Just read the report, and they do seem to have a very good handle on talga. The best thing is, they do not seem to include Talnode-Si in their valuation. Which means, when it hits, it's gonna hit hard, in addition to the $2.35 (I assume US $) they have as their price target.
Also they assume financing of A$350M equity, which is likely not gonna happen. If we get project equity, it might have less impact and no dilution (though reduction of profits) and if we get the €70M/A$110M grant it's even less. So when straightening out their assumptions, there is a lot of additional upside to their valuation.
One statement that I disagree with is that the re-rating of talga will happen immediately after granting the permit. I think it will take until offtakes at least and possibly until financing to get the re-rating going. Look at PLL, lithium miner, that just got it's license. It rose 40% on the news and then dropped back 25% the next day to a total of 5% increase (it's funny how these percentages work and never add up). Makro wasn't favorable but when is it ever? I am not saying that the same will happen to TLG, but it's not a given that we rise unobstructed to the 2.35 valuation of Bell Potter.
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I agree with you.
I myself have hardly any expectations in the short term, I haven't been interested in that for a longer time.
Once the first 100 trucks have been unloaded in Lulea it will begin to be interesting for me personally.
I often have to remind myself that I only went to the ASX with one wish. I wanted to find a startup (pre revenue) that I could follow for years and at some point look back on the journey behind. And of course it should be something that interests me and is useful.
When I opened my first portfolio back then, Google, Microsoft, IBM, Intel, Amazon and Telekom were still tiny. Many years later, I thought to myself - if only I had. You know the story, I've told my motives often enough.
The only really interesting goal for me is that the company I invested in reaches an international size and then, in view of the really nice SP then, I can say to myself, yes, I was there from the ~beginning. And when I'll then tell acquaintances my entry price, their jaws drop.
Joking aside. I've always wanted to follow a special startup all the way. Now I have three pearls in my bag and I'm letting them grow.
So I have a completely different horizon than probably many others.
Unfortunately, I didn't see the launch 10a ago. But the last few years have already been gruelling and exciting enough. I could have done without a lot.
Especially the disillusionment with the mental attitude of parts of society.
So I'm thinking of a time when the Talga Group will have subsidiaries in Sweden, Germany, UK, France, USA, Korea and perhaps Japan.
