AVZ Discussion 2022
- Thread starter GazDix
- Start date
obe wan
Regular
I'm pretty confident on ML dropping this week.....on the 1st now ; but I reckon management will be hoping this dathomir shit has zero legs...if Dathomir does gain percentages ; something along the lines of my post above may come into play , but also what we have, is...if this case gets through and is positive for Dathomir and because this case is an appeal ( and even if these two cases were as corrupt as hell) , in the eyes of asx it will only be seen as a proven case and so proving that the original case was proven to have merit and true even though at the time, where it seems it was just disregarded by management...ASX and a bus load of shareholders I reckon will start to drag out and bang the non disclosure banners.
Hopefully it doesn't have any legs.
So the "it's all sorted " ," AVZ 75% secured" ramblings by a few on here recently can be disregarded for the time being it would seem . We still don't know if we hold 75% or 60% , and the FROR Comminere 15% is not in the safe hands of AVZ yet either . I'm not sure how a ML can be awarded if a corrupt judge sides with Dathomir and the CATH deal still remains unchanged at this point giving us 36% . I don't trust any of these f-kers (CATH included ).
Winenut
Go AVZ!
With regard to potentially dropping out of the ASX200 has anyone got the definitive source as to the reason AVZ cannot remain on the list if it is in voluntary suspension?
I have been trying to identify specifically what triggers AVZ potentially dropping out of the index
I have found no reference that directly says companies with a status of "suspended" cannot be included
The best I have been able to deduce is that AVZ because the the shares cannot be traded currently would fail the "liquidity" requirement for inclusion in the index
Is anyone able to confirm that I am on the right track on the liquidity requirement or is there something specific about the "suspended" status I have not been able to find yet?
I have been trying to identify specifically what triggers AVZ potentially dropping out of the index
I have found no reference that directly says companies with a status of "suspended" cannot be included
The best I have been able to deduce is that AVZ because the the shares cannot be traded currently would fail the "liquidity" requirement for inclusion in the index
Is anyone able to confirm that I am on the right track on the liquidity requirement or is there something specific about the "suspended" status I have not been able to find yet?
Mate do we actually know CATH will be happy to renegotiate and take a lower percentage ? Play it AVZ's way ? Do AVZ have a back up plan just in case CATH make things difficult ? Some have said previously without CATH , it's $240mil the ML wont happen . I don't want to be a downer here but if Dathmoir successfully steal this 15% the potential for the wheels to fall off AVZ's wagon is real . I'm expecting AVZ to prevail .Stickshift was correct on the other channel ; the asx 200 rebalance list is actually on the 2nd I.e first Friday on the month ; I had it down as the 1st , so we really would have needed to be by (before ) that date ; so yes the 1st ; which is obviously before the 2nd; is the cut .
This CAT date which was oddly 30 sept whilst our date was 1st…. Looking at that 4 week period and how this court case has seemed to just come out of nowhere ; but in reality it hasn’t as these things take time to arrange … I reckon that 4 weeks was dropped in there to allow for possibly renegotiation should Dathomir come away with something pre ROFR percentages.
There always seemed to be gossip / those in the know about cominiere ; but no one could seem to shed light onto dathomir situation ; so much so, that it was just disregarded .At this stage it would appear that the ML could be announced irrgardless of the outcome here , as even a Dathmoir 15% wouldn’t take AVZ down to sub 50%….in the case of a dathomir win, A 15% win is highly unlikely , as it was broken into an earlier 5% and followed later on by the 10%; that 10% if they were to be successful would likely be the figure ….. of course then that 4 week period would likely become a time for reneg with CAT ; but what are the cards being dealt then ? ….. ( without ROFR % in play ) CAT would be down to 14% for AVZ to retain 51%….. then we have higher spod pricing and ML in hand …. AVZ would be needing to pull some percentage from the ROFR I reckon to get CAT back to into the 20s ; I’m not sure they’d be happy with 14% and paying higher $$ for it.
Anyway they couldn’t get this case switched to Kinshasa ; we were stuck with Lubumbashi which isn’t the preferred spot to have a judge ( even this new one ) hanging around waiting to make a decision imo ; hopefully he can resist the brown bags bouncing off his bedroom window in the dead of the night or coffee time phone calls .
At this stage, with this court case going on , I reckon best thing is to do even if ML was in Nigel’s pocket right now , would be to delay any announcement until the 1st ; cutting it very fine now ; but this thing hanging in the wind , (whether many seem to know about it or not as it certainly hasn’t been broadcasted in market channels ) would likely cause some headwinds or if we announced ML say today or tomowow and then a negative ann came out after the case , then we have just pissed in the wind .
Waiting to see what the judge comes out with and holding any Ann’s off until Thursday is the best in any case ; positive news and we are go ; negative dathmoir news and they massage it with good ML and Zijin Gonski news .
Having Simon Cong / Dathomir back on board …. Now that would be ironic for sure ; …. Imagine he then sold his percentage to Zijin …. Have a wrecked anyones head yet. AVZ then pays out top offer for Cominieres 15% gives Cat 10 and we end up with AVZ 56% , Zijin 10% , CAT 24% , DRC 10% … enjoy your coffee and morning thoughts
LOCKY82
Regular
Ramblings by a few!? Mate I welcome any potential info and anyone that has a source should be encouraged to share in my book!! Not snarky little comments about what has or hasn't been on the money. I certainly don't have an connections with info and I'm sure most of the rest of us don't. Let's not shoot messenger when we have f*#k all Intel ourselves.
Here's hoping for good news in the coming weeks!!
obe wan
Regular
I'm told by a reputable source that they'll stay in due to the circumstances of this particular case (i.e. suspension and performance over the previous 6 months) ; but if they are not trading once that list drops into the fax machine, then they are 100% out
Good post Locky, any rumours on here are better than nothing and certainly better than the company is giving us.Ramblings by a few!? Mate I welcome any potential info and anyone that has a source should be encouraged to share in my book!! Not snarky little comments about what has or hasn't been on the money. I certainly don't have an connections with info and I'm sure most of the rest of us don't. Let's not shoot messenger when we have f*#k all Intel ourselves.
Here's hoping for good news in the coming weeks!!
Yep I agree . Not being snarky . Just questioning after such intel repeatedly falls short . I hear so called intel as well but I wouldn't post it here because it can't be proved and I don't want blow smoke up share holders arse's . I love good news like the rest of us but if I want to question it then that's what i'll do. I don't put my head in the sand .Ramblings by a few!? Mate I welcome any potential info and anyone that has a source should be encouraged to share in my book!! Not snarky little comments about what has or hasn't been on the money. I certainly don't have an connections with info and I'm sure most of the rest of us don't. Let's not shoot messenger when we have f*#k all Intel ourselves.
Here's hoping for good news in the coming weeks!!
LOCKY82
Regular
You do you bro
obe wan
Regular
agree, I've read a number of comments on these threads and FWIW, they've been surprisingly bang on with what's appear to be the feedback....obviously they haven't panned out.... But at that point in time they were on the ball and I reckon the horse himself would have given the same feedback only to be frustratingly sent back to the waiting room; so there's been some pretty accurate info.....but probably less inclined to comment due to DRC political bumper car actions knocking things suddenly off course and then the threat of pineapples because all of a sudden, the information wasn't correct...Ramblings by a few!? Mate I welcome any potential info and anyone that has a source should be encouraged to share in my book!! Not snarky little comments about what has or hasn't been on the money. I certainly don't have an connections with info and I'm sure most of the rest of us don't. Let's not shoot messenger when we have f*#k all Intel ourselves.
Here's hoping for good news in the coming weeks!!
Samus
Top 20
"So the "it's all sorted " ," AVZ 75% secured" ramblings by a few on here recently can be disregarded for the time being it would seem ."
I would say to make that assessment we would need to know exactly what the current appeal is about and who's doing the appealing. This is what is unclear atm unless somebody can shed any light on it.
To say 75% is all sorted would mean that there has been a prior ruling in AVZ's favour regards Dathomir/mmcs issues.
AVZ management must think it's not that important otherwise they would/should inform SH .
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