SP GUESSING GAME

[M_C]

There's been some mighty fine dot joining of late, and I know everyone is sick of seeing the manipulation of the SP and just want some big news from the company (which I'm sure will arrive eventually) but in the meantime,

thought it might be some weekend fun to speculate about SP predictions..................................Mine are below. The below is my opinion only, please DYOR.

By end of 2022 - $3-$5

By end of 2023 - $6 - $10

By end of 2024 - $15 - $25

 

[buena suerte :-)]

There's been some mighty fine dot joining of late, and I know everyone is sick of seeing the manipulation of the SP and just want some big news from the company (which I'm sure will arrive eventually) but in the meantime,

thought it might be some weekend fun to speculate about SP predictions..................................Mine are below. The below is my opinion only, please DYOR.

P.S I consider the following to be on the conservative side

By end of 2022 - $3-$5

By end of 2023 - $6 - $10

By end of 2024 - $15 - $25

2022.......$2.80 - $3.20
2023.......$6.75 - $8.45
2024.......$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$

 

[Stable Genius]

I’ve got a question I’ve been pondering for ages about the share price as I am not well schooled on these matters.

I appreciate there are many variables to derive a SP. For example Afterpay peaked over $100 without any profit so that really confuses me and I know there are some who are saying our current SP is overvalued based on our past and current revenue. I have bought Brainchip based on where the revenue could be in a few years time, not current revenue.

I was lucky when I first started investing a bit over a year ago and jagged LKE, SYA and NVX amongst a few losers I have sold off. I was pleasantly surprised at how they have grown without much in the profit line either. I still think BRN will be my best investment!

Based on our no. of shares 1.8 billion how much in annual revenue do we need to mathematically hit the $10 mark?

If I’m right and we are going to be in Valeo’s 3 Billion sensors over the next 5 years that equates to $600 000 000 a year if we get a $1 per sensor.
Obviously Valeo is not going to be our only line of revenue but based on that amount from Valeo alone what SP does that equate to please because I have no idea?

Cheers

 

[IloveLamp]

I’ve got a question I’ve been pondering for ages about the share price as I am not well schooled on these matters.

I appreciate there are many variables to derive a SP. For example Afterpay peaked over $100 without any profit so that really confuses me and I know there are some who are saying our current SP is overvalued based on our past and current revenue. I have bought Brainchip based on where the revenue could be in a few years time, not current revenue.

I was lucky when I first started investing a bit over a year ago and jagged LKE, SYA and NVX amongst a few losers I have sold off. I was pleasantly surprised at how they have grown without much in the profit line either. I still think BRN will be my best investment!

Based on our no. of shares 1.8 billion how much in annual revenue do we need to mathematically hit the $10 mark?

If I’m right and we are going to be in Valeo’s 3 Billion sensors over the next 5 years that equates to $600 000 000 a year if we get a $1 per sensor.
Obviously Valeo is not going to be our only line of revenue but based on that amount from Valeo alone what SP does that equate to please because I have no idea?

Cheers

Here's the problem with the way you're thinking about it (imo).

SG,

APT (afterpay) is a tech stock (albeit bnpl), and so they generally aren't subject to the same SP to income ratios that so many investors use to value ASX stocks.

The NASDAQ is an entirely different ball game. Tech stocks (particularly ones listed in the U.S on the NASDAQ), are usually well overvalued using the above formulas. It's pretty much going to come down to revenue yes, and net profit yes, but really at the end of the day we will need some big names to step forward and sign deals to see the sp finally break free (somewhat) of the sp manipulation that's occuring.

I believe very strongly that BRN's sp will be the target of manipulation for years to come, by those who seem determined to hold us back while they accumulate, but this will gradually change with every deal we ink and every article that gets written about us, the manipulation will become less affective and have less of an impact the more the world wakes up.

The fact is BRN just isn't comparable to any BNPL stock (asx or nasdaq) or any other tech stock for that matter, unless you can find another company that has commercialised and is selling an amazing neuromorphic chip which shits all over the competition?

At the end of the day, no one is capable of accurately predicting the sp in 2 weeks from now let alone 2 years, but that shouldn't stop us having a bit of fun now should it!?

All imo only dyor

 

[Stable Genius]

Here's the problem with the way you're thinking about it (imo).

SG,

APT (afterpay) is a tech stock (albeit bnpl), and so they generally aren't subject to the same SP to income ratios that so many investors use to value ASX stocks.

The NASDAQ is an entirely different ball game. Tech stocks (particularly ones listed in the U.S on the NASDAQ), are usually well overvalued using the above formulas. It's pretty much going to come down to revenue yes, and net profit yes, but really at the end of the day we will need some big names to step forward and sign deals to see the sp finally break free (somewhat) of the sp manipulation that's occuring.

I believe very strongly that BRN's sp will be the target of manipulation for years to come, by those who seem determined to hold us back while they accumulate, but this will gradually change with every deal we ink and every article that gets written about us, the manipulation will become less affective and have less of an impact the more the world wakes up.

The fact is BRN just isn't comparable to any BNPL stock (asx or nasdaq) or any other tech stock for that matter, unless you can find another company that has commercialised and is selling an amazing neuromorphic chip which shits all over the competition?

At the end of the day, no one is capable of accurately predicting the sp in 2 weeks from now let alone 2 years, but that shouldn't stop us having a bit of fun now should it!?

All imo only dyor

Thanks for the reply ILL.

Just curious as to what others think or how they value the company. With the sheer no. of endless possibilities the skies the limit!

If the Nanose device is released this year then I am hopeful a $10 SP is a chance!

Cheers

 

[Fact Finder]

Hi SG

Afterpay is an easy one to understand because everyone understands debt or the selling thereof as a way of making money. Even the Bible has Christ doing away with the money lenders.

It is ingrained in us that lending money at excessive rates of interest makes you wealthy but most of us would not dare set up a lending shop and employing muscle to collect but we all know we would make a lot of money if we did. Afterpay made it possible for people to legitimately do this without feelings of guilt.

My late father-in-law had a term 'a licence to print money' which was used by him in respect of the banking industry. So the one thing that never happened because of this was dodgy analysts saying things like "what's a neuromorphic chip anyway" and "if it really worked it would not be on the ASX" etc. They got away with it because in reality no one actually understands technology like they understand debt and making money from selling it. An investment analyst talking about PE ratios just does not create the same panic amongst those who do not make a study of the markets at any depth. Could be wrong but that is my simple explanation.

As for PE ratio's I think they are overrated as any sort of indicator of market sentiment. What Brainchip needs is a big named multinational that every man and his dog has heard of validating AKIDA technology. That validation will come with dollars attached but you only have to look at what the off the cuff validation in a couple of interviews with Mercedes did for the Brainchip share price. Just look at how the German investors reacted. I suspect you will have read a week ago about the share price in Germany going up overnight and it turned out that the ISL agreement had been disclosed over there as if it was fresh news. It took a little while for the fact it was old news to filter through. What this said to me was that the couple of off the cuff remarks by Mercedes drowned out even an official announcement from Brainchip such was the importance to retail investors over there of Mercedes validation.

If we get the ASX announcement that Mercedes has licenced AKIDA IP for use in its vehicles anyone who knows how Mercedes works will know that they will start small and build up with the roll out of the technology. Why do they do this because of how much it costs to recall vehicles. The fewer vehicles the less it costs so Mercedes as a rule rolls out new features/technologies/ideas in the top of the range S Class which is only a couple of million vehicle sales world wide. They iron out all the bugs at this level before trickling it down to the other vehicle classes which get sold in millions of units. It is a very good tried and tested business model that is followed by most of the big players.

There are so many examples not just Afterpay of high value companies where the value of the shares are disconnected to analysts PE ratios. You have no further to look than Tesla to find an absolute investment dog if you judge it on PE ratios but from investors points of view it is a darling.

I have put at least $2.75 by Christmas on Brainchip and I only need two things in my opinion for this to occur and that is for investors to start to see income grow as predicted in the second half of this year which will cement the credibility of management in the markets eyes and one more decent announcement regarding an IP licence to an existing EAP. If my calculations are not off this gives me up to 15 chances of getting one announcement of this kind over the next 9 months. I think personally these are pretty good odds.

Why I think these are pretty good odds is that the CEO Sean Hehir was holding out hope that he could convince two of the EAP's to allow Brainchip to put up their logos. Why was he so specific about the number two? Why did he not say some or be even more general? The reason in my opinion was because there are two EAP's that are on the cusp of coming out and it was his reasoning that they are so close anyway that allowing their logos will not be an issue.

So by hoping for one announcement this side of Christmas I am doubling my chances because in my opinion Sean Hehir has telegraphed there will be two at least.

My opinion only DYOR
FF

AKIDA BALLISTA

 

[buena suerte :-)]

Hi SG

Afterpay is an easy one to understand because everyone understands debt or the selling thereof as a way of making money. Even the Bible has Christ doing away with the money lenders.

It is ingrained in us that lending money at excessive rates of interest makes you wealthy but most of us would not dare set up a lending shop and employing muscle to collect but we all know we would make a lot of money if we did. Afterpay made it possible for people to legitimately do this without feelings of guilt.

My late father-in-law had a term 'a licence to print money' which was used by him in respect of the banking industry. So the one thing that never happened because of this was dodgy analysts saying things like "what's a neuromorphic chip anyway" and "if it really worked it would not be on the ASX" etc. They got away with it because in reality no one actually understands technology like they understand debt and making money from selling it. An investment analyst talking about PE ratios just does not create the same panic amongst those who do not make a study of the markets at any depth. Could be wrong but that is my simple explanation.

As for PE ratio's I think they are overrated as any sort of indicator of market sentiment. What Brainchip needs is a big named multinational that every man and his dog has heard of validating AKIDA technology. That validation will come with dollars attached but you only have to look at what the off the cuff validation in a couple of interviews with Mercedes did for the Brainchip share price. Just look at how the German investors reacted. I suspect you will have read a week ago about the share price in Germany going up overnight and it turned out that the ISL agreement had been disclosed over there as if it was fresh news. It took a little while for the fact it was old news to filter through. What this said to me was that the couple of off the cuff remarks by Mercedes drowned out even an official announcement from Brainchip such was the importance to retail investors over there of Mercedes validation.

If we get the ASX announcement that Mercedes has licenced AKIDA IP for use in its vehicles anyone who knows how Mercedes works will know that they will start small and build up with the roll out of the technology. Why do they do this because of how much it costs to recall vehicles. The fewer vehicles the less it costs so Mercedes as a rule rolls out new features/technologies/ideas in the top of the range S Class which is only a couple of million vehicle sales world wide. They iron out all the bugs at this level before trickling it down to the other vehicle classes which get sold in millions of units. It is a very good tried and tested business model that is followed by most of the big players.

There are so many examples not just Afterpay of high value companies where the value of the shares are disconnected to analysts PE ratios. You have no further to look than Tesla to find an absolute investment dog if you judge it on PE ratios but from investors points of view it is a darling.

I have put at least $2.75 by Christmas on Brainchip and I only need two things in my opinion for this to occur and that is for investors to start to see income grow as predicted in the second half of this year which will cement the credibility of management in the markets eyes and one more decent announcement regarding an IP licence to an existing EAP. If my calculations are not off this gives me up to 15 chances of getting one announcement of this kind over the next 9 months. I think personally these are pretty good odds.

Why I think these are pretty good odds is that the CEO Sean Hehir was holding out hope that he could convince two of the EAP's to allow Brainchip to put up their logos. Why was he so specific about the number two? Why did he not say some or be even more general? The reason in my opinion was because there are two EAP's that are on the cusp of coming out and it was his reasoning that they are so close anyway that allowing their logos will not be an issue.

So by hoping for one announcement this side of Christmas I am doubling my chances because in my opinion Sean Hehir has telegraphed there will be two at least.

My opinion only DYOR
FF

AKIDA BALLISTA

Great read FF .... hope you are keeping fit and healthy...

 

[Fact Finder]

Great read FF .... hope you are keeping fit and healthy...

Yes just like the bloke falling from the skyscraper - so far so good. LOL FF

 

[Esq.111]

I’ve got a question I’ve been pondering for ages about the share price as I am not well schooled on these matters.

I appreciate there are many variables to derive a SP. For example Afterpay peaked over $100 without any profit so that really confuses me and I know there are some who are saying our current SP is overvalued based on our past and current revenue. I have bought Brainchip based on where the revenue could be in a few years time, not current revenue.

I was lucky when I first started investing a bit over a year ago and jagged LKE, SYA and NVX amongst a few losers I have sold off. I was pleasantly surprised at how they have grown without much in the profit line either. I still think BRN will be my best investment!

Based on our no. of shares 1.8 billion how much in annual revenue do we need to mathematically hit the $10 mark?

If I’m right and we are going to be in Valeo’s 3 Billion sensors over the next 5 years that equates to $600 000 000 a year if we get a $1 per sensor.
Obviously Valeo is not going to be our only line of revenue but based on that amount from Valeo alone what SP does that equate to please because I have no idea?

Cheers

Afternoon Stable Genius,

Like your thinking.

Some quick basic math off your above post and future PE ratios.

Potential Valeo Royaltias of $1.00 per unit x 600,000,000 per year.

$600million @ price to earnings ratio of..

1, PE of 7 = $4,200,000,000 ÷ 1.8 billion shares on issue = $2.333
( I have always thought that solid Blue Chip stocks trading under 7 pe were a bargain over the the long term).

2, PE 10 = $6 billion÷1.8bill Shares on issue= $3.33 share price

3, PE 25 = $15 billion÷1.8 bill SOI=$8.33 share price.

4, PE 100=$60 billion÷1.8 billion SOI= $33.33 share price.

* Worth noting....
Tesla trading on a PE of 219.92 as of March 2022.
Amazon trading on an estimated PE of 62.64.
Berkshire Hathaway trading on a PE of 29.484 as of march 2022.

Hypothetically if the above automotive derived revenues to BRN was say 30% Of total revenues out of a diverse plethora of revenue streams...
NASA,
Airforce,
Space Force,
Navy,
Armey,
NSA,
CIA,
FBI,
Computer Security private and company,
Flying transporters and Drones,
Civilian air craft,
Cochlear implants,
Heart rate/Blood pressure/Glucose levels etc,
VOC,
Prosthetic limbs,
Vibration - From industrial structures to Heavy rail haulage to motor/ bearings to Dildonics.
Then add the 100 plus things I have forgotten or simply have not come to fruition yet due to not having AKIDA 1,2,3.

So.....

Adding 70% to the above numbers things start to look quite nice.

$600,000,000 (30%)+$1,400,000,000(70%)=$2,000,000,000 per annum Revenues.

1, $2bill x PE 7 =$14billion÷1.8 bill SOI=$7.78 per share.

2, $2bill x PE10=$20 bill÷1.8bill SOI=$11.111 per share.

3, $2bill x PE 25 =$50 bill÷1.8 bill SOI=$27.778 per share.

4, $2bill x PE100=$200bill÷1.8bill SOI= $111.111 per share.

I'm EXCITED.

Regards,
Esq.

 

[Quiltman]

The psychology of time.
90% of my BRN holding is in super. I’m officially allowed to access it in 6 years. As far as I’m concerned it’s an untouchable allocation within my super portfolio. So I sit back in some sort of serene bubble watching the SP gyrations extremely confident in the long game. The market we are competing in is the ultimate “rising tide”, and I can’t envisage any scenario where BRN will not be one of the major players. The resultant SP will be overwhelming IMHO.


The remaining 10% of my holding that I could cash any time. Well , I watch that like some sort of junkie worried about the daily movements. Insane ! I remind myself of my stupidity regularly and hope for a $5 SP by years end, despite my logic saying around $2.

Much better for the blood pressure to take the long term view !

 

[Stable Genius]

Afternoon Stable Genius,

Like your thinking.

Some quick basic math off your above post and future PE ratios.

Potential Valeo Royaltias of $1.00 per unit x 600,000,000 per year.

$600million @ price to earnings ratio of..

1, PE of 7 = $4,200,000,000 ÷ 1.8 billion shares on issue = $2.333
( I have always thought that solid Blue Chip stocks trading under 7 pe were a bargain over the the long term).

2, PE 10 = $6 billion÷1.8bill Shares on issue= $3.33 share price

3, PE 25 = $15 billion÷1.8 bill SOI=$8.33 share price.

4, PE 100=$60 billion÷1.8 billion SOI= $33.33 share price.

* Worth noting....
Tesla trading on a PE of 219.92 as of March 2022.
Amazon trading on an estimated PE of 62.64.
Berkshire Hathaway trading on a PE of 29.484 as of march 2022.

Hypothetically if the above automotive derived revenues to BRN was say 30% Of total revenues out of a diverse plethora of revenue streams...
NASA,
Airforce,
Space Force,
Navy,
Armey,
NSA,
CIA,
FBI,
Computer Security private and company,
Flying transporters and Drones,
Civilian air craft,
Cochlear implants,
Heart rate/Blood pressure/Glucose levels etc,
VOC,
Prosthetic limbs,
Vibration - From industrial structures to Heavy rail haulage to motor/ bearings to Dildonics.
Then add the 100 plus things I have forgotten or simply have not come to fruition yet due to not having AKIDA 1,2,3.

So.....

Adding 70% to the above numbers things start to look quite nice.

$600,000,000 (30%)+$1,400,000,000(70%)=$2,000,000,000 per annum Revenues.

1, $2bill x PE 7 =$14billion÷1.8 bill SOI=$7.78 per share.

2, $2bill x PE10=$20 bill÷1.8bill SOI=$11.111 per share.

3, $2bill x PE 25 =$50 bill÷1.8 bill SOI=$27.778 per share.

4, $2bill x PE100=$200bill÷1.8bill SOI= $111.111 per share.

I'm EXCITED.

Regards,
Esq.

Thanks for the feedback ESQ.

So many opportunities for success!

The realist in me appreciates the growth will be slow but steady: like Quiltman said “A rising tide.”

I am patient and accept that it will take time for the products to be made.

I am very confident it will happen with many EAPs and the SP will rise accordingly!

Cheers

 

[IloveLamp]

Wowee

Drive: Family affair: How the Ford and Volkswagen ute deal was done.

Family affair: How the Ford and Volkswagen ute deal was done

The landmark deal between Ford and Volkswagen to partner on their next-generation pick-ups began at the highest levels of both companies – with a family catch-up.

www.drive.com.au

 

[buena suerte :-)]

Afternoon Stable Genius,

Like your thinking.

Some quick basic math off your above post and future PE ratios.

Potential Valeo Royaltias of $1.00 per unit x 600,000,000 per year.

$600million @ price to earnings ratio of..

1, PE of 7 = $4,200,000,000 ÷ 1.8 billion shares on issue = $2.333
( I have always thought that solid Blue Chip stocks trading under 7 pe were a bargain over the the long term).

2, PE 10 = $6 billion÷1.8bill Shares on issue= $3.33 share price

3, PE 25 = $15 billion÷1.8 bill SOI=$8.33 share price.

4, PE 100=$60 billion÷1.8 billion SOI= $33.33 share price.

* Worth noting....
Tesla trading on a PE of 219.92 as of March 2022.
Amazon trading on an estimated PE of 62.64.
Berkshire Hathaway trading on a PE of 29.484 as of march 2022.

Hypothetically if the above automotive derived revenues to BRN was say 30% Of total revenues out of a diverse plethora of revenue streams...
NASA,
Airforce,
Space Force,
Navy,
Armey,
NSA,
CIA,
FBI,
Computer Security private and company,
Flying transporters and Drones,
Civilian air craft,
Cochlear implants,
Heart rate/Blood pressure/Glucose levels etc,
VOC,
Prosthetic limbs,
Vibration - From industrial structures to Heavy rail haulage to motor/ bearings to Dildonics.
Then add the 100 plus things I have forgotten or simply have not come to fruition yet due to not having AKIDA 1,2,3.

So.....

Adding 70% to the above numbers things start to look quite nice.

$600,000,000 (30%)+$1,400,000,000(70%)=$2,000,000,000 per annum Revenues.

1, $2bill x PE 7 =$14billion÷1.8 bill SOI=$7.78 per share.

2, $2bill x PE10=$20 bill÷1.8bill SOI=$11.111 per share.

3, $2bill x PE 25 =$50 bill÷1.8 bill SOI=$27.778 per share.

4, $2bill x PE100=$200bill÷1.8bill SOI= $111.111 per share.

I'm EXCITED.

Regards,
Esq.

WOW .... very nice thanks Esq.111

 

[hotty4040]

Hi SG

Afterpay is an easy one to understand because everyone understands debt or the selling thereof as a way of making money. Even the Bible has Christ doing away with the money lenders.

It is ingrained in us that lending money at excessive rates of interest makes you wealthy but most of us would not dare set up a lending shop and employing muscle to collect but we all know we would make a lot of money if we did. Afterpay made it possible for people to legitimately do this without feelings of guilt.

My late father-in-law had a term 'a licence to print money' which was used by him in respect of the banking industry. So the one thing that never happened because of this was dodgy analysts saying things like "what's a neuromorphic chip anyway" and "if it really worked it would not be on the ASX" etc. They got away with it because in reality no one actually understands technology like they understand debt and making money from selling it. An investment analyst talking about PE ratios just does not create the same panic amongst those who do not make a study of the markets at any depth. Could be wrong but that is my simple explanation.

As for PE ratio's I think they are overrated as any sort of indicator of market sentiment. What Brainchip needs is a big named multinational that every man and his dog has heard of validating AKIDA technology. That validation will come with dollars attached but you only have to look at what the off the cuff validation in a couple of interviews with Mercedes did for the Brainchip share price. Just look at how the German investors reacted. I suspect you will have read a week ago about the share price in Germany going up overnight and it turned out that the ISL agreement had been disclosed over there as if it was fresh news. It took a little while for the fact it was old news to filter through. What this said to me was that the couple of off the cuff remarks by Mercedes drowned out even an official announcement from Brainchip such was the importance to retail investors over there of Mercedes validation.

If we get the ASX announcement that Mercedes has licenced AKIDA IP for use in its vehicles anyone who knows how Mercedes works will know that they will start small and build up with the roll out of the technology. Why do they do this because of how much it costs to recall vehicles. The fewer vehicles the less it costs so Mercedes as a rule rolls out new features/technologies/ideas in the top of the range S Class which is only a couple of million vehicle sales world wide. They iron out all the bugs at this level before trickling it down to the other vehicle classes which get sold in millions of units. It is a very good tried and tested business model that is followed by most of the big players.

There are so many examples not just Afterpay of high value companies where the value of the shares are disconnected to analysts PE ratios. You have no further to look than Tesla to find an absolute investment dog if you judge it on PE ratios but from investors points of view it is a darling.

I have put at least $2.75 by Christmas on Brainchip and I only need two things in my opinion for this to occur and that is for investors to start to see income grow as predicted in the second half of this year which will cement the credibility of management in the markets eyes and one more decent announcement regarding an IP licence to an existing EAP. If my calculations are not off this gives me up to 15 chances of getting one announcement of this kind over the next 9 months. I think personally these are pretty good odds.

Why I think these are pretty good odds is that the CEO Sean Hehir was holding out hope that he could convince two of the EAP's to allow Brainchip to put up their logos. Why was he so specific about the number two? Why did he not say some or be even more general? The reason in my opinion was because there are two EAP's that are on the cusp of coming out and it was his reasoning that they are so close anyway that allowing their logos will not be an issue.

So by hoping for one announcement this side of Christmas I am doubling my chances because in my opinion Sean Hehir has telegraphed there will be two at least.

My opinion only DYOR
FF

AKIDA BALLISTA

Ahhhh, Mcgoo, You are doing it again IMHO. Very screwed ( shrewed I meant ) analysis indeed. Gltai as well.

Hi, from Jabiru, bloody hot here chippers. Alligator/Yellow river tour today, N.B. Won’t be swimming ) …

hotty…