The Talga Bar

[Semmel]

Hi all
Nice to see a few familiar avatars that have deserted the Beach!
I didn’t want to join another stock forum, but appreciate the insights many of you provide and i genuinely believe Talga will be a household name in the next five years.

welcome

One topic that hasn’t been talked about much is their cobalt asset & I wonder if Mark is having second thoughts spinning it off given the permitting landscape has improved substantially & could genuinely be another asset they may look to progress themselves or perhaps with a partner?

I dont know if there is anything to it or if it is sold or a bartering element. But given the time frame of even an improved permitting process, I dont think the cobalt mine is getting any traction or relevance any time soon, Cobalt is not in the core interest of Talga at moment and maybe never will be important enough to develop the mine in any appreciable time frame. As an investor, I dont tend to look at specific things that are at least 10 years out. General trends sure, but specifics like development prospects of a mine.. that has to be far more concrete in order to factor it into any investment thesis.
And talking about long trends, Cobalt is slowly phased out from batteries. LFP doesnt need it (which will become the vast majority of batteries) and Nickel chemistries are reducing it wherever possible. Tesla is even talking about removing it entirely. So its not really a future proof mineral, at least not in the battery space. So I would not put a lot of value into the Cobalt deposit, whether its sold or not.

 

[TentCity]

welcome



I dont know if there is anything to it or if it is sold or a bartering element. But given the time frame of even an improved permitting process, I dont think the cobalt mine is getting any traction or relevance any time soon, Cobalt is not in the core interest of Talga at moment and maybe never will be important enough to develop the mine in any appreciable time frame. As an investor, I dont tend to look at specific things that are at least 10 years out. General trends sure, but specifics like development prospects of a mine.. that has to be far more concrete in order to factor it into any investment thesis.
And talking about long trends, Cobalt is slowly phased out from batteries. LFP doesnt need it (which will become the vast majority of batteries) and Nickel chemistries are reducing it wherever possible. Tesla is even talking about removing it entirely. So its not really a future proof mineral, at least not in the battery space. So I would not put a lot of value into the Cobalt deposit, whether its sold or not.

Thanks for the reply Semmel - I’ve included an extract below from Talga’s most recent December quarterly report.

Non-core mineral projects in Sweden
The Company has continued positive discussion with parties regarding its iron ore and cobalt mineral projects in Sweden, however no decisions have been made amid the volatility of both commodities and markets. The sentiment around battery and strategic metals continues to grow strongly and Talga is confident of compelling opportunities arising from these projects in the near-term.

For a company that is typically very conservative with its commentary, i found the statement that Talga is “confident of compelling opportunities arising from these projects in the near term” very interesting.

I understand your point that Cobalt is not required in LFP batteries and there is a concerted effort to reduce the amount of Cobalt used long term. However, since this statement, the price of Cobalt has continued to trend higher and the underlying value if a transaction was to materialise could be of meaningful value to contribute towards the capex for Vittangi and complement potential Green funds we may secure from the EU.

The complicated bit is trying to ascertain what the market value of the Cobalt & Iron Ore assets may be and therefore what value these transactions may be worth to Talga. I will be interested to see their commentary on this in the next quarterly report.

 

[Semmel]

I agree, a cobalt mine might become interesting when talga is done developing the graphite business. Like, 2025 ish when Niska expansion is hopefully developed and talga has talent and capital available to start tackling new ventures. Like an expansion of graphite to 10x that of Niska expansion and possibly the cobalt mine. But that's a start at least 5 years down the line and another 5 years after that to operation at least. I would rather like them to concentrate all talent and energy they have on graphite for the next 5 years, maybe longer in order to get a cash cow and help Europe become graphite independent from china. Once that is going smoothly with a good path forward, a diversion to cobalt might be ok. But who knows what's going on then? Graphite has simply so much more prospect than cobalt.

And what comes to the prospects of the cobalt deposit, it's obvious they write this in their report if they want to sell it..

 

[scep]

Hi Semmel, agree with you about cobalt albeit optimistic about timing. Leading to my question what has to be done before the mine is operational, who is going to do it and what are the lead times c.q. milestones?

With the EVA plant Talga demonstrates confidence about permits, finance and off-take. Developing the underground infra will take some time. Will digging the first tunnels already result in substantial graphite? I guess it would.

I am not talking accelerated production yet, but don''t mind to be positively surprised. Anyway, I expect to keep my shares tightly. It would not be the first time Talga surprises me positively with their proactiveness, GLTA.

 

[Semmel]

Hi Semmel, agree with you about cobalt albeit optimistic about timing. Leading to my question what has to be done before the mine is operational, who is going to do it and what are the lead times c.q. milestones?

Im not an expert in mining and others here in the forum have more experience than I do. But there is a LOT to be done before a mine can open, here is an overview:

The permitting process — MineFacts

The permitting process

www.minefacts.eu

Each point in this list is a substantial amount of work. And this is just after you decided you want a mine. Before, you have to find out if you can extract the ore economically in the first place, how to process it. Who your customers might be. How long until you can come to market and what the market is in the future. That is easy for iron but cobalt for example is mainly used in fuel refining.. if it takes you 10 years to open the mine from start to finish and in 10 years, gas cars are nearly extinct, having a new cobalt mine might not be the best of ideas you ever had for instance.

With the EVA plant Talga demonstrates confidence about permits, finance and off-take. Developing the underground infra will take some time. Will digging the first tunnels already result in substantial graphite? I guess it would.

The first mine is an open pit mine. The Niska expansion is planned to be underground. Since the minerals start practically at the surface, its going to produce graphite from day one.

I am not talking accelerated production yet, but don''t mind to be positively surprised. Anyway, I expect to keep my shares tightly. It would not be the first time Talga surprises me positively with their proactiveness, GLTA.

Same. I keep my shars. Permits might ensure a bumpy road ahead, but I dont have margin and I dont care if it goes up and down a bit before everything is settled. Im looking forwards to the dividends, it might add a substantial bonus to my regular income in 5 to 10 years.

 

[FREYR]

Cobalt has other specialty uses, alloy steels, drill bits.

 

[PeeDeePee]

During the last month or so the rapid demise off a former market darling, has raised my awareness to an issue that is of vital importance to the future of the Talga Group. I'm talking about key man risk. No one, and I mean no one, expected or predicted that Hamish Douglass's private personal life would be the catalyst for the high profile implosion of the Magellan Financial Group. I have never held Magellan stock but I enjoy following anything that is newsworthy, so I thought that todays announcement in regard to Douglass's resignation from Magellan's Board would be considered as market sensitive information, obviously it's not.

As we are all aware, Mark Thompson is the driving force behind our company and I fear that without Mark at the helm we would be up shit creek, watching the value of our stock plummet. From a corporate point of view, most companies take crisis and succession planning very seriously and I hope that our own executives are no different, because the status quo can be altered in an instant. Just ask Warnie's family. And I'm sure that many of you would recall the tragic aeroplane crash of a decade ago, that claimed the lives of Ken Talbot and the entire Board of Directors of Sundance Resources, a company I was invested in.

With a bit of luck and the right Permits we might be mining ore and producing product sooner rather than later, but at the moment the market for TLG stock is fragile enough, so any unforeseen disruption over the coming months could potentially be disastrous.

So if Mark's wife or mother is reading this, please make sure that our boy eats his vegetables and gets a bit of exercise.

PDP

 

[TentCity]

During the last month or so the rapid demise off a former market darling, has raised my awareness to an issue that is of vital importance to the future of the Talga Group. I'm talking about key man risk. No one, and I mean no one, expected or predicted that Hamish Douglass's private personal life would be the catalyst for the high profile implosion of the Magellan Financial Group. I have never held Magellan stock but I enjoy following anything that is newsworthy, so I thought that todays announcement in regard to Douglass's resignation from Magellan's Board would be considered as market sensitive information, obviously it's not.

As we are all aware, Mark Thompson is the driving force behind our company and I fear that without Mark at the helm we would be up shit creek, watching the value of our stock plummet. From a corporate point of view, most companies take crisis and succession planning very seriously and I hope that our own executives are no different, because the status quo can be altered in an instant. Just ask Warnie's family. And I'm sure that many of you would recall the tragic aeroplane crash of a decade ago, that claimed the lives of Ken Talbot and the entire Board of Directors of Sundance Resources, a company I was invested in.

With a bit of luck and the right Permits we might be mining ore and producing product sooner rather than later, but at the moment the market for TLG stock is fragile enough, so any unforeseen disruption over the coming months could potentially be disastrous.

So if Mark's wife or mother is reading this, please make sure that our boy eats his vegetables and gets a bit of exercise.

PDP

Yeah i remember the Sundance tragedy well and recall that new guidelines were brought in suggesting that an entire leadership team shouldn’t travel together in case that happened again.

In our case, while Mark is irreplaceable, i feel due to Covid, Martin Phillip’s leadership of the company has been elevated to represent Talga by being based in Europe and Mark’s inability to travel the past 2 years. Therefore, I imagine Martin has established direct relationships with a lot of the key influential leaders in the European market including many of our potential offtake partners.

It would be great if Mark can get on a plane and be in Sweden for the launch of the newly commisioned EVA Plant early next month with W.A’s borders finally being relaxed somewhat. Perfect time for our main man to be shaking hands with Swedish & EU Government officials so close to a decision on permits being hopefully announced.

 

[stimmsy]

Well - I found the trail of breadcrumbs from HC back to the flock - not the flock of seagulls ofcourse, as they hangout too close to the beach. But seriously, i'm very thirsty for favourite beverage at the hottest new bar in town, some banter and productive chats posthaste. Hopefully, the bar has a permit in the pipeline...

 

[PeeDeePee]

Yeah i remember the Sundance tragedy well and recall that new guidelines were brought in suggesting that an entire leadership team shouldn’t travel together in case that happened again.

In our case, while Mark is irreplaceable, i feel due to Covid, Martin Phillip’s leadership of the company has been elevated to represent Talga by being based in Europe and Mark’s inability to travel the past 2 years. Therefore, I imagine Martin has established direct relationships with a lot of the key influential leaders in the European market including many of our potential offtake partners.

It would be great if Mark can get on a plane and be in Sweden for the launch of the newly commisioned EVA Plant early next month with W.A’s borders finally being relaxed somewhat. Perfect time for our main man to be shaking hands with Swedish & EU Government officials so close to a decision on permits being hopefully announced.

good point about Martin Phillip's - maybe MT is over there already ?

 

[23423982]

I had assumed that MT would get to Europe asap after such a long time away but this is only an assumption.

 

[Token35]

I'm long (well... 2 years or so) watcher/reader of the HC thread. Never posted.

I have very much enjoyed and valued the analysis posted there as well as a bit of the banter. The latter has gotten out of control and headed down hill, so I'm happy to have found my way here.

I hope that we may be able to keep up the valuable insights and stock analysis/predictions. Thanks to all of those who put time and effort in so that the less knowledgeable (like myself) can learn along the way. DYOR of course, but it's all still helpful.

 

[WheresTheMonkey]

I had assumed that MT would get to Europe asap after such a long time away but this is only an assumption.

Sweden still has entry restrictions in place. You must be from the EU to travel there. Indirect travel via an EU country is also restricted as for instance France has a list of Green countries (easy enry) and then a list of Orange countries (restricted entry). Australia is on the Orange list

 

[Affenhorst]

Checking out this new joint. Seems decent and far from the beach. Can I get a Gin Tonic please?

 

[Semmel]

Checking out this new joint. Seems decent and far from the beach. Can I get a Gin Tonic please?

Sure, first one is free. Welcome!

 

[cosors]

Now the controversy over the Kallak decision is on. The dis are digging deep to find a weak point. I wonder why they are all so upset. This is a relatively unimportant preliminary decision and not the downfall.

"Conflict behind Kallak decision​

march 28, 2022
The government's green light for the Kallak mining project in Norrbotten may be based on an incorrect decision. A responsible administrator at the Ministry of Trade and Industry may have been guilty of so-called two-instance fraud, writes DN.
The Government Offices' responsible administrator for the Kalla case, in his previous employment at the Swedish Geological Survey, SGU, was involved in deciding that the iron ore in Kallak would be in the national interest. It's called a two-instance scuffle.
Two-instance bribery is prohibited by law. This means that an administrator in a higher instance has already previously participated in the final handling of a case in a lower instance.
“This administrator has participated in a decision at SGU based on the process. This means that she, as an administrator at the Ministry of Trade and Industry, must not come close to this matter, then it is a two-instance dispute. Because once you have made an opinion in a case, you can be almost certain that you will retain that opinion ", says Olle Lundin, professor of administrative law at Uppsala University, to the newspaper."
https://www.metallerochgruvor.se/20220328/8488/jav-bakom-kallak-beslut

 

[cosors]

Im not an expert in mining and others here in the forum have more experience than I do. But there is a LOT to be done before a mine can open, here is an overview:

The permitting process — MineFacts

The permitting process

www.minefacts.eu

Each point in this list is a substantial amount of work. And this is just after you decided you want a mine. Before, you have to find out if you can extract the ore economically in the first place, how to process it. Who your customers might be. How long until you can come to market and what the market is in the future. That is easy for iron but cobalt for example is mainly used in fuel refining.. if it takes you 10 years to open the mine from start to finish and in 10 years, gas cars are nearly extinct, having a new cobalt mine might not be the best of ideas you ever had for instance.



The first mine is an open pit mine. The Niska expansion is planned to be underground. Since the minerals start practically at the surface, its going to produce graphite from day one.



Same. I keep my shars. Permits might ensure a bumpy road ahead, but I dont have margin and I dont care if it goes up and down a bit before everything is settled. Im looking forwards to the dividends, it might add a substantial bonus to my regular income in 5 to 10 years.

These super-rich see an interest in cobalt and increase the pace to get it off the ground, against the resistance from the government in Greenland. There it's not about reindeer or trees but maybe about beautiful blank stone. Sorry, I'm a bit smugly(?).
Bezos/Bloomberg/Gates will have their reasons for Cobalt. Like the three I also see a longer need for cobalt. That's why I have some Electra BM that are starting in Idaho some time, which is really beautiful for miners ; )
I think the main argument against cobalt is the mining conditions in Congo and the dependency. If you can mine it more sustainably and reduce dependence, that's good. The fact that Tesla is out of cobalt is only a compromise solution, I think.

"Bezos companies start test drilling in Greenland​

march 25, 2022

The mineral exploration company KoBold Metals, which is supported by well-known billionaires such as Jeff Bezos and Bill Gates, recently stated that they will start test drilling in Greenland in search of critical materials such as cobalt and nickel, which are used in electric vehicles.
KoBold, which uses artificial intelligence and machine learning to search for metals, last year secured a 51 percent stake in the Disko-Nuussuaq project, which is located on Greenland's west coast and is operated by British Bluejay Mining. It states Reuters.
Drones will be used to make a high-resolution magnetic survey of the area and it is planned to drill a total of 3,000 meters this year, to a depth of between 150 and 400 meters where the metals are located. It will focus on large deposits of nickel, copper, cobalt and platinum metals, Bluejay Mining's CEO Bo Steensgaard explains to Reuters.
Nickel prices, used in stainless steel batteries and electric vehicles, have more than doubled recently in the wake of Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Russia accounts for about 10 percent of the world's nickel demand.
- The recent unfortunate geopolitical development clearly shows that the western world needs new deposits of these critical metals, says Steensgaard.
KoBold is a privately held company whose main investors include Breakthrough Energy Ventures, a climate and technology fund backed by Microsoft founder Bill Gates, Bloomberg founder Michael Bloomberg and Amazon founder Jeff Bezos."
https://www.metallerochgruvor.se/20220325/8482/bezos-foretag-inleder-provborrningar-pa-gronland


So for me it's not off. And I agree with you, the focus should be on the graphite for now. But MT is working with the university to figure out the deposit; see PhD thesis. And the urgency is very high not only in Europe. Here there is a new focus for critical raw materials.
https://www.europarl.europa.eu/news...ritical-raw-materials-crucial-for-eu-industry
https://www.europeanfiles.eu/climat...to-re-industrialise-key-industrial-ecosystems
It seems far too valuable to me to let the subject rest. You can work on it in parallel without it affecting your main business. The deposits are also divided into independent companies.

 

[Semmel]

These super-rich see an interest in cobalt and increase the pace to get it off the ground, against the resistance from the government in Greenland. There it's not about reindeer or trees but maybe about beautiful blank stone. Sorry, I'm a bit smugly(?).
Bezos/Bloomberg/Gates will have their reasons for Cobalt. Like the three I also see a longer need for cobalt. That's why I have some Electra BM that are starting in Idaho some time, which is really beautiful for miners ; )
I think the main argument against cobalt is the mining conditions in Congo and the dependency. If you can mine it more sustainably and reduce dependence, that's good. The fact that Tesla is out of cobalt is only a compromise solution, I think.

"Bezos companies start test drilling in Greenland​

march 25, 2022

The mineral exploration company KoBold Metals, which is supported by well-known billionaires such as Jeff Bezos and Bill Gates, recently stated that they will start test drilling in Greenland in search of critical materials such as cobalt and nickel, which are used in electric vehicles.
KoBold, which uses artificial intelligence and machine learning to search for metals, last year secured a 51 percent stake in the Disko-Nuussuaq project, which is located on Greenland's west coast and is operated by British Bluejay Mining. It states Reuters.
Drones will be used to make a high-resolution magnetic survey of the area and it is planned to drill a total of 3,000 meters this year, to a depth of between 150 and 400 meters where the metals are located. It will focus on large deposits of nickel, copper, cobalt and platinum metals, Bluejay Mining's CEO Bo Steensgaard explains to Reuters.
Nickel prices, used in stainless steel batteries and electric vehicles, have more than doubled recently in the wake of Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Russia accounts for about 10 percent of the world's nickel demand.
- The recent unfortunate geopolitical development clearly shows that the western world needs new deposits of these critical metals, says Steensgaard.
KoBold is a privately held company whose main investors include Breakthrough Energy Ventures, a climate and technology fund backed by Microsoft founder Bill Gates, Bloomberg founder Michael Bloomberg and Amazon founder Jeff Bezos."
https://www.metallerochgruvor.se/20220325/8482/bezos-foretag-inleder-provborrningar-pa-gronland


So for me it's not off. And I agree with you, the focus should be on the graphite for now. But MT is working with the university to figure out the deposit; see PhD thesis. And the urgency is very high not only in Europe. Here there is a new focus for critical raw materials.
https://www.europarl.europa.eu/news...ritical-raw-materials-crucial-for-eu-industry
https://www.europeanfiles.eu/climat...to-re-industrialise-key-industrial-ecosystems
It seems far too valuable to me to let the subject rest. You can work on it in parallel without it affecting your main business. The deposits are also divided into independent companies.

Cobalt in batteries has some advantages. It makes the battery more resilient to charging 100% and discharge to 0%. It loses less capacity. That's why it's in consumer electronics, it just takes the user abuse way better. In the car, the battery management is much better tuned to extend the lifetime without cobalt. The drawback of cobalt in batteries is, it makes the battery more flammable and more expensive. The human rights abuse in congo us just the public reason cobalt is reduced in mass battery systems. It's economics of safety and cost.

The vast majority of batteries will be in cars and storage with little need for cobalt. At the same time, the primary use for cobalt is in caralysts for oil refineries to create gasoline for cars. Which is on a global decline.

I appreciate your enthusiasm for cobalt but just don't see the macro forces supporting it like graphite. That's why I don't think much will come of it for talga. I can be totally wrong with that call of course, time will tell.

 

[GasperG]

If nickel and cobalt will be a bottlneck then we will just have more share of LFP. There are already 60-70 kWh packs in normal cars, with not that much of weight impact. Sure Nickel Cobalt offers even lighter packs with more range, but at some point you have to ask yourself what is Good enough for end product. And if that good enough is also cheaper and safer, then it's no brainer.

Sure, Nickel Cobalt will open new possibilities in applications that LFPs are just too heavy, but for econoboxes (cars) and BESS they will become predominate chemistry.

at the end of the day mass produced batteries will all need tones of Graphite. The high end stuff will slowly try to eliminate it, but purely for weight reasons, not the cycle life or price reasons. This may come after 20 years or so, when we will all be already rich.

 

[cosors]

Other topic...
I had to rub my eyes a bit => pithy words.
- Time to buy more!?

​

Thorwaldsson: "We will be a great power in the mining industry"​

2022-03-29 06:00

Minister of Trade and Industry Karl-Petter Thorwaldsson says "one hundred percent yes" to increasing the Swedish mining of nickel and other critical metals, to replace imports from Russia.
https://www.nyteknik.se/premium/thorwaldsson-vi-ska-vara-en-stormakt-inom-gruvnaringen-7030956

I actually really like the silence around us. I think when something doesn't go well, this one bangs on the table.