AVZ Charts

[ptlas]

Hi y'all,
Well didn't think I'd become more PO with the crapper, but I'm really over the flash psycho' on the AVZ Chart thread-and he hasn't even had a go at me. YET.
Just sick of the demeaning tone.

Have got out of the habit with AVZ charts for that reason, so hopefully will get my mojo back.

Please help me out here, post in the knowledge that this thread is to help spread knowledge and info'
Oh and maybe have a bit of a larf too.

Enjoy.

 

[ptlas]

WEEKLY:
Continues on it's upward trend. The blue candles are neutral, green buy/hold, red sell.
Not a lot of green on the right but trend remains strongly up so that 1 or 2 red candles wouldn't really spook me.

No divergences - which is what I always look for- on the other indicators.

DAILY:

Holding pattern, awaiting news so predictably boring, the usual games aside.

Mix of R,G and blue on the right= essentially flat
Uptrend just holding so EMAs close.
Don't really like flirting with the 50 EMA (yellow) but its still reasonably steep.

Alex Elder once said that a stock that doesn't want to go down, probably wants to go up.

Overall, pretty bullish based on the weekly.

Need to watch the volume

 

[Remark]

Love your work Ptlas. Volume is king, nice quote from Alex Elder BTW, so true.

 

[blu]

Thread 'AVZ Charts' https://thestockexchange.com.au/threads/avz-charts.4928/

@zeeb0t can you please delete the thread I started, happy to post here

Weekly chart, bounded by support at 64.5c and resistance of the current down trend and ATH at 99.5c
I reckon we'll be in 90's next week and on the way to ATH's within a couple of weeks. Like the look of that last candle.

 

[Pokok]

Love your work Ptlas. Volume is king, nice quote from Alex Elder BTW, so true.

I came over to have a look at sensible conversation

 

[blu]

Steady as she goes boys and girls, keep that ship heading N by NE !!!

With rumours of Nigel heading to or being in the DRC now would be a good spot to jump in with pretty clear IMO lines of support, and a bucket load of blue skies and seas ahead.

 

[ptlas]

Volume dropped to 22m today, slightly below average.

I suspect the continued relatively high volume, 50x relative to a couple of years ago, reflects continues increased interest and thus the better opportunities for pros and algos to scalp pips.

Easy to do sell high-buy low whilst everyone is dithering about the expected FA.

So nothing really happened, a few retail lost a little.

Todays volume as mentioned resulting in a negligible 1c fall.

Little to note about the candles, but indicators continue to trend slightly upwards.

Holding pattern waiting for news whilst being played with a little.

With Ukraine and tetchiness of holders/traders, there may be a lot of volatility if ML is delayed further.

Watch the volume.

 

[ptlas]

Long gone would appear to be the crazy gains of late last year. The market can turn quickly for all sorts of reasons.
In BOTH directions.

DAILY:

Some potential weakness exploded along with the rest of the world stock markets.

Price dropped through the 3 EMAs and closed near it's low just below support. The two shorter EMAs have turned down.

I'd expect a back test but next stop would be the January low around 66c with next support at 56c which corresponds with my (white hashed) standard deviation channel.

Still in daily uptrend by the skin of it's teeth. May change tomorrow.

Same chart with other indicators.

Could discuss this to death, but I find it difficult to discern any real pattern particularly with the overwhelming macro.

Would just add that volume was low, peeps aren't panicking.

Medium term AVZ will be fine, for traders there are better day trading opportunities

 

[ptlas]

AWOL, Mea culpa.

Had a lot on and quite frankly saw little that was not macro related.

However,

Weekly: always begin with longest timeframe if looking at more than one.

A red week as per the standard price chart (bottom).

No negative red candles in 9+ months in the upper impulse chart.
Price touched, then moved through 13 EMA, closing above it.
This is often good buying with the target at the upper standard deviation (not shown) of $1.13, a mathematical model based on average movements and not specific to AVZ.

As AVZ is still in an uptrend any divergences would be negative/bearish.
These are absent, but it must be noted that all indicators turned down as per the red week.

Daily:

Daily- with indicators

EMAs crossed confirming a daily downtrend.

Today's doji touched support at 72.5 then closed above. This area is proving quite robust over the last week.

As we're in a DT, if support is breached then short-term target is 66c then 56c.

I only use oblique support/resistance in the absence of horizontal as I think they're slightly less valid.
Horiz. are based more on previous purchases/sales and not a projection of a specific point
I have to acknowledge oblique because quite simply other traders use them. Hence they do have validity-just slightly less imho.

Daily appears a little range bound between sup. & resis. but most definitely in a DT.

So, not unusually, we have conflicting daily and weekly charts- neither particularly strong.

A rather long-winded way of confirming a holding pattern, but it's sometimes good to go through the process and not just skim the charts.

Hope it helps.

 

[Samus]

AWOL, Mea culpa.

Had a lot on and quite frankly saw little that was not macro related.

However,

Weekly: always begin with longest timeframe if looking at more than one.



View attachment 1817

A red week as per the standard price chart (bottom).

No negative red candles in 9+ months in the upper impulse chart.
Price touched, then moved through 13 EMA, closing above it.
This is often good buying with the target at the upper standard deviation (not shown) of $1.13, a mathematical model based on average movements and not specific to AVZ.

As AVZ is still in an uptrend any divergences would be negative/bearish.
These are absent, but it must be noted that all indicators turned down as per the red week.

Daily:


View attachment 1818


Daily- with indicators

View attachment 1820



EMAs crossed confirming a daily downtrend.

Today's doji touched support at 72.5 then closed above. This area is proving quite robust over the last week.

As we're in a DT, if support is breached then short-term target is 66c then 56c.

I only use oblique support/resistance in the absence of horizontal as I think they're slightly less valid.
Horiz. are based more on previous purchases/sales and not a projection of a specific point
I have to acknowledge oblique because quite simply other traders use them. Hence they do have validity-just slightly less imho.

Daily appears a little range bound between sup. & resis. but most definitely in a DT.

So, not unusually, we have conflicting daily and weekly charts- neither particularly strong.

A rather long-winded way of confirming a holding pattern, but it's sometimes good to go through the process and not just skim the charts.

Hope it helps.

I don't know much about charts but it's quite clear above that the last few weeks have become erratic in line with broader market sentiment. Clearly down to the macro which we can only hope will improve. Trend line for the last 6 months plus still looks good.
The next month might be testing if ML still isn't secured. Hoping for limited disruption due to rate hikes but mainly for peace

 

[ptlas]

Hi,

DAILY:

Gap up this morning. Most gaps close particularly when they're recent and close.
Not something to fear as the chart masters could tidy it up in the blink of an eye during auction or early/late on a quiet day.

If you're in this for the FA the gap may well present an opportunity for a cheap top up.


DAILY with indicators:

Green buy/hold candles are beginning to predominate on the right side.
All indicators ticking up.
Closed in the top 25% of the candle on another day of slightly increased volume.

As I mentioned last week, the weekly has remained a buy for 10 months, but the daily is rapidly turning into a buy.

The things I've been mentioning like increased volume and up-ticking indicators along with the FA and NF visiting the Royal Palace today are telling me people are beginning to get set for the big bang.

PS generally only intend to post weekly on weekends unless this goes off with ML etc.

Hope it helps

 

[BEISHA]

Subwave 3 up hit the 1.61 85c and now it appears to be looking to form a mild retrace of sub wave 4 down to challenge 80 support which was resistance until today.......

RSI 14 looks peaked

This according to the 30m chart.

imo

 

[ptlas]

View attachment 2014
Subwave 3 up hit the 1.61 85c and now it appears to be looking to form a mild retrace of sub wave 4 down to challenge 80 support which was resistance until today.......

RSI 14 looks peaked

This according to the 30m chart.

imo

Test support and close the gap

 

[ptlas]

Hi all,

Friday: Gap up and debatable indecision doji (last blue candle) with price drifting sideways.

Since,

Monday: Gap up (closed) finishing top 50% CS

Tuesday: Gap up through resistance, not closed. finished top 25% CS

Wednesday: Gap down then push through next resistance closing just below resis. following a deliberate push down around close.

Thursday/today: Gap up again not closed, bounced off resistance. closed top 35%

That is the most negative thing I can find about this week.

However, AVZ is now flirting with ATH, nothing new there, on 5 consecutive green CS.

Weekly not shown: HUGE green CS

Daily with indicators:

All three ticking upwards (hashed arrows).

None particularly high with RSI obviously below 70

Note MACD-L still low but positive and rising. Angle is around 45 degrees and this situation has been apparent in previous runs (Oct & Jan)

Volume is slowly increasing and today was about double that of the last attempted move a month ago.

So now we're approaching ATH and $1. Big resistance.

The obvious question is about ML and ASX 200 inclusion being responsible or just another pump.

I lean to the former-too MUCH volume, with this week's looking to be the largest in 3 months.

The gaps are tiny, but they are there and people play with them.

VERY bullish.

 

[blu]

Just to put these daily fluctuations in perspective, nothing to worry about IMO.
I see support at 79.5c, and need to keep next low above the last or 70.0c to maintain the uptrend.

 

[blu]

Didn't take long to test that support @ 79.5c, long term weekly still looking healthy

 

[blu]

Huge volume in the US

 

[ptlas]

Huge volume in the US

View attachment 2455

Weird stuff going on on the DAX last night, including what one HC poster called the "Putin spike".

Stock markets appear very volatile intraday- the big boys are doing well

Three charts, all from COB yesterday:

Weekly remains strong, still haven't seen a red sell candle for 10 months.

Remains in an uptrend of !8 months duration which is quite unusual.

Recent pullback barely turned MACD-H red, now back to green and RSI has dropped from 90 to low 60's.

Price ticking up with nice long tail last week.

No divergences. Big resistance around ATH/$1. Probably see a test there this week even if there's no news

Have reduced the number of indicators after being told off by BEISHA. Quite right too mate.

Daily: Back into the uptrend with 13>26>50 ema

The two red candles this week failed to send MACD-H red hence the 'missing right shoulder'

Daily seems to be back in that pattern of yoyoing upwards from the emas and coming back to higher low each time it pulls back.

Have left in the bearish divergences (arrowed) from January to demonstrate just how predictive they can be of a top (or bottom).

Hourly: The least important. I'd just note the dearth of red candles on the right,

The RSI and very green MACD-H reflect a strong finish.

We await the ML. Sure I've said that before

 

[blu]

Liking that last candle, have added the Champagne to the target range

 

[Winenut]

Thanks again to all you chartists that post here.

It's always informative and provides a lot of insight and learning for those who are new to the concepts

The quiet civility and the lack of a certain over the top irrational flaming and bating poster is also noticeable on these threads which makes the experience much better and in my opinion so much fairer for all

The distinct suppression of the SP through shorting is hard to ignore

Can the end of that activity be observed or predicted by the chart or is it just macro linked to the specific closing auction on the 18th and the physical ASX 200 index rebalance?

Any thoughts appreciated

Cheers!