AVZ Discussion 2022

[Shire]

I’m also of the opinion that KoBold are boxing out the rumoured two other consortiums, one of which was said to have offered more for AVZ’s interests. I guess Nigel can still consider other offers but it will take a lot of work by a competitor to catch up and put enormous pressure on AVZ at the negotiating table to accept KoBold given its Agreement with DRC. Nigel could wait for the tribunal outcomes and go the legal route but that would of course be a lengthy process with less defined outcomes.

Really don’t like the mention of MoM and Cominierre in the Agreement but given the AVZ/KoBold framework and the ICC/ISCD favouring AVZ, I think KoBold will negotiate the purchase with AVZ. Price still a massive unknown.

I’m less enthused than most with the latest news but:

1. We only have to wait until the end of July to see whether or not there is some serious progress (point 7 from DRC / KoBold Agreement)

2. Carlos is talking about bubbly being imminent

 

[Samus]

1. We only have to wait until the end of July to see whether or not there is some serious progress (point 7 from DRC / KoBold Agreement)

Not really, this simply says DRC will designate a special envoy by 31st July.
This is why I posted above as this is the sort of statement shareholders here always seem to misinterprete and then run with their misinterpretation.
Given DRC's position, corruption and incompetence this might end up being more of a hindrance than a help to our cause.

 

[Xerof]

Not really, this simply says DRC will designate a special envoy by 31st July.
This is why I posted above as this is the sort of statement shareholders here always seem to misinterprete and then run with their misinterpretation.
Given DRC's position, corruption and incompetence this might end up being more of a hindrance than a help to our cause.

Agree with Sam on this interpretation

 

[Penskefile]

They're always trying to shaft us...

We are at the mercy of Kobold. Even a win at the ICC will be futile because the DRC won’t pony up the compensation. Dathcom / AVZ doesn’t exist in their minds and exposing their corruption is just white noise. DRC has trillions of wealth under their feet and US and China want a piece of that action.
Kobold will pay what they determine to be the project’s value and it will be a case of take it or leave it.
At this stage, I just want my money back so I can invest it in more viable and sustainable options.

 

[Jongo]

The M23–DRC peace talks in Doha have made a tentative breakthrough: both sides have agreed in principle to a Declaration of Commitments aimed at ending hostilities in eastern Congo. The declaration is expected to be signed in Doha on Saturday, which is today.

https://www.usnews.com/news/world/articles/2025-07-18/congo-m23-rebels-to-sign-declaration-of-principles-to-end-fighting-sources-say

 

[Shire]

Not really, this simply says DRC will designate a special envoy by 31st July.
This is why I posted above as this is the sort of statement shareholders here always seem to misinterprete and then run with their misinterpretation.
Given DRC's position, corruption and incompetence this might end up being more of a hindrance than a help to our cause.

Ah yep my bad

 

[Exo324]

Not really, this simply says DRC will designate a special envoy by 31st July.
This is why I posted above as this is the sort of statement shareholders here always seem to misinterprete and then run with their misinterpretation.
Given DRC's position, corruption and incompetence this might end up being more of a hindrance than a help to our cause.

Totally understand your pessimism @Samus given our history of rug pulls. But I’m cautiously optimistic of the speed of which this is all going and the pressure applied by Massad Boulos in Doha talks feels to me like the US wants to announce a more concrete minerals deal along with their signing of the US/DRC minerals deal penned for later this month. All dates seem to be rushed to try to coincide with that IMO. And this is the major deal to be headlined - I haven’t really seen any other plays publicised by US companies in advanced talk such as this. I believe the US gov would like to spout this deal along w their minerals deal as a win - ‘largest lithium deposit on earth, and with AI backed by 2 known trump billionaire backers’ - so hopefully a resolution will actually be imminent this time.

Not the best for SH that KOBOLD seem to have laid the inroads with the DRC, possibly blocking a higher bid for our project - seems like they’re posturing for being the only viable solution to AVZs sale. I do wonder if any other suitors have a genuine chance given this recent signing between kobold/drc. But given our limbo for the past 3 years, this seems the closest to a resolution for us.

 

[Jongo]

From Copilot ...

Key Timeline

Date​	Milestone​	Responsible Party​
17 Jul 2025​	Agreement in Principle signed	DRC / KoBold
31 Jul 2025​	KoBold submits final permit applications Valuation panel appointed	KoBold / AVZ
15 Aug 2025​	Valuation panel delivers fair-market report	Independent Panel
31 Aug 2025​	Payment of first cash tranche (40 %)	KoBold (via escrow)
15 Sep 2025​	Issuance of equity tranche (60 % in KoBold shares)	KoBold
?​	Permit-Issuance Bonus paid (5 % of valuation)	Kobold
?​	First-Discovery Bonus paid (10 % of valuation), Upon first resource announcement	Kobold

 

[Jongo]

And more ...

Compensation Mechanism

• Independent Valuation
  • Within two weeks of signing (by 31 July 2025), the parties appoint a three-member independent valuation panel (one each by AVZ, KoBold, and a mutually agreed–upon expert).
  • The panel issues a fair-market valuation report on AVZ’s existing exploration license and sunk costs.
• Payment Structure
  • Cash Component: 40 % of the final valuation payable in USD.
  • Equity Component: 60 % of the valuation paid in newly issued KoBold shares, subject to a lock-up period of 12 months.
  • Escrow & Guarantees: Cash portion held in escrow and released upon DRC permit issuance; share issuance contingent on DRC’s ministerial endorsement.
• Milestone Bonuses
  • Permit-Issuance Bonus: 5 % of valuation if KoBold secures the Manono exploration license by 31 July 2025.
  • First-Discovery Bonus: 10 % of valuation upon public announcement of a ≥1 Mt Li₂O equivalent resource.

 

[Huntian]

Kobold obviously approaching this extremely weary of DRC's history of shitfuckery. Bottom line is they won't own anything with clean title unless they pay AVZ to disappear.... so hold firm Nigel while we have em by the balls.

https://x.com/HookedOnLithium/status/1946336325873086519

 

[Dave Evans]

By asking Copilot a series of questions it has presented a detailed AVZ compensation mechanism and timeline. Whether Copilot is correct or not is another matter, but the essence of the 'compensation mechanism' is:

1. Independent Valuation.
2. Cash Componet.
3. Equity Component.
4. Escrow and Guarantees.
5. Milestone Bonuses.

I have not posted the detail regarding the AVZ compensation mechanism and timeline because I don't know how accurate it is. However, does anybody want to read the Copilot detail fwiw? Of course you could just interrogate Copliot, Grok, etc. and see what answers you get, but the answers depend on the questions that you present.

Did you add in that

1) Roche Dure has a mineral resource including 669Mt of 1.61% Li2O

2. The ICC compensation claim shows we have suffered damages in excess of US$9.4billion

3. The IGF, ICC and ICSID all show the DRC acted corruptly and violated international laws. They even violated their own mining laws

4. We have won all decisions in the international courts to date including orders by the ICC for Cominiere to pay us over €39,000,000 just for the violations they have committed so far

5. Risk has been greatly reduced because of the Minerals For Security and Peace Agreements between the US, DRC and Rwanda

6. KoBold owners are all multi billionaires and have the added availability of funds through the US Defence Budget and a JV partner who will actually build the project, like RIO Tinto

 

[Jongo]

Did you add in that

1) Roche Dure has a mineral resource including 669Mt of 1.61% Li2O

View attachment 88646

2. The ICC compensation claim shows we have suffered damages in excess of US$9.4billion

3. The IGF, ICC and ICSID all show the DRC acted corruptly and violated international laws. They even violated their own mining laws

4. We have won all decisions in the international courts to date including orders by the ICC for Cominiere to pay us over €39,000,000 just for the violations they have committed so far

5. Risk has been greatly reduced because of the Security For Minerals and Peace Agreements between the US, DRC and Rwanda

6. KoBold owners are all multi billionaires and have the added availability of funds through the US Defence Budget and a JV partner who will actually build the project, like RIO Tinto

All very good points that will be considered by the three-member independent valuation panel (one each by AVZ, KoBold, and a mutually agreed–upon expert). I have not bothered asking Copilot to calculate a valuation estimate because it is only the independent valuation panel fair value conclusion that matters. If the Copilot timeline is correct we should see the independent valuation panel report by 31-Jul-2025.

I in effect interrogated Copilot with many questions regarding the source and integrity of the Copilot interpretation of the 'Compensation Mechanism' and 'Key Timeline'. The response is very thorough but cannot be considered as 100% definitive.

 

[Flight996]

Let's see who DRC dredges up as an envoy. Likely Celestin kibeya or some other Cominiere mafia network criminal knowing our luck and the DRC's propensity for idiocy.
View attachment 88643

Mate, I am more concerned about attempts to freeze AVZ out of discussions to sell its Roche Dure tenement to KoBold.

AVZ retains legal control over at least 70% (and probably 75%) of Roche Dure, regardless of what those rat-swallowing DRC pricks, and their shit-eating Chinese masters think, say or do.

Both ICC and ICSID arbitrations are open, and that's AVZ's strength. KoBold will not enter an agreement and commit to buying a multi-billion dollar asset when legal doubt remains over its ownership.

Sooner or later the DRC and KoBold need to speak to AVZ Minerals, rather than to themselves.

 

[Samus]

Mate, I am more concerned about attempts to freeze AVZ out of discussions to sell its Roche Dure tenement to KoBold.

AVZ retains legal control over at least 70% (and probably 75%) of Roche Dure, regardless of what those rat-swallowing DRC pricks, and their shit-eating Chinese masters think, say or do.

Both ICC and ICSID arbitrations are open, and that's AVZ's strength. KoBold will not enter an agreement and commit to buying a multi-billion dollar asset when legal doubt remains over its ownership.

Sooner or later the DRC and KoBold need to speak to AVZ Minerals, rather than themselves.


View attachment 88648

I'd like to think this line of Kobolds statement that you've posted represents what you're talking about.

For political reasons, their own incompetence and mishandling of the whole situation plus their dependence on the Cominiere mafia network/China for power and snacks that DRC simply won't mention AVZ though it is implied that kobold can go ahead with DRC blessing to buy out AVZ.

I'm more concerned about what seems to be the internal power struggle of DRC politics where they promise the president one thing but then do something else because they've been corrupted by Chinese, threatened by other politicians or have their own different agenda and so on. Following this line of reasoning it'll be interesting to see who gets appointed as the envoy on DRC's behalf.

 

[Winenut]

They can shove the equity component of any deal right up their arses.

I want 100% full value cash upfront and I never want to see or hear of the DRC Manono Kobold Cominiere Kibeya Felix The ICC or The ICSID ever fucking again….

 

[Bray]

Surely now this agreement has been signed with president etc that Com & co will have to abide by it, surely they can’t over rule the president

 

[Carlos Danger]

Mate, I am more concerned about attempts to freeze AVZ out of discussions to sell its Roche Dure tenement to KoBold.

AVZ retains legal control over at least 70% (and probably 75%) of Roche Dure, regardless of what those rat-swallowing DRC pricks, and their shit-eating Chinese masters think, say or do.

Both ICC and ICSID arbitrations are open, and that's AVZ's strength. KoBold will not enter an agreement and commit to buying a multi-billion dollar asset when legal doubt remains over its ownership.

Sooner or later the DRC and KoBold need to speak to AVZ Minerals, rather than themselves.


View attachment 88648

I'd like to think this line of Kobolds statement that you've posted represents what you're talking about.
View attachment 88651
For political reasons, their own incompetence and mishandling of the whole situation plus their dependence on the Cominiere mafia network/China for power and snacks that DRC simply won't mention AVZ though it is implied that kobold can go ahead with DRC blessing to buy out AVZ.
View attachment 88652
I'm more concerned about what seems to be the internal power struggle of DRC politics where they promise the president one thing but then do something else because they've been corrupted by Chinese, threatened by other politicians or have their own different agenda and so on. Following this line of reasoning it'll be interesting to see who gets appointed as the envoy on DRC's behalf.

Disputes won't be resolved unless we get paid imo

 

[Carlos Danger]

MMCS ain't getting shit August lmao

 

[Samus]

Disputes won't be resolved unless we get paid imo

What's your rationale around how we possibly arrive at a payout figure with ongoing disputes against dathomir for the 5% zijin/Cominiere 15% and being beholden to CATH for ongoing legal funding and with agreements in place?

 

[Carlos Danger]

What's your rationale around how we possibly arrive at a payout figure with ongoing disputes against dathomir for the 5% zijin/Cominiere 15% and being beholden to CATH for ongoing legal funding and with agreements in place?

Remaining Dathomir 5% is ours. Everyone knows it. Either a deal is made or we wait a few more months until ICC decision for the final part of the payment.

Cominiere FROR 15% won't ever be ours so it doesn't matter

CATH equity deal doesn't kick in unless ML is granted. Business is business. Anyone stupid enough to vote for Huljich, Carrick and Ludbrook deserves to get rat fucked imo