Been a bit quiet across various platforms lately. It makes me feel uneasy as someone who has religiously read and researched AVZ since 2020. Hopefully this is a good thing.
On the DRC/M23 peace deals, at this stage I think it's fair to say that the DRC is effectively a puppet of China. I don’t expect any substantial movement there without Beijing’s blessing, and certainly not anything that will or could undermine their grasp on the corrupt actors in DRC.
What concerns me a it lately and some musing I've had been Trump’s inward-looking political tendencies. I understand he is more active and engaged in goings ons outside of USA this term, but there is still an air of that inward looking. I wonder if he’s content to secure just enough of the various critical minerals to meet U.S. domestic needs and leave anything else to outside forces if it's in the too hard basket. His tariffs are misguided and he genuinely believes they’ll onshore productivity and make other nations dependent on U.S. trade. I just don't think that will occur when Beijing has been wheeling and dealing with everyone in the wake of those tariffs, and to great success.
I'm worried he and his inner circle don't fully grasp the scale of China’s threat to global markets, especially in the industries of the future. That’s my main worry about the U.S/DRC dynamic. If China continues to operate largely uninhibited, it could distort global markets beyond repair and no amount of tariffs will save the U.S. when that happens. I struggle to see a long-term strategy with Trump and his government. If it's too hard, they just keep on walking is the vibe I'm getting.