$10m month

Hi all, been a while.

I'm still holding my PNV - simply less data to track and less posts of use on HC to warrant posting very often.

Regulars will know I've given up tracking "months" a while back and moved to quarters.
But I did take time this morning just to run a small check up on this new figure.

As usual, the record month was ABOVE the value projected by my previous monthly model for November ($10.1m v $9.4m)
It also means we reached the $10m month earlier than the old model projected (Nov 24 v Jan 25)

It also again increased the rate of growth of the growth - now 1.44 (not a lot, but still growing faster than previously).

The new projection for FY25 using the monthly model is $121m sales. (the last quarterly data showed FY25 at $120.3m)

Onto that you add BARDA and OTHER to get the FY25 Revenue.

(Note: Been adding under $2.15)

...

Thanks for that.

My guess had been around $115m but possibly up to $120 if things went well so given your regression maybe $125m might be possible if a really good 2H.

I don't think 2.5 yrs of Swami has had much of an impact on the trajectory - seems India has been his main change and it doesn't look like its significant yet.

Lattelarry said:

Thanks for that.

My guess had been around $115m but possibly up to $120 if things went well so given your regression maybe $125m might be possible if a really good 2H.

I don't think 2.5 yrs of Swami has had much of an impact on the trajectory - seems India has been his main change and it doesn't look like its significant yet.

Click to expand...

Looking pretty sure of this value now with still the possibility to outdo it.

Nothing to suggest that things have changed since Swami's appointment. But who knows what will happen in India. Things often are slow to get to a "critical mass" and then boom from that point.

As PNV gets bigger its ability to keep growing growth becomes more of an achievement each time!

Lattelarry said:

Thanks for that.

My guess had been around $115m but possibly up to $120 if things went well so given your regression maybe $125m might be possible if a really good 2H.

I don't think 2.5 yrs of Swami has had much of an impact on the trajectory - seems India has been his main change and it doesn't look like its significant yet.

Click to expand...

Well it's impossible to know but I actually think Swami has made a lot of decisions and laid the strategic groundwork to enter Asia and get the approvals to sell to government hospitals in India. Add to that his influence in getting the BARDA trial completed early and I would suggest the donations/supply to conflict zones that DW was initially reluctant to do. It was likely him that pulled the plug on the poorly conducted DFU trial. I think he has more experience at running this operation that Paul Brennan and critically, the staff like him.

kickit2me said:

Looking pretty sure of this value now with still the possibility to outdo it.

Nothing to suggest that things have changed since Swami's appointment. But who knows what will happen in India. Things often are slow to get to a "critical mass" and then boom from that point.

As PNV gets bigger its ability to keep growing growth becomes more of an achievement each time!

Click to expand...

Well the strategy and ground work for continued drivers of expansion need to be laid. It doesn't happen by itself and it takes time to implement. We get $125m in sales and $10m in BARDA/others then we're well on track even though some others may be disappointed. I think their expectations are simply unrealistic. We get over $200m by FY2027 surely everybody should be happy with that? It's a long way in a relatively short time.

@kickit2me thanks for the update.

whytee said:

Well it's impossible to know but I actually think Swami has made a lot of decisions and laid the strategic groundwork to enter Asia and get the approvals to sell to government hospitals in India. Add to that his influence in getting the BARDA trial completed early and I would suggest the donations/supply to conflict zones that DW was initially reluctant to do. It was likely him that pulled the plug on the poorly conducted DFU trial. I think he has more experience at running this operation that Paul Brennan and critically, the staff like him.

Click to expand...

Yes definitely more experience than Paul Brennan. But wonder if he's used to working at much bigger scale at J&J and without their resources is finding it harder.

The other thing I wonder is if he doesn't make his LTI by EOFY if he will stick around. I'd guess if you don't make the first one then it gets harder to make them after that.