AVZ Discussion 2022

JNRB

Regular
Thats how I am reading it. We should hear something at the 11th hour. The chinese will know the deal with Kobold (someone always leaks, and they have their spies). Like we know the chinese do, could make their offer in that 11th hour. One way or another we will know before arbitration.
We should also not forget the Chinese have ALREADY made an initial offer:

- Chip-in a huge chunk of cash to develop the project in return for a 30% stake and offer AVZ earn-in potential for further dow stream processing. As long as they get all the product.

It's on the Americans now to stump up a counter-offer that beats this. China may well offer their own total buyout after that, but they at least have made an offer to get this project moving in a way that's still attractive to AVZ holders
 
  • Like
  • Thinking
Reactions: 8 users

LOCKY82

Regular
Too much focus on what the amount will be. Would be nice to ponder when. AVZ have proposed to temporarily suspend the legal action to facilitate the transfer, presumably if terms have not been set, there would be no need for a transfer which means no need to pause, so the legal action would go ahead... which means we should see something in the next 3 weeks?

or am I reading this wrong?
Too much focus on what the amount will be. Would be nice to ponder when. AVZ have proposed to temporarily suspend the legal action to facilitate the transfer, presumably if terms have not been set, there would be no need for a transfer which means no need to pause, so the legal action would go ahead... which means we should see something in the next 3 weeks?

or am I reading this wrong?


19 days! Jesus I think I'll need a pre announcement that there's going to be an announcement for my hearts sake
 
  • Haha
  • Like
  • Fire
Reactions: 11 users

Xerof

High Hopes 1994
What is the delaying court tactic going to achieve at this hour? It’s not going to get the case thrown out or delayed weeks/months? Just seems an easy way to piss money up the wall in lawyer fees.

So far their attempts don't seem to have delayed the hearing, but they tried like fuck to do so. Piss lawyer fees up the wall?, yes thats their other angle
 
  • Like
  • Haha
Reactions: 9 users

wombat74

Top 20
We should also not forget the Chinese have ALREADY made an initial offer:

- Chip-in a huge chunk of cash to develop the project in return for a 30% stake and offer AVZ earn-in potential for further dow stream processing. As long as they get all the product.

It's on the Americans now to stump up a counter-offer that beats this. China may well offer their own total buyout after that, but they at least have made an offer to get this project moving in a way that's still attractive to AVZ holders
Is there not a US Security/Protection/ Felix Deal attached to the Manono deal ? USA/Roche Dure . China /CDL .
 
  • Like
Reactions: 1 users

cruiser51

Top 20
Too much focus on what the amount will be. Would be nice to ponder when. AVZ have proposed to temporarily suspend the legal action to facilitate the transfer, presumably if terms have not been set, there would be no need for a transfer which means no need to pause, so the legal action would go ahead... which means we should see something in the next 3 weeks?

or am I reading this wrong?
I would say the latest ICSID update means for the DRC to get its finger out, if they don't want their dirty linen hang out for all to see. 19 days to go, same as Jen's birthday.
 
  • Like
  • Haha
Reactions: 11 users

Skar

Regular
Is there not a US Security/Protection/ Felix Deal attached to the Manono deal ? USA/Roche Dure . China /CDL .
"The code is more what you'd call guidelines, than actual rules. The only rules that really matter are what a man can do and what a man can't do".
 
  • Like
Reactions: 3 users

Uglybob

Regular
It's important to remember here that the US aren't coming in to save the day from a position of power. The Trumpster fire started a trade war with China without ensuring they had a good supply of everything they need first. US have no rare earth metals. China does.

The DRC deal is about more than just Li for the US, it's about sourcing a bunch of different stuff that China won't sell them any more.
Trump won't admit he screwed up so it'll be interesting to see what he'll do to make this happen in their favor, but end of the day if China offer more than Kobold, AVZ goes to them.

It comes down to business sense, not emotional warm and fuzzy feelings. I hate to say it, but China (Cath) has begrudgingly come to our aid to help fight off Kobold and the DRC so far. Without them I think we'd be in a worse spot than current. It'll be interesting to see where this lands.

Dis Gonna Be Good Jason Momoa GIF
 
  • Like
Reactions: 17 users

ptlas

Regular
What is the delaying court tactic going to achieve at this hour? It’s not going to get the case thrown out or delayed weeks/months? Just seems an easy way to piss money up the wall in lawyer fees.
Zijin is continuing to prepare the north for production.
So the Chinese will not stand still, but delay and frustrate AVZ and the west while hoping for a miracle.
DRC will be receiving paper bags from alternative sources.
Plenty of mining in the country.
Normal service.
 
  • Like
  • Haha
Reactions: 8 users

Skar

Regular
It's important to remember here that the US aren't coming in to save the day from a position of power. The Trumpster fire started a trade war with China without ensuring they had a good supply of everything they need first. US have no rare earth metals. China does.
Trump receives a lot of flack but he is very shrewd. China just settled with very favourable terms on the Tarriff situation.

The critical mineral supply is what they are sureing up now... it will take time to get up and running but its also on the G7 radar now too. Would be good to find a decent exit soon but its not the only (or last) good exit left. Once China supply dominance is disrupted they cant keep manipulating mineral price like they have which opens up more economic opportunity for western miners (everyone doing it tough now).
 
  • Like
  • Thinking
Reactions: 15 users

cruiser51

Top 20
Zijin is continuing to prepare the north for production.
So the Chinese will not stand still, but delay and frustrate AVZ and the west while hoping for a miracle.
DRC will be receiving paper bags from alternative sources.
Plenty of mining in the country.
Normal service.
If you wish to operate in the DRC, compete with the Chinese and not be willing to be part of the bribing game, it is like having both arms tied behind your back and your legs in ankle chains.

Australian companies involved in overseas bribing get punished in Australia, if found out.
Chinese companies, especially state owned, don't have to deal with that inconvenience. So the trick for Australian companies is don't get found out, but the Chinese will dob you in anyhow.
So it is not really a level playing field.
I have been surprised AVZ has been able to get this far without losing any of their Australian team members, while playing with a straight bat.
Beside of huge lips and lenny of course, but they can be considered as (ex)samples without any further value.
 
  • Like
Reactions: 7 users

wombat74

Top 20
Lets not forget Nigel put his signature on this . MOU or not . Point number 5 stands out :Working at all possible speed to conclude the commercial agreement .
1747113402747.png
 
Last edited:
  • Like
  • Fire
  • Thinking
Reactions: 23 users

Skar

Regular
Australian companies involved in overseas bribing get punished in Australia, if found out.
Chinese companies, especially state owned, don't have to deal with that inconvenience. So the trick for Australian companies is don't get found out, but the Chinese will dob you in anyhow.
So it is not really a level playing field.
Exactly... https://www.csis.org/analysis/g7-cooperation-de-risk-minerals-investments-global-south

"with raw materials shipped back to China for processing. China then leverages its market power to manipulate commodity prices and restrict exports, making it increasingly difficult for Western companies to compete and attract private capital."

"The scale of capital required to create resilient supply chains is insurmountable by a single country. Figures for the cost of mineral investments needed for energy alone range from $590 billion to upwards of $2 trillion by 2040. Yet in 2023, G7 countries collectively committed just $13 billion to domestic and international critical mineral initiatives—an amount that falls drastically short.

A well-structured G7 Critical Minerals Investment Fund that pools capital from all seven nations towards high-priority projects can help de-risk projects, provide much-needed capital, incentivize private investment, and ensure guaranteed offtake of materials to G7 countries can counter the dominance of adversaries in the global minerals industry."

This is what I mean when I say, its on the radar.
 
  • Like
  • Thinking
Reactions: 12 users

Skar

Regular
Lets not forget Nigel put his signature on this . MOU or not . Point number 5 stands out :Working at all possible speed to conclude the commercial agreement .
View attachment 84363
For the benefit of all.... maybe we will get a juicy royalty after all.
 
  • Like
  • Thinking
Reactions: 10 users

Dazmac66

Regular
The following is from chat gpt, it explains what I was thinking when reading point 5. It also invokes the word that cannot be spoken amongst long term AVZ holders for fear of jinxing the whole shit show further! A deal is indeed imm.....!



The word **"the"** in the statement *"Working at all possible speed to conclude **the** commercial agreement"* plays a significant grammatical and contextual role. Here's the analysis of its importance:

### 1. **Definiteness and Specificity**

* **"The"** is a definite article. It signals that the **commercial agreement** being referred to is a **specific, identifiable** one, known to both the speaker and the audience.
* Without "the", if it said *"a commercial agreement"*, it would suggest **any** agreement, not a particular one.
* This implies that discussions, negotiations, or references to this agreement have already taken place, making it a **known entity**.

### 2. **Legal or Formal Context**

* In commercial or legal language, definite articles often imply **formal recognition**. "The commercial agreement" might refer to a **drafted or soon-to-be-signed document**, reinforcing its **official status**.

### 3. **Implication of Urgency and Focus**

* Using "the" suggests that **all current efforts** are focused on **one specific task** — finalizing **that** particular agreement.
* This narrows the scope, implying **priority and urgency** in completing that exact agreement.

### Summary

The word **"the"** indicates specificity, formal recognition, and focused urgency. Its use shapes the reader’s understanding of the sentence, signaling that the commercial agreement is not just any agreement, but a known and significant one, central to the action described.
 
  • Like
Reactions: 11 users
The ICSID is a non starter IMO . I'm expecting Kobold to tweak their offer to get a deal done ASAP . Kobold nuppty on YouTube was almost blowing his load with excitement .
I agree Wombat. Every chance IMO.
 
  • Like
Reactions: 9 users

Retrobyte

Hates a beer
For the benefit of all.... maybe we will get a juicy royalty after all.

Maybe - but Kobold aren't listed so that would be interesting
 
  • Like
Reactions: 3 users

cruiser51

Top 20
For the benefit of all.... maybe we will get a juicy royalty after all.
Shares in Kobold could be a good alternative.
 
  • Like
  • Thinking
Reactions: 5 users

Flight996

Regular
And today there's this...

1747120738303.png

Ref:
Probably just 11th hour posturing by both sides in order to get the best negotiated deal.

Unfortunately, I do not have a subscription (US$1,226, AU$1,915/yr online only access), and the usual paywall bypass tools are not useful for this website.

Cheers
F
 
Last edited:
  • Like
Reactions: 5 users

LOCKY82

Regular

Attachments

  • Screenshot_20250513_193013_Chrome.jpg
    Screenshot_20250513_193013_Chrome.jpg
    866.8 KB · Views: 63
  • Like
  • Thinking
Reactions: 8 users

cruiser51

Top 20

Attachments

  • Screenshot 2025-05-13 at 15.21.11.png
    Screenshot 2025-05-13 at 15.21.11.png
    221.9 KB · Views: 68
  • Screenshot 2025-05-13 at 15.21.11.png
    Screenshot 2025-05-13 at 15.21.11.png
    221.9 KB · Views: 65
  • Like
  • Thinking
Reactions: 7 users
Top Bottom