smoothsailing18
Regular
Bravo...your not going the way of the old Uliux investor are you ?.
thestockexchange.com.au
thestockexchange.com.au
thestockexchange.com.au
Bravo...your not going the way of the old Uliux investor are you ?.
Simplified fmfGPT1
Contracts & Revenue.
BRN becomes a proper investment worthy growth company not a spec stock.
Couple near term catalysts that would be real handy this upcoming year. BOD need get them over the line.
Onsor trial goes boom. CE Mark and FDA Device approvals. Volume contract & royalties signed. Product goes parabolic.
Frontgrade generates more contract wins to go with their first one. GR801 becomes a standard for sat / space. Royalties ramp up.
Raytheon / Parsons come through and huge defence contracts awarded with long term BRN volume & royalties contract signed.
Arquimea locks in major volume drone / UAV agreements. Signs contract / royalties with BRN.
"Tell him he's dreaming" jumps out at me![]()
Went from avid fan to Turn coat over night.Not sure what that means sorry.
What way did they
Went from avid fan to Turn coat over night.
Hi Bravo,Seriously hoping Chatty’s hallucination engine has completely underestimated this one.
It says " today, the market-clearing outcome is most likely" $550-600 million dollars or 24 - 26 cents per share.
It also gave a "high-conviction" acquisition price range at $780 million – $1 billion dollars which translates to 35 - 44 cents per share, but this is based on the assumption of something material landing that shifts it from “interesting tech” to “must-own IP”.
Best case valuation it gave was 1.18 billion or 53 cents a share.
Looks like I might have to downsize my yacht order from this...
View attachment 93920
to this...
View attachment 93919
ChatGPT 5
You said:
What do you believe would be a plausible acquisition price range currently for BrainChip for a strategic buyer such as Qualcomm, for example.
ChatGPT said:
A plausible acquisition price range for BrainChip (BRN) by a strategic buyer like Qualcomm is best thought of as:
(today’s market cap) × (a takeover premium)
Because BrainChip’s current revenue is tiny relative to its valuation, any real bid would be strategic/IP-driven (team + patents + neuromorphic know-how + “option value”), not conventional EBIT/revenue multiple.
Anchor: BrainChip’s current market value
Recent quotes put BRN around ~A$380m market cap (e.g., ~A$0.17/share). Listcorp
(That number moves daily, so treat it as an anchor, not a constant.)
Typical takeover premium
For Australian public M&A, control premiums commonly land around ~30–50% (often more in hotter/contested deals). Norton Rose Fulbright+2Corrs Chambers Westgarth+2
What that implies in dollars (using ~A$380m as the base)
Base-case strategic takeout (most common): 1.3× to 1.8× market cap
High strategic value / urgency / competing bidders: 2.0× to 2.5×
- ~A$500m to ~A$700m
Blue-sky / “we must own this” / defensively blocking a rival: 3.0×+
- ~A$760m to ~A$950m
- ~A$1.1b+
This can happen, but usually needs a clear trigger (major design win, credible pipeline converting, or a buyer believing the tech meaningfully shifts a big roadmap).Why Qualcomm (or similar) might pay toward the higher end
- They’ve shown willingness to buy strategic silicon/IP capability (e.g., NUVIA was US$1.4B). Qualcomm
- They’re actively expanding into AI compute + data-center adjacent IP (e.g., Alphawave Semi deal reported around US$2.4B). Investopedia+2Yahoo Finance+2
Those aren’t direct comps to BrainChip, but they confirm Qualcomm will pay real money for “missing pieces” in a platform strategy.The big reality check
BrainChip’s cash position and burn matter because a buyer can always “wait them out” if there’s no near-term catalyst (cash balance figures are disclosed in quarterly/4C reporting). Intelligent Investor+1
That dynamic tends to cap premiums unless BrainChip has unmistakable momentum.
My best “plausible” range (today)
If you forced me to give a single practical band that wouldn’t sound ridiculous to either side:
~A$550m to ~A$950m (roughly 1.4× to 2.5× the ~A$380m anchor). Listcorp+2Norton Rose Fulbright+2
If you tell me BRN’s current share price/market cap today (or your own anchor), I’ll re-run the same logic and give you a tighter band in both AUD and USD.
You said:
Market cap is 394 million and share price is .175 cents
ChatGPT said:
Perfect — let’s lock it down with your numbers.
Inputs (confirmed):
Below is a clean, realistic acquisition framework assuming a strategic buyer like Qualcomm (i.e. IP + talent + long-term option value, not current revenue multiples).
- Market cap: A$394m
- Share price: A$0.175
30–50% control premium is very typical for Australian listed tech when there’s no bidding war.
Standard strategic takeover range (most plausible)
Premium Equity Value Implied Share Price +30% A$512m ~A$0.228 +40% A$552m ~A$0.245 +50% A$591m ~A$0.263
Verdict
A$510m – A$590m
~$0.23 – $0.26 per share
This is the most likely range today if Qualcomm (or similar) decided “we want the IP, the team, and to remove uncertainty”.
This assumes something material has landed, e.g.:
High-conviction / urgency scenario (credible catalyst present)
~2.0× – 2.5× market cap
- meaningful design win,
- visible licence revenue inflection,
- strategic defence / automotive validation,
- or Qualcomm sees neuromorphic as defensive IP they don’t want rivals owning.
Multiple Equity Value Implied Share Price 2.0× A$788m ~A$0.35 2.5× A$985m ~A$0.44
Verdict
A$780m – A$1.0b
~$0.35 – $0.44 per share
This is not fantasy, but it requires a clear strategic trigger.
This is the “we cannot let Nvidia / Intel / Apple / defence primes get this” scenario.
Blue-sky / defensive block (rare but real)
~3× market cap
This only happens if:
Metric Value Equity value ~A$1.18b Share price ~A$0.53
- neuromorphic becomes obviously inevitable in edge/defence, and
- BrainChip is clearly the commercial leader, not just a research play.
Without a near-term catalyst, buyers know BrainChip’s cash runway and can afford to wait — which caps the premium.
The uncomfortable truth (but important)
That’s why, today, the market-clearing outcome is most likely:
Anything materially above that requires momentum, not hope.
Depends on how the question is framed and the information provided - for future year valuations. Given the high level of insider holdings a bid around those values would have no chance of getting through.Seriously hoping Chatty’s hallucination engine has completely underestimated this one.
It says " today, the market-clearing outcome is most likely" $550-600 million dollars or 24 - 26 cents per share.
It also gave a "high-conviction" acquisition price range at $780 million – $1 billion dollars which translates to 35 - 44 cents per share, but this is based on the assumption of something material landing that shifts it from “interesting tech” to “must-own IP”.
Best case valuation it gave was 1.18 billion or 53 cents a share.
Looks like I might have to downsize my yacht order from this...
View attachment 93920
to this...
View attachment 93919
ChatGPT 5
You said:
What do you believe would be a plausible acquisition price range currently for BrainChip for a strategic buyer such as Qualcomm, for example.
ChatGPT said:
A plausible acquisition price range for BrainChip (BRN) by a strategic buyer like Qualcomm is best thought of as:
(today’s market cap) × (a takeover premium)
Because BrainChip’s current revenue is tiny relative to its valuation, any real bid would be strategic/IP-driven (team + patents + neuromorphic know-how + “option value”), not conventional EBIT/revenue multiple.
Anchor: BrainChip’s current market value
Recent quotes put BRN around ~A$380m market cap (e.g., ~A$0.17/share). Listcorp
(That number moves daily, so treat it as an anchor, not a constant.)
Typical takeover premium
For Australian public M&A, control premiums commonly land around ~30–50% (often more in hotter/contested deals). Norton Rose Fulbright+2Corrs Chambers Westgarth+2
What that implies in dollars (using ~A$380m as the base)
Base-case strategic takeout (most common): 1.3× to 1.8× market cap
High strategic value / urgency / competing bidders: 2.0× to 2.5×
- ~A$500m to ~A$700m
Blue-sky / “we must own this” / defensively blocking a rival: 3.0×+
- ~A$760m to ~A$950m
- ~A$1.1b+
This can happen, but usually needs a clear trigger (major design win, credible pipeline converting, or a buyer believing the tech meaningfully shifts a big roadmap).Why Qualcomm (or similar) might pay toward the higher end
- They’ve shown willingness to buy strategic silicon/IP capability (e.g., NUVIA was US$1.4B). Qualcomm
- They’re actively expanding into AI compute + data-center adjacent IP (e.g., Alphawave Semi deal reported around US$2.4B). Investopedia+2Yahoo Finance+2
Those aren’t direct comps to BrainChip, but they confirm Qualcomm will pay real money for “missing pieces” in a platform strategy.The big reality check
BrainChip’s cash position and burn matter because a buyer can always “wait them out” if there’s no near-term catalyst (cash balance figures are disclosed in quarterly/4C reporting). Intelligent Investor+1
That dynamic tends to cap premiums unless BrainChip has unmistakable momentum.
My best “plausible” range (today)
If you forced me to give a single practical band that wouldn’t sound ridiculous to either side:
~A$550m to ~A$950m (roughly 1.4× to 2.5× the ~A$380m anchor). Listcorp+2Norton Rose Fulbright+2
If you tell me BRN’s current share price/market cap today (or your own anchor), I’ll re-run the same logic and give you a tighter band in both AUD and USD.
You said:
Market cap is 394 million and share price is .175 cents
ChatGPT said:
Perfect — let’s lock it down with your numbers.
Inputs (confirmed):
Below is a clean, realistic acquisition framework assuming a strategic buyer like Qualcomm (i.e. IP + talent + long-term option value, not current revenue multiples).
- Market cap: A$394m
- Share price: A$0.175
30–50% control premium is very typical for Australian listed tech when there’s no bidding war.
Standard strategic takeover range (most plausible)
Premium Equity Value Implied Share Price +30% A$512m ~A$0.228 +40% A$552m ~A$0.245 +50% A$591m ~A$0.263
Verdict
A$510m – A$590m
~$0.23 – $0.26 per share
This is the most likely range today if Qualcomm (or similar) decided “we want the IP, the team, and to remove uncertainty”.
This assumes something material has landed, e.g.:
High-conviction / urgency scenario (credible catalyst present)
~2.0× – 2.5× market cap
- meaningful design win,
- visible licence revenue inflection,
- strategic defence / automotive validation,
- or Qualcomm sees neuromorphic as defensive IP they don’t want rivals owning.
Multiple Equity Value Implied Share Price 2.0× A$788m ~A$0.35 2.5× A$985m ~A$0.44
Verdict
A$780m – A$1.0b
~$0.35 – $0.44 per share
This is not fantasy, but it requires a clear strategic trigger.
This is the “we cannot let Nvidia / Intel / Apple / defence primes get this” scenario.
Blue-sky / defensive block (rare but real)
~3× market cap
This only happens if:
Metric Value Equity value ~A$1.18b Share price ~A$0.53
- neuromorphic becomes obviously inevitable in edge/defence, and
- BrainChip is clearly the commercial leader, not just a research play.
Without a near-term catalyst, buyers know BrainChip’s cash runway and can afford to wait — which caps the premium.
The uncomfortable truth (but important)
That’s why, today, the market-clearing outcome is most likely:
Anything materially above that requires momentum, not hope.
Like Ahab, I'm going down with the ship:From my perspective I don't think being realistic makes someone a turncoat.
What I find a bit frustrating is that the moment anything less than blind optimism is posted, the labels start to come out and I don't think that's very helpful for anyone.
I’ve been heavily invested in BrainChip for many years and am carrying a considerable paper loss. Staying optimistic has taken real effort n my behalf, and I’ve remained optimistic that for a very, very, very long time and it's getting exhausting. But I'm not prepared to lie to myself or cherry-pick only the positives while ignoring the negatives. That's called being in denial and I don't mean the River Nile.
I didn’t invent ChatGPT’s valuation. In today’s context it’s admittedly totally miserable and completely pathetic but that’s not my fault. I didn't write it. I was shocked by how low it was too but upon further consideration I thought it was a pretty accurate reflection of where the company actually is right now - hardly any licences and no material revenue. Added to that, it's ChatGPT’s valuation, so it may not even be worth the paper it's written on.
Don't get me wrong, I’d love nothing more than to see BrainChip acquired for $20 billion. Heck I reckon everyone would be over the moon! But that simply isn’t achievable unless we start signing licences and generating real revenue. Valuations don’t improve through hope alone, they improve through sales.
You even said yourself that BrainChip is "one of the most painful investments experiences you have had to date" and I didn’t accuse you of being a turn-coat, because I completely empathise with your frustration, as I'm sure many of us here on this forum do.
The reality is that neuromorphic computing has taken far longer to gain traction than most of us expected, and the company has made some missteps along the way. I don’t believe calling out the failings alongside the successes is disloyalty, just as I don’t believe honesty is an act of betrayal.
One final observation talking about valuation-related stuff, because it reminded me of a comment Antonio made at the AGM before last, when he said something along the lines of, “Do you know how much revenue we’d need for the share price to be at one or two dollars?” At the time, I was really annoyed that he said that. But with the benefit of hindsight, I’m starting to see it for what it was - a reality check.
That wasn’t ChatGPT talking. That wasn’t me talking. It was our own Chairman of the Board.
We're all exhausted by the wait. Getting to market is like Achilles and the tortoise, we halve the distance every year, ...From my perspective I don't think being realistic makes someone a turncoat.
What I find a bit frustrating is that the moment anything less than blind optimism is posted, the labels start to come out and I don't think that's very helpful for anyone.
I’ve been heavily invested in BrainChip for many years and am carrying a considerable paper loss. Staying optimistic has taken real effort n my behalf, and I’ve remained optimistic that for a very, very, very long time and it's getting exhausting. But I'm not prepared to lie to myself or cherry-pick only the positives while ignoring the negatives. That's called being in denial and I don't mean the River Nile.
I didn’t invent ChatGPT’s valuation. In today’s context it’s admittedly totally miserable and completely pathetic but that’s not my fault. I didn't write it. I was shocked by how low it was too but upon further consideration I thought it was a pretty accurate reflection of where the company actually is right now - hardly any licences and no material revenue. Added to that, it's ChatGPT’s valuation, so it may not even be worth the paper it's written on.
Don't get me wrong, I’d love nothing more than to see BrainChip acquired for $20 billion. Heck I reckon everyone would be over the moon! But that simply isn’t achievable unless we start signing licences and generating real revenue. Valuations don’t improve through hope alone, they improve through sales.
You even said yourself that BrainChip is "one of the most painful investments experiences you have had to date" and I didn’t accuse you of being a turn-coat, because I completely empathise with your frustration, as I'm sure many of us here on this forum do.
The reality is that neuromorphic computing has taken far longer to gain traction than most of us expected, and the company has made some missteps along the way. I don’t believe calling out the failings alongside the successes is disloyalty, just as I don’t believe honesty is an act of betrayal.
One final observation talking about valuation-related stuff, because it reminded me of a comment Antonio made at the AGM before last, when he said something along the lines of, “Do you know how much revenue we’d need for the share price to be at one or two dollars?” At the time, I was really annoyed that he said that. But with the benefit of hindsight, I’m starting to see it for what it was - a reality check.
That wasn’t ChatGPT talking. That wasn’t me talking. It was our own Chairman of the Board.
From my perspective I don't think being realistic makes someone a turncoat.
What I find a bit frustrating is that the moment anything less than blind optimism is posted, the labels start to come out and I don't think that's very helpful for anyone.
I’ve been heavily invested in BrainChip for many years and am carrying a considerable paper loss. Staying optimistic has taken real effort n my behalf, and I’ve remained optimistic that for a very, very, very long time and it's getting exhausting. But I'm not prepared to lie to myself or cherry-pick only the positives while ignoring the negatives. That's called being in denial and I don't mean the River Nile.
I didn’t invent ChatGPT’s valuation. In today’s context it’s admittedly totally miserable and completely pathetic but that’s not my fault. I didn't write it. I was shocked by how low it was too but upon further consideration I thought it was a pretty accurate reflection of where the company actually is right now - hardly any licences and no material revenue. Added to that, it's ChatGPT’s valuation, so it may not even be worth the paper it's written on.
Don't get me wrong, I’d love nothing more than to see BrainChip acquired for $20 billion. Heck I reckon everyone would be over the moon! But that simply isn’t achievable unless we start signing licences and generating real revenue. Valuations don’t improve through hope alone, they improve through sales.
You even said yourself that BrainChip is "one of the most painful investments experiences you have had to date" and I didn’t accuse you of being a turn-coat, because I completely empathise with your frustration, as I'm sure many of us here on this forum do.
The reality is that neuromorphic computing has taken far longer to gain traction than most of us expected, and the company has made some missteps along the way. I don’t believe calling out the failings alongside the successes is disloyalty, just as I don’t believe honesty is an act of betrayal.
One final observation talking about valuation-related stuff, because it reminded me of a comment Antonio made at the AGM before last, when he said something along the lines of, “Do you know how much revenue we’d need for the share price to be at one or two dollars?” At the time, I was really annoyed that he said that. But with the benefit of hindsight, I’m starting to see it for what it was - a reality check.
That wasn’t ChatGPT talking. That wasn’t me talking. It was our own Chairman of the Board.
But how many splits did NVIDIA have to reach this share price?Season's Greetings Bravo
Nicely worded, I agree with your sentiment.
I believe that the company has a lot of work to do in 2026, as in plenty of work.... midway through 2026 I believe we will finally
start to see some engagements bear some fruit, with the period July 2026 through July 2027 as a very nice period for us.
In a recent conversation, it was pointed out to me that Nvidia was around the 0.038c mark from 1999 to 2016 before moving up to
the $1 US mark to now just shy of $200 US a share......it seems to really paint a picture by the well-known artist, Mr. Reality Check
My personal belief in the Akida technology has only gotten stronger over the journey, it continues to evolve, to be fine-tuned to met
specific tasks and individual company's roadmaps, neuromorphic technology is advancing very nicely, and adoption is moving closer to
the other side of that Chasm.......and yes, I feel the frustration of all as well but just trying to remain patient.
No Regerts......Tech![]()