AVZ Discussion 2022

[ptlas]

So what happens in one month if they want another postponement?

 

[Carlos Danger]

Deal is done imo

So will AVZ announce the ICSID is postponed ? Or do we figure that out for ourselves ?

I have a feeling that it won't be postponed.

AVZ proposed to DRC to suspend (as committed to in the joint announcement signed by Kobold and AVZ).
Both parties agreed.
Announced by ICSID that pursuant to the parties agreement to suspend, it's suspended until June 23rd, allegedly to facilitate discussions.

to do what Carlos Danger has been waiting three years to do

 

[Cenny]

Everything pointing to a deal finalised in June.

Nice position to be in finally. Big question now is the price.

Really hope it’s at least ath. Still don’t understand what Kobold can actually do with the mine if they purchase the rights. Surely would have to sell to a Rio, Ivanhoe etc to get mining.

 

[LOCKY82]

In some ways would love to take everyone to the cleaners through the courts, but to be totally honest I don't know if my mental health could deal with shenanigans or tactics whereby we don't see money for years and years
Hope it's a fair price that the board are confident it's the best we will get, they've been put through the ringer in fairness. I could do with the money now to get on with plans I've had and put this nightmare behind me. No more African investments for me thanks good luck to us all! Long fucking time coming

 

[Jongo]

Reminder from AVZ's 9-May announcement ...

 

[timb89]

I hear your pain Dave. In a perfect world, we'd all like to see the pricks have their day in court, but seems it's not on the list of things to do in order to get a deal done

You're right to say that Nige initiated the suspension, as he committed to do so in order to facilitate negotiations, in the Joint Statement made by him and Kobold weeks ago, but my point was only on process (not that DRC would say no, of course)

A lot of folks alluding to a deal already being done, perhaps it has been, I don't have my ear close to the ground these days.

I'll prepare some dead rats for 'IT' to swallow shall I?

I don't see what the big deal with suspension is? It's a month? A month for what appears to be the most consequential chance for reparations we've had in years.

We still have the chance to continue action. Which after the peace deal will only strengthen our position. US investors ain't touching Manono with AVZ hanging over it.

 

[BRICK]

I don't see what the big deal with suspension is? It's a month? A month for what appears to be the most consequential chance for reparations we've had in years.

We still have the chance to continue action. Which after the peace deal will only strengthen our position. US investors ain't touching Manono with AVZ hanging over it.

Jesus, where have you been Timmy??

 

[Bonsoir]

Here's a bit of a trip down memory lane and a reminder not to get too excited after all the shit we've been through. The state of play is about as clear as mud imo.

KoBold Seeks Lithium Stake in DRC’s Manono Amid Legal Dispute and Geopolitical Shifts​

May 9, 2025 Constance
KoBold Metals, a U.S.-based mining company backed by prominent investors including Bill Gates and Jeff Bezos, is intensifying efforts to secure rights to the Manono lithium deposit in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC)—a site widely regarded as a potential world-class lithium mine.
A January 2024 estimate suggests Manono holds 669 million tonnes of resources with an average grade of 1.61% lithium.
On May 6, 2025, KoBold and Australia’s AVZ Minerals issued a joint statement titled Developing Manono for Peace and Prosperity, signed by their CEOs, Kurt House and Nigel Ferguson.
The companies announced they had agreed on a commercial framework to expedite development of the Manono deposit.
According to the statement, “this framework provides for AVZ to cede its commercial interests in the Manono lithium deposit to KoBold, at fair value,” enabling KoBold to rapidly mobilize over $1 billion to bring Manono’s lithium to Western markets.
However, the Congolese government maintains that AVZ no longer holds any rights to Manono, asserting those rights were lost when state-owned Cominière terminated its partnership with AVZ in 2022.
AVZ has contested this before the International Court of Arbitration of the International Chamber of Commerce (ICC), where it has already won a ruling ordering Cominière to pay €39.1 million for failing to comply with injunctions. The tribunal has yet to decide on the fundamental ownership dispute.
KoBold’s January proposal aims to resolve the standoff by compensating AVZ in exchange for relinquishing its claims to Manono. The company plans to develop the southern section of the deposit, while the northern portion remains under the control of Chinese group Zijin Mining.
Manono Lithium SAS—a joint venture 61% owned by Zijin (via Jinxiang Lithium) and 39% by Cominière—was granted an operating permit in September 2024. It aims to begin lithium production in the first quarter of 2026.
An Appeal for Peace and Economic Growth
So far, the Congolese government has not officially responded to KoBold’s proposal. The May 6 statement hints at a lack of approval, noting that AVZ has committed to propose a temporary suspension of arbitration proceedings at the International Centre for Settlement of Investment Disputes (ICSID) to allow space for negotiations.
KoBold and AVZ appear to be leveraging the current improvement in U.S.-DRC relations. The statement emphasizes cooperation with all stakeholders, including the U.S. and Congolese governments and AVZ’s current development partner.
Framing their offer as a contribution to “peace and prosperity,” the companies promise thousands of well-paying Congolese jobs over several decades.
This diplomatic and commercial initiative comes as Kinshasa and Washington deepen their engagement.
Recently, the DRC proposed a mining agreement to the Trump administration in exchange for support in resolving the conflict in Eastern Congo.
Since then, mining has featured prominently in bilateral discussions, with Washington playing an active role in mediation efforts.
“A lasting peace in the eastern Democratic Republic of Congo will open the door to greater U.S. and Western investment, creating an ecosystem conducive to responsible and reliable critical mineral supply chains,” said U.S.
Secretary of State Marco Rubio on April 25, 2025, during the signing of a declaration of principles for a peace agreement between the DRC and Rwanda—considered a key supporter of the M23 rebellion.

KoBold Seeks Lithium Stake in DRC’s Manono Amid Legal Dispute and Geopolitical Shifts - Copperbelt Katanga Mining

KoBold Metals, a U.S.-based mining company backed by prominent investors including Bill Gates and Jeff Bezos, is intensifying efforts to secure rights to the

copperbeltkatangamining.com

“However, the Congolese government maintains that AVZ no longer holds any rights to Manono, asserting those rights were lost when state-owned Cominière terminated its partnership with AVZ in 2022.”

Congolese Government, dumber than dumb corrupt liars, expose the scum to the world.

 

[Flight996]

You are all right, totally right.

We have been fucked over by the DRC, the Chinese, our own DRC lawyers and even the Australian government for almost three years, but this is now the end-game.

We have the DRC on the ropes, a willing buyer (KoBold), DLA Piper in our corner, potentially other suitors running the numbers, the Trump administration bankrolling the bigger regional economic and security initiatives, and CATH funding a continuance of ICSID arbitrations if required. We are in a good position.

Think Dan Ackroid (Blues Bros, 1980) who said "It's 106 miles to Chicago, we got a full tank of gas, half a pack of cigarettes, it's dark... and we're wearing sunglasses". Well, that's us.

Buckle up and enjoy the ride.

Cheers
F

 

[Charbella]

I believe it’s essentially done, we’re just waiting for the formalities, namely the peace deal to be signed and the acquisition of the world’s largest hard rock lithium mine to be announced as a flagship win for critical minerals.

When it comes to price, it’s important to remember that our largest shareholders are the Chinese. Nigel needs their sign-off to get this over the line. They’ve lost the mine, the supply chain, and arguably face. The only thing that could bring them to the table now is the right price. Otherwise, what incentive would they have to agree?

 

[oxxa23]

I believe it’s essentially done, we’re just waiting for the formalities, namely the peace deal to be signed and the acquisition of the world’s largest hard rock lithium mine to be announced as a flagship win for critical minerals.

When it comes to price, it’s important to remember that our largest shareholders are the Chinese. Nigel needs their sign-off to get this over the line. They’ve lost the mine, the supply chain, and arguably face. The only thing that could bring them to the table now is the right price. Otherwise, what incentive would they have to agree?

it's not confirmed that we shareholders have to agree to anything... we may not get a vote... but, i hope the price is also right...

 

[Charbella]

it's not confirmed that we shareholders have to agree to anything... we may not get a vote... but, i hope the price is also right...

Whether the ordinary shareholders vote or not is ultimately irrelevant. Nigel can’t make this decision alone. He needs the approval of the major shareholders, especially the Chinese, who hold the largest stake.

 

[KentCStrait]

Whether the ordinary shareholders vote or not is ultimately irrelevant. Nigel can’t make this decision alone. He needs the approval of the major shareholders, especially the Chinese, who hold the largest stake.

This is both incorrect and fear mongering. This is not a buyout of the company we hold shares in. An asset the company we hold is being sold. And even then it's not really an asset. What's then done with the proceeds of that sale will likely require a special general meeting and a vote by shareholders but to suggest the Chinese have a say is flat out wrong.

 

[ptlas]

It's interesting how many posts appear when folks are optimistic ( many ) and how few when the mood is down
ATM, they're thick and fast.

Nothing has changed except somebody has probably told NF that they are relatively close to closing this whole sorry saga. Give us another month, we're really, really close.

What has changed is the mood, people believe we've agreed a price etc, etc.
A little like believing in the tooth fairy.
Point is, nobody knows until it happens that it's true / exists. Until then, it's hope, hope that we all share.

How many months will they ask for ICSID postponement? Do you expect KoBold and DRC to act in good faith towards AVZ?
A slightly different point, we have all seen how Putin has stalled Trump. Why will this necessarily be different?

Felix and the rest of his cronies have a primary interest that encompasses staying out of gaol, staying in power and collecting paper bags.
Maybe these aims necessitate dancing to the US tune. Maybe they don't, and the head honchos disappear to Saudi, China or somewhere equally dodgy, but only when they need to. Very few of these corrupt leaders ever see the inside of a court room, let alone a prison.

My simple point is that this has been, for me, an eight year shit show and it it still is.
Nothing is resolved, and until it is; or we get concrete signs that it is, then nothing has changed.
Concrete signs are AVZ, and only AVZ announcements.
I just think that this shit had gone on for so long, that we should not think that we're out of the woods until we can no longer see any trees.
AIMO.

3000 pages.

 

[Randenj]

Don’t know whether you’ve been reading the room but Macron isn’t exactly a huge fan of Orange Boy as you call him and France isn’t that enamoured with the US currently so I doubt that kind of tactic would have played out.

The rest of your post is well reasoned though.

On a minor point, the ICSID is an arm of the World Bank based in NY city. The bank is being targeted by the US Treasury to return to their core mandate after straying into climate and DEI bs. So the White House definitely has their attention right now lol.

Otherwise your synopsis is entirely plausible.

I wasn't so much of thinking of Macron, but more Paris as the place where ICSID case is to be heard (at least that was my understanding, given I remember reading that the case was to be heard in French). And with the World Bank based in NY and being in the crossfire by the US Treasury, I would say that just adds further pressure to a desire to see a correct outcome.

I was more just thinking that someoone's talked to someone in charge of scheduling somewhere in the admin of ICSID to make sure the right dates all line up.

If at the end of the day if I've read too much into the tealeaves then so be it. Like many on here, I've been living this thing way too closely every day for the past 7 years since I first started investing in AVZ. If this is the endgame, then I'll be glad to see the end of it.

I'm just of the opinion that Nigel and the BOD would be very unlikely to agree to going ahead with the suspension (see May 6 document re the suspension, Clause 7; it's just a proposal, not an agreement) so close to starting the ICSID process unless there was a deal they were happy with and were just waiting for the final pieces out of their control to fall into place (eg. regional peace deal). That's why after seeing that the suspension is in place till the week after the peace deal signing is planned, it lead me to the opinion that it's all over bar the final signatures, and that they have managed to get the best price possible as well, whatever that may be (and it is being kept under very close wraps, most likely with NDAs etc). Remember, Rio's purchase of Arcadium was out of the blue, especially with the price, so no matter how much we might like to wish for whispers, I have no doubt it is a closely guarded secret. Having the threat of ICSID continuation is just there to make sure it all goes through - hopefully.

May the doors from financial purgatory be opened soon. We will all know in a month........

 

[Cumquat Cap]

Whether the ordinary shareholders vote or not is ultimately irrelevant. Nigel can’t make this decision alone. He needs the approval of the major shareholders, especially the Chinese, who hold the largest stake.

Not sure exactly where your allegiances lie but I am sure Nigel will not be consulting corrupt Chinese entities before agreeing to a sale. Levers to avoid a vote in the first place as large Chinese holders would vote down a $5 sale price. Hopefully a strong price tabled that’s accepted by board only

 

[Scoota30]

** SPECULATION **

I have tried to stay healthily skeptical over the last few months as to not jump the gun but I had some pineapple juice this morning which caused an out of body experience so now I'm fully on the "deal is done" bandwagon

• Kobold & AVZ non binding letter to rapidly progress and agreement
• ICSID now pushed to the week after the peace deal
• Zijin (manono lithium) posting that mining development and operations to begin from July 1st.... 1 week after ICSID starts date
• To get a deal done this quickly, China will have to get some piece of the pie

I can't see how after the peace deal, there will be a separate deal for us, 1 week won't allow it and we'd have to push the ICSID out again. IMO it's packaged up with a big bow tie as part of the peace deal, giving Trump a free reign to announce to the world "we will develop the largest lithium mine in the world". If the DRC pull out now, it will look BAD for the US, so our ICSID case is also being used as leverage by the US IMO.

So long as we get a fair price (look at the 2 trillion dollar deals with the middle east recently, I think we will be paid fairly regardless of some news articles stating differently), everyone in this scenario is a winner. We all wanted to use ICSID as leverage and it seems like it worked.

Hats off to Trump, Marco Rubio, Boulos, the rest of the US and dare I say it... Congratulations to Nigel and the team. I think it's time to pay out this bet early because it's already done time to get the bubbly ready.

If I'm wrong, I shall be exiled by TSE in July

 

[Scoota30]

Let me play the devils advocate for you here scoota so you can remain as a valued member of TSE without any shame if things don't go the way you're thinking.

People keep claiming a deal is done without any evidence whatsoever to show for it.
It's difficult to buy in to this mentality as an AVZ investor who's been put through the wringer for years. We've had many high hopes over a number of years and none of them has eventuated to anything.
Kobold put out an opportunistic statement which has been down played and barely seems to be backed by our BOD who are beholden to (CCP) CATH. The chinese entity (CCP) has already stolen half of our deposit and now probably have us by the balls.
DRC government haven't responded as far as we know and they've never honoured anything they've said to AVZ other than to revoke our tenement illegally. We've got a 1 month delay to ICSID proceedings with the specifics unknown.
It seems foolish to settle in to a state of contentment with the scant evidence we've got before us. Plus given any of this actually transpires to some conclusion we still need to see the price.
It's an ongoing shitshow with zero word from the BOD to say otherwise.
I remain hopeful as an investor but we can only go by the facts, not heresay not bullshit and not hopium.
Pinning any hopes on trump announcing our deal with fanfare seems like a weird whimsical fantasy and linking the plight of AVZ with the peace process for Rwanda and DRC a bit of a stretch. Imo.

I'll be fucking extatic to be proven wrong though, believe me! I'd probably piss my pants with laughter if trump said that and become one of his fans.

Devil's advocate noted, I don't make my call lightly though. Regardless of all the shitshow and corruption that's happened, every single one of us have a price and would be happy to walk away and be done with it so long as the price is right - which is what I think has happened. Nigel has been in the US on and off for months now and he wants to see the backend of this as much as we do.

My call still holds, I'll be enjoying the next 4 weeks mentally with a positive attitude but am prepared in the event that I'm wrong.

 

[Mute22]

I don't see what the big deal with suspension is? It's a month? A month for what appears to be the most consequential chance for reparations we've had in years.

We still have the chance to continue action. Which after the peace deal will only strengthen our position. US investors ain't touching Manono with AVZ hanging over it.

reparation
/ˌrɛpəˈreɪʃn/
noun
the action of making amends for a wrong one has done, by providing payment or other assistance to those who have been wronged

I honestly don’t believe we’ll ever see true reparations or meaningful compensation for the three years of harm we’ve endured. At best, we might receive a fair return based on the in-ground value of a resource we rightfully own.

But let’s be real. that won’t come close to addressing the intense personal and financial impact this has had on all of us and out families. I won’t dive too deep into personal details, but I’ve run the numbers. The added interest costs, settling for a subpar housing situation (which now means paying stamp duty again just to upgrade if we get enough out of this), missed business opportunities, even putting off starting a family - the emotional toll has been massive.

For me, genuine reparations would require at least 2-3x our all-time high. That’s the level of restitution it would take to even begin feeling like justice has been served.

Anything less is just a return on investment but I doubt we will ever see true reparations for harm done.

 

[PhatCatz]

5 bucks minimum.