RAD Discussion 2022
- Thread starter zeeb0t
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I have been reading post after post about RAD over at HC and as at 10 minutes ago not a word has been spoken there about what I consider to be a very obvious one and one makes two proposition.
I could not bring myself to post there so here I am in an empty room talking to a blank wall to get this out of my system.
Recently RAD released incredible results for its Pivalate particle which opens up for it a multi billion dollar market in the United States alone.
At the same time RAD also announced a fully underwritten capital raise of $10 million.
Unlike most capital raises this one includes existing shareholders.
The price has dropped to 13 cents a share and given the company a market cap of about $33 million.
Interestingly with cash on hand and the capital raise RAD will have close to $30 million plus its intellectual property which clearly has significant value so some might argue it is in raw terms undervalued in the absence of any further information.
But as the steak knife salesman says ‘but wait there is more’.
As part of the above announcements the CEO and the founder of RAD recorded an investor presentation:
In this investor presentation there are some very interesting facts:
1. Presently there is an unmet need for a cancer agnostic particle that can cross the blood brain barrier and seek out and contrast brain tumours that metastasis from other cancer sites;
2. In the USA alone there are 490,000 patients each year undergoing treatment for a range of cancers that need monitoring of their brains.
3. The results released this week from the Phase 2a trial are considered so impressive by RAD that they are preparing to attend a meeting with the FDA to obtain approval to move straight to Phase 3. next year.
4. When you listen/watch the presentation you will hear in answer to questions that a Phase 3 trial will need to be undertaken in the USA. It will involve recruiting 200 patients from a pool of 490,000 patients. Each patient will cost $50,000 to enrol and process through the trial and 200 x $50,000 is $10 million dollars. The trial will take about 12 months.
5. The capital raise is $10 million and it will provide sufficient additional capital to allow RAD to meet all its expenses to end of 2023.
6. The capital raise involves one free option for each share purchased with a strike price of 20 cents.
7. The worst case scenario is that the FDA will require a further 20 patients on Phase 2 before going to Phase 3. which will add about 6 to 9 months to the time line.
As I said at the outset there is a one plus one equals two being missed over at HC:
1. Phase 3 trial for unmet need $10 million dollars.
2. Capital raise is for precisely $10 million dollars in circumstances where in the absence of running the Phase 3 trial RAD has enough cash in hand to run to end of 2023 already.
Do your own research read all the documents released via the ASX and watch the presentation and see what conclusion you come to about whether RAD is a worthwhile investment.
My opinion only DYOR
FF
I could not bring myself to post there so here I am in an empty room talking to a blank wall to get this out of my system.
Recently RAD released incredible results for its Pivalate particle which opens up for it a multi billion dollar market in the United States alone.
At the same time RAD also announced a fully underwritten capital raise of $10 million.
Unlike most capital raises this one includes existing shareholders.
The price has dropped to 13 cents a share and given the company a market cap of about $33 million.
Interestingly with cash on hand and the capital raise RAD will have close to $30 million plus its intellectual property which clearly has significant value so some might argue it is in raw terms undervalued in the absence of any further information.
But as the steak knife salesman says ‘but wait there is more’.
As part of the above announcements the CEO and the founder of RAD recorded an investor presentation:
In this investor presentation there are some very interesting facts:
1. Presently there is an unmet need for a cancer agnostic particle that can cross the blood brain barrier and seek out and contrast brain tumours that metastasis from other cancer sites;
2. In the USA alone there are 490,000 patients each year undergoing treatment for a range of cancers that need monitoring of their brains.
3. The results released this week from the Phase 2a trial are considered so impressive by RAD that they are preparing to attend a meeting with the FDA to obtain approval to move straight to Phase 3. next year.
4. When you listen/watch the presentation you will hear in answer to questions that a Phase 3 trial will need to be undertaken in the USA. It will involve recruiting 200 patients from a pool of 490,000 patients. Each patient will cost $50,000 to enrol and process through the trial and 200 x $50,000 is $10 million dollars. The trial will take about 12 months.
5. The capital raise is $10 million and it will provide sufficient additional capital to allow RAD to meet all its expenses to end of 2023.
6. The capital raise involves one free option for each share purchased with a strike price of 20 cents.
7. The worst case scenario is that the FDA will require a further 20 patients on Phase 2 before going to Phase 3. which will add about 6 to 9 months to the time line.
As I said at the outset there is a one plus one equals two being missed over at HC:
1. Phase 3 trial for unmet need $10 million dollars.
2. Capital raise is for precisely $10 million dollars in circumstances where in the absence of running the Phase 3 trial RAD has enough cash in hand to run to end of 2023 already.
Do your own research read all the documents released via the ASX and watch the presentation and see what conclusion you come to about whether RAD is a worthwhile investment.
My opinion only DYOR
FF
Thanks Tom,
A lot to get one's head around.
I was interested in the origin of their technology.
RAD have licensed their original 4 antibodies from NanoMab Technologies to develop for human diagnosis and treatment. They are based on Chinese patent applications, all of which are well above my pay grade. It's a similar arrangement to PAB.
From the IPO Prospectus:
https://assets.website-files.com/61...9de4f8_Radiopharm-Theranostics-Prospectus.pdf
9.4 Licence Agreements
NanoMab Technologies Limited
Radiopharm entered into a licence agreement with NanoMab Technologies Limited (NanoMab) on 9 July 2021 as amended on 1 August 2021 and 13 October 2021 (NanoMab Agreement).
Under the terms of the NanoMab Agreement, NanoMab grants to Radiopharm the exclusive, royalty-bearing, world-wide, sub-licensable right to develop and commercialise Anti-HER-2, AntiTROP-2, Anti-PD-L1 and Anti-PTK7 camelid single domain antibodies in the field of human diagnostic and therapeutic uses, subject to the qualification set out below.
The NanoMab Agreement grants Radiopharm rights in the following:
(a) the ‘Anti-HER-2 Nanobody and its nucleic acid coding sequences are the subject of, and are claimed in national Phase entries in each of, China, US, Europe and Japan deriving from International Application Number PCT/CN2018/091953, filed on 20 June 2018 and titled ‘Anti-HER-2 Nanobody and Coding Sequence and Use Thereof’;
(b) the ‘Anti-TROP-2 Nanobody and its nucleic acid coding sequences are the subject of, and are claimed in, a provisional patent application No. CN202110750848.6, filed on 2 July 2021 and titled ‘Anti-TROP-2 Nanobody and Coding Sequence and Use Thereof’;
(c) the Anti-PTK7 Nanobody and its nucleic acid coding sequences are the subject of and are claimed in a Chinese provisional patent application No. 202110950740.1, filed on 18 August 2021 and titled ‘Anti-PTK7 Nanobody and Coding Sequence and Use Thereof’; and
(d) the Anti-PD-L1 Nanobody and its nucleic acid coding sequences are the subject of, and are claimed in, a patent application in each of China and Europe both deriving from PCT application No. PCT/CN2017/077122, filed on 17 March 2017 and titled ‘Anti-PD-L1 Nanobody and Coding Sequence and Use Thereof’ and in a US Patent granted on 11 February 2020,
RAD subsequently obtained outright ownership of 3 of these.
https://assets.website-files.com/61...nership of Radiopharmaceutical Nanobodies.pdf
However, Pivalate is the invention of Prof Eric Aboagye of Imperial College London.
https://assets.website-files.com/61...se 2 data in brain mets trial 18 Oct 2022.pdf
Prof Aboagye has several patent applications which did not progress to grant, but this one did:
US10201625B2 Radiolabelled octreotate analogues as PET tracers
Like PAB, Pivalate and the other antibodies can be conjugated with other chemicals to form X-RAY (PET) targets, as well as therapeutic elements.
It seems Prof Aboagye has been running the clinical trials.
https://assets.website-files.com/61...tober Conference in Barcelona 21 Sep 2022.pdf
It would be interesting to know enough about the science to make meaningful comparisons between, eg, IMU's or PAB's treatments and these therapies.
Fact Finder
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Yes more knowledge would be valuable but what I like about Privalate is that it can find a huge market in the simplest application of its particle.
As fortune (not luck) would have it I also told Allan (AC/DC in the old money) and it was only Thursday that his wife who has been undergoing cancer therapy had a PET Scan as her cancer is one which readily metastasises commonly to the brain and the radiologist was telling Allan that they have very significant difficulty with finding it if it does go to the brain at an early stage and if they find it localising and sizing the tumour.
Kind of cross validation of what is being said on the presentation.
The other thing about having successfully completed 2a it is hugely derisked and worst view an 18 month timeline.
The present price of 13 cents is bargain basement buying.
Regards
Tom
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