickly improve the balance sheet as cost increases tend to be smooth.

BARDA was actually $2.2m for 1H23 and $1.9m for Q323. Its likely to be between 5 and 6m for the year.

I think the SP is about to be revalued. This is the first bit of data hitting the ball out of the park with obvious drivers that will not slow.

I expect it to continue rising after today.

...

 

[cosors]

Thanks Kick.....

Welcome basiac! You are our 3000th member here on TSE!

 

[Sammy]

I FOUND YOU KICK!!!
Internet sleuth work!!
Thanks again for all your efforts

 

[Lattelarry]

When you get such a big spike, it can quickly improve the balance sheet as cost increases tend to be smooth.

BARDA was actually $2.2m for 1H23 and $1.9m for Q323. Its likely to be between 5 and 6m for the year.
...

In the Cash Flows Statement they have BARDA at $1,696,873 for 1H23. Where did you see 2.2m?

The very good thing about PNV is the amazing margin, because the margins are 90%+ selling a lot more like this should add only a small amount to the cost of sales and almost nothing to the fixed costs/other expenses.

 

[kickit2me]

In the Cash Flows Statement they have BARDA at $1,696,873 for 1H23. Where did you see 2.2m?

View attachment 37921

The very good thing about PNV is the amazing margin, because the margins are 90%+ selling a lot more like this should add only a small amount to the cost of sales and almost nothing to the fixed costs/other expenses.

 

[kickit2me]

I saw it here:

Unfortunately that's my spreadsheet and I don't have a note on that cell as to where it came from. If I get time, I will go back and see if I can find it.

Your evidence is compelling - but not sure it sounds right - too low. 2022 was $3.8m, up on $3.7m, up on $3.1m. Constantly growing. $1.7m for 1H23 seems too low.


Yep. Extra sales wouldn't spike production costs at all due to margins.

 

[kickit2me]

Yep. Here's where I got it from ...

Suggestig that after auditing it changed slightly.

Do you have a link or date to your document @Lattelarry ? I'm trying to find it.

...

 

[kickit2me]

Got it ... 23rd February.

Will go back and edit my data. Thanks Larry

 

[kickit2me]

No need to edit.

The half yearly confirmed the values:

BARDA $2.2m ... was your data maybe USD?