Skar
Regular
This is a great post and I think it does accurately explain why some large holders have been "talking down" the price as they want to exit.
Going the full way through ICSID will be a long term disaster and is highly unlikely to obtain a satisfactory return for anyone in terms of timing or proceeds. What potentially could obtain a better return, is stalling for another couple of years until the lithium price improves. If the lithium price is 2 or 5 times what it is now then it makes it much easier to support and negotiate a higher valuation. The issue is that this is RISKY and no one knows when the price will increase and by how much. AVZ have a potential buyer lined up now which the DRC Government appear to support. The political environment can always change though. If the deal falls through, when will another buyer step up? Will the DRC Government let South Manono continue to sit there waiting for another buyer to step up in several years? The issue is we don't know, as the DRC Government are not trustworthy or reliable. If AVZ end up taking the Kobold deal, will holders end up kicking themselves in years to come? I would say highly likely that the answer is yes, however not taking the deal is also a BIG risk.
If the DRC gov agree to a way forward with Kobold... it sets the precedent on how any future deals need to be done too, in the event Kobold do not present fair value to AVZ shareholders. In such event it also strengthens our position in ICSID hearings.