FY25 Trading Results (unaudited)

[kickit2me]

Data that I didn't include on HC ...

The FY25 projected was actually $118.1m so $118.6m marginally beat that.

The Q4FY25 projected was $32.6m so $34.2 suggests a recent upturn. (Lumpy or permanent - who can tell?)

Remember that the point above the trend curve in this image is actually above the new trend curve - which constantly gets raised by data above what the past projects.

The rate of change for the quarterly model (the curve above) increased from the 0.0374 it was after Q3 to now be at 0.0391 after Q4.

So, the rate of increase continues to, in itself, increase - that is the maths/physics defn. of ACCELERATION

A reminder of ...

1. I'm only modelling SALES. Other incomes from BARDA and/or Other are not really able to be modelled.
2. I'm including BTM & MTX. These are our sales revenues.


...

 

[Lattelarry]

When looking back at your post a year ago growth was 0.0399 so good we are back at that.
A year ago you had first predicted 114.5 then revised it to 120.3 so pretty close to what 0.0399 was predicting.
This is why Swami was let go - rate of acceleration had slightly slowed. If India eventually starts buying a lot then credit there but it might take another 5 years for significant sales.

Seems like a very good result to me.
The strong lift in the cash balance was a surprise to me, especially since they have nearly $7m in late payments still to receive.
Its slightly annoying that the analysts aren't similarly accurate in their predictions.
Also I'm wondering if BARDA cash will soon end since its should be finished soon.

Will be interesting to see how the market reacts tomorrow.

 

[GKP]

Great work Kick and always appreciated by myself.

On a different note. Shorts identified the poor accounts reconciliation in the US as the genesis to go hard on PNV. Management have nearly got that issue in hand and it should not reoccur as they have now relieved the distributors/warehousers of this task. Having taken this task in house and now under Ed’s control in San Diego. One can only assume that we’ve now passed “peak short”. Let’s see what happens on that front.

 

[DARRELLJAMES]

Brilliant kick

 

[Lattelarry]

Great work Kick and always appreciated by myself.

On a different note. Shorts identified the poor accounts reconciliation in the US as the genesis to go hard on PNV. Management have nearly got that issue in hand and it should not reoccur as they have now relieved the distributors/warehousers of this task. Having taken this task in house and now under Ed’s control in San Diego. One can only assume that we’ve now passed “peak short”. Let’s see what happens on that front.

I think the short attack was because growth was 30% not 50% as Macquarie had predicted 12 months ago.
Maybe they also thought the CEO wouldn't be sticking around.
Seems crazy to me to short the company into the top 10 since it runs very well with a temp CEO.
I find it hard to believe they were hoping for a CR and its clear there is no chance of that now.

 

[GKP]

I think the short attack was because growth was 30% not 50% as Macquarie had predicted 12 months ago.
Maybe they also thought the CEO wouldn't be sticking around.
Seems crazy to me to short the company into the top 10 since it runs very well with a temp CEO.
I find it hard to believe they were hoping for a CR and its clear there is no chance of that now.

I had to pull my last post as you might have noticed. There was a good reason for that.

All I can say is that I draw your attention to the fact that all recent announcements, including last nights and DW's comments this morning have heavily focussed on the fact that all of the US past dues are now well on their way to being normalised and brought back to 30 day accounts. There is a very good reason for that! The shorts don't care what third party, ie Macquarie and others value PNV at. They do their own DD and proceeded to heavily short on the assumption that PNV was in for a cash squeeze. Their thesis was wrong.

 

[Lattelarry]

Data that I didn't include on HC ...

The FY25 projected was actually $118.1m so $118.6m marginally beat that.

The Q4FY25 projected was $32.6m so $34.2 suggests a recent upturn. (Lumpy or permanent - who can tell?)

Remember that the point above the trend curve in this image is actually above the new trend curve - which constantly gets raised by data above what the past projects.

View attachment 89104
The rate of change for the quarterly model (the curve above) increased from the 0.0374 it was after Q3 to now be at 0.0391 after Q4.

So, the rate of increase continues to, in itself, increase - that is the maths/physics defn. of ACCELERATION

A reminder of ...

1. I'm only modelling SALES. Other incomes from BARDA and/or Other are not really able to be modelled.
2. I'm including BTM & MTX. These are our sales revenues.


...

Can you share your prediction for the next 2 quarters?

 

[kickit2me]

I think the short attack was because growth was 30% not 50% as Macquarie had predicted 12 months ago.
Maybe they also thought the CEO wouldn't be sticking around.
Seems crazy to me to short the company into the top 10 since it runs very well with a temp CEO.
I find it hard to believe they were hoping for a CR and its clear there is no chance of that now.

I just listened to the David Williams chat.
From that, and what gkp said, I think the short was about an anticipated cash squeeze.

Now DW has jumped in and fixed that. He's fixed debtors. And he may have pulled a lever or two to spin off more cash.
So shorters theory is/was bust.

They wont panic, but they have to get back a LOT of shares with no obvious issue to leverage.

I'm expecting a quickish rebound to ~$2 and am still adding regularly.


...

 

[GKP]

I just listened to the David Williams chat.
From that, and what gkp said, I think the short was about an anticipated cash squeeze.

Now DW has jumped in and fixed that. He's fixed debtors. And he may have pulled a lever or two to spin off more cash.
So shorters theory is/was bust.

They wont panic, but they have to get back a LOT of shares with no obvious issue to leverage.

I'm expecting a quickish rebound to ~$2 and am still adding regularly.


...

I was made aware of the shorts reason to go hard on PNV back in March and it was definately, directly related to the delinquent US acc's and the perception of PNV running low on cash. The board and senior managment necking one another, I'm sure also gave them further motivation to go hard on the shorting.

Like you Kick I see the shorts backing out of their current position in a reasonably orderly fassion. Of course they may also lose control, as they did prior to the steep rise to $4 +/- back Nov/Dec 21. I don't think we'll have long to wait to find out either way.

I see the period around next 1/2 yearly report in Jan/Feb as being a critical pivot point.

1: Presumably a lot of extra cash dropping to the bottom line at the 1/2 yearly.
2: BARDA result either in or pending
3: Possible replacemet of SR by then. However it would not surprise me that it could take well into next year to find the right replacement. It's a tough one to fill. Any decent candidate is obviously going to take a good look at the company and the first thing that will become apparent to them is that the two previous CEO's were summarily sacked. Not a good look.

Personally I'd like to see DW declare his hand at the next AGM. I don't for a second doubt his commitment and passion for the company. However he's been more than 11 years on the board. Long enough for anyone, time to step aside. In fact, I think the entire board needs a good shake up. Of course we all know about opinions though don't we.

 

[Lattelarry]

If it was for the cash position - as I just said at HC - it seems madness since the customers aren't the type to do a runner.

They really should have been adjusting the cash figure to account for a good amount being repaid.

If you look at the shorts chart you can see the first small jump came out after the revenue figures in mid Jan. Then it started taking off even before the half year report came out - hopefully wasnt any leaks.
Its probably a combination of all 3 events (Growth, CEO, Cash) with the cash being the main eason they chose to go hard.

@kick I'm doubtful that DW pulled leavers - it seems to me its more likely it was $20m+ being repaid. I'm looking forward to checking the expenses this half when the yearly comes out and compare both halves.

It would be good if they can keep expenses from growing too much now - in the range of $100-$120m per year as they will then start to grow the bank balance significantly. Although I'm not sure how realistic this is given expansion costs.