BRN Discussion Ongoing

Chilling

Member
FF,

I love your 18 points (now 19) and I understand your thinking. But I would like to add some observations about where I think the SP will head. At some point soon we will see the share price take off in a big way for the 19 reasons you have stated and for the following reasons:

1. Income will start hitting and if we see really significant quarterly increases that is going to excite a lot of interest. We have seen from the Annual Report that the growth in both the market and sales over the next few years are predicted to be exponential (and the exponential growth in both the market generally and sales will have a compounding effect). The SP growth should follow in an exponential fashion - not linear fashion - think about what that means.

2. The FOMO factor. We have already seen this in action several times with this stock already. Once it really starts running it can go up 100's of percent very quickly. At some point soon the general market is going to switch on to what is happening in the BRN business and we will see a tipping point that will see both institutional and retail investors scrambling for this stock. If this happens on a bigger scale that previously, and I believe it will, watch out!

3. Valuing potential. This stock has an incredibly wide addressable market, no competition, a low cost business model, really high margins and great management (the more I hear Sean speak the more I'm convinced he was the right choice as CEO). Again, sooner or later the market will see the incredible potential of this stock and start to value it accordingly. Moreover, at this point with the positive progress of the business, achieving that potential seems more than likely. It is in fact difficult to see how it isn't going to achieve the sort of success that has been predicted.

So as far as I'm concerned it is just the waiting game now. Share price by year end? I'm not sure but I believe we will be at $5 very quickly, if not by year end then at some point next year. I just can't see how that is not going to happen sooner rather than later.
I really hope you are correct on this as right atm is not feeling real good with the current share price.
We need some positive news sooner rather than later when will the next quarterly be released?
 
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GDJR69

Regular
I really hope you are correct on this as right atm is not feeling real good with the current share price.
We need some positive news sooner rather than later when will the next quarterly be released?
I really hope you are correct on this as right atm is not feeling real good with the current share price.
We need some positive news sooner rather than later when will the next quarterly be released?
Next quarterly report is due 28 April 2022.
 
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Equitable

Regular
Jaffles made with a well seasoned Jaffle iron over a wood fire. Toast on the outside eggs and bacon, mince or creamed corn on the inside. Nothing like it. FF
Reminds me of a short secondment I did as part of a tank crew at Puckapunyal back in the 1980s. We had an electric jaffle maker in our Leopard tank. Not quite the same as wood-fired but when you're out in the field you'll eat anything. We lived on egg and cheese jaffles. Tasted great!
 
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miaeffect

Oat latte lover
I really hope you are correct on this as right atm is not feeling real good with the current share price.
We need some positive news sooner rather than later when will the next quarterly be released?
1646984970892.jpg
 
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miaeffect

Oat latte lover
FF,

I love your 18 points (now 19) and I understand your thinking. But I would like to add some observations about where I think the SP will head. At some point soon we will see the share price take off in a big way for the 19 reasons you have stated and for the following reasons:

1. Income will start hitting and if we see really significant quarterly increases that is going to excite a lot of interest. We have seen from the Annual Report that the growth in both the market and sales over the next few years are predicted to be exponential (and the exponential growth in both the market generally and sales will have a compounding effect). The SP growth should follow in an exponential fashion - not linear fashion - think about what that means.

2. The FOMO factor. We have already seen this in action several times with this stock already. Once it really starts running it can go up 100's of percent very quickly. At some point soon the general market is going to switch on to what is happening in the BRN business and we will see a tipping point that will see both institutional and retail investors scrambling for this stock. If this happens on a bigger scale that previously, and I believe it will, watch out!

3. Valuing potential. This stock has an incredibly wide addressable market, no competition, a low cost business model, really high margins and great management (the more I hear Sean speak the more I'm convinced he was the right choice as CEO). Again, sooner or later the market will see the incredible potential of this stock and start to value it accordingly. Moreover, at this point with the positive progress of the business, achieving that potential seems more than likely. It is in fact difficult to see how it isn't going to achieve the sort of success that has been predicted.

So as far as I'm concerned it is just the waiting game now. Share price by year end? I'm not sure but I believe we will be at $5 very quickly, if not by year end then at some point next year. I just can't see how that is not going to happen sooner rather than later.
Screenshot_20220311-183041_Gallery.jpg

My doggy riders club love your thoughts
 
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Iseki

Regular
To answer FF's question as to future valuations you should really stick with what has worked in the past.
Like Moore's law.
Change it to be more modern and look at watts per transistor per 2years.
Incorporate some rule-of-thumbs like 1 neuron = 100000 transistors.
Add a constant because it's easier to demand that your chip maker go to 4nm rather than change the chip design.
Use schrodinger's equation to estimate the difference between what a person feels and the desperation in their community in general.

Solve this logistic differential equation and you'll see $2.20 SP is an attractor by June 30.

(Sir, I can't seem to attach my workings)
 
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I guess nobody challenges your determined value is because nobody knows what the fair value is at this stage. Some analyst came up with $1.50, some here mentioned $200.

When we had a few patents granted, CEO appointed and Mercedes mentioned Akida, the price went to $2.34. No more news and the price drift back to $1.03 today. Did that many things changed about Brainchip or Akida during this short period of time that changed the value of the company by over 50%?

Price and value are completely different things. Value does not change unless the company does something different or the public perception of the company has changed. Price changes all the time, every few seconds or so because price is influenced by many things, macro to the world's events, micro to an individual's circumstances or thinking. About 99.9% of people are not rational all the time. Greed and fear dominate most traders' minds.

I invested in Brainchip for its future value which I believe is a lot higher than the share price today (or the high of $2.34) and not for its current value. I think the fair value should be $10.20 in 5 years time. 70% chance that Brainchip can make $500M profit and a P/E of 50 or conservatively with a P/E of 25, the fair value should be $5.10.

Be patient, the company will reveal its true value in time.
Agree here, I have been thinking long and hard on Brainchip and it’s valuation at any point. It is so hard to value Brainchip now and it will be hard to value it at any point to be honest as it will always have NDA’s applied between them and their clients as each chip is released. I imagine the NDA’s will just proliferate over time as more and more customers come onboard to develop on their Akida platform/chips/IP.
Especially while Brainchip stays at the cutting edge of new AI tech their customers who will multiply with success will want to hide away their cutting edge products products as long as possible. Some may never reveal that Akida is inside!

So what will we see - I assume we will just see revenue flowing in and ideally growing on mass as each quarter/half passes and we will be thinking great work there is some more dollars, but really hard to potentially map out how long that revenue will maintain or how fast will that grow. All we can go on is those companies who are proud to break cover and advertise “Akida is inside”.

I can see it will be a very annoying but a rewarding journey that is for sure, while we wait for the really big players to reveal themselves in order for us to speculate 🧐 on their product runways...Which in turn we will then speculate on revenue p.a. and the flow on effect to the SP.

In effect Brainchip will be perpetually undervalued due to the NDA’s in place ongoing stopping every one from valuing the unknown products and their p.a. volume over time. A potentially nice problem to have though.

If we knew that Ford, Mercedes, Tata, US DOD, Nintendo (For example) were fully committed to the Brainchip tech in most/many of their end production products (which is massive numbers) then Brainchip could be easily valued at $20+ SP. (30 Billion+). The company has said many times they would love to reveal some key logos so they have to be very large right! Also as many tech people know that once you commmit to a tech platform you are usually committed to it for a few years or more to make it worth the development time/investment $$.

This could actually be the case right now that all of these companies/agencies have signed on but we don’t fully know if we have them fully locked in because of those annoying NDA’s. 😂 Therefore we have the continuing fun of speculation 😁 and with each BRN or third party reveal the SP can be allowed to get that next leg up..but always behind what is really the current state of contracts and products signed on for.

Time will reveal...most.

As for value it’s just a guesstimate at any point. Our crazy ride is just beginning for commercialisation and the SP.

Let’s just hope for many more to follow Mercedes and break cover and are proud to reveal that Akida is inside!
 
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Diogenese

Top 20
I really hope you are correct on this as right atm is not feeling real good with the current share price.
We need some positive news sooner rather than later when will the next quarterly be released?
Company spokesmen have spoken of revenue in the second half of the year, so we just have to wait.
 
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Diogenese

Top 20
To answer FF's question as to future valuations you should really stick with what has worked in the past.
Like Moore's law.
Change it to be more modern and look at watts per transistor per 2years.
Incorporate some rule-of-thumbs like 1 neuron = 100000 transistors.
Add a constant because it's easier to demand that your chip maker go to 4nm rather than change the chip design.
Use schrodinger's equation to estimate the difference between what a person feels and the desperation in their community in general.

Solve this logistic differential equation and you'll see $2.20 SP is an attractor by June 30.

(Sir, I can't seem to attach my workings)
Didn't Schrodinger invent the dead cat bounce?
 
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Galaxycar

Regular
You know you ask brainchip,when are they gunna start to tell us anything reference sales or something measurable,so you can at least try and put a value to the shares and they really don’t give a fat cracker about shareholders,I think they are happy letting the seller if he is a shorter reekhavoc to their company shareprice, it was LDA which was the large seller last time it went to $0.90 and management were delighting it when asked think we are getting screwed over again,the trading patten lately doesn’t indicate a buyer but does a seller they are buying up the cue a couple of cents then dumping into the buyers as they rock up all other trades are just swapping from one hand to the other. I hold a large shareholding and way in front but these NDA’S ARE A JOKE, it’s like trust us until it all goes wrong and they say but we told you nothing,great fan of factfinder and this crew here.
 
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M_C

Founding Member
You know you ask brainchip,when are they gunna start to tell us anything reference sales or something measurable,so you can at least try and put a value to the shares and they really don’t give a fat cracker about shareholders,I think they are happy letting the seller if he is a shorter reekhavoc to their company shareprice, it was LDA which was the large seller last time it went to $0.90 and management were delighting it when asked think we are getting screwed over again,the trading patten lately doesn’t indicate a buyer but does a seller they are buying up the cue a couple of cents then dumping into the buyers as they rock up all other trades are just swapping from one hand to the other. I hold a large shareholding and way in front but these NDA’S ARE A JOKE, it’s like trust us until it all goes wrong and they say but we told you nothing,great fan of factfinder and this crew here.
happy cry money tears2.gif
 
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Equitable

Regular
You know you ask brainchip,when are they gunna start to tell us anything reference sales or something measurable,so you can at least try and put a value to the shares and they really don’t give a fat cracker about shareholders,I think they are happy letting the seller if he is a shorter reekhavoc to their company shareprice, it was LDA which was the large seller last time it went to $0.90 and management were delighting it when asked think we are getting screwed over again,the trading patten lately doesn’t indicate a buyer but does a seller they are buying up the cue a couple of cents then dumping into the buyers as they rock up all other trades are just swapping from one hand to the other. I hold a large shareholding and way in front but these NDA’S ARE A JOKE, it’s like trust us until it all goes wrong and they say but we told you nothing,great fan of factfinder and this crew here.
Sorry to disagree mate, but the NDAs are far from being a joke. They are a very serious matter and crucial to our keeping our customers.

In knocking the company's attitude to shareholders, you forget that the largest shareholders are our founders. Their interests are very much aligned with ours. They do their best to communicate what is going on and a lot of that is shared here. The investor relations manager, Tony Dawe, from what I read here is very approachable and answers whatever he can.

Worrying about NDAs and who are customers are is short term thinking. Over the long term I have confidence that much revenue will be generated simply because our technology is mind-blowingly useful, market-leading and we have an experienced and enthusiastic marketing team out there educating the world about what we have.
 
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Diogenese

Top 20
You know you ask brainchip,when are they gunna start to tell us anything reference sales or something measurable,so you can at least try and put a value to the shares and they really don’t give a fat cracker about shareholders,I think they are happy letting the seller if he is a shorter reekhavoc to their company shareprice, it was LDA which was the large seller last time it went to $0.90 and management were delighting it when asked think we are getting screwed over again,the trading patten lately doesn’t indicate a buyer but does a seller they are buying up the cue a couple of cents then dumping into the buyers as they rock up all other trades are just swapping from one hand to the other. I hold a large shareholding and way in front but these NDA’S ARE A JOKE, it’s like trust us until it all goes wrong and they say but we told you nothing,great fan of factfinder and this crew here.
What is your understanding of the legal obligations on the parties to and NDA?
 
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Boab

I wish I could paint like Vincent
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Iseki

Regular
You know you ask brainchip,when are they gunna start to tell us anything reference sales or something measurable,so you can at least try and put a value to the shares and they really don’t give a fat cracker about shareholders,I think they are happy letting the seller if he is a shorter reekhavoc to their company shareprice, it was LDA which was the large seller last time it went to $0.90 and management were delighting it when asked think we are getting screwed over again,the trading patten lately doesn’t indicate a buyer but does a seller they are buying up the cue a couple of cents then dumping into the buyers as they rock up all other trades are just swapping from one hand to the other. I hold a large shareholding and way in front but these NDA’S ARE A JOKE, it’s like trust us until it all goes wrong and they say but we told you nothing,great fan of factfinder and this crew here.
Sometimes less is more.

A client likes BRN enough to investigate akida. That's gonna cost them money.
BRN helps them inside out. It's gonna take time, our time.
BRN can't say a client is working on some new, experimental thing.
What if they announce something and it takes twice as long to release? The SP will be decimated. How dare BRN get their estimates wrong! That's the way it works.

At least we can take solace in the fact that Google, Facebook, Intel are all spending billions on Neuromorphic chips, and in the fact that they themselves have not said how they will deploy them. (they arne't going into Tesla's are they.) That's how secret they all need to be.
 
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Realinfo

Regular
Something to ponder over the weekend TSE’ers…

There was a young fella who was born without arms, legs, not even a torso…he only had a head. All day long he would lie in his bed listening to other kids playing in the park across the road from his house. He wished and he wished that one day he would be able to join them.
One morning he awoke and felt different. He looked down, and to his astonishment saw that he had arms, legs, a torso…he was just like everyone else. He was so excited, he jumped out of bed, rushed downstairs, out through his front gate, across the road…and was hit by a car and killed.
This goes to show he should have quit while he was a head !!!

For mine others should quit whilst they‘re ahead.

If IBM and Intel want to stay relevant in the world of AI, they should quit spending ridiculous amounts of money on TrueNorth and Loihi, and take out a licence on Akida. They and others trying to discover Peter’s magic pudding risk becoming Kodaks if they don’t quit what they’re doing, and use Akida to power their AI applications.

On a different front, Putin should also quit whilst he’s ahead…if in fact he is. It wouldn’t have escaped NATO, US, India and others notice just how poor the supposed might of Russia is faring against a military minnow. China, a bitter and historic rival of Russia would also be observing this with great interest. Of even more interest to the CCP would be the impact of western economic sanctions on Russia. For mine not only Putin and his cronies will really suffer, but the whole of Russian society and their economy will spin into depression.
The CCP know similar stuff would happen to them if they decided to go on an adventure. Equally, they know their hold on power would quickly become quite tenuous, if large numbers of Chinese society suffered as a result of severe recession caused by western sanctions.

Me myself personally thinks Putin and his Russia are beyond redemption, but that Intel, IBM et al are too smart to not eventually see the light…and join the Akida revolution.

FYI…my stock price forecast for Christmas remains at least $5.00.
 
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You know you ask brainchip,when are they gunna start to tell us anything reference sales or something measurable,so you can at least try and put a value to the shares and they really don’t give a fat cracker about shareholders,I think they are happy letting the seller if he is a shorter reekhavoc to their company shareprice, it was LDA which was the large seller last time it went to $0.90 and management were delighting it when asked think we are getting screwed over again,the trading patten lately doesn’t indicate a buyer but does a seller they are buying up the cue a couple of cents then dumping into the buyers as they rock up all other trades are just swapping from one hand to the other. I hold a large shareholding and way in front but these NDA’S ARE A JOKE, it’s like trust us until it all goes wrong and they say but we told you nothing,great fan of factfinder and this crew here.
I disagree with your comments Galaxycar.

I believe Brainchip has assembled a fantastic winning team of professionals at the top of their game, who are working hard to make the company great. They have legal obligations necessary to comply with their NDA’s which are a cornerstone of getting a competitive advantage.
There will come a time when this group of EAPs have produced their leading products announcing Akida is inside and other companies will be scrambling to join them.

I consider this current price is a bargain and have bought as much as I can afford and confidently hold for 5 years without getting anxious over price fluctuations. I could have paid my house off twice a month back but have no interest in selling my shares when their is so much upside ahead and interest rates are so low.
For context I bought my first house when interest rates were 18%.

Every trading day you can buy more, hold or if your not happy you can sell!

I hope if you read all the information available you can appreciate the opportunity ahead….or I could be completely wrong and blow a fortune…but I’m sleeping easy with my decision.

Good Luck 😀
 
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Another point for FF list approaching is Nanose reporting date on May 30 2022.

I am hopeful that will be released to market this year with an enormous bang: to include not only covid but some cancer diagnosis.

When that occurs we’ll have to stand back as we won’t know how big it’ll get! (That’s what Adam said to Eve their first time!) 😁
 
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Bravo

If ARM was an arm, BRN would be its biceps💪!
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alwaysgreen

Top 20
I am super hopeful that Megachips relationship with Nintendo will bring us in major revenue.

Nintendo ha sold over 100 million Switches since 2017. About 18 million per year. Say we receive $10 royalties per chip, we are looking @$180 mill per year just from them.

Nintendo likes to do things a little differently to Sony and Microsoft and they have had great success in doing so. I believe AKIDA will be the point of difference for their next gaming platform.
 
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