FY25 Trading Results (unaudited)

[kickit2me]

Data that I didn't include on HC ...

The FY25 projected was actually $118.1m so $118.6m marginally beat that.

The Q4FY25 projected was $32.6m so $34.2 suggests a recent upturn. (Lumpy or permanent - who can tell?)

Remember that the point above the trend curve in this image is actually above the new trend curve - which constantly gets raised by data above what the past projects.

The rate of change for the quarterly model (the curve above) increased from the 0.0374 it was after Q3 to now be at 0.0391 after Q4.

So, the rate of increase continues to, in itself, increase - that is the maths/physics defn. of ACCELERATION

A reminder of ...

1. I'm only modelling SALES. Other incomes from BARDA and/or Other are not really able to be modelled.
2. I'm including BTM & MTX. These are our sales revenues.


...

 

[Lattelarry]

When looking back at your post a year ago growth was 0.0399 so good we are back at that.
A year ago you had first predicted 114.5 then revised it to 120.3 so pretty close to what 0.0399 was predicting.
This is why Swami was let go - rate of acceleration had slightly slowed. If India eventually starts buying a lot then credit there but it might take another 5 years for significant sales.

Seems like a very good result to me.
The strong lift in the cash balance was a surprise to me, especially since they have nearly $7m in late payments still to receive.
Its slightly annoying that the analysts aren't similarly accurate in their predictions.
Also I'm wondering if BARDA cash will soon end since its should be finished soon.

Will be interesting to see how the market reacts tomorrow.

 

[GKP]

Great work Kick and always appreciated by myself.

On a different note. Shorts identified the poor accounts reconciliation in the US as the genesis to go hard on PNV. Management have nearly got that issue in hand and it should not reoccur as they have now relieved the distributors/warehousers of this task. Having taken this task in house and now under Ed’s control in San Diego. One can only assume that we’ve now passed “peak short”. Let’s see what happens on that front.

 

[DARRELLJAMES]

Brilliant kick

 

[Lattelarry]

Great work Kick and always appreciated by myself.

On a different note. Shorts identified the poor accounts reconciliation in the US as the genesis to go hard on PNV. Management have nearly got that issue in hand and it should not reoccur as they have now relieved the distributors/warehousers of this task. Having taken this task in house and now under Ed’s control in San Diego. One can only assume that we’ve now passed “peak short”. Let’s see what happens on that front.

I think the short attack was because growth was 30% not 50% as Macquarie had predicted 12 months ago.
Maybe they also thought the CEO wouldn't be sticking around.
Seems crazy to me to short the company into the top 10 since it runs very well with a temp CEO.
I find it hard to believe they were hoping for a CR and its clear there is no chance of that now.

 

[GKP]

I think the short attack was because growth was 30% not 50% as Macquarie had predicted 12 months ago.
Maybe they also thought the CEO wouldn't be sticking around.
Seems crazy to me to short the company into the top 10 since it runs very well with a temp CEO.
I find it hard to believe they were hoping for a CR and its clear there is no chance of that now.

I had to pull my last post as you might have noticed. There was a good reason for that.

All I can say is that I draw your attention to the fact that all recent announcements, including last nights and DW's comments this morning have heavily focussed on the fact that all of the US past dues are now well on their way to being normalised and brought back to 30 day accounts. There is a very good reason for that! The shorts don't care what third party, ie Macquarie and others value PNV at. They do their own DD and proceeded to heavily short on the assumption that PNV was in for a cash squeeze. Their thesis was wrong.

 

[Lattelarry]

Data that I didn't include on HC ...

The FY25 projected was actually $118.1m so $118.6m marginally beat that.

The Q4FY25 projected was $32.6m so $34.2 suggests a recent upturn. (Lumpy or permanent - who can tell?)

Remember that the point above the trend curve in this image is actually above the new trend curve - which constantly gets raised by data above what the past projects.

View attachment 89104
The rate of change for the quarterly model (the curve above) increased from the 0.0374 it was after Q3 to now be at 0.0391 after Q4.

So, the rate of increase continues to, in itself, increase - that is the maths/physics defn. of ACCELERATION

A reminder of ...

1. I'm only modelling SALES. Other incomes from BARDA and/or Other are not really able to be modelled.
2. I'm including BTM & MTX. These are our sales revenues.


...

Can you share your prediction for the next 2 quarters?