AVZ Discussion 2022

[Xerof]

I’ll just put this up, acknowledgement to pow4ade on the crapper

IMO, this is more likely to be much nearer the truth than thinking more litigation funding is the underlying issue

With the looming peace signing ceremony in Washington with its strategic minerals tie-in, the US agenda obviously overlaps our dispute.

So I asked AI what they think is going on with US interests and our new suspension...just for fun:

The US appears to be pushing for a commercial settlement — not a court victory​

AVZ’s suspension aligns with a US strategic objective:

• avoid a large ICSID damages award against the DRC
• avoid a sovereign enforcement battle
• resolve disputes through deals, not legal warfare
• get major critical mineral projects moving
• reduce Chinese dominance

A large ICSID loss could make the DRC unbankable — the US would prefer a clean slate.

AVZ pausing arbitration again suggests the US (or US-aligned parties) may again have encouraged a cooling-off period.

2. AVZ signalling: “We’re open to any Western-backed proposal — not just KoBold”​

By lifting exclusivity:

• AVZ invites multiple bidders
• The US achieves a competitive environment
• CATH (Chinese) is explicitly named as a stakeholder to be managed
• AVZ positions itself as willing to work with the most credible Western counterparty

This greatly strengthens AVZ’s bargaining power.

3. The second suspension strongly suggests that “something is close”​

A pause until February 2026 is:

• long enough for a structured deal to form
• short enough to signal urgency
• consistent with a government-to-government process

If nothing was brewing, AVZ would not risk a second time-out after the DRC ignored the first one.

This time, the difference is:

The push may be coming from outside the DRC.​

Specifically from:

• US financial agencies
• KoBold’s backers
• MSP-aligned institutions
• Parties seeking to fund a settlement structure

The announcement highlights funding discussions, which is code for:

“We are talking to parties who might fund a settlement with the DRC, a buyout of CATH claims, and a viable project structure.”

“We are talking to parties who might fund a settlement with the DRC, a buyout of CATH claims, and a viable project structure.”

4. The failure of KoBold’s proposal is telling​

The language is diplomatic but pointed:

• KoBold has not made an acceptable proposal.
• AVZ is moving on and talking to others.
• The US likely expected KoBold to step up; KoBold hasn’t.

This pushes the US to widen the net of “acceptable partners”.

5. AVZ is preserving maximum leverage (litigation) while signalling willingness to settle (commercially)​

This dual-track strategy is exactly what:

• ICSID tribunals expect
• Western governments prefer
• Negotiating parties need

The suspension does not weaken AVZ’s legal position; it simply slows the process to allow political/economic solutions to form.

BOTTOM LINE: What This Latest Update ReallySuggests​

✔ AVZ believes a serious commercial solution is now possible — likely externally driven (US-aligned).​

✔ AVZ wants time to assemble a funding partner large enough to close the entire dispute — including DRC and CATH.​

✔ The US is pressuring for stability in DRC mining to attract foreign investment — resolving the AVZ dispute is necessary for that.​

✔ A competitive process means AVZ is not tied to KoBold and may attract a different Western counterparty.​

✔ The second arbitration suspension is a sign of imminent negotiations, not weakness.​

✔ If a deal is not reached by February 2026, arbitration resumes — and the DRC faces massive financial risk.​

Final Outlook (Highest Probability Interpretation)​

AVZ’s latest announcement suggests that:

A multi-party, Western-aligned commercial settlement is being actively constructed behind the scenes — likely involving US diplomatic pressure, funding arrangements, and a restructure of Manono ownership. AVZ has paused arbitration to give this geopolitical process time to solidify.

A multi-party, Western-aligned commercial settlement is being actively constructed behind the scenes — likely involving US diplomatic pressure, funding arrangements, and a restructure of Manono ownership. AVZ has paused arbitration to give this geopolitical process time to solidify.

This is the clearest signal in two years that resolution, not perpetual conflict, is now the strategic direction.

 

[obe wan]

I’ll just put this up, acknowledgement to pow4ade on the crapper

IMO, this is more likely to be much nearer the truth than thinking more litigation funding is the underlying issue

With the looming peace signing ceremony in Washington with its strategic minerals tie-in, the US agenda obviously overlaps our dispute.

So I asked AI what they think is going on with US interests and our new suspension...just for fun:

The US appears to be pushing for a commercial settlement — not a court victory​

AVZ’s suspension aligns with a US strategic objective:

• avoid a large ICSID damages award against the DRC
• avoid a sovereign enforcement battle
• resolve disputes through deals, not legal warfare
• get major critical mineral projects moving
• reduce Chinese dominance

A large ICSID loss could make the DRC unbankable — the US would prefer a clean slate.

AVZ pausing arbitration again suggests the US (or US-aligned parties) may again have encouraged a cooling-off period.

2. AVZ signalling: “We’re open to any Western-backed proposal — not just KoBold”​

By lifting exclusivity:

• AVZ invites multiple bidders
• The US achieves a competitive environment
• CATH (Chinese) is explicitly named as a stakeholder to be managed
• AVZ positions itself as willing to work with the most credible Western counterparty

This greatly strengthens AVZ’s bargaining power.

3. The second suspension strongly suggests that “something is close”​

A pause until February 2026 is:

• long enough for a structured deal to form
• short enough to signal urgency
• consistent with a government-to-government process

If nothing was brewing, AVZ would not risk a second time-out after the DRC ignored the first one.

This time, the difference is:

The push may be coming from outside the DRC.​

Specifically from:

• US financial agencies
• KoBold’s backers
• MSP-aligned institutions
• Parties seeking to fund a settlement structure

The announcement highlights funding discussions, which is code for:

“We are talking to parties who might fund a settlement with the DRC, a buyout of CATH claims, and a viable project structure.”

4. The failure of KoBold’s proposal is telling​

The language is diplomatic but pointed:

• KoBold has not made an acceptable proposal.
• AVZ is moving on and talking to others.
• The US likely expected KoBold to step up; KoBold hasn’t.

This pushes the US to widen the net of “acceptable partners”.

5. AVZ is preserving maximum leverage (litigation) while signalling willingness to settle (commercially)​

This dual-track strategy is exactly what:

• ICSID tribunals expect
• Western governments prefer
• Negotiating parties need

The suspension does not weaken AVZ’s legal position; it simply slows the process to allow political/economic solutions to form.

BOTTOM LINE: What This Latest Update ReallySuggests​

✔ AVZ believes a serious commercial solution is now possible — likely externally driven (US-aligned).​

✔ AVZ wants time to assemble a funding partner large enough to close the entire dispute — including DRC and CATH.​

✔ The US is pressuring for stability in DRC mining to attract foreign investment — resolving the AVZ dispute is necessary for that.​

✔ A competitive process means AVZ is not tied to KoBold and may attract a different Western counterparty.​

✔ The second arbitration suspension is a sign of imminent negotiations, not weakness.​

✔ If a deal is not reached by February 2026, arbitration resumes — and the DRC faces massive financial risk.​

Final Outlook (Highest Probability Interpretation)​

AVZ’s latest announcement suggests that:

A multi-party, Western-aligned commercial settlement is being actively constructed behind the scenes — likely involving US diplomatic pressure, funding arrangements, and a restructure of Manono ownership. AVZ has paused arbitration to give this geopolitical process time to solidify.


This is the clearest signal in two years that resolution, not perpetual conflict, is now the strategic direction.

Agreed ; read this and then re reading the announcement from last night is somewhat cleansing

 

[Skar]

https://x.com/PegAndPaydirt/status/1991081126069207346

Spods rising.

 

[Ancient]

At first thought I was a little thrown off by this announcement. Because it can seem like it's saying "We've suspended the court case whilst we sort out further litigation funding"... So I thought about it whilst I slept and have now decided my first impression was wrong.

The Manono project is not AVZ. AVZ is a party to the project.

What does funding really mean here? Funding is about project funding. The DRC government is party to the project and also wont be contributing to any funding. CATH are potentially an indirect party to the project according to the revised TIA, in which AVZ has the option to either self fund capital or have CATH fund it. With the later meaning CATH would loan AVZ the capital required and would be paid back through the project revenue. In the scenario where AVZ were to be funded by a loan from CATH, CATH would have rights over 100% of the offtake.

The conditions of the TIA are as follows:

• the Mining Licence being granted to Dathcom;
• the transfer of certain service entities to GLH;
• the CAPEX Funding Agreement is entered into by CATH and GLH;
• a shareholders agreement in respect of GLH is entered into between AVZ, CATH and GLH;
• a revised offtake agreement is entered into between Dathcom and CATH;
• all regulatory approvals and third-party consents required under all applicable laws (including those of the Democratic Republic of Congo and the People's Republic of China) and contractual arrangements having been obtained;
• no material adverse change having occurred.

Now let's just read the latest announcement again.

The Company is currently in discussions with several parties with respect to funding, who also share the Company’s optimism with respect to the Manono Project and the important role the DRC has to play in balancing global critical mineral supply chains. Whilst AVZ is not bound by any exclusivity obligations with Kobold or any other party, it will continue to pursue a competitive process to select a preferred counterparty in respect of a sale of AVZ's interest in the Manono Project, in co-operation with its obligations to its cornerstone investor.

I am going to have a crack at translating this:
We are currently in discussions with several parties in respects to the sale of AVZ's portion of the project. The other parties recognise the importance of diversifying critical mineral supply chains away from China. I.e., one of these parties has interests in western supply chains, i.e., OEM and/or Government interests.

The next sentence is a bit weird, is it a threat to the western parties to say this is also on the table for Chinese players? Or, are they saying we're assuming that there will be legal obligations to our cornerstone investors (CATH) and these need to be considered in a sale. i.e., the TIA completion is assumed due to expected ML assignment to AVZ from DRC government as part of settlement discussions and therefore any purchaser needs to keep these conditions in mind. Are AVZ trying to encourage pre settlement acquisition which has been theorised about before?

IMO DRC and AVZ have somewhat come to a settlement agreement assuming the offer is right from the party taking over AVZ's portion of the project. The incentives for the DRC government need to be correct... Probably $ for a portion of their project share and a significant funding commitment. The additional consideration is how the negotiation is going with CATH. They want supply, they're going to want to keep as much of that as possible. For them to step aside and let someone else come in to fund the project and take the supply, the price would have to be right or they would need to be out maneuverer through the contracts. I doubt the funding party would only be contributing capital, the acquisition will be about securing western supply, and that will be with the blessing and potential financial backing from US Gov. So many unknowns throughout this...

The summary is that this is a very positive announcement and that they're essentially saying "a resolution is fairly progressed in which we, jointly with the DRC and US Government, can put forward a proposal to candidate purchasers, these purchasers have been presented and are engaged in negations, and now it's a matter of time before the negotiations have progressed to execution".

I easily could be interpreting this all completely wrong.. there's not a great deal to go off tbh

 

[Remark]

That's a great breakdown & summation of what we're up against.

It is such a complex deal that I can understand why it's taking so long for the relevant parties to agree on a settlement.

I think the sticking point will be which way we go, east or west. CATH already have a finger in the pie & the US don't want them anywhere near Manono. There has to be a middle ground.

Thanks for taking the time to post this.

 

[hedrox]

The Saudis just planing to give Donny 1 Trillion $$$ to splash on critical minerals......Plenty of money to counteract any incoming Chinese bid..

 

[BRICK]

View attachment 93182 The Saudis just planing to give Donny 1 Trillion $$$ to splash on critical minerals......Plenty of money to counteract any incoming Chinese bid..

Looks like Donalds family will forever have a pipeline of hotels and projects for the foreseable future in SA

 

[Flight996]

Just FI:

 

[Sangster]

View attachment 93182 The Saudis just planing to give Donny 1 Trillion $$$ to splash on critical minerals......Plenty of money to counteract any incoming Chinese bid..

I guess $1 trillion worth of US investment is the going rate to forget the kidnapping and murder by dismemberment of an inconvenient journalist.

 

[Sangster]

Just FI:

View attachment 93192

Sweet. Maybe they'll find our missing $20,000,000.

 

[Flight996]

Sweet. Maybe they'll find our missing $20,000,000.

I think they will find a lot of peoples' missing $20,000,000

 

[Sangster]

Hear me out before reporting this or shaming me, but do you lot think we could get our old mate formerly of the AFR to write some inconvenient comments about MBS? Could lead to another $1 trillion in the pool for a buyout. Too soon? Or perhaps tolate?

 

[yaseenmeoncebefore]

Some are saying that the "big bag" is in deep shit, lol

 

[Xerof]

Off X

BRUSSELS BLOWS THE WHISTLE ON THE TSHISEKEDI FAMILY'S PLAYTIME (AND IT'S DELICIOUS)

Ah, the irony of history. The Kinshasa regime, which spends its time howling about international conspiracies and sniveling in the skirts of the international community, finds itself today bitten by the hand it has so desperately tried to grasp.
For savvy observers and players in the Congolese reality, this Belgian investigation is a political candy. Here's why, we from the AFC-M23, must watch this spectacle with a sly smile:
1. The myth of the "Rule of Law" in tatters
Félix has hammered our ears with his "rule of law" in reinforced concrete. Now it's cracking—not because of us, but because of the greed of his own clan. It's almost poetic: the champion of the anti-corruption fight sees his own "smala" (wife, brothers, children) treated like common financial delinquents by his "precious Belgian partners."
Belgian justice shows no mercy: it has sniffed out the stench of ill-gotten gains, and it strikes where it hurts. Immunity is for the Boss. For the others, it's the dock of the accused.
2. The fatal mistake: Belgian nationality
What arrogance... They thought the red passport (Belgian) was a shield, a safe-conduct to enjoy Europe. Rookie error. That passport is now their electronic ankle bracelet.
By holding onto their Belgian nationality, they handed the Federal Prosecutor's Office the stick to beat them with. They are answerable in Brussels. They can no longer cry "neocolonialism" when it's their own identity papers that give the judge jurisdiction. It's the hose-holder getting hosed in all its glory.
3. The timing is a delight
While they stir things up in the East trying to demonize us, their home base is crumbling.
Picture the panic at the Palace: every transfer is scrutinized, every trip to Zaventem turns into judicial Russian roulette. They'll have to shell out millions on lawyers instead of lobbying against the AFC-M23.
An enemy distracted by its own judicial survival is an enemy that makes mistakes.
4. The lesson in cynicism
In the end, this investigation validates what we all know: power in Kinshasa isn't a mission, it's a family business. And like any bad business, when you get too greedy and forget to cover your tracks in Europe, you end up getting audited—fiscally or criminally.
The final word (between us)
Let's let them wallow in their lame excuses. They wanted the internationalization of the conflict? They've got the internationalization of their criminal files.
As they say: "When you dine with the devil, you need a long spoon." Apparently, the Tshisekedi family used one that was too short.
Good show.

 

[Hodlandwin69]

I wonder if the USA or China are applying pressure to Belgium to investigate the family

 

[Dazmac66]

Come to think of it old snake head has been very quiet lately.

 

[Winenut]

Off X

BRUSSELS BLOWS THE WHISTLE ON THE TSHISEKEDI FAMILY'S PLAYTIME (AND IT'S DELICIOUS)

Ah, the irony of history. The Kinshasa regime, which spends its time howling about international conspiracies and sniveling in the skirts of the international community, finds itself today bitten by the hand it has so desperately tried to grasp.
For savvy observers and players in the Congolese reality, this Belgian investigation is a political candy. Here's why, we from the AFC-M23, must watch this spectacle with a sly smile:
1. The myth of the "Rule of Law" in tatters
Félix has hammered our ears with his "rule of law" in reinforced concrete. Now it's cracking—not because of us, but because of the greed of his own clan. It's almost poetic: the champion of the anti-corruption fight sees his own "smala" (wife, brothers, children) treated like common financial delinquents by his "precious Belgian partners."
Belgian justice shows no mercy: it has sniffed out the stench of ill-gotten gains, and it strikes where it hurts. Immunity is for the Boss. For the others, it's the dock of the accused.
2. The fatal mistake: Belgian nationality
What arrogance... They thought the red passport (Belgian) was a shield, a safe-conduct to enjoy Europe. Rookie error. That passport is now their electronic ankle bracelet.
By holding onto their Belgian nationality, they handed the Federal Prosecutor's Office the stick to beat them with. They are answerable in Brussels. They can no longer cry "neocolonialism" when it's their own identity papers that give the judge jurisdiction. It's the hose-holder getting hosed in all its glory.
3. The timing is a delight
While they stir things up in the East trying to demonize us, their home base is crumbling.
Picture the panic at the Palace: every transfer is scrutinized, every trip to Zaventem turns into judicial Russian roulette. They'll have to shell out millions on lawyers instead of lobbying against the AFC-M23.
An enemy distracted by its own judicial survival is an enemy that makes mistakes.
4. The lesson in cynicism
In the end, this investigation validates what we all know: power in Kinshasa isn't a mission, it's a family business. And like any bad business, when you get too greedy and forget to cover your tracks in Europe, you end up getting audited—fiscally or criminally.
The final word (between us)
Let's let them wallow in their lame excuses. They wanted the internationalization of the conflict? They've got the internationalization of their criminal files.
As they say: "When you dine with the devil, you need a long spoon." Apparently, the Tshisekedi family used one that was too short.
Good show.

I wonder what all of this might mean for the process, negotiations, ML, peace deals, Kobold etc etc etc

Let alone the political climate in the DRC?

Will it force Fatshi to start doing the right thing??

Who fucking knows.....

 

[Xerof]

Who fucking knows.....

It’s Friday, so Hu knows

 

[marksmann007]

 

[cruiser51]

It’s Friday, so Hu knows

Fuks nose.