AVZ Discussion 2022

wombat74 said:

After 500 emails asking him what he meant by ,'exciting developments behind the scenes.' Good intentions but might have bitten off more than he wanted to chew .

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Panther22 said:

Who is making the trek to Perth for the AGM? Is it worth going? Will we be able to ask questions and get answers or same as last year?
I don't really feel like spending more time & $$$ for little information and just the 2 resolutions of electing Directors.

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BRICK said:

It looks like a community centre?

No strippers there.

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tonster66 said:

Geo owes a public explanation as he released his shot publicly

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geo_au​

TheCount said:

Voted no to both - haven't done anything and won't be doing anything in the foreseeable future... Why pay for the milk & cookies....
TC.

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Mute22 said:

Fucks sake. Can we not have one piece of good news.

Business opportunities, family health, housing all passing me by with this shit.

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eqtrade said:

If both directors are voted out this year, does that mean 2 vacancies in the board for grab in the following AGM? Would that leave open opportunities for whoever wants to get on board to serve their own interests like what happened last AGM and we had to fight so hard to beat their ambition?

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j.l said:

I hear you bud

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TheCount said:

He had "more freedom to speak" BEFORE he was our supposed "advocate" so those words are bullshit.

All talk and no substance. I'm growing very tired of all those saying they've got "something to say" and fail to follow through.

Yes, I'm talking to you too @geo_au - you owe the forum an update. Even if you create a private conversation with those you know are safe - that's a start.. Well overdue for your "end game news".
TC.

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wombat74 said:

Were we due an annual report today ? Or can they legally leave it until the final bell at the AGM on the 27th Nov . Personally I'd wait and hand it out to share holders as they leave the AGM and post it later with the minutes of the meeting to the rest of us . Lets get to Xmas recess and let the AVZ team have a good break and come back refreshed in Feb 2025 . Totally refreshed . Looking forward to deboss' Xmas recipes and pics of Santa Claus in a mini skirt, fish net stockings and a big set of Hooters .

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• Scenario: With the DRC's diminished capacity to participate in the proceedings, the tribunal may expedite the process. This could lead to a default judgment in favor of AVZ if the DRC fails to adequately defend its position.
• Historical Precedent: Numerous cases, particularly those involving resource-rich nations with fluctuating economic conditions, have seen similar outcomes. For example, in the case of Enrho St Limited v. Republic of Kazakhstan, the tribunal granted a default judgment due to the respondent's failure to participate.

2. Negotiated Settlement​

• Scenario: While less likely, the DRC might seek a negotiated settlement to avoid a costly default judgment. This could involve concessions from the DRC, such as allowing AVZ to proceed with the Manono Lithium Project or providing financial compensation.
• Considerations: AVZ should carefully consider the potential benefits and risks of a negotiated settlement. While it may offer a quicker resolution, it could also result in a less favorable outcome than a default judgment.

3. Political Intervention​

• Scenario: The DRC government may attempt to influence the tribunal's decision through political pressure or diplomatic channels. However, this could backfire and further damage the DRC's international reputation.
• Countermeasures: AVZ could employ diplomatic channels to counteract any political pressure from the DRC. Additionally, it could seek support from international organizations and governments with interests in promoting investment and upholding international law.

4. Financial Implications and Strategic Considerations​

• Financial Gain: A favorable outcome for AVZ could result in significant financial gains, including compensation for lost profits and damages.
• Strategic Positioning: The case could strengthen AVZ's position as a major player in the lithium market, enhancing its reputation and attracting investment.
• Risk Mitigation: While the DRC's financial difficulties present a significant opportunity for AVZ, it is important to remain cautious and mitigate potential risks, such as unforeseen legal challenges or changes in the political landscape.

BRICK said:

It looks like a community centre?

No strippers there.

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Samus said:

What's this fucker talking about then?
View attachment 72631

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Samus said:

What's this fucker talking about then?
View attachment 72631

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Flight996 said:

Unfortunately, the reason for the suspension of the ICSID proceedings in ARB 23/20 is not publicly disclosed.

However, contrary to the post on X.com, the $US20m in escrow was not available for funding arbitrations, and nor could it be used as security for funding because it belongs to Cong until all this mess is sorted.

Cheers
F

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Flight996 said:

AVZ International Pty Ltd. v. Democratic Republic of the Congo (ARB/23/20) - DRC inability to pay

I understand that in the lead-up to ICSID arbitration, the DRC appointed five separate law firms, plus a number of high profile advisors to manage its defenses. Presumably the DRC has similar representation assisting it and Cominiere at ICC arbitration.

This level of support doesn't come cheap, and I wonder if the DRC stiffed them, and they responded by withdrawing services. If so, why am I not surprised.

Regardless of the reasons behind the DRC's inability to continue funding its position, there are potential ramifications for AVZ inc.

I asked both Perplexity and Gemini to summarise the potential ramifications from an AVZ perspective. This a summary of what they had to say:

1. Accelerated Legal Process and Default Judgement

• Scenario: With the DRC's diminished capacity to participate in the proceedings, the tribunal may expedite the process. This could lead to a default judgment in favor of AVZ if the DRC fails to adequately defend its position.
• Historical Precedent: Numerous cases, particularly those involving resource-rich nations with fluctuating economic conditions, have seen similar outcomes. For example, in the case of Enrho St Limited v. Republic of Kazakhstan, the tribunal granted a default judgment due to the respondent's failure to participate.

2. Negotiated Settlement​

• Scenario: While less likely, the DRC might seek a negotiated settlement to avoid a costly default judgment. This could involve concessions from the DRC, such as allowing AVZ to proceed with the Manono Lithium Project or providing financial compensation.
• Considerations: AVZ should carefully consider the potential benefits and risks of a negotiated settlement. While it may offer a quicker resolution, it could also result in a less favorable outcome than a default judgment.

3. Political Intervention​

• Scenario: The DRC government may attempt to influence the tribunal's decision through political pressure or diplomatic channels. However, this could backfire and further damage the DRC's international reputation.
• Countermeasures: AVZ could employ diplomatic channels to counteract any political pressure from the DRC. Additionally, it could seek support from international organizations and governments with interests in promoting investment and upholding international law.

4. Financial Implications and Strategic Considerations​

• Financial Gain: A favorable outcome for AVZ could result in significant financial gains, including compensation for lost profits and damages.
• Strategic Positioning: The case could strengthen AVZ's position as a major player in the lithium market, enhancing its reputation and attracting investment.
• Risk Mitigation: While the DRC's financial difficulties present a significant opportunity for AVZ, it is important to remain cautious and mitigate potential risks, such as unforeseen legal challenges or changes in the political landscape.

Ultimately, the outcome of the case will depend on various factors, including the tribunal's decision, the DRC's ability to secure alternative funding, and any potential political interventions. However, given the current circumstances, AVZ is well-positioned to achieve a favorable outcome and capitalize on the significant potential of the Manono Lithium Project.

There you go...food for thought.

However, I don't agree entirely with their responses, particularly about the likelihood of a negotiated settlement, which I think is the most likely scenario. If the DRC has no money for its defenses; it has no money for compensation. Therefore it may be restoration of PR13359 and the right to mine.

Cheers
F

Edit: This post assumes that the DRC is unable/unwilling to pay ICSID arbitration fees. At this stage the reason for suspension of proceedings is not public, and could indeed be something quite different.

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