krugerrands
Regular
Starting this thread with a bit of a brain dump.
Some information may be stale and other posters correcting thoughts and figures are welcome!
MYX has languished at this price level for close on 2 years now for the unfortunate stockholders, big opportunity cost even for those that bought in at the low a few years ago.
Is this a possible turnaround play?
There are lots of negativity around the stock especially from investors that bought in ~2016 @ $2.
But even negative emotions have run out of steam and all has gone quiet around this stock.
It looks like investors got carried away at the time in 2016 - the gross profit was only 170m and net profit only 37m....is that worth a $2b market cap?
2017 saw gross profit and net profit double, despite this the share price halved, what were people expecting??!
In 2016 there was lots of hype at the time around MYX buying a generics portfolio from TEVA/Allergan.
At the same time TEVA really messed up as well with their timing buying ~$40B of product from Allergan.
The generics market changed, these portfolios could not deliver on expected revenues and both companies have been having huge write downs as a result.
This started to gather momentum around 2018.
MYX has been pivoting away from generics and has been amortising the generic portofio with huge yearly write downs.
The execution of this pivot shows in half yearly results in terms of revenue with gross revenue of 54% from generics in 1HFY19 and to 23% in 1HFY21.
At year end 2021 the remaining "intangible" assets was ~A$615.81m down from the peak of A$1,177.22m in 2017.
At last count of this A$600m
Principally would be gNuvaRing ( MyRing ) from partner Mithra.
Costs to date is EUR 2.4M and another EUR 10M due on FDA approval / commercialization.
~A$20M at the end of the day to compete in the contraceptive ring space which is a $US900M a year market.
In March 2018 when the filing to the FDA happened there were NO generic competitors and they expectd to reach the market in 2019.
It is now 2022 and this product is still not commercialized.
Since then other companies have entered the market
Amneal, which did in fact launch their EluRyng in Dec 2019 already reported in their 2020 Full year net revenue for new launches "$214 million, which included EluRyng and Sucralfate Oral Suspension".
Because of the poor communication it is not known if the FDA is protecting other players by delaying approval or if the Mithra partner facilities/product was not up to scratch and if the filing was not up to scratch... the mystery continues.
And it is possible that the reason cannot be communicated... if it is the FDA what do you say? And you can't make your partner look bad either.
In 2020, Mithra launched its contraceptive vaginal ring Myring® in several European countries:
The last information gleened from Mithra themselves is that approval is "end of 2021-beginning of 2022".
With the latest CRL response done to the FDA in March 2021.
Well here we are beginning 2022 and not a peep.....
At this stage Mayne would be the 4th entrant and whilst it will still be profitable it is not as good as it would have been entering in 2019.. like they planned and like Amneal actually did.
Next big ticket golden goose product is Nextstellis.
The rights to commercialized this in US cost Mayne
US$3.6 billion in sales according to IQVIA for the 12-month period ending January 2021.
The brand market for CHCs represent 56% of the value.
Top four products being
There is provision for contingency payments for around US$112.5m net sales per year of Nextellis on the Mayne books as at last full year results.
Mayne has not provided any forward looking statements but said that the planned ~3 year ramp-up to $200m a year net sales is on target at last AGM.
Operating expenses expected to be ~25% of peak net sales
Margin on generics is ~30% and on specialty products is ~80%
The conservative US$200 net sales target gives us a range of US$60M - US$160M on those profit margins.
25% operating expense US$50M.
Net profit of US$10-110M ( A$13 - 144M )
At 10% discount rate the present value is A$110m at constant A$13M over next 20 years ....
or
present value A$936m at constant A$144M per year.
This is a rough calculation which sees A$0.54 per share NPV for Nextstellis alone.
The current share price is ~A$0.27.
With low hype, low expectation and the share price repressed for many months this may be a good time to enter.
Some information may be stale and other posters correcting thoughts and figures are welcome!
MYX has languished at this price level for close on 2 years now for the unfortunate stockholders, big opportunity cost even for those that bought in at the low a few years ago.
Is this a possible turnaround play?
There are lots of negativity around the stock especially from investors that bought in ~2016 @ $2.
But even negative emotions have run out of steam and all has gone quiet around this stock.
It looks like investors got carried away at the time in 2016 - the gross profit was only 170m and net profit only 37m....is that worth a $2b market cap?
2017 saw gross profit and net profit double, despite this the share price halved, what were people expecting??!
In 2016 there was lots of hype at the time around MYX buying a generics portfolio from TEVA/Allergan.
At the same time TEVA really messed up as well with their timing buying ~$40B of product from Allergan.
The generics market changed, these portfolios could not deliver on expected revenues and both companies have been having huge write downs as a result.
This started to gather momentum around 2018.
MYX has been pivoting away from generics and has been amortising the generic portofio with huge yearly write downs.
The execution of this pivot shows in half yearly results in terms of revenue with gross revenue of 54% from generics in 1HFY19 and to 23% in 1HFY21.
At year end 2021 the remaining "intangible" assets was ~A$615.81m down from the peak of A$1,177.22m in 2017.
At last count of this A$600m
- Only ~A$170 total is in the generic ( GPD - * ) CGU - which allegedly are recoverable.
- Current investments into Nexstellis intangible value falls under "SPD Women's Health" CGU.
Principally would be gNuvaRing ( MyRing ) from partner Mithra.
Costs to date is EUR 2.4M and another EUR 10M due on FDA approval / commercialization.
~A$20M at the end of the day to compete in the contraceptive ring space which is a $US900M a year market.
In March 2018 when the filing to the FDA happened there were NO generic competitors and they expectd to reach the market in 2019.
It is now 2022 and this product is still not commercialized.
Since then other companies have entered the market
Amneal, which did in fact launch their EluRyng in Dec 2019 already reported in their 2020 Full year net revenue for new launches "$214 million, which included EluRyng and Sucralfate Oral Suspension".
Because of the poor communication it is not known if the FDA is protecting other players by delaying approval or if the Mithra partner facilities/product was not up to scratch and if the filing was not up to scratch... the mystery continues.
And it is possible that the reason cannot be communicated... if it is the FDA what do you say? And you can't make your partner look bad either.
In 2020, Mithra launched its contraceptive vaginal ring Myring® in several European countries:
- in Germany ( April ), the largest European market and the second largest in the world,
- in Italy, fourth largest market in the world,
- in Austria, Belgium ( Feb ), Denmark and the Netherlands.
The last information gleened from Mithra themselves is that approval is "end of 2021-beginning of 2022".
With the latest CRL response done to the FDA in March 2021.
Well here we are beginning 2022 and not a peep.....
At this stage Mayne would be the 4th entrant and whilst it will still be profitable it is not as good as it would have been entering in 2019.. like they planned and like Amneal actually did.
Next big ticket golden goose product is Nextstellis.
The rights to commercialized this in US cost Mayne
- ~US$19.75 in cash
- 9.6% in equity as payment to Mithra
- Mithra nominated board seat.
- Cost of marketing and commercialization ( US$10m launch cost in 2h2021 )
US$3.6 billion in sales according to IQVIA for the 12-month period ending January 2021.
The brand market for CHCs represent 56% of the value.
Top four products being
- NUVARING contraceptive ring with US$960 million in annual sales
- LO LOESTRIN®FE oral contraceptive with US$800 million ( closest competitor for Nextstellis in terms of market and cost )
- XULANE®contraceptive patch with US$290 million
- TAYTULLA®oral contraceptive with US$170 million in annual sales
There is provision for contingency payments for around US$112.5m net sales per year of Nextellis on the Mayne books as at last full year results.
Mayne has not provided any forward looking statements but said that the planned ~3 year ramp-up to $200m a year net sales is on target at last AGM.
Operating expenses expected to be ~25% of peak net sales
Margin on generics is ~30% and on specialty products is ~80%
The conservative US$200 net sales target gives us a range of US$60M - US$160M on those profit margins.
25% operating expense US$50M.
Net profit of US$10-110M ( A$13 - 144M )
At 10% discount rate the present value is A$110m at constant A$13M over next 20 years ....
or
present value A$936m at constant A$144M per year.
This is a rough calculation which sees A$0.54 per share NPV for Nextstellis alone.
The current share price is ~A$0.27.
With low hype, low expectation and the share price repressed for many months this may be a good time to enter.
- New Chairman of the board
- New board members.
- gNuvaring ( MyRing ) may finally be commercialized.
- Nextstellis sales.
- 9.6% stakeholder in Mithra
- Friday, 25 February 2022 - Half Year Results for Mayne
- 8 March 2022 - Full year results from Mithra
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