PNV Ann: FY23 Results Presentation - 23rd Aug 2023, 12:13pm

[annb0t]

PNV Ann: FY23 Results Presentation
Price Sensitive: Y
Date: 23rd Aug 2023, 12:13pm

>>> Read announcement: Google: PNV Market Announcements

 

[kickit2me]

Projection variations from modelling new data:

Using the model that is fitted to monthly data from inception:

Adding in final Q4FY23 data

Old rate of change: 0.0252
New rate of change: 0.0258

i.e. The rate of growth has accelerated - again - marginally

Old projected BTM sales for FY24 was $78m
New projected BTM sales for FY24 is $79m

New projected BTM sales for FY25 is $103m

New projected BTM sales for Q1FY24 is $18m

i.e. Showing the marginal improvement on rate of growth that Q4FY23 data

Using the model that is fitted to monthly data since Jan 2021

New projected BTM sales for FY24 is $90m

New projected BTM sales for FY25 is $128m

New projected BTM sales for Q1FY24 is $19m


Summary:
1. The rate of growth of growth is still showing an acceleration.
2. Q4FY23 gave only a marginal increase
3. The "since inception" model is a good baseline to check future data against
4. The "since 2021" model is a good upper limit for your imagination
5. These are just BTM (product) sales revenues - they do not include BARDA and OTHER

 

[rbm3]

Hi Kick. Have you done an update to the quarterly revenue graph to inc Q4?

 

[kickit2me]

Projection variations from modelling new data (announced 25th September)

Using the model that is fitted to monthly data from inception:

Adding in July & Aug data

Old rate of change: 0.935
New rate of change: 1.06

i.e. The rate of growth has accelerated - again

Old projected BTM sales for FY24 was $79m
New projected BTM sales for FY24 is $82m

New projected BTM sales for FY25 is $97m

New projected BTM sales for Q1FY24 is $18m (unchanged)

i.e. Showing the marginal improvement on rate of growth that Q4FY23 data

Using the model that is fitted to monthly data since Jan 2021

New projected BTM sales for FY24 is $93m

New projected BTM sales for FY25 is $122m

New projected BTM sales for Q1FY24 is $20m

Here's the latest visual of monthly data:

Summary:
1. The rate of growth of growth is still showing an acceleration.
2. The "since inception" model is a good baseline to check future data against
3. The "since 2021" model is a good upper limit for your imagination
4. These are just BTM (product) sales revenues - they do not include BARDA and OTHER

 

[Lattelarry]

Projection variations from modelling new data (announced 25th September)

Using the model that is fitted to monthly data from inception:

Adding in July & Aug data

Old rate of change: 0.935
New rate of change: 1.06

i.e. The rate of growth has accelerated - again

Old projected BTM sales for FY24 was $79m
New projected BTM sales for FY24 is $82m

New projected BTM sales for FY25 is $97m

New projected BTM sales for Q1FY24 is $18m (unchanged)

i.e. Showing the marginal improvement on rate of growth that Q4FY23 data

Using the model that is fitted to monthly data since Jan 2021

New projected BTM sales for FY24 is $93m

New projected BTM sales for FY25 is $122m

New projected BTM sales for Q1FY24 is $20m

Here's the latest visual of monthly data:

View attachment 46043

Summary:
1. The rate of growth of growth is still showing an acceleration.
2. The "since inception" model is a good baseline to check future data against
3. The "since 2021" model is a good upper limit for your imagination
4. These are just BTM (product) sales revenues - they do not include BARDA and OTHER

Thanks, at the moment it looks like growth is starting to grow beyone the model. It will be interesting to see if this holds till the end of the year.
This would make your $93m more accurate than the 86m or so I'm seeing. Add BARDA and you are up to $105m plus or minus a few mill due to currency.

Also I have $6.2m for July and 6.8 for August - you look like you might have 6.5 for July?

Looks like your prediction and Hapman's might actually match for Q1.

 

[kickit2me]

Thanks, at the moment it looks like growth is starting to grow beyone the model. It will be interesting to see if this holds till the end of the year.
This would make your $93m more accurate than the 86m or so I'm seeing. Add BARDA and you are up to $105m plus or minus a few mill due to currency.

Also I have $6.2m for July and 6.8 for August - you look like you might have 6.5 for July?

Looks like your prediction and Hapman's might actually match for Q1.

Yep $6.5m for July.
Using a two way table you can break down the information to the monthly values, 6.5 & 6.8 Sales, 0.7 and 0.9 BARDA.

 

[Lattelarry]

Yep $6.5m for July.
Using a two way table you can break down the information to the monthly values, 6.5 & 6.8 Sales, 0.7 and 0.9 BARDA.

I was going off this from the announcement:

and

Which leaves an extra $300k from somewhere - which could be term deposit?