AVZ Discussion 2022

[Strongman]

Note that The Avenger is speculating and responding to a post from JonoNZ who had used Copilot AI to generate some ideas

View attachment 87484



I suspect The Avenger knows nothing more than we do.....and possibly even less

Yeah Wino i totally agree. Avenger has just put together a nice little thesis in response to JonoNZ post. He has obviously read " The Power Of Positive Thinking " recently and more power to him.
Re his post
1) Forecast $4.08 just his positive stab at it
2) Agree...i think deal is done and is for the Manonon asset not AVZI or GLH shares
3) Agree...no JV just a straight buy out
3a) Agree its a done deal but not until Friday
3b) Agree but not until the money is in our bank
3c) I do agree Zijin should definately have to be part of the compensation payout but no evidence of that yet
3d) Agree ...Kobold will get the southern section only. Where is the boundary...we dont care !

Re $4.08 valuation being based on NPV of DFS completely disagree. NPV shown as US $ 1028 and with 3.52 billion shares we get Aud $ 0.45 c
This was off course based on 4.5 mt operation over 20 years but board was working on 10 mt revised DFS based on substantial Jorc upgrade
As far as Arcadium Lithium strongly disagree. Arcadium had operating mines in Argentina and Australia ( currently still on care and maintenance i think) plus downstream processing assets in US China Japan and UK as well as other green and brown field exploration projects. Bit like comparing the price of a rump steak to an apple.
No problem with Avenger having a stab at it but if we got $4.08 i think i would have a heart attack.

 

[Skar]

This was off course based on 4.5 mt operation over 20 years but board was working on 10 mt revised DFS based on substantial Jorc upgrade
As far as Arcadium Lithium strongly disagree.

4.5 mt/y and we have over 842 mt?

Is it possible to subdivide the tenement and sell it off piece by piece or does it have to go to one buyer? Just seems crazy to be restrained to a 20 year LOM, when it could be scaled up to 40mt with a 20 year LOM... not counting any further drilling or expansion work.

 

[wombat74]

Yeah Wino i totally agree. Avenger has just put together a nice little thesis in response to JonoNZ post. He has obviously read " The Power Of Positive Thinking " recently and more power to him.
Re his post
1) Forecast $4.08 just his positive stab at it
2) Agree...i think deal is done and is for the Manonon asset not AVZI or GLH shares
3) Agree...no JV just a straight buy out
3a) Agree its a done deal but not until Friday
3b) Agree but not until the money is in our bank
3c) I do agree Zijin should definately have to be part of the compensation payout but no evidence of that yet
3d) Agree ...Kobold will get the southern section only. Where is the boundary...we dont care !

Re $4.08 valuation being based on NPV of DFS completely disagree. NPV shown as US $ 1028 and with 3.52 billion shares we get Aud $ 0.45 c
This was off course based on 4.5 mt operation over 20 years but board was working on 10 mt revised DFS based on substantial Jorc upgrade
As far as Arcadium Lithium strongly disagree. Arcadium had operating mines in Argentina and Australia ( currently still on care and maintenance i think) plus downstream processing assets in US China Japan and UK as well as other green and brown field exploration projects. Bit like comparing the price of a rump steak to an apple.
No problem with Avenger having a stab at it but if we got $4.08 i think i would have a heart attack.

3a) "Agree its a done deal but not until Friday."

That's very specific mate . You got a twitchy knee ? I'm suspecting there could be some extra hang time with this suspension . A limbo time before the hammer down so no extension is needed . imo

 

[j.l]

I will do a nudie run across the Harbour Bridge if we get $4+ & nobody needs to see that

Stop talking the price down!!

 

[BRICK]

I will do a nudie run across the Harbour Bridge if we get $4+ & nobody needs to see that

count me in

 

[LzrTr8dr]

I will do a nudie run across the Harbour Bridge if we get $4+ & nobody needs to see that

Maybe that'll be the pivotal swing for Kobold & negotiations

 

[Strongman]

3a) "Agree its a done deal but not until Friday."

That's very specific mate . You got a twitchy knee ? I'm suspecting there could be some extra hang time with this suspension . A limbo time before the hammer down so no extension is needed . imo

Yeah mate definitely the twitchy knee and i borrowed Avengers copy of "The Power Of Positive Thinking"

 

[Winenut]

count me in

To watch or participate??....

and can you warn us in advance if you look like Gina

 

[Strongman]

Just on 9 am in Paris but no change on ICSID website

 

[BRICK]

To watch or participate??....

and can you warn us in advance if you look like Gina

participate of course nut!


I look more like this than gina:

 

[Dazmac66]

Who is Avenger and what is their track record on predictions? Why and how do they speak with such confidence?

Fucked if I know who avenger is!! Just posted the points to promote discussion. Appears to have worked!

 

[Samus]

The following posted by Avenger on the crapper. Interested in opinions from the learned TSE crew. Point 2 raised concerns re cap gains on selling the asset!!

The above is all good reading and the following key takeouts-
1. The buyout range of $1.50 to $3.00 usd with within the forecasted $4.08aud I've previously supplied.
2. They're won't be a relisting here as KoBold offer to buyout is already accepted and simply awaiting final terms. To further clarify, the buyout transaction relates to the sale of DRC Manono Asset sale and not the sale or absorption of AVZ minerals into KoBold.
3. There won't be any JV here either and the AVZ -KoBold framework as the word framework suggests is predicated on a number of outcomes
a. DRC-USA securities agreement - done deal
b. Arbitration suspension between AVZ - DRC - done deal
c. The compensation payout to AVZ minerals for the Northern.portion which will be reliquished to Zinjin - done deal.
d. The agreement between AVZ - KoBold confirming the southern section will be owned by KoBold.
The asset buyout is imminent and IMO $4.08AUD will be close enough to the number based on DFS NPV/IRR and also on a comparative basis to other recently completed Lithium deal particularly the RIO Tinto $6.7b usd takeover

 

[Mute22]

Without any new information, assume the ICSID case is proceeding today?

Super strange no announcement to the contrary, even to delay a few more days.

Thinking Nigel wants to do an all-in-one and final announcement and be done with it.

Hoping it... is.... imminent.

 

[LEFOOL]

Mr Bean is all of us right now tbh..

 

[Samus]

Mr Bean is all of us right now tbh..

 

[wombat74]

Mr Bean is all of us right now tbh..

 

[LEFOOL]

View attachment 87501

 

[BRICK]

Mr Bean is all of us right now tbh..

Between this and RNU AND now WC8 im more like

 

[Remark]

More bullshit from Sir Les?

https://x.com/AlphaNoeta/status/1936510432744747096

 

[Retrobyte]

That's one of Shane's archive posts that he's rehashing from a couple of years ago. He's such a good librarian