Nostromo77
Emerged
Starting off a Dw8 Discussion thread... we don’t have it too bad over on hotcrapper compared to brn but still good to have a new forum for a breath of fresh air! enjoy!
DW8 Discussion 2022
- Thread starter Nostromo77
- Start date
@Steve10 great to have you hear, advocate of your in-depth analysis on DW8. Ive been a holder for quite some time. Average down over the last 10 months. DW8 has a strong future with its unique tech. Next 2 quarters should see some strong revenue for the company. Looking forward to some more in depth analysis in the future. Cheers
Steve10
Regular
DW8 has grown revenue very fast the past 12 months similar to BET.
Both companies SP was at about x5 revenue run rate, however, BET has started to move up rapidly the past week.
Only a matter of time now until DW8 starts moving rapidly.
I have reviewed Morningstar's fair value estimate of 12c & they are using a trailing twelve month revenue multiple of x30.
Current MC = $111.06M - $12M cash = $99.06M / $10.228M TTM revenue = x9.7.
At 12c SP MC = $317.32M - $12M cash = $305.32M / $10.228M TTM revenue = x29.9.
The above is calculating FV using TTM revenue & not revenue run rate so is more accurate.
The lowest quarter in the current TTM is Q3 FY21 with only $768k revenue. This will drop off next quarter & the lowest quarter will then be Q4 FY21 with only $1.02M revenue.
Based on the above x30 TTM multiple for FV estimate the SP is as follows:
Current FV = 12c
After Q3 FY22 = 17.5c
After Q4 FY22 = 24c
After Q1 FY23 = 30c
After Q2 FY23 = 35c
The above SP estimates also fit timing wise with the round bottom chart pattern.
Today may possibly be pipped at close down to 4.1c but we should receive confirmation tomorrow that NDC has settled & $4.6M cash is in the bank. RSI is approaching oversold so sooner or later SP will bounce.
Both companies SP was at about x5 revenue run rate, however, BET has started to move up rapidly the past week.
Only a matter of time now until DW8 starts moving rapidly.
I have reviewed Morningstar's fair value estimate of 12c & they are using a trailing twelve month revenue multiple of x30.
Current MC = $111.06M - $12M cash = $99.06M / $10.228M TTM revenue = x9.7.
At 12c SP MC = $317.32M - $12M cash = $305.32M / $10.228M TTM revenue = x29.9.
The above is calculating FV using TTM revenue & not revenue run rate so is more accurate.
The lowest quarter in the current TTM is Q3 FY21 with only $768k revenue. This will drop off next quarter & the lowest quarter will then be Q4 FY21 with only $1.02M revenue.
Based on the above x30 TTM multiple for FV estimate the SP is as follows:
Current FV = 12c
After Q3 FY22 = 17.5c
After Q4 FY22 = 24c
After Q1 FY23 = 30c
After Q2 FY23 = 35c
The above SP estimates also fit timing wise with the round bottom chart pattern.
Today may possibly be pipped at close down to 4.1c but we should receive confirmation tomorrow that NDC has settled & $4.6M cash is in the bank. RSI is approaching oversold so sooner or later SP will bounce.
Nostromo77
Emerged
Steve10
Regular
Risk vs Reward
How low can SP possibly go now? 4c? Maybe high 3c's?
So SP has at most about 10% downside.
How high can SP possibly go after 12 months? 10c? 20c? 30c?
Worst case SP should get to 10c in 12 months which equates to 132.6% upside.
10% downside risk for 132.6% upside is a no brainer.
Yet the buyers preferred to by at 10c+ during last year's SP run.
Watch the buyers pile on at 10c+ again sometime this year.
How low can SP possibly go now? 4c? Maybe high 3c's?
So SP has at most about 10% downside.
How high can SP possibly go after 12 months? 10c? 20c? 30c?
Worst case SP should get to 10c in 12 months which equates to 132.6% upside.
10% downside risk for 132.6% upside is a no brainer.
Yet the buyers preferred to by at 10c+ during last year's SP run.
Watch the buyers pile on at 10c+ again sometime this year.
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