AVZ Charts

Bin59

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If positive news, my guess is shorters will briefly push SP down on open then lose control and we finish up, so …

 
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BEISHA

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Hi All

The week that was......

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DOW WEEKLY chart is coming to an interesting juncture, two weeks ago a FULL ABC correction was formed which culminated in a nice push off from minor resistance at 30620, then had a good follow up week, with an engulfing green candle ( with good volume ), which is a bullish signal that the bottom might be in ( sub wave 1 up ).

However, this week ( yellow arrow ), we are potentially witnessing the sign of another down turn ( double top ), so two questions remain, was the last two weeks a BULL TRAP scenario , with an extended ABC correction on the cards, or are we looking at sub wave 2 down , with sub wave 3 to follow, indicating the bottom is in ?

Sub wave 2 down, normally attract 50/61 fib before reversing, but can go much lower as per EW rules, so the answer to those questions is still up in the air, what is almost certain, is that next week will be another tree shake, with another 1000pt drop on the cards as a minimum.

Remember, wave 4 down ( white ) normally attracts a minimum of 38 fib retraction, which would be 29386, which is potentially still a 10% drop from current levels..........;)

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Global X has had 3 green weeks in a row ( blue bubble ), you will notice that sub wave 4 down has hit the 38 fib ( 66.239 ) with a full ABC correction and now rising, is this a BULL TRAP too ?

Lets have a look at the DAILY chart.

1654322659537.png

Alot of green flags indicate to me that the SWING UP is definitely on here , according to my count, sub wave 5 up is on and is not complete, nice higher highs / lows, all the EMA moving averages is UP ( 5/30) , the 20sma is rising , the upper bollie band is rising plus the RSI 14 is above 50..........BULLISH.

Remember, a confirmed swing is when 75 resistance is broken , so a break of the 61fib to the upside would be telling !!

All in all, by the time AVZ resumes trading on the 1/7/22 ( crossed fingers ), we could have the DOW and GLOBAL X back on a BULL run, which would be very timely, all this coinciding with the " SELL IN MAY AND GO AWAY " scenario.....;)

Has AVZ dodged a bullet by remaining in a suspended TH ?

You betcha, but only if it has good news on its resumption !!

IMO
 
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BEISHA

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Hi All

The week that was...............

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Well, i tipped a big tree shake for this week from my previous post ( 1000pts or more ), unfortunately , that tree shake turned to almost uprooting the tree trunk from the ground lol.......... with a whopping 1700pt drop...:eek::mad:

I mentioned last week that situations are coming to an interesting juncture, whereby the SP could do one of two things, minor sub wave 2 down ( yellow arrow ) , with minor sub wave 3 up to follow, or an extended ABC correction..........we have reached the nexus point right here and now.

For sub wave 3 up to occur, it must push up from the minor support it currently sits at 31392......failure to do so will result in a bit more pain, that said, not much more pain IMO, been saying all along that sub wave 4 down attracts the 38 fib mostly ( 29785 ) and doesnt enter sub wave 1 up territory, thats only 1200 pts away and enters a pretty strong support zone too, worst case, it hits the bottom of the support zone at 28675.

RSI 14 at 36 is close to over sold too, last week it bounced off that brown line 29, will it do it again ?

1654942818723.png


Global X by contrast lost only 2 pts for the week, mainly due to sub wave 4 down being enacted which has found nice support where it currently lies, sub wave 5 up to follow which should surpass that strong resistance zone outlined in red.

Could go as high as 84, before back testing the top of the resistance zone.......if i am reading the tea leaves correctly.

RSI 14 is perfectly placed, just above 50, needs to hold there.

Time will tell, but if it happens that way, then sentiment will improve for all lithium participants.

Next week will reveal all.

robin hood image.gif

imo
 
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BEISHA

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Hi All

The week that was.......

1655536201517.png

DOW lost 1200+ pts for the week and has now hit the 38 fib ( 29738 ) level, a popular reversal zone for sub wave 4 down as mentioned many times, RSI 14 is now double bottom OVER SOLD, will it drop further to the red bubble 17 level ?

Not sure, lets look at the DAILY chart.

1655536660109.png

Yellow arrow pointing to a DOJI and the RSI 14 is flattening at 29, you can also see that in the past (LHS) , 29 is the base in which it rises, in fact if i scrolled further back ( i wont, DYOR ) , 29 is the consistent trigger for a reversal.

So positives signs we have seen the low, but needs confirmation.

1655537382152.png


Mean while, GLOBAL X is primed to break that strong resistance zone highlighted in red , i chose to use the DAILY chart to illustrate the higher highs / lows, with minor sub wave 5 up primed for take off with the yellow arrow pointing to Heiken Ashi candles going green and almost breaking out from the previous long red candle.........BULLISH

RSI 14 is perfectly placed just above 50 and primed to go alot higher.

Nice volume coming thru too.

Relevant lithium players should get a good green start to next week...........except AVZ of course.

imo
 
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BEISHA

Top 20
Hi All

The week that was........

Considering that AVZ is still in a TH, MACRO charts are probably not that relevant, altho it does give you a guide of sentiment when AVZ finally gets out of voluntary suspension.

1656230740412.png

Yellow arrow pointing to a very positive week for the DOW with a 1400pt gain after hitting the 38 fib , a typical retrace for sub wave 4 down.

What we are looking for from here is a development of higher lows / highs, currently SP is sitting just under some minor resistance, we may see a back test, if so, then i dont want to see that bullish engulfing candle get swamped like the previous one, or we could see that support zone get severely tested.

Ideally, would like to see a retrace no more than half the candle, to create a bull flag, then push up from there to create the first sequence of higher lows / highs.

1656292965878.png


The Global X chart is looking very bullish, this is how i want to see the DOW chart to develop like, with higher highs / lows and the RSI 14 indicator getting above 50, all the emas rising too.

1656293738832.png

The all ordinaries chart is a virtual replica to the Dow chart ( would that surprise anyone ? ) with sub wave 4 down hitting the 38 fib and rising, RSI 14 coming off its low of 29.

So in conclusion, if AVZ was to have sorted out its issues and opened for trade on the 1/7/22, then it would have a fairly stable, if not slightly bullish sentiment behind them.

imo
 
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blu

Regular
Hey @ptlas thanks for kind words. Obviously not much action on the TA front with AVZ lately :) but thought would have a look at support/resist/trends on different timeframes to get a feel for potential damage to SP ... have mentally/emotionally prepared for bucket loads of fuckery on the forums and SP once we come out of suspension.

Monthly
Support at mid/low 60's at trend line, and at high 30's (37c previous ath)

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On the weekly, same as monthly but also supported at mid 60's by trendline and lows in Jan '22 and 50 week moving average if that is even a thing!

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and Daily, support at mid to high 60's as above, with added support at 200 MA

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So if I was a betting man, obviously I am as my portfolio consists solely of AVZ and EXR :), then I'd say that on trading resumption there is pretty reasonable support in low to mid 60's, followed by support at previous ATH of 37c. My gut says the low 60's will be tested once we come out of suspension, even If the announcement(s) are supportive of AVZ going mining.

The gut also says Nigel et al will deliver for shareholders, as they always have, although never ever on time.

Genuine sympathy for those doing it tough because of AVZ's suspension, in a sense I've been there and it has real world, real people, impacts. There was a time when AVZ was languishing in the 4-6c range, when my family really needed cash, but I refused to sell because AVZ represents, to me, a once in a lifetime chance for massive reward for limited risk. Thankfully my wife was initially angry and disappointed, yet supportive in the end 🤨
 

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Xerof

Biding my Time 1971
Some may recall I postulated a bearish butterfly formation was forming (SP around 82/3 at the time, with a target of 1.38 to 1.65, before completing the formation and reversing)

I got the usual wishy-washy pooh poohing from some quarters who thought it was wrong when it had an intermediate small retrace on the right butterfly wing (quite normal)

It reversed at 1.375

I think it was our mate Flashprick who wanted me to write him a 10k word explanation of harmonics (request denied) but he asked what the reversal target was and I said 64. (I have to admit, I wasn't of a mind to believe my own observation, although I did have a sell order a half tick above the eventual high - Max says "Chief, missed it by that much"

ANYWAY, long story short - My bleary eyed harmonics align with your target of low 60's @blu YAY

Just saying....sometimes charts can be very powerful tools, but then tools can also be chartists, eg Flash

Screen Shot 2022-09-07 at 9.57.44 AM.png
 
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Xerof

Biding my Time 1971
Oh shit, it could be forming a BULLISH butterfly formation off the 1.375 top - YAY
 
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ptlas

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220916 DJI-Weekly.png


A few have posted positive related macro charts here.

I remain very bearish.

Where to start?

Ukraine and potential nuclear war.

Food shortages.

Supply chain issues.

China and all their shit.

House prices already falling.

Climate change -too late to stop catastrophe?

Liverpool FC playing crap.

Inflation. imo you ain't seen nothing yet.
In 6 months IF scheisser impacts the air circulator where will jobs go?

Things can change very quickly.

Take a look at these DOW charts. Could be any major index.
17% ongoing fall from the peak.
Seven month weekly downtrend. White arrow
A managed fall?

Ironically, I think the above will have a negligible negative affect on the lithium thematic.
Perhaps no effect whatsoever as the world rushes to renewables



220916 DJI-Daily.png
 
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BEISHA

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View attachment 16795

A few have posted positive related macro charts here.

I remain very bearish.

Where to start?

Ukraine and potential nuclear war.

Food shortages.

Supply chain issues.

China and all their shit.

House prices already falling.

Climate change -too late to stop catastrophe?

Liverpool FC playing crap.

Inflation. imo you ain't seen nothing yet.
In 6 months IF scheisser impacts the air circulator where will jobs go?

Things can change very quickly.

Take a look at these DOW charts. Could be any major index.
17% ongoing fall from the peak.
Seven month weekly downtrend. White arrow
A managed fall?

Ironically, I think the above will have a negligible negative affect on the lithium thematic.
Perhaps no effect whatsoever as the world rushes to renewables



View attachment 16794

1664073895680.png


Getting to a very interesting point of time in the DOW.....

I thought that sub wave 4 down ( ABC ) was completed, but it appears to me now that it was only B playing out, do we have a double bottom on our hands thus respecting the rule of sub wave 4 down doesnt enter the height of sub wave 1 up ?

Or does C drop down further to the 50 fib or less ?

RSI 14 on the weekly isnt over sold, could it go beyond over sold to the level it went once COVID was realised ?

Dont like the above average volume going on ........:unsure:

Inflation, higher interest rates, potential recession doing the damage.

1664074751067.png


Where will the bottom be for the GLOBAL X ?

The one positive for AVZ being suspended is they havnt had to endure the MACRO pain, but then again,

1664075081064.png

PLS havnt suffered too badly have they ?

I think the run is over now..............but hey, that tends to happen when you have gone on a 150% ride.......;)


AVZ could of been having a similar run if all our ducks were in order.........;)


Things that make you go.......................hmmmmm.

are-you-kidding-me-robin-hood.gif


imo
 
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